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Everything posted by Provost
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Jim Benning, An Excellent Evaluator of Talent, BUT NO GM!
Provost replied to Seeker1's topic in Canucks Talk
Demko is the first significant piece at all in my opinion... at least he is projected to be a regular starter. Gaudette is probably the runner up and his value right now isn't a lot higher than his draft position... maybe a 3rd round pick if we traded him? He is playing 8-12 minutes on the nights he isn't in the press box, and we are one of the worst teams in the league. The other guys have played a few games, but nothing beyond the bottom end of the roster. I can't imagine that in 7 drafts, most GMs haven't found at least a few players like that who play a few games in the NHL. Feel free to do the work and find out though... There was an analysis done here... and you can expect on average for about 1/3rd of 2nd round picks to play at least 99 games in the league (high 2nd rounders like Demko more likely than lower 2nd rounders); almost as much for the 3rd round as well really...between 25-30%. Some of the story hasn't been told on our picks since they can still get to that threshold... but nothing indicates we are beating the pack at all by getting a few games here and there from lower picks. "Played in the league" doesn't equate to significant player for my definition. https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/ I don't think I am going to give credit to Madden since he hasn't played an NHL game and we got just a handful of games from a rental for that asset... if we started adding trades (which is a whole different argument than drafting ability), then I think Benning comes out a lot worse. -
Francesco Aquilini says "I have no plans to make changes."
Provost replied to AriGold2.0's topic in Canucks Talk
...and his 1st round picks aren't screaming huge success. He has had at least as many misses as hits, and that is tough to swallow when you are in the top 10. Here are the other draft lists and who they would have selected at the time based on best player available from their list when we picked. Petterson is the clear win, Virtanen and Juolevi clear losses... Hughes a bit of a win as half the lists took Wahlstrom and half took Hughes... and Boeser and bit of a wash since basically everyone picked him or Konecny. Benning’s Draft 2014 Virtanen, McCann 2015 Boeser 2016 Juolevi 2017 Petterson 2018 Hughes Button’s Drafting 2014 - Ehlers, Kempe 2015 - Boeser (he had him 9th) 2016 - Matthew Tkachuk 2017 - Glass 2018 – Hughes ISS Ranking 2014 – Nylander, McCann 2015 – Konecny 2016 – Tkachuk 2017 – Vilardi 2018 - Wahlstrom Pronman – ESPN/The Athletic 2014 - Nylander, Pastrnak 2015 – Konecny 2016 - Keller 2017 - Vilardi 2018 - Hughes McKeen’s Hockey 2014 – Ehlers, McCann 2015 – Konecny 2016 - Tkachuk 2017 – Vilardi 2018 - Wahlstrom Bob McKenzie 2014 – Ritchie, McCann 2015 – Konecny 2016 – Tkachuk 2017 - Vilardi 2018 - Bouchard Ryan Kennedy (The Hockey News) 2014 – Nylander, McCann 2015 – Boeser 2016 - Tkachuk 2017 - Vilardi 2018 - Boqvist Hockey Prospect Magazine 2014 – Ritchie, Barbashev 2015 – Merkley 2016 – Chychrun 2017 – Petterson 2018 - Dobson The Hockey Writers Consensus 2014 – Virtanen, Ho-Sang 2015 - Konecny 2016 – Chychrun 2017 - Vilardi 2018 - Bouchard -
[Proposals] With an eye to the future
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Ummmm... good question. On the other hand, we can't win games WITH them as has been pretty clearly shown so it is an entirely moot point. You are comparing a non existent baseline to your logic. We have won 2 of our last 12 games. Prior to Sutter scoring a couple games ago, our bottom 6 was outscored 9-0 in the previous bunch of games... they aren't helping us win, just maybe helping us lose by slightly less. The decision is, do we want to lose games while being at the cap and adversely affecting our roster next year due to ELC bonuses... or do we want to lose slightly more games with a ton of cap flexibility to make moves, gain almost $5 million in cap space next season, and acquire a boatload of mid round draft picks. With the actual reality of our situation, we can play young guys, waiver wire pick ups, and cast offs from other teams for the remaining 20-25 games of the season once we can actually move out enough of our rentals to create holes. Miller-Petterson-Boeser Hoglander-Horvat-Podkolzin Motte-Graovac-Eriksson Baertschi-MacEwan-Bailey Michaelis ... that looks like a forward group that can win 2 out of 12 games to me! (and that assumes we can get rid of every single player we could, including Virtanen and Gaudette without taking a single player back) -
