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Everything posted by Provost
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Yes...definitely yes... they are a big step down. Both our current guys have shown they can play top pairing minutes without any big issues. Having a right side of Myers, Tryamkin, and Rafferty is a huge step down from that stability. One of those guys can likely come in as our 3rd pairing guy, but expecting more than that is dreaming and risking an entire season when we need to show progress to re-sign our stars at a decent price.
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Sure... that is pretty much the exact point of the post. We may have to give up more than folks would want in order to get money off the books. Virtually everyone would lose their minds if the cost of trading Eriksson was using Madden as a sweetener... but that would be a low cost compared with what Toronto gave up to get out from under a single year of Marleau's contract. The flexibility it gives us in the next two years would be incredibly significant though, so something like that has to be considered.
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The math doesn't seem to work like you say, and I don't see how Baertschi falls off without trading him. He has a limited career at this point and hasn't made so much that he can walk away from millions of dollars. We have Schaller dropping off who can be replaced for cheaper. That is a million saved, compared with many millions in raises for current players we would want to re-sign. Every other player dropping off will require a more expensive replacement (another player or themselves at a raise) as they are providing efficient value for their production. Maybe we can replace Stecher with a cheaper 3rd pairing D, but it is at at the cost of quality and having a guy that can move up to the top 4 in case of injury. Do we think we can replace Leivo's projected 40 points for $1.5 million or less?
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You are taking Tanev, Stecher, and Leivo out of our lineup just to keep under the cap and that is kind of the definition of us getting worse. $18 million for 10 players: Markstrom 6 Tanev 5 Virtanen 2.5 Gaudette 1.75 That leaves $2.75 to sign 6 players... maybe bump that up to $4.75 with a cap increase of a couple million. That also assumes already losing Stecher and Leivo off our roster. That is also assuming that Virtanen's last month of play is a blip rather than what he will be for the rest of the season... because if he hits 25-30 goals and 50-60 points mostly 5 on 5, that is going to cost a lot more than $2.5 million. Miller-Petterson-Boeser Pearson-Horvat-Sutter Roussel-Gaudette-Virtanen Ferland-Beagle-Motte Eriksson-MacEwan Edler-Myers Hughes-Tanev Benn-Rafferty/Juolevi Brisebois Markstrom Demko That roster is a cap team already, it isn't improved at all and certainly isn't adding a top 6 winger, and it doesn't account for fitting the ELC bonus overage pushed into next year or the amount of cushion we need to stay under the cap next year to not push next year's ELCs into 2021-22.
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We should still get rid of Eriksson at almost all costs, but he has at least managed to be average in this short span of games. I can't remember seeing him battle in front of the net for a couple seasons and there have been a few times lately that he has been there and even screened on goals that he didn't count on the scoresheet for.
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The closer we get to the trade deadline, and seeing how players have been performing this year, it is hard not to look forward to next season and how the team is going to have to choose who to re-sign to stay under the cap. We have a real possibility of having a worse roster next year than this one. We can't count on re-signing all our UFAs/RFAs, and also can't count on all the players who are having career years this year matching their output next season. Even status quo means the talk of making a move for another top 6 winger (unless a pure rental, which Benning has said isn't really their aim), highly unlikely. Unfortunately three of our better success stories are three of the few players needing new contracts (Markstrom, Gaudette, and Virtanen). If Tanev continues to have a healthy year, that ups his value as well. We pretty much have to say goodbye to Stecher and Leivo, they will command more than we can afford. Markstrom is going to get $5.5-6.0 if not more; Virtanen is probably in the $2.25-3.0 range; Gaudette will get a healthy raise of up to a million dollars more; Tanev probably $5 million or more on a short term deal. That is pretty much all our cap space even assuming a rise of a couple million to the ceiling. It highlights a critical need to get one of Eriksson; Sutter; or Baertschi off the books just to have enough room that our roster doesn't get worse next season and even have a chance of filling a hole or two. Sutter or Baertschi shouldn't be TOO tough to move, it means adding a sweetener or a prospect or pick. Eriksson if we can't get him to retire means moving a high pick or a higher prospect like Madden out in order to move... but that should also be on the table since the opportunity cost of not having that cap space will cost us valuable pieces that we have to let go or cost us the ability to make moves to solidify our roster. We might need Hoglander and one of Juolevi/Rafferty in the lineup just to have cheap ELCs filling roster spots. None of the math even considers adding a guy like Tryamkin who would cost in the $2-3 million range most likely to have him leave the comfort of the KHL. (In before the inevitable comments to just sit back and enjoy... am enjoying our current season and how things are going... but it is actually possible to think about more than one thing at the same time). [Edit: I should have mentioned this too... it is later in the thread but folks might not read that far. We also are contending with $2-3 million in bonus overages for Petterson and Hughes that will likely be pushed into next year taking more space off the cap than it is projected to rise. AND we also have to be another $3 million under the cap next year to cover expected ELC bonuses from that year because we can’t afford to push them into the year we have to actually pay Petterson and Hughes ].
