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Everything posted by Provost
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I am not sure what interview you are talking about, but go listen to the one on TSN.ca right now, it is the one I heard and it lays out several specific ones. He didn’t give the actual numbers but said a number of the ones that worked against Jake.
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He talked about a lot more than just shooting %. He talked about there being a number of two way stats and things like being a net negative in terms of shots and goals against, etc. Combine that with the fact it has only been since December that he has had increased production, you just can't say he has turned some corner in terms of development. He is at least, if not more likely to revert back to more like his norm of his entire career, including October and November of this season. He has one of the highest ozone start % on the team, he has a negative corsi, we are outshot and out scored with him on the ice, and the "threat" analysis of the shots against us while he is on the ice is high. There is plenty to worry about beyond his shooting percentage regressing to his average.
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[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
He is pretty physical, a big upgrade in that department vs Tanev or Stecher -
If you listen to this J.D. Burke interview, he explains that the underlying numbers still seem to indicate that it is more likely that this current production is noise rather than indicative of a sustained higher trajectory. There certainly isn't enough of a sample to indicate he is a legit 20 goal scorer. He has had a good few weeks after a poor training camp, October and November. The real worry is that he hits 20 goals this year and his arbitration number gets ugly... and then he reverts back to the mean. You could be looking at an arbitration award that starts with a three or four, and that is a worrying number. The team will have a really difficult decision deciding on whether he is a player they want to spend that money on or whether a return from a trade could be worth more.
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[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Not really... Sutter and a buried Baertschi makes up only slightly more cap space than Dumba. They are not on long term contracts In this day and age, money has to come in to move money out. Getting Demko PLUS Madden PLUS a pick (likely a 1st or 2nd) more than makes up cap-wise in terms of them getting guys who will be cheap or on ELC moving forward. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
D > Winger That is the calculation. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
That really stands out as an obvious fit for both sides. Instead of sending Kapanen out, use him to replace Nylander, you downgrade your offence a little.... but upgrade your D immensely. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Because we are looking for a D upgrade AND a top 6 winger. It is a lot easier to find a top 6 winger than a top pairing D. Minny only does this because Boeser is from there and would excite the fans in what will be an iffy 2-3 years of retooling. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Things change... just like you kept saying Zucker was no longer on the market once Fenton left... now he is on the market again. The Wild are now not going to make the playoffs and have to change gears to try to retool and change up their roster. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Dumba is already signed to a $6 million deal for four more years. Tanev gets in the $5 million range on a shorter term deal pretty easily on the market... most definitely not a $2-2 million dollar one. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Just to make everyone angry... Do you do Boeser and a good prospect like Madden (plus cap to even it out) for Dumba and Zucker? They get hometown face of the franchise boy and he gets to be close to family. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
So the deal literally includes two roster players (one veteran and one rookie(; a prospect; and a pick.... -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Except we are suddenly now in a window where we need to take advantage of having our superstars on ELCs and showing them we can win before having to negotiate long term contracts. The deal above actually makes cap room to sign our guys, but is at the expense of some futures. Similar to the Miller trade, which is about making us better now and in the future. If we don’t make that cap room right now, we are in some serious cap trouble over the next two years. The Petterson and Hughes ELC bonuses for this year will push into next year; and next year’s bonuses will push into the year where we have to pay retail for those guys. There is no “stay the course” option where we don’t get significantly worse. We have a solid set of players in the pipeline that will be coming on-board over the next few seasons. We aren’t going to be slotting in 2-3 roomies per year in times when we hope to contend. Next year we have either Juolevi or Hoglander coming on in addition to probably MacEwan as a FT player. The year after that we have Podkolzin and Lind who could be ready to slot into the lineup. Then we will have our future picks in the coming years to be developing as well.... they just might not be 1st rounders. Dumba effectively replaces Tanev money so no real long term cap implications on that. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Whoops pressed send on that without adding. I am assuming Ek graduates to the 2nd line next season. Madden also gives them another prospect C in the pipeline. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
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[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
The pick could be a Lottery protected 1st (The one we don’t give up to Tampa)... but hopefully a 2021 2nd. For a legit young D who could be a top pairing and under club control, that gives us what we would hope to get in a late 1st round pick anyways. Seems like a lot if you add in a couple of good prospects like Madden and Demko... but that basically checks off an important piece going forward and with one of Hoglander and Podkolzin hopefully panning out as a top 6, our roster core would be pretty set for a long time. -
[Report] Minnesota to become sellers
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Well Sutter is to replace Koivu As a 3rd line centre who comes off their books after the season and he. Ridges the gap until Madden is ready. Baertschi is a cap throw in because they are getting a couple of really good prospects and a pick in the deal that will help them keep cap space with guys on ELCs. -
Like the idea, but Toronto probably cuts out the middle man and dead directly with Minnesota. Toronto would need to send cap our way to make that work and the. We would also have to send cap Minnesota’s way to make it work.
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As per TSN, the Wild are definitely in the sell mode. Dumba is specifically on the block, and we have been long linked to Zucker who is available again. Both players could fit our needs and the idea of not being pure rentals as they are both signed for beyond this year. Benning was looking for upgrade on D and a top six winger. Dumba seems like a great add as he pops basically replace Tanev beyond this season as a younger, faster, and more gritty player. What possible pieces do we have to make a deal for one or both. I would say that any of our prospects aside from Hoglander and Podkolzin could be on the list going the other way. From our roster, Sutter, Demko, and either Stecher or Tanev. We would probably need to send out Baertschi to make some money even out. A deal for Dumba could look like: Madden Sutter Demko Baertschi a pick for Dumba Stalock and whatever contracts to even it out We trade Stecher in a separate deal Toronto could probably beat that deal if they want him by offering up a serious forward.
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They weren’t when the coaches were selected
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I just saw on a general hockey thread that it will be Tocchet which is total BS.
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Isn’t Gallant supposed to be coaching the All Star game? Would he still go or would Green the next in line go instead? or would it be John Scott?
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.... Reid Boucher and NHL prospect? The guy is 26!! Every team has fringe guys like Brisebois. Leivo is a pending UFA so of absolutely no use to a team that except trading one really good rental for a “meh” rental that objectively makes them worse, but not bad enough to ensure a really high pick. Remember when Jason King was traded for a top line forward? Neither do I. Kreider will likely return them a late 1st rounder or a really good prospect.
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Mathieu Perreault comments on Virtanen (interviewed in a salt mine)
Provost replied to -SN-'s topic in Canucks Talk
That seems like a pretty small bump compared with what happens normally in every game. -
So you are using past performance as well... just slicing out a very recent bit of past performance that makes your argument. There is literally no such thing as “not” using last performance, because the last game they played is in the past. There is a thing called sample size and using it to determine a player’s worth is absolutely proper, especially with goalies. The golf courses are littered with goalies who had a great year or two in the league... only a handful manage to be good for long stretches and are consistent. A longer stretch of good play makes it more likely that consistent trend will continue = more money. Marky doesn’t have 5 years of consistently good play so we can’t assume the next 5 years are going to equal his last year of play.