[Proposals] With an eye to the future
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
The unknown to me is what is going to happen with the draft this year. There is a decent chance it doesn't happen even remotely normally. Teams will know the top prospects pretty well, but with the minors not really playing for their last 1 1/2 years, anything in the 3rd round and lower would just be throwing at a dart board for guys you may have never seen play enough. It isn't impossible that they only run the first couple rounds this year and do two sets of the later rounds next offseason when they could be meaingful.. there has even been talk of postponing the whole thing and doing two drafts.. but I don't see the league losing out that press entirely. Depending on the state of the internal talks amongst the BOG... mid round draft picks could have much lower value right now since they are going to be really random due to lack of scouting or might not even happen until down the road. We might be able to collect more, and more easily due to this. I still think they will be the currency at expansion because there really isn't anything else teams can take back. -
Jim Benning, An Excellent Evaluator of Talent, BUT NO GM!
Provost replied to Seeker1's topic in Canucks Talk
Since I don't have to worry about this season and playoffs... I spent some time doing up as exhaustive a comparison between Benning's drafting record and the rest of the draft rankings at the time, adding to the bit I did earlier in this thread. 1. I only did 1st round, because Benning hasn't really had much significant come out of later rounds and it would take days to figure out... and later rounds are more likely to be scouts than GM anyways. 2. I just took all the final draft ranking lists, and picked the best available player off their lists who would have been remaining at our draft position. 3. I only did up to 2018 because we can't really evaluate the most recent picks as so few guys are in the NHL. Benning comes out above average... but certainly not genius level. Petterson was his big win over the pack who mostly wouldn't have selected him. We missed with Virtanen and Juolevi compared with the pack. Surprisingly, we would have a stronger draft if we had have hired Craig Button to lead it. You lose out on Petterson and have Glass... but you also have Ehlers, Kempe, and Tkachuk who would more than make up the difference in my mind. Most lists had Boeser or Konecny in 2015 and they are pretty comparable. Pronman comes out pretty well too having been the only one who identified Pastrnak... Benning’s Draft ISS Rankings Craig Button 2014 Virtanen, McCann 2014 - Nylander, McCann 2014 - Ehlers, Kempe 2015 Boeser 2015 - Konecny 2015 - Boeser 2016 Juolevi 2016 - Tkachuk 2016 - Tkachuk 2017 Petterson 2017 - Vilardi 2017 - Glass 2018 Hughes 2018 - Wahlstrom 2018 - Hughes Bob McKenzie Pronman 2014 – Ritchie, McCann 2014 - Nylander, Pastrnak 2015 – Konecny 2015 - Konecny 2016 – Tkachuk 2016 - Keller 2017 - Vilardi 2017 - Vilardi 2018 - Bouchard 2018 - Hughes Ryan Kennedy (The Hockey News) 2014 – Nylander, McCann 2015 – Boeser 2016 - Tkachuk 2017 - Vilardi 2018 - Boqvist Hockey Prospect Magazine 2014 – Ritchie, Barbashev 2015 – Merkley 2016 – Chychrun 2017 – Petterson 2018 - Dobson The Hockey Writers Consensus 2014 – Virtanen, Ho-Sang 2015 - Konecny 2016 – Chychrun 2017 - Vilardi 2018 - Bouchard McKeen’s Hockey 2014 – Ehlers, McCann 2015 – Konecny 2016 - Tkachuk 2017 – Vilardi 2018 - Wahlstrom -
[Proposals] With an eye to the future
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
The picks is really just the return for the clearing cap space to not take on other bad contracts... it doesn't matter that much if they are 2nd or 6th rounders, you are right the priority is clearing the cap space by moving the rentals. The only use I see for the picks (aside from being lottery tickets) is that they will be the currency teams will want back in return for players they can't protect in expansion. They won't want another expansion eligible player back as that doesn't do them any good. Only guys who are exempt and picks will be what is traded. If we have half a dozen 3rd-5th round picks going into that market, as well as spare cap space, we are in a really good spot. Ottawa doesn't "have" to expose Tierney... who knows what they choose to do though, they have a lot of young