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Everything posted by Provost
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That simply isn’t true at all. The brightest minds in hockey analytics have shown in different studies that zone starts have no impact on Corsi. If you don’t want to read this, the summary is that even just taking the players with the most extreme zone starts disparities, less than 5% of them have a more than 1% difference in Corsi when adjusted for zone starts. https://hockeyviz.com/static/pdf/rithac.pdf Also, Myers has had exactly 10 more defensive zone starts this season than offensive zone starts at 5v5 (73 vs. 63) which is what the dZone start % reflects. That is slightly more than a single shift every 4 games (0.27 shifts a game). You can throw away every comment you made comparing a stat to his dZone starts because it represents virtually nothing at all. It doesn't affect Corsi or other stats because it doesn't reflect more than a fraction of a shift per game.
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Florida now isn’t the organization of a few years ago. They are a playoff team looking to make noise. They don’t want to downgrade their roster to save a few bucks. They are almost certainly trying to make cap space to add a piece for a playoff run.
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Seven years without a clear plan from Canucks brass.
Provost replied to appleboy's topic in Canucks Talk
That wasn’t the question, you literally just invented that. If you wouldn’t trade Petterson for Ehlers AND Tkachuk (which was the post).... then that would explain why no one has ever called you to be an NHL GM, because every one of them makes that deal. -
Seven years without a clear plan from Canucks brass.
Provost replied to appleboy's topic in Canucks Talk
I put out various draft lists at the time and who we would have ended up with based on all the other major draft lists and BPA when we picked. It was in a couple of threads about drafting. Benning came out above average, but worse than some of the others... so ya, most of our draft success is based on how bad we have been for so long and how high we have been drafting. The only clear "winner" that Benning picked over almost everyone else was Petterson. Hughes and Boeser would have been picked by most lists where they were selected. On the other side guys like Nylander, Tkachuk, Ehlers, Pastrnak, etc were on those other lists that we missed on with Virtanen and Juolevi. Just listening to a guy like Craig Button who isn't paid by any team to scout and is a TV talking head, we end up with: 2014 - Ehlers, Kempe 2015 - Boeser 2016 - Tkachuk 2017 - Glass 2018 - Hughes I think Petterson is great, but no one is trading both Ehlers and Tkachuk for him. -
Seven years without a clear plan from Canucks brass.
Provost replied to appleboy's topic in Canucks Talk
You forgot: 4. Make a bunch of bad acquisitions 5. Get the team into cap trouble 6. Be worse after 7 years than we started -
Ya, or again one of those cap going the other way deals. If they would take Roussel going the other way then we could find a way to make it work. The issue is really why Florida is waiving Stralman. He is a good player for them at half the price too. I can only imagine that they are actually trying to clear cap to make a big add for the playoffs. It doesn’t really make much sense otherwise. If they had a trade in place with a team that he wouldn’t waive to, waivers clears up that problem as he doesn’t get to say no anymore. If they are hoping to have someone pick him up to create cap space, we aren’t a good partner for them.
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It is tough to figure the next contracts for our "big three"... but they almost certainly have to be bridge deals. The part that can't really be argued is that no one is considering Jake a big sweetener, he would be tough to move on his own. In my mind Petterson and Hughes are going to sign matching deals for around a 3 year deal for $6.5-7.5 million each. Demko is probably around $4.0-4.5 million on a bridge deal... probably signed so it doesn't expire the same year as the other two. Goalies with almost no resume don't sign for $6 million or more.
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They overpaid for him, but he is still a really good defenceman. With a little salary retained, I can imagine that he would be a good target for some team on the cheap. I can only assume that they are hoping someone takes him on waivers before making that sort of deal? Do they want to move him to a team not on his modified NTC list and he is resisting?
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The reason I keep Hughes is that even his defence doesn’t come around, it is really easy to find a complementary partner to cover those warts. A sturdy defensive D is common enough that they don’t cost a ton. Even a low end guy like Luke Schenn looked good beside Hughes. Tanev of last year wasn’t the elite shutdown guy he was a few years ago, but was still a perfect complement. Heck, if Tryamkin shows he can actually play in the league, he is built to be a Hughes partner. Same with Woo. Whoever is the partner for Hughes isn’t going to need to have to play that many minutes because they won’t be on the PP with him and will have fewer 5v5 minutes. Hughes in his prime will play 22-25 minutes a game and his partner will play 18-20. I have been harping on the Ristolainen drum for a long time as a target from Buffalo, it is probably too late now as he is showing the last couple years he is a top pairing guy.... much like a RHD version of Edler.
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Pronman's new rankings just moved Luke Hughes from #8 to #1. I think you are right that in a year where they haven't seen many kids play, the "idea" of a 6'2" version of Quinn Hughes is pretty compelling. Obviously it would be an amazing move to find a way to get him wherever he is drafted. Even if it meant giving up our later 1st as part of a deal (maybe not Miller plus our 1st unless we were getting 1st overall back). It could pay dividends in keeping Quinn in the fold and at a reasonable price tag. Assuming he would want to be playing with his little brother and helping him get adjusted. Making that move before the BOG decides what to do with the draft could pay dividends because it is still entirely possible they delay the draft until next summer because most of the kids just haven't played in a year. I doubt they will do that, but the governors want it, they all laid off their scouting staff a year ago and I don't know how many are back working. An extra year of intelligence would make that pick more valuable.