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It is pretty clear that no teams want to take on cap beyond this season as they don’t know what is gonna f to happen with the ceiling. Only four teams have more than $5 million in cap space left, there aren’t a bunch of cap floor teams anymore. A few more have LTIR space, but don’t seem to want to use it up.
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[Report] Lias Andersson requests trade from Rangers
Provost replied to Ossi Vaananen's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Probably not, it that doesn’t change the fact Demko will just be ready for a starting role and DiPietro will be stuck behind him. We are either protecting Demko or we protect Markstrom and trade Demko before expansion... so we would still be moving one of Demko or DiPietro. No scenario makes it more worthwhile to have “extra” depth in the position if we could change for that for more depth where we need it or a roster upgrade. Two blue chip young goalie prospects is a luxury, we aren’t an organization that can afford luxury because we still have lots of needs. -
[Report] Lias Andersson requests trade from Rangers
Provost replied to Ossi Vaananen's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
So, basically none of these have any value, every organization is full of similar guys. Our only “untouchable” prospects should be Podkolzin and Hoglander, and they aren’t really untouchable but it would be hard to think of a deal that would bring us something better. Dipietro is tradable as we already have Demko and likely Markstrom locked up for several years. An ideal asset to trade from organizational strength to need. Lind may be a nice bottom six guy as veteran contracts expire, but absolutely replaceable. Madden is prime trade bait, we have our centres locked up and he will have to somehow surpass Podkolzin and Hoglander on the depth chart as a converted winger right at the same time they are going to be competing for roster spots. Juolevi and Woo are harder to give up as our D prospect depth is thin, but they are far from sure things as top 4 D... so if they are traded for an upgrade, no big deal. Folks are ok giving up a 1st rounder for Miller, but balk at sending out later round B and C prospects because “maybe” they will hit. -
Except that you and everyone else has been saying that for several years and it failed to happen.. I don’t see folks pulling those posts out. A lot of your posts seem to be getting all loud and mouthing off to folks when Jake has had a good game, and then getting very quiet for very long stretches when he is terrible. You can’t have it both ways without just looking like an ass. His play has earned the criticism thrown his way. Even taking just this year, he had a terrible training camp where he was singled out again for not preparing like a professional, then he had a bad October and November before having a good December.... so one single month of good play so far. A month that exactly coincided with him being put on a line with Roussel. Most folks even down on him had him pegged as a 3rd liner, which is what he is right now. Limited minutes and protected against lesser competition. He is performing between Pearson and Leivo numbers... great for him, but not exactly lighting the world on fire as his comparables are cast offs from other teams. His history has just reduced our expectations of him so significantly that it is easy for him to surpass it. He has a long way to go before proving himself as a top 6 guy like everyone has been claiming for years.