prospects to protect and they might want to do that instead of a veteran player. There should be a Tierney "like" player available from some team who can't/won't protect them in expansion. There will also be a ton of D available. Foote is probably a goner in Tampa for example. I would actually probably add a priority before moving cap. 1a. Replace Benning or hire a President above him to give the marching orders and approve any moves. I have long considered Larionov a perfect President in the NHL. Hockey legend with Canucks ties who would garner instant respect and be immediately a part of the "new" old boys club of guys like Shanahan, Sakic, Yzerman, Hextall, etc. Realistically we are probably better waiting until after the season when other GMs are fired to find a Benning replacement, having a new President holding the reins might be the best we can hope for. -
Now that we can pretty much put a pin on this season, what are the moves we can make to set us up for expansion, the offseason, and future seasons. 1. Obviously trade all the expiring contracts for picks. Any or even all of the guys you can unload from the list of:Pearson, Sutter, Benn, Hamonic, Baertschi, Roussel, Beagle. Do it fast to let us eat as much of the ELC bonuses this year as possible and not push them. 2. Trade Virtanen+ (Gaudette?) to Buffalo for Borgen. They can’t protect him and their season is pretty much done too. 3. Sign Connor Murphy and Tryamkin in the offseason. 4. Find a 3C exposed in expansion using the draft picks we acquire from our rentals this season. A guy like Tierney if he is available because Ottawa decides to protect all younger cheaper players. A defence next year with some size and mobility, but also cheap enough to be realistic with our cap situation. Hughes-Murphy Borgen-Schmidt Juolevi-Myers Tryamkin
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On a positive note: Olli Juolevi is getting better every game
Provost replied to *Buzzsaw*'s topic in Canucks Talk
They might be worried he would be picked up on waivers. Brian Burke (before he got a job), said he wood absolutely pick up Chatfield if he was available as they really thought well of the player. -
In other related news... “The Vancouver Canucks hockey team visited an orphanage in Burnaby last week. ‘it's so sad to see their little faces, with no hope’, said Robert, age 6.” (stolen from some FB comments)
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On a positive note: Olli Juolevi is getting better every game
Provost replied to *Buzzsaw*'s topic in Canucks Talk
Being the 2nd best D on an atrocious defence is kind of like being the skinniest kid at fat camp. We should be well past leaning on him to be our minute munching beast. You see him wearing down just like last year. If we only needed him to be a 3rd pairing guy who can do spot duty in the top 4, he could probably play years more in the league. -
On a positive note: Olli Juolevi is getting better every game
Provost replied to *Buzzsaw*'s topic in Canucks Talk
If he can be a solid 3rd pairing guy for us at this point we have to take it as a win.... forget about his draft position. Whether he can ever be more than a depth piece is still to be determined... but at least he has gone from an outside chance of becoming an NHLer to at least even money. Going into next season with him and Myers as a 3rd pairing isn’t the worst thing, some teams will certainly have worse. If we need them to play higher in the lineup, that is where things get dicey. Myers is super frustrating in that he looks really good with manager minutes against lesser competition... then there is like a brick wall where you ask just a little too much and the guy is all minor penalties and huge gaffes. We still need to find 2 more top 4D above them to make this work though... maybe we can squeeze a year more out of Edler, but he should really be a 13-15 minute guy at his age too, and not a big minute munching workhorse. -
