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Provost

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Everything posted by Provost

  1. Barring moving out significant cap, you are right that there is no way both are back and maybe even neither. To choose one right now is a really close call. Tanev is still better, but maybe not for long, this season is likely his high water mark and it is all downhill. Stecher on the other hand is a lot younger and a lot less injury prone, and has proven he can play 20 minutes a game without his stats dropping off... but isn't quite as good a fit as Tanev who pairs with Hughes nicely. I think the whole concern over what D protect is probably a moot point at this time, because simply considering the asset value, the one of Markstrom or Demko that isn't protected is the one to select by a long shot. We are super lucky in that we have a lot of exempt players, UFAs, or veterans with short terms left on their contracts... our loss in expansion probably isn't going to hurt much just like Sbisa didn't.
  2. This was quite similar to a proposal I made last fall before Boeser was signed and it was getting close to the start of the season. It was in the context of "If he doesn't want to sign here for family reasons" or "If the reports of his contract demands being in the insane $8 million plus range are true". Those conditions would have dramatically reduced Boeser's value for us. Those things didn't turn out to be true though and we got him on a fairly decent short term deal, which increases his value a lot. Now you have to include Dumba in that trade to make it worth our while while we would have to add a little more and throw in a cap dump to make money work. It is still an overpayment on Minnesota's part, but they would be the one driving the trade and not us and risking our chemistry. Kaprisov should be a better player than Boeser if all projections are true, but he hasn't played in the NHL so is still a big risk to trade him for a proven NHL scorer who may not be elite, but is still a legit top line player. The bonus to Kaprisov is the difference in cap hit in the short term where it would alleviate some of our crunch next year, as well as a little more Russian flavour to help for Podkolzin and/or Tryamkin so they aren't the only Russian on the team
  3. I believe JB said he wouldn’t trade young players or picks for a rental. For creating cap Alex so he could keep other players, maybe.
  4. He doesn’t, he has a NTC by then and doesn’t have to be protected. Another case of the brass considering the expansion draft when structuring contracts.
  5. Shah didn't tweet about Brackett leaving or pretending that he has any inside info, he just said he is worried about Brackett being retained as he is in high demand across the league. It was the Taj guy (maybe the loser regular TSN call in guy "Taj from Surrey") who is spouting the rest which isn't backed up by anything credible.
  6. Well we are more likely to lose Demko or Markstrom because everyone else we would be forced to expose are trash in comparison to those two. Expansion as shown by McPhee isn’t just about who you are going to ice, it is about accruing the most valuable assets that you can also flip. With so many players either exempt or UFA, we don’t really have much to pick from. It isn’t angst, but it is certainly something to keep in mind, as the Canucks brass has explicitly said. Weisbrod said that Edler’s contract was made with expansion in mind, and future contracts will also include it as a variable. They could for example, structure Markstrom’s contract to have a butt ton of money owed in signing bonuses or salary right when he could be exposed to make him less attractive as a target, especially one that they might plan on flipping for other assets.
