-
Posts
11,729 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
3
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Everything posted by Provost
-
Well Rutherford came on the road trip… so he is there to fire the coach in person I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens, it is an untenable situation. I also don’t think it will help.
-
Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Canucks Talk
And the latter half of the first round and 2nd round are full of D that are really good bets so it is also a good year to get some extra picks from contenders who aren’t going to be worried about missing out on Bedard with their late picks. We could load the system with Centres and Defence over the next couple years. That gives you probably 5+ years of cheap ELCs coming onboard as guys develop at different paces. -
Predict The Score Contest: VAN @ BUF November 15 2022
Provost replied to goalie13's topic in Canucks Talk
I am going to go off the board with this one…. The Canucks will realize we are too close to actually having a meaningful direction and will handily win: 5-3 Canucks Kuzmenko -
Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Canucks Talk
I can assure you that companies buying luxury boxes don’t want to spend money to see losing teams. For most of them those boxes are investments where they make big sales to customers or reward employees. You want it to be a positive and happy environment, not a gloomy one. -
Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Canucks Talk
… and even at that, this is the excellent consolation prize according to Button’s list (He has outperformed pretty much every other top ten list for years). The name sounds kind of Italian… so maybe Aquilini would be OK tanking for him Big centre, amazing wheels, mature two way game with great production. NHL comparable of Eric Lindros. Not a bad first piece to a rebuild. http://www.mynhldraft.com/2023-nhl-draft/player-profiles/Adam-Fantilli -
[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at Boston Bruins | Nov. 13, 2022
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
I fully expect to check the news by tomorrow and find out changes have been made. Hopefully it isn’t to the coaching staff. JR and Allvin better have been putting deals together over the last week in preparation to be able to pull the trigger if things continued to go off the rails. -
The real slide started when the new regime gave away a pick for Dermott. They had been saying all the right things about doing a lot of work to the roster and managed a stellar deal to get a 3rd round pick for Hamonic. When they went right out and traded a good pick for a bottom of the lineup guy, it was shades of Benning and made no sense with what they were saying. Then the trade deadline without anyone significant moved even though their value should have been high. Then the draft and no Miller trade. Then the Miller signing. It all added up to the new management team either lying with their initial messaging, and/or just not having the skill to execute on their plan. I actually gave up my Sportsnet cable package a weeek or so ago. That is apathy I haven’t felt since the Messier/Keenan days. I never felt that during the awful underdog teams that we had and lost most nights but left it all out there and as the Black Bart Canucks tune went… “they may lose a game or two, but always won the fights…” I should note it is apathy for this roster and current iteration of the team. I still care very much about how it does in the future.
-
Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Canucks Talk
Bedard isn't the only great player in the draft.... the consolation prize of rebuildng but missing out on the #1 player is to still get an excellent player who will likely be a cornerstone of your team for many years. The consolation prize for chasing slim odds for the playoffs and missing is zero, worse than zero.... it is actually reducing your chances of success in future years when you get to start over to try to win. Again, if you read the OP… those are the odds of just making the playoffs. Who cares about that? The odds of winning the Cup for us are at less than 1%… that is the only metric I care about. You can't compare the two things... that is pure nonsense false equivalency. -
Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Canucks Talk
That is the awful part, if we went into a full rebuild and traded away our best talent... the motley assortment of cap dumps we would have to take in return to make the salary cap work would probably end up with a better winning record. -
Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim
Provost replied to Provost's topic in Canucks Talk
I don't actually think we would (hence the link I included). A top 5 pick is still more than likely to turn into a top of the lineup player. A couple more mid or later 1st round picks from sending out players would also likely be decent NHLers at the very least. Just the centres: Bedard, Fantelli, Leo Carlsson, Yager, Benson, Dvorsky, Stenberg, Ritchie There are a ton of D ranked in the mid/late 1st round who would immediately be our best prospects in that position. If they actually followed the player profile that JR talks about (big and fast), then you can actually draft to that identity. -
Well here, goes... I am doing this one game early (at least mathematically) in hopes that I am made to look foolish by a string of Canucks wins. The standard from a whole crap ton of historical data is that by the 20 games mark (around American Thanksgiving), any team that is either under .500 or more than 4 points out of a playoff berth has pretty low odds to make the playoffs. One more loss in the next 5 games and we can't make .500 by the 20 game mark. The difficulty in making up ground is a function of a couple of things. One main one is that the winning % range between a bad team and a good team is really quite small which makes it a lot harder of a road to make up ground than it looks. Aside from a few outliers, a really good team over a season plays at .650 (106-107 points) and with the loser points, a REALLY bad team still plays at about .400 (65-66 points). This was really illustrated last year when the Canucks played just lights out for half a season and still fell well short of a playoff spot. That really reflected a best case scenario as a couple of teams we were chasing also faltered badly. Still not good enough because when you fall behind the math is really against you. Lots of teams between you and a playoff spot that you have to outplay, and a lot of guaranteed points between them for at least one of them to stay ahead of you. It is almost a mathematical impossibility for a whole bunch of teams ahead of you to play sub .500 for the rest of the season. Someone has to win games and get points out of each given game, and unless we win most of our in-conference games; they split all in-conference games between each other about 50/50; and then lose most of their games against the East... some teams will just stay ahead of us. It is just math. It isn't being negative. What that means is when you look at 67 games left to play... if the Canucks played lights out at a .650 rate from here on out.. they end up with 98 points which is enough to squeak into a playoff spot with the historic cut off being about 96 points. If the Canucks play really bad for the rest of the season at a .400 