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[Report] Lias Andersson requests trade from Rangers
Provost replied to Ossi Vaananen's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Strome is also reported to be on the block if NYR stays this far off the playoff pace. Not a lot of teams have space to trade without sending money back... but we should be in on that if they would take a player like Sutter/Baertschi/Eriksson plus they pick/prospect they would want. -
Honestly, I credit Roussel for a lot of it. He has that ability to drag other guys into the fight which is what Jake has always struggled with. Roussel also plays a North-South style that when Jake emulates he has success. 12 points -3 in 27 games before Roussel 11 points +4 in 13 games since Roussel The eye test difference to me has been pretty stark too. Normally when Jake rushed the puck in the offensive he would get angled off by the defenceman and end up circling behind the net looking for a pass. Now he seems to be fighting through the check and driving the net. It is not only creating scoring chances for him, but Roussel and Gaudette have been able to snap up rebounds. I still have too many doubts to commit any sort of real team or dollars on Virtanen. There is enough history that it will take some sustained success before I am convinced this is a sign of a real upward trajectory and him finally “getting it” or just a function of great line mates and feasting on lesser competition on the 3rd line. Players have career years all the time and then regress to the average.... development isn’t linear. Having said that, if he can be a 20 goal, 40 point 3rd liner... I think anyone takes that as a win at this point.
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Ya, so you are spouting nonsense. Both being iffy young players doesn’t mean they are at the same point in development or age, and it certainly doesn’t say that Gadjovich has spent time in the NHL. It means they are both iffy and both young. Gadjovich hasn’t come close to a sniff at the NHL, and is far down our call up depth chart. He is a long shot to ever be an NHL regular, just like most of our middle prospects.
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Who said he did?
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With our nearest winger prospect 2-3 years away AT LEAST from being a meaningful contributor, making a trade is pretty much our only play or we are wasting prime years for our core. Failing that we will have to find a cheap UFA veteran over 30 on a 1-2 year contract (Vanek type of deal) to fill the gap and hope they have something left in the tank. Like it or not, Madden and maybe Lind are probably going to get pushed down the depth chart by Podkolzin and Hoglander and may never have a meaningful roster spot on our team. They could have value without us losing a step prospect-wise. Of course the whole discussion is moot unless we can offload salary from Baertschi, Eriksson, or Sutter. With the raises due our current players we are going to use up all the cap space for next year.
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We wouldn’t know until we put him in a spot to see. He could be another version of Boucher, great for the AHL, but can’t make the leap. At 22 he still has upside. The value would have to be another very iffy young player like Goldy or Gadjovich.
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According to Friedman Bracco, Timoshev, And Harpur are being shopped. https://theleafsnation.com/2019/12/29/bracco-timashov-and-harpur-on-the-trading-block/ Bracco could be a nice addition depending on the cost. We certainly need to find a cheap skill player for the 2nd line... we are trotting our Eriksson which is ridiculous. Bracco is a speedy playmaker which could be a complement to Bo and Pearson.
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Goalie values are funny. Only the very top ones earn big money and term. It is actually going the opposite, where teams are spending less on a team #1. Marky is probably earning a $4.5-5 million contract with a 4 year term, no trade protection. There are comparable signings and a glut on the tending market next summer. It isn’t going to break the bank.
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[Report] Lias Andersson requests trade from Rangers
Provost replied to Ossi Vaananen's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Go look back... the response to drafting Petterson was overwhelmingly positive. Folks were happy to have drafted for skill instead of the safest bet. You can always find a few folks with any opinion, but the threads show people were happy at the time. There is also a difference between an 18 year old’s body and a 20 year old one. Those two years generally make a huge difference in body development. Petterson was 3 inches taller and more than 20 pounds heavier than Madden at the same age. Your own post goes against your point by using that comparison. The people who were worried about Peterson’s size have significantly more to worry about with Madden. Madden would be the smallest or second smallest player in the entire league, and that is problematic for a centre. He is a long shot to be a meaningful player. -
Not by the end of Weber’s term.... no chance. Not unless he retires and frees them up from that cap hit.