  7. Well you haven't done the math then. Capfriendly doesn't include the ELC bonuses earned, you have to do that bit yourself. Barring moving out significant dollars, we end up with a thin lineup with less depth than Edmonton has, and three seasons before we can see any light at the end of the tunnel to hope to sign anyone to fill holes. Barring moving out significant cap hits (the sooner the better for the trickle down effect), our trajectory after this year is down rather than up. You might not define that as "cap hell", but anyone with hopes of making the playoffs in the near future would. This lineup for next year is over the cap when you include the pushed ELC bonuses from this year into next and assuming there is at least a $2 million cap increase. It doesn't account for the absolute need to be UNDER the cap by between $2-4 million to pay for the ELC bonuses from next season which can't be pushed into the year when we are paying Petterson and Hughes their full contract value. It gives you zero dollars to pay for short term injury call ups. Miller-Petterson-Boeser Pearson-Horvat-Virtanen ($3 million) Roussel-Gaudette ($1.15 million)-Sutter Ferland-Beagle-Eriksson Motte ($1.15 million) -MacEwan ($975k) Edler-Stecher ($3 million) Hughes-Myers Juolevi-Benn Rafferty Markstrom ($5.5 million) Demko = about $80 million plus the $3.7 million in pushed ELCs from this year = $83.5 million to $83.7 million It is objectively a worse lineup than this year by losing very efficient dollars spent and good production from Tanev and Leivo. That defence is worse by a long shot as you have replaced two experienced NHLers in Tanev and Fantenberg with two AHLers with a combined NHL experience of 2 games. In addition, we have reduced our secondary scoring by replacing Leivo's very good production with MacEwan who won't produce much at all. If you can't find another $4 million to shave off of that above roster somehow, then the following year gets worse because you push those ELC bonuses into the following year again, and by the time you add in about $18 million for Petterson and Hughes... you will need to fill most of the roster spots with guys making an average of $1 million. We now have almost no defence, and no depth or secondary scoring in the forward group. We also have to hope that Hoglander can immediately jump in and replace Pearson's solid top 6 production, because we can't afford to go out and find a UFA. Edler will have to be gone because we won't be able to afford him even at a reduced rate. Miller-Petterson ($10 million)-Boeser Hoglander-Horvat-Virtanen ($3 million) Roussel-Gaudette ($1.15 million)-MacEwan ($975k) Ferland-Beagle-Eriksson XXX ($1 million)-XXX($1 million) Hughes ($8 million-Stecher ($3 million) Juolevi ($2 million)-Myers XXX ($1 million-XXX ($1 million) XXX ($1 million) Markstrom ($5.5 million) Demko ($2 million) = $80 million plus the pushed ELCs from 2020-21 (now including some for Juolevi) = $83.5 million - $85 million. Right at the cap from that year assuming another $2 million raise to the cap.
  8. That is a ridiculous offer. Goldy could have been had for free. Palmu and Sautner are very low leveL prospects that every team has plenty of. Cap space has never been at such a premium in the league. There aren’t the bunch of teams at the cap floor anymore to offload contracts to.... and there are a LOT of teams trying to shed cap.
  9. Their agents would lose their minds. What if Tanev gets seriously hurt next season (Certainly not an unlikely scenario). He only gets paid until the end of his contract, and good luck getting a good offer coming off a season where he maybe played 30-40 games. They both want to sign here, but crazy hometown discounts rarely happen. We might get to pay a millions less per year or a year shorter term, it expecting more is setting up for disappointment.
  10. No, he dismissed the issue in a public interview. No GM is going to say they have a big problem. JB is no different and you have no idea what his actual viewpoint on it is. We can see the. Umbers and the CBA though.
  11. Yep, that is the big issue that turns our cap situation from tight.. to significantly problematic. Especially when you think at not being able to push next years bonuses into the year that we are are paying Petterson and Hughes on their next contracts. That means “as is” we have to drop our cap used next year by an estimated $7million (the pushed from this year and the buffer we need to leave next season to not push those bonuses). We are capped out when the guys get back from LTIR, and over the cap. Also, I think once they hit a certain number of schedule A bonuses, they max out. That came up when Hughes got voted to the all-star game, it wasn’t going to matter because he was going to hit enough bonuses. My understanding is that (barring injury) they will both hit enough to be the max total in A bonuses between them.
  12. You have clearly not been using capfriendly and looking forward.
  13. Well since neither of those players is close to that at the moment and quite likely will never be that... yes. Would you like the alternative of having to not re-sign Tanev, Stecher, or Levio and having to trade away Virtanen in the offseason to avoid his arbitration award... then replacing them all with rookies or cheap contracts under $1 million? How about letting the ELC bonuses push into the year we are paying full ticket on Petterson and Hughes so that we have to trade away more players or replace them with cheap contracts. We are suddenly the Oilers with no depth.. but worse because our top players aren't as good as their top players. The prospects I mentioned are relatively disposable in our organization. Demko won't make it past expansion and back up goalies could be had for cheap at that point since they can't be protected. OJ is by no means guaranteed to be a top pairing D man, and only the most homer people suggest he is on track for that. He could be a decent and useful guy and could slot in under Hughes. Madden is likely never going to have a spot on our roster with a set group at centre for years to come. It isn't without cost, but it also is of great benefit.
