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Everything posted by Provost
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I normally don't dump on proposals, but this one is pretty far beyond the pale, especially tagged as "realistic". Random, terrible... and entirely unrealistic. I don't think this even flies in a video game on cheat mode. New Jersey wants to take on all our dead money and cast offs for the privilege of being kind and generous... Ludicrous.
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We aren’t trading away roster players while it is almost certain we are in a playoff race. We are the top team in our division based on winning percentage so currently have the best chance of making the playoffs of any team in the division. Trading Tanev makes us worse and playoff experience is more important to us than a 1st round pick somewhere in the late half of the round.
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(Discussion) Carey Price to Vancouver
Provost replied to KnuckleHead16's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Neither Price or Weber have any value without Montreal retaining a big chunk of their cap hit. Honestly though, Price needs a full 50% retained to have any value at all. Too long a term and too many dollars. Doesn’t fit for us already having some young goalies in the system. I would take Weber at 25-50% retained and give them a half decent return though. He looks to be a useful player for a while and if you aren’t paying a big ticket it isn’t too hard to eat for the final couple of years if he doesn’t retire when his salary drops to nothing. We can do a Florida and hire him as a consultant which would badly screw Nashville. He could look really good on a pairing with Hughes as well as a currently missing big shot from the point on a PP unit Hughes-Weber Edler-Myers Juolevi/Benn-Tryamkin/Stecher -
[Discussion] Athanasiou from Detroit
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Pearson, Motte, and Schaller all have contracts expiring before Podkolzin or Hoglander are reasonably expected to play at the EARLIEST in the NHL even as rookies. Eriksson, Beagle, and Roussel all have contracts expiring the year after, when we could reasonably expect those two rookies to be taking more meaningful minutes. We will have plenty of roster spots open at forward. Also, any deal for Athanasiou as an RFA coming off a terrible year is going to be 2-3 years at most... so he could also be a stop gap and coming off the books at the same time we have younger players ready to make meaningful contributions. We do need defence, but that would be an entirely different deal and would also be facilitated by having actual cap space to acquire one. Right now, we won't be able to afford to keep the D we have now, never mind improving. The cap dump element of this is at least, if not more important than what we get in return. -
[Discussion] Athanasiou from Detroit
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Ditching $25 million in dead cap space over the next three years... ya that is worth a lot. Toronto gave up a 1st for one year of Marleau. Without moving out significant salary this year, we can say goodbye to Tanev and Stecher in the off-season and not be able to replace them with anything that costs money. Athanasiou > Leivo by a good margin and would start on our 2nd line spot currently held by Eriksson. ... and you are losing 1 1/2 seasons of that goalie depth before Seattle takes one of them. Goalies are going to be worth almost nothing on the trade market after this year because teams know they could lose one for nothing in return. -
(Discussion) Carey Price to Vancouver
Provost replied to KnuckleHead16's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
Retain 50% of his cap hit, take Eriksson, and give us a couple of non lottery protected 1st round picks and I am all over that deal -
[Discussion] Athanasiou from Detroit
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
With a bad year he isn’t going to get to command big dollars or term. You could sign him for 2-3 years for Baertschi kind of money that lets him become a UFA when it expires. this year gives him no arbitration case. That is a perfect stop gap until those guys make it. Podkolzin is probably a guy that starts on the 3rd line and works his way up as he gets experience in the league... so a year competing with a veteran for the 2nd line spot doesn’t hurt him (or us) at all. -
[Discussion] Athanasiou from Detroit
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
