Jump to content
The Official Site of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Community

Provost

Members
  • Posts

    11,729
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    3

Everything posted by Provost

  1. It seems like a good trading partner. Don't mind which player it would be. I would actually take Gudas and a decent pick or prospect as well.
  2. Ok, will there be anyone left to trade? It seems as if everyone who we would want to move is going to be hurt. Be careful Benn!! I can only hope that the injuries are short enough that they are back before the deadline or long enough that the player could be limped to the end of the regular season on LTIR/Conditioning but be good for the playoffs so that a completely cap strapped team could add them without having to fit them in
  3. Even if he was expiring I don’t think it is a move we should make. We need to preserve any Cap space for any deadline moved which may require us to take money back.
  4. Canucks claim Travis Boyd. Hmmmm. Canucks claim Boyd off waivers from Leafs https://www.tsn.ca/1.1611564.1616439790
  5. I don’t know that he drops as far as us in any regard. We have climbed to only 10th worst in winning %. It seems like Toronto fans think he will be picked up and is just a casualty of a deep roster and cap issues. They are running with less than a 23 man roster and he would make their full roster if they were running with the extra bodies.
  6. From Toronto Cheap two-way 4th line centre, decent numbers. I think this guy gets picked up by someone for sure. If we were moving Sutter out, he is a good fill-in replacement. Otherwise, even some contenders could look to pick this guy up for insurance. Maple Leafs place F Boyd on waivers https://www.tsn.ca/1.1611157.1616343400
  7. Ya, I just wasn’t sure how the suggestion presented worked for helping us get to the playoffs. The entire issue is that these teams we are chasing play each other a lot coming up so are going to get points. Scenarios where just one of them fall off the pace don’t really help us. While our team is doing its part, the teams ahead of us are almost all playing right around .500 or above and spreading the points between them pretty evenly. That makes it almost impossible to catch up. We need two of them to do play badly. The teams we need to catch up to are 6-8 games above .500, we have crawled back to .500 but need to gain the rest in only 21 games.
  8. If Calgary beats Montreal for their 5 games... how do you plan on catching Calgary? It doesn’t do us any good for one team to fall apart if it is giving up points to another team we have to catch?
  9. That is definitely the worry. I would love for us to make the playoffs. I would hate for us to win just enough to not pick in the top 10 while missing the playoffs. It clearly isn’t our year. Of course our best rental asset is now out on LTIR, so that is about our luck.
  10. Different night. I was watching that game in a friends apartment in the West End. I entirely disagree with it being fine until the police showed up. We saw what was happening and had to get from near Stanley Park to Granville to meet a friend and get out of dodge. We saw police at Robson and Thurlow (I think) repeatedly push people back and they just kept coming forward again. Everyone had many chances to leave, like we did.... but more just kept pouring into downtown to cause trouble.
  11. So those are a lot of words to say that you don’t actually have anything of substance to provide, just more diatribe. What exactly was “ mathematically unreasonable” about my OP or ensuring posts? Providing the actual math is unreasonable? The playoffs weren’t likely out of reach? The playoffs didn’t get even farther out of reach after the OP? Those are objective facts. Come on, I keep giving you opportunities to actually back up anything you are saying... you refuse to, presumably because you just enjoy going on tirades and don’t care about objective reality. When I started this thread, the most generous models said between 10-17% chance to make the playoffs. Those were bad odds, exactly what I said. Since then (despite an 8-2 run that has suddenly got everyone hot and bothered again), our chances are even less at between 5-12.6%. Many folks got onboard and acknowledged our extremely poor playoff odds were true, some folks are getting off again with a winning streak. The truth is we were always going to win some games and lose some games, the net change in odds just had to be really big, and it hasn’t (as predicted by the math and me). So ya, the playoffs were likely out of reach and are still out of reach. Have a good day.
  12. Ok sparky... just like you aggressively going nuts now, it has been folks attacking me because they can’t attack the facts I presented. I occasionally responded in kind. I won’t bother responding in kind to you because you have provided zero substance to any of your posts other than you are angry and on full tilt.
  13. I was at the game where we won that series. I was sitting two rows behind The Barenaked Ladies (the band, not actual naked ladies). They were decked out in their Leafs gear and were being drunken obnoxious Leafs fans “kind of” in fun. They took a serious razzing at the end of the game as they had to walk of shame out of there. All the Canucks fans then marched in a parade down Hastings to downtown.
  14. That is the one I picked for that number. There are ones that still have us much lower at 5%. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html Money puck at 11.3% http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm Power rankings at 9.8% http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/playoff-odds.php All the bookies are giving us low chances of making the playoffs too. They aren’t all dumb or mistaken. The odds are the odds with some variation for how they weight things. We can hope for things while still accepting reality.... that is OK. Do I take an 8-1 odds for the Canucks making the playoffs too... probably, because I would be happy either way. I would either win a ton of money or the Canucks would be in the playoffs. I wouldn’t bet anything I couldn’t afford to lose though. Those are really long odds, literally exactly what I hav said all along.