And the other models say it is half that... 2.9%-5% is their range which seems a lot more accurate. Basically every single game in “the chase” has gone against our odds since the start of the weekend. Only Ottawa taking a point from Montreal helped. I guess the positive to take is that the illusion of a chance has been pretty obviously ripped away. We were always going to lose 3 games eventually, and other teams would win some eventually... this just pushed that to the front and made it “appear” more hopeless. We can (hopefully) join Nashville and start making calls to get ahead of the rental market. I don’t know if I want Benning fired today or not. We need to make moves and switching GMs might delay that, but I don’t have a lot of confidence that he is the right guy to do it. I also don’t know what replacements there are out there right now to choose from. We absolutely need to shed a ton of salary, sooner rather than later. The $4.75 million in ELC bonuses which will currently be pushed into next year could cost us a top 4 D man in the trade or free agency market. Imagine swapping out a Hamonic/Benn level player with a $6 million dollar player... and that is the difference we are talking about. Right now if we drop about $8-10 million in salary, pro-rated it gets us out of basically all the overages. Pearson $3.75 million Sutter $4.375 million Benn $2 million Dropping from 23 man to 21 man roster $2 million That does it with a couple million extra to play with if we had to take any money back in a deal.
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Francesco Aquilini says "I have no plans to make changes."
Provost replied to AriGold2.0's topic in Canucks Talk
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He is incapable of not stalking me.He could literally stop anytime... but won’t I have no idea what he is saying as he is on ignore again, but I see his icon on the thread as recently commented. Almost assuredly more trash talk without substance. ”You’ve chosen to ignore content by Oldnews: Options: show this post” Nope, Yawn...
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(Rumour) Virtanen on the trade block
Provost replied to Wayne Glensky's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
OK...if they won't just give us a pick... how about just... Hakanpaa Deslaurier for Virtanen Low end prospect We get some cap relief this year which (with another move or two) could allow us to afford the ELC bonuses instead of pushing them into next year. We get a couple of serviceable bottom of the roster players who we might even want to consider re-signing but at least can fill holes this season when we move out our expiring players as rentals. Anaheim gets a mid age forward reclamation project that kind of bridges between their really young guys and their ancient veterans. -
It doesn’t expire yet, but it is relatively common for young players to be released from the KHL once their team’s season is done. It is how we got Tryamkin. Not sure if it will be the case here. Benning has certainly stated a couple of times that he will try to sign him the day after his contract expires and not wait until next year.
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[Rumour] Brandon Montour is available
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I think he is a bit of a whipping boy... not saying he is a good coach, but he had his two best defensive D taken away in the offseason and has had to make pairings using NHL rookies. I don’t know how the fact we have over $10 million in cap just sitting uselessly and not on the ice. If you had that money you could have paid for two excellent D. -
Sure... it isn’t a genuine offer though as history has repeatedly shown. I put him in ignore and then realize he is talking smack... I avoid him and he keeps coming onto threads aggressively posting crap. it is incessant and a false equivalency . Go look back at the threads, including this one. He could just stop, but he doesn’t and never has.
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Well that lasted exactly one minute... that is a record for you? Maybe a mod can tell you how the ignore button works if it is confusing?
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Ok... put me on ignore and stop trolling my posts. Great. I generally ignore you until you start coming on being a troll on my posts. I am perfectly content with the fact you are sitting there all angry and frustrated about being proven wrong (yet again)... and trying to spam my thread to hide it doesn’t change that. Of course you won’t ignore me... you have repeatedly offered and can’t help but start talking smack about stuff you don’t understand. Let’s see how long it lasts before you are reacting with your regular aggressive crap.
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That is complete BS and you know it. He was responding to a post I made and using that name calling as the bulk of his counter "argument". The never actually able to respond to outcomes is blatantly false and quite ironic as he literally ignores all the objective outcomes (like our odds of making the playoffs).