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Yep... altogether possible we have to add. If Buffalo ends up with 1st overall for sure... but if they are picking #5, maybe it is fair as it is. I put a proposal in another thread that included Virtanen as an example. Part of the valuation is Buffalo is about to implode so they need to entirely retool their roster or start a new rebuild. We paid a mid 1st for Miller when he was a bottom 6 winger on Tampa... he doubled his output since so his value should be higher.
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I do that deal, but not sure Buffalo does. My Buffalo blockbuster is: Miller Virtanen for Ristolainen Buffalo’s 2021 1st unprotected They get a linemate for Eichel, and ease their expansion protection issue on D. They give up a player who has wanted out of there and been trade bait for a long time up until this year. They also give up a potential 1st overall, but they need to be better now, not a couple years from now. There is no consensus #1 this year so it may be easier to let go of than most years
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For me, Motte will be one of our VERY FEW cap efficient contracts next season. It doesn't make sense to move him unless that move comes along with some extra cap flexibility on another front by having a cap dump included. I don't see how that would work though as he isn't a player that would be value that highly around the league. As for the team having tons to offer, I think the presumed caveat is that it wouldn't be any of our better players/prospects. That list is pretty short though. Petterson, Hughes, Demko, Horvat, Boeser, Hoglander, Podkolzin Really anyone else is moveable at the right price. If someone was to offer us a 1st and a real blue chip prospect/young player for Miller... I would probably do it. Like if Buffalo said they would trade Ristolainen and their unprotected 1st for Miller... how do you say no to that? They have much less use for a 1st round pick (even a 1st overall possibly) than they do immediate help. They resolve any Seattle expansion issues on D and give Eichel a top end linemate. We get an excellent pick which means we could then even use our (presumably later) 1st round as currency to ditch some salary for next year.
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I agree... but the difference in value probably isn’t that much. A lower level prospect or really late pick.
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Hmmm methinks that.....
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haha... keep digging there brother. If Jake was from Finland, his parents were from Finland, he spoke Finnish, identified as Finnish as well as Canadian, and had played for years in the Finnish leagues... ya I would call him Finnish. That is kind of how it works... It is quite lame and sad of you to ignore all the actual facts and try to focus on just his name to make some weird straw man argument. I literally provided you a video of Komarov helping out a new Russian player EXACTLY like I said he could help out Tryamkin and Podkolzin.... and you are still flailing around trying to pivot, backtrack, change the goalposts, etc. The proper words you are looking for are: ”Yes Provost, you were right.” ... or just let it drop and fade away as other comments bury it. Doubling down on your nonsense after being showed actual video evidence proving you are spouting nonsense is ludicrous.
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So you started arguing with me about something you were wrong about and I am the insufferable twit? He would certainly help Tryamkin and Podkolzin just like I said. His parents were Russian, he is a Russian, he holds a Russian passport, he speaks and in his words “dreams” in Russian, he has a Russian name, he spent years playing in the KHL.... but according to you, you would be as much use culturally? That is pure nonsense. He was born in Estonia (part of the Soviet Union at the time) but doesn’t speak Estonian or have an Estonian passport, and was raised for many years in Finland because his dad got a job there and had some Finnish ancestry (when he speaks with his Dad he speaks in Russian). Also being Finnish doesn’t make him “not Russian” and not able to help out the new players from Russia like you are suggesting. I hold dual passports and both places are home. Here is an extra little fun piece for you. You might recognize the player translating an interview to/from Russian for a young Russian player new to the NHL. hmmm.... he seems to be helping that Russian kid, very much like I suggested he could do for our couple of Russian kids and you are vociferously denying.... but hey, don’t let facts get in the way of your ranting.
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Yes a Russian. A big chunk of the Estonian population are Russians... including Komarov’s parents. Komarov holds dual Russian-Finnish passports. You know that you can actually Google stuff before disagreeing with people on things you don’t know? This is probably the reason your team is terrible, as one of its top players you don’t pay much attention to detail.
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He moved to Finland as a kid. He from Estonia which was in the Soviet Union. He speaks Russian, Finnish, Swedish, and English.
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If we can swap money around that seems like a decent idea. No way we should take him if there isn’t equal money going out. Otherwise, not much point. I still think Pearson would be a fit there so if we swapped Roussel and Pearson for Komarov and a decent pick/prospect I would do that deal. We get Komarov’s PKing and utility as a guy who can play all three forward positions. Not too shabby an idea to have a fellow Russian or two next year to transition Podkolzin and Tryamkin easier. A bit of Russian mafia to go with the Swedish mafia. Young players could certainly learn something from Komarov’s style of play. I suspect the Islanders want to make deals to free up money for a run at Hall though, so may not want our type of deal.