He is having a bad year, but from 2015-16 to 2018-19 he had the 5th best even strength goals per 60 minutes of any forward in the league. He doesn’t get prime PP minutes and efficiently performs in his minutes. This year is the historic anomaly, so it is a much better bet to think he is going to be good when he is on a team that isn’t terrible... than to think he disappeared. He would be a good line mate with Pearson and Horvat as he could use his speed and finish, and won’t take up a spot on the PP where we already have two good units. https://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2019/4/1/18286775/go-greece-lightning-evaluating-andreas-athanasious-impact-on-the-red-wings -
[Discussion] Athanasiou from Detroit
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
They would probably want Bernier for the rest of this season and next that he is signed for. Demko isn’t really ready for be a full fledged starter. Howard for us is a stop gap for the rest of the season for maybe 10 starts max and then we sign someone else in the offseason. it seems like a trade that is good for both sides really. Who knows if we would have to add to get out from that much salary. -
(Update) Quinn Hughes voted into NHL All-Star Game (Last Man Standing)
Provost replied to Pete M's topic in Canucks Talk
Just an extra bit of insurance that he hits enough ELC bonus targets to get them maxed out. He would have anyways, but now it is definite. -
A relative buy low move from a rebuilding team... what do you give up for a 2nd line winger who can play all forward positions and scored 30 goals last season but is having a terrible year this year (along with the entire Detroit lineup)? Detroit is a relatively good trading partner as they have a ton of cap room (including their LTIR guys who are never coming back)... and they are a team looking towards the future. The downside is that Yzerman is a great GM and could end up fleecing us. Reportedly they are interested in some D prospects in the 22-25 range to go along with a great crop of forwards coming. We could move Juolevi plus a pick in order to dump an Eriksson contract and get back Athanasiou in return... maybe it would take a little more from our side or we would have to take on a smaller, shorter term contract like Helm or Filppula. Lots of different scenarios, they don't really have a goalie star in the making either (they have Larsson but he is years away at the very least) but if they took Demko or DiPietro it means they also take Eriksson and maybe even Baertschi without us eating money back in return aside from what it would take to sign Athanasiou. I think he is a decent pick up as he has had a bad year and it is an RFA contract year for him so you have a ton of leverage to sign him for relatively cheap on a 2-3 year deal. If it ends up that re-upping Markstrom at a decent cap hit is a 4 year term... then Demko becomes pretty expendable as he isn't going to be a back up that long and could get picked on expansion anyways. Maybe: Demko Eriksson Baertschi A 2nd or 3rd round pick for Athanasiou Howard Gives us a veteran back up for just this year as Howard's deal expires after this season. Saves us well over $3 million in salary this year which basically pays for Petterson and Hughes ELC bonuses so they don't push into next year. Saves us more money going forward when we need it in the next two seasons and even gives us a chance to fill any holes in the offseason assuming Athanasiou doesn't cost much more than what Baertschi is at the moment. If Athanasiou doesn't work out, we still haven't lost that trade by a big margin as getting out from under those contracts could cost us that much a a return alone. The downside doesn't seem very big compared with possible upside. Also, it could be a bit of a defensive move to keep Colorado from getting him and possibly adding another piece.
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[Signing] Flames re-sign Rasmus Andersson
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
This seems like a reasonable deal and could be a great deal by the end. NHL calibre D cost money... -
As per the thread. You are missing several points.... you roster calculation also includes just Baertschi's buried cap hit but includes his body on the roster. You also can't just account for Ferland and Sutter being on LTIR because you actually have to be cap compliant and would have had to make all the signing decisions before they would go on LTIR... neither of them has indicated that their careers have ended, not even close. Unless we move out some players this season, we have no room to pay the $3.7 million in ELC bonuses that it appears is virtually certain Petterson and Hughes will earn (those bonuses can't be paid out of LTIR because they are not replacing injured players).... unless there is some memorandum of agreement regarding that specifically that someone can point to... we never sent Petterson or Hughes down and brought them up to replace injured LTIR players so that we can use the Performance Bonus Relief Pool as a cushion. Petterson. Eriksson, Horvat, Boeser, Miller, Ferland, Baertschi, Sutter, Beagle, Pearson, Roussel are all signed for a total of $44.5 million