  15. This long diatribe filled with anger, frustration and literally zero facts or evidence does nothing to help your argument that you aren’t sad and really need to go for a walk. You can happily go look for “edited” posts, they put the date edited on them for your easy reference. Please go find the posts I apparently made that suggest I want us to lose? You can get someone to do the math for you if you need... but the odds are still the odds. You call them uneducated, but haven’t included a single bit of evidence to provide any actual justification or citations to back that up? Just that it makes you sad and angry? The reason why I would be the happiest if we made it is because I would understand (clearly more than you and most others) how historic a climb that would have been. Based on most of the posts here, folks just think it is doable if a couple things fall our way. There was an article in the Athletic that no team in the history of the league had come back to make the playoffs with under a 5% playoff odds. If we did that, it would be the first time it ever happened. Us doing that would make me ecstatic. It is a little ironic, considering your user name, that I have to point out the goal is winning the Cup. Those lot odds we face are just to squeak into the playoffs, not to win the Cup. I expect our management to be focussing on the latter, not the former. If there are moves they can make which move the needle even a little towards improving our Cup chances in future years, I would like them to do that... even if it reduced our already remote chances of just making the playoffs this season.
  16. Yep, that was the math when this thread started as well. Once you got well behind the pack (not just one team), the ability to climb back is remarkably hard because all those teams you are chasing play each other a lot and are guaranteed points. We need to play really well, PLUS we need Toronto and Winnipeg to be taking all the points away from the teams that are more in reach. Half of that happened, but Toronto didn't do their part and gave away points to teams we are chasing. Looking ahead, Montreal and Calgary play each other a bunch. That makes it really hard for us to pass them both, as one (or both) of those teams will get points out of those meetings. It is much better to have a 12.6% chance of making the playoffs than the 4.6% chance we had a while back... but it is still really long odds. Going 8-2 is all we can ask of the boys realistically and even that is almost certainly unsustainable for the rest of the season. We need the other chips to fall our way as well. Ottawa needs to steal points from teams we are chasing and Toronto and Winnipeg need to start taking points (but not from us). Toronto plays Calgary/Edmonton/Montreal 12 times coming up. They need to win most of those games, and need to lose most of the 3 games they play against us. Winnipeg plays those teams 9 times coming up. They need to win most of those games, and they need to lose most of the 4 they play against us.
  17. You are a pretty sad person to have literally spent the last couple hours going through all my old posts to react negatively to them. You need to go for a walk or something dude. I will be ecstatic if we make the playoffs. You are conflating the reality of very long playoff odds with folks wanting the team to win. (yes, they are still very long odds even after a remarkable 8-2 run.. the fact we are still well out of it after that 8-2 run of games pretty much makes the entire point of the thread. Huge run and we still only climbed a little of the gap and are currently sitting at about a 12.6% chance of making the playoffs)
  18. Less confident with Holtby. Lets hope for the best. It would be nice for the goalie not have to steal so many games. Last game was one of the first ones that I think the team actually won and not just Demko.
  19. You are right, the odds actually likely add up to 400%. They are competing for four playoff spots, not one... so the odds won’t add up to 100%. Moneypuck has a bit of an outdated model, but their basic math should be good. Our recent 7-3 run has moved us up from about 5% to 10% on most of the odds sites. The path is still needing to maintain our level of play the rest of the season (all hail Thatcher!) AND having both Montreal and Calgary fall off a cliff. They play each other a bunch of times (5 of their remaining 26/27 games) still so have a lot of guaranteed points between them.
  20. The answer is don't look at Moneypuck. Just because something is at the top of Google, it doesn't make it the best resource. There are explanations of their model and it isn't up to snuff. There is a reason it is always a huge outlier compared with the other ones.
  21. It did say in stories done for the regular season, but ACL surgery is the 4-6 month timeframe so I think that would mean playoffs too. I wonder if that means they are going to swing for the fences on a Hall trade and hope it works out. Rakell would be the other option but they would have to send salary back for next season as they can't afford him... Pearson would have been a better option if they expected Lee back early in the playoffs. They need a bigger impact player I think if they also need someone for the playoffs.
  22. Considering the size of the business and what extra wins can mean for the bottom line, paying the guy what he wants is the smart decision. It doesn't count towards the cap and the Aquilinis can just mistreat some more migrant workers to make up the difference. If you want a culture of winning and merit, keep the guy doing his job well and fire the guys who aren't.
  23. I genuinely can’t even bear to watch games against Ottawa. I don’t even record them. I can stand losing to decent teams... but getting beaten up by the AHL replacements from the worst run organization in the league is too difficult to accept.
×
×
  • Create New...