  14. Salaries are all paid before the playoffs so you get no relief by trading someone during the playoffs. Player cap hits are calculated daily During the regular season and pro-rated by how much of the regular season is left. So trading with zeros left in the season gives you no accrued cap space. Trading Eriksson halfway through the season means you accrue only half his cap hit as the other half has been paid and charged against your cap.
  15. ... and what “real” deals that have happened look like that. You have just suggested an imaginary deal that doesn’t rely on another team having any say in the matter. Marleau for 1yr of that same cap hit cost a 1st round pick, and Marleau was still a better player. So how does Eriksson for 2.5 years cost way less?
  16. They count towards the cap if they are earned. Trading a player after the season doesn’t give you cap space for the year that already passed. As it stands we ha e virtually all of the ELC bonuses being carried over into next year... so project our cap space next year taking that $3.7 million away And see how much we have to resign players.
  17. ... and that doesn’t include the $3.7 in ELC bonuses we have to find a way to pay.
  18. How do you plan on paying for the $3.7 million in Petterson and Hughes ELC bonuses without pushing into next year. How are you planning on paying their next years bonuses so they don’t push into the following year when you are paying them full retail salaries? How are you planning on re-signing or replacing our current players? Basically all of them who have contracts up are the ones having career years and in for big raises?
  19. I don’t think it matters when they kick in, They aren’t part of the daily cap limit but are part of a separate bonus pool. You get to put any cap leftover at the end of the year towards covering them and any additional can push into the next year.
  20. Petterson and Hughes ELC bonuses will be about $3.7 million. Nothing I have seen in the the CBA or anyone writing about it suggests you can use LTIR overages to pay those bonuses. If you can’t fit them under the cap, you can push them into next year.
  21. So Anaheim realizes now it has to completely rebuild. Word from the weekend is that they are willing to take on bad contracts. They have a ton of cap space including possible LTIR for guys like Kesler that they aren’t currently utilizing. Becuase of our desperate need to shed cap (along with many teams) I would want to get on it quickly and give up a lot of futures to give us flexibility. This is especially important to do now so we don’t push the ELC bonuses into next year. Baertschi and Eriksson would cost us a lot to get rid of, but the opportunity cost of not having that space could cost us a lot more and mean our team next year has far less depth than this year. Players I think we could afford to send out as sweeteners and not hurt our short term chances: Roster players: Stecher, Sutter, Benn, Demko Prospects: literally anyone aside from Hoglander and Podkolzin. Something like: Eriksson Baertschi Demko Juolevi Madden for Miller Getzlaf 50% retained Non roster pieces to even out contracts more
  22. Honestly if he could join us with half a dozen games left in the regular season to see how he looks, it could be a perfect fit. His value in the post season is probably greater than the regular season. A series where his marching orders are to lean on opposing forwards and finish checks (he doesn’t have to be Pronger and there is a lot less actual fighting in the post season)... it could really lag dividends as those forwards wear down over a few games.
  23. It is wrong, same thing happened with Gusev and he was eligible. The KHL season goes until late February but player contracts go until 30th April. The KHL team has to release him from his contract early so he can sign his NHL contract in time.
  24. I don't agree with the Horvat comparison, and we are in a much different position than Montreal is. They need to massively rejig their lineup and are nowhere near the playoff bar. A package that included a small step down in terms of a roster player along with a package of futures would certainly have more appeal to them than a team in the hunt for a playoff spot. Having said that, I prefaced my comments with the note that I don't see any reason why Montreal would move him. They have other pieces to move that could attract interest (even at a low return) that would free up lots of cap space in order to make deals either to take on some slightly inefficent cap space or to sign UFAs to relatively good value deals in the summer when most other teams won't have any money.
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