Edler, Myers, Hughes, and Benn are signed for a total of $15 million Demko is signed for $1.05 million That is a total of $60.5 million for 16 players Luongo and Spooner turn that into $64.5 million cap hit Petterson and Hughes pushed ELC bonuses at this moment without moves will mean another $3.7 in dead money next year bring our total to $68.2 million Assuming a $2 million cap increase, we now have about $15.3 million to pay for 7 players, assuming we keep Baertschi on the roster, or $16.3 million to sign 8 players if we keep him buried. Markstrom = $5-6 Virtanen = $2.5-4.5 (high end if he scores 20 goals and 40 points and elects arbitration) Gaudette = $1.5 million or more Tanev (or another top 4 D if we have to replace him = $5 million That already equals around $14-17 million and we would still have another 4 players to sign with Baertschi buried and we are already at the cap max. Burying guys frees up only a million and it will cost close to that much to replace them, nowhere enough relief to be found with that method. So we are now anywhere from $3-4 million over the cap already at that point and have also downgraded our roster significantly by filling spots with bottom end players making between $750k to $1 million. We have lost Leivo's great value contribution, and Stecher's great value contribution, we probably can't even afford Motte's great value contribution. But wait... there is more! There is no way we can allow the almost inevitable max ELC bonuses for Petterson and Hughes from next season to get pushed into 2021-22.... because we will have to be paying full retail for them at the time as well and still won't be out from under Luongo/Eriksson so have no room to push those bonuses at all. That means we have to have cap cushion of $3 million plus. ... so now we are $6.5-7.5 over our cap next year including the ELC bonuses that can't be pushed.
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Yep, Beagle and Roussel come off just in time to pay for Boeser's pay raise We have Eriksson and Luongo money coming off at the same time to add a significant piece at that point. Lots can change, but by then (3 years from now) our roster probably looks something like: Hoglander-Petterson-Boeser Miller-Horvat-Podkolzin XXX-Gaudette-Virtanen XXX-XXX-XXX Hughes-Myers Juolevi-XXX Edler-XXX Markstrom or Demko XXXX Not too shabby to "likely" have our top 6 forwards set for the foreseeable future.
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Roussel and Eriksson’s contracts aren’t up until a year after the ELCs expire... so there is absolutely worry for that season as well. You have to assume at least a $9 million Petterson contract and a $7 million Hughes contract and that is being VERY conservative. $14 million in raises is a lot of money to find and replace with cheap help. Pearson and Sutter’s $9 million is replaced by Hoglander and Podkolzin’s $2 million so that is just $7 million of the $14 we need to find. We can hope that Demko is ready and we can expose Markstrom to expansion and he is taken that could free up money. The moral of the story is that there is work to do for our cap issues and there will be a cost to that... it won’t just work out naturally. The year after that when the Luongo recapture is done, and Eriksson is gone, we start looking good again.
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I don't particularly love the specific trades, but something to the effect seems fairly necessary. Doing it this season vs. waiting until the draft or summer helps out immensely as it means we have cap space to cover the ELC bonuses we are accruing rather than pushing then and stealing cap space from next year which will be even tighter. We are so deep into LTIR, it would be almost impossible to make enough moves at this point in the year to bring us enough under the cap to pay for the bonuses though. We can't start banking cap space until we have fewer players whether injured or not. We are $1.5 million over the cap not including LTIR, and with half the season left that basically means moving a $3 million salary just to get under the cap. A buried Baertschi costs us $2.3, so pro-rated for half a season saves us $1.15. I could also see Sutter being tradeable depending on what we want to give up to do it. Those two moves puts us in the clear both this season and next. If we believe Alfives wet dream of Eriksson simply vanishing after this year, then we would be golden.
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As per the thread... take away the $3 million in pushed ELC bonuses into next year and the $3 million cushion for them next year so it doesn’t push into the Petterson and shifted contract year... and you are at negative $3.5 million with your values. Also, if Virtanen chooses arbitration and keeps up his current pace, you have to seriously worry about an award that starts at $4 million plus.
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Yep, that is a pretty ideal roster if Benning can work magic. Is it worth losing Madden, Lind, Juolevi, and a couple of 2nd/3rd round picks to do it all though? Probably not... but at least one of those moves pretty much has to be made. Or something crazy like deciding Virtanen isn't really the player he has been in the last month and trading him while he is at a high... and making someone eat a lot of dead space to do it. Benning and Green know him better than we do and whether they think he is a guy to commit to or not, because his arbitration number could be ugly. Boy wouldn't the boards go nuts if we traded Virtanen and Eriksson at the deadline for a 2nd and a prospect.
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It didn't hit me fully until I was playing armchair GM for next year and got a reasonable looking roster under the cap... then realized the bit about the ELC bonus issue for the next couple seasons and it looked a lot more bleak. It isn't "the sky is falling", but I do think it is worth thinking about as soon as right now and the looming trade deadline. I put Madden and one of Demko/Dipietro in the category of luxuries to have in the organization that are a real strength. Markstrom has made a reluctant believer of me and won me over... maybe he is our guy for the next 4-5 years at least. Petterson, Horvat, and Gaudette are pretty solid in my mind for the next number of years. so if it costs us a good prospect to gain a crapload of cap space in a year that teams won't have much... then that is a calculation to consider for me. If you could exit some/all of Sutter, Baertschi, and Eriksson between now and July 1st... we are golden for cap space for the foreseeable future and can even look to add a piece. I think IF Tryamkin comes (which I would love to see), then it has to be on a 3rd pairing, and maybe that is even less likely now that we are farther on and Rafferty may be an option for cheaper. Juolevi maybe being in the mix or trade bait as well gives some depth, but you can only have so many young guys on the back end without it imploding.
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Tanev may be an odd man out and maybe that is the right move.. but that is a pretty big hit to the team's D. Even very recent history has shown pretty solidly that when Tanev or Edler are out of the lineup we become a below average team. I am a huge fan of Tryamkin, but don't expect him to be a top 4 D jumping into the league. We just have to consider the loss of the players into any calculations for trying to move salary out. So, say we moved Eriksson but it cost us Madden. In reality we would effectively be getting Tanev back in that trade too. It is the opportunity cost of not having the cap space.
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I haven't seen you account for the $3 million we are above the cap this year in ELC bonuses that will be pushed into next year your calculations, or the $3 million next year we need to save under the cap for ELC bonuses ... $6 million forgotten is definitely math that is "off". You also keep shrugging and saying that we can just easily make Sutter, Baertschi, and Benn disappear as part of your plan... which is actually what the thread is about, except there is no reason to believe it will happen magically or easily like you suggest.
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The math is not as OK as some of you are claiming. You say most of the teams are right to the cap next year, but at the same time say we can just trade away salary to those same teams for only a small sweetener. Every team will be trying to dump salary to the 2-3 teams with space and the actual dollars to spend. The “Ottawa will take Eriksson” chant has been on for a long time but we haven’t done it and they will have a couple dozen suitors lining up to foist cap space onto them. Assuming the cap rises by $2 million. That is $20 million to sign 10 players. With status quo, we will push $3 million of ELC bonuses into next year. That leaves $17 million to sign 10 players. We have to keep $3 million in cap space next season because we know Petterson and Hughes will hit their bonuses again next year and definitely can’t afford to push those bonuses into the year that they come off their ELCs and get paid. We won’t have enough cap coming off to pay those two guys and replace the vets on expiring contracts. That leaves $14 million to sign 10 players next season. Signing Markstrom, Virtanen, Gaudette, and Tanev (or another top 4 D) takes all of that and we still have 6 roster spots to fill. It doesn’t “all just work out”, it requires moves to be made... and those moves will cost us.
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We can’t count on the LTIR until it happens, and a you can’t just make Baertschi disappear... he has to be moved, which was one of my main points. The other thing I haven’t mentioned yet because it is too scary to think about, is that unless things change this season, we are looking at pushing $2-3 million of ELC bonus overages into next season which reduces our cap even further into disastrous territory.