rate, they end up at 64-65 points. That range doesn't give a lot of runway for the Canucks to actually make it, and a whole lot of possible outcomes that mean missing the playoffs. The most likely outcome will be in the 73-83 point range for the season now, which already assumes the Canucks start playing quite a bit better than they have to start the season. The odds of the Canucks making the playoffs on various websites as of 13th Nov: MoneyPuck 8.5% Playoff Status 21% Hockey Reference 16.5% Power Rankings 19.1% Five Thirty Eight 24% So basically a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs... which we always forget isn't actually the goal. The odds of actually winning the Cup are vastly more insignificant than that. The Team President keeps slagging off the coach who has to know by now that his contract isn't going to be renewed... the players have to know that too now, which is a super shitty thing to do to a coach who is trying to hold players accountable for poor play. It also means that there is zero motivation for Boudreau to play the kids since his job is to win games in the short term and not to develop players for a roster he won't be coaching. Injuries have already piled up, and the team wasn't performing well even when healthy. There isn't a lot to suggest a massive turnaround for the team playing at an elite level for the remainder of the season. More folks seem to be more onboard with the idea of trading away and rebuilding this time around, which seems like a good idea right now to me instead of chasing fairly long odds to make the playoffs. There is no realistic path for this roster to get much better over the next couple of years. No prospects to speak of along with cap issues that would make filling the holes possible via the UFA route. Making big trades creates other holes, as we have relatively few areas of organizational strength (Our main strength being overpaid 3rd pairing D... which aren't the best trade assets). It is hard to make big deals mid season, but hopefully some teams are facing injuries or want to keep up with their divisional rivals and will pay the price... and even more hopefully the Canucks brass are open for business. The exception for a shorter term turnaround would be if they still managed to trade Miller for some D help and futures, and were able to sign Bo for reasonable dollars. That could allow the cap space to fix some D issues and be more competitive in a year or two when some expensive contracts come off the books. Barring that, I don't see a roadmap for becoming a contender that doesn't involve literally tearing it down and starting from scratch. That includes Petterson, Hughes, and Demko to me, as a rebuild means we won't be contending any time soon while they are under club control. They are also basically the main attractive trade pieces that would net us a ton of players, picks, and prospects that would form the basis of a rebuild. Some folks keep mentioning just casting off our undesirable players and somehow getting assets in return that turn into the cheap, high end ELC contributors we need coming through the system... I don't know how you see that working, we would have to give up the futures we need to rebuild to get rid of those contracts. From my "homer" side, 1 in 5 playoff chances mean at least every once in a while the team will actually manage it. Maybe this is the year? That is very Canucks like to improve enough to just make our draft position worse, yet make no noise in the playoffs.
- 863 replies
-
- 17
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs | Nov. 12, 2022
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
One more loss in the next five and we can’t make it to .500 by the 20 game mark. We have a tougher schedule coming up, we had a lot of games against bottom feeders so far. I guess we can hope we will see a lot of back up goalies and teams looking past us to give a better chance at stringing some winds together. I don’t hold out much hope though. This might be the earliest I post my “The odds are so low this year it is time to think of moves to improve our chances next season and beyond.” thread. Honestly, even going 4-0-1 in the next stretch just gets us to unlikely playoff odds. -
[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs | Nov. 12, 2022
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
I look forward to days when there aren’t Canucks games…. -
[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at Toronto Maple Leafs | Nov. 12, 2022
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
That was after Gillis told them and got fired. -
Predict The Score Contest: VAN @ TOR November 12 2022
Provost replied to goalie13's topic in Canucks Talk
6-5 Leafs Tavares -
[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
Provost replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
… another new coach? You really think that is the problem with the team? We can’t build around Petterson, he isn’t signed long term and won’t be under club control by the time we are winning enough for him to want to stay. -
[Proposal] Vancouver 2023 Unprotected 1st for...
Provost replied to Claiborne55's topic in Proposals and Armchair GM'ing
We do.- 1 reply
-
- 2
-
-
-
[Rumour] Bo Horvat Trade/Contract Talks
Provost replied to HOFsedins's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
All of the studies actually show that face off proficiency has surprisingly no correlation between winning and losing. A large part of that is that even an amazing faceoff guy is only winning in the high 50’s% where a bad faceoff guy is still winning in the low 40’s%. Almost all centres hover remarkably close to a toss up 50%. Add to that, most goals aren’t scored off direct possession from faceoffs. -
[Signing] Canucks sign Ilya Mikheyev
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
No, he says the team needs to play with more structure so they don’t have to rely on the goaltender… that isn’t the same thing as restructuring. The team needs to be completely changed -
[Signing] Canucks sign Ilya Mikheyev
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
So if we were a much better team we would be higher in the standings… yep If you have to rely on a Vezina calibre performance every night to not be 27th in the league… your team isn’t very good. Demko was right at the top of the league in expected save percentage last season. If you broke it down last year, if he was just average, the team would have been in a bottom five lottery spot. -
Predict The Score Contest: VAN @ BOS November 13 2022
Provost replied to goalie13's topic in Canucks Talk
6-3 Bruins Debrusk -
Well technically we need to have someone to babysit Hughes and someone to babysit OEL, so Schenn can be pushed down onto a 3rd pairing with Myers and play where he should be on a decent D. Schenn is filling in better than we can realistically hope for and playing above his pay grade, but any team wanting to contend probably shouldn’t have him on a top pairing. JR talks about puck moving D… I am not sure how he doesn’t realize he has them… but is using them as shut down guys instead. For all the Myers gaffes in the defensive zone, if he has the right partner, he could be a high end 3rd pairing guy who pots in some offence. OEL is still one of the better offensive D in the league, you saw it immediately when Hughes got hurt and he had to fill in on that role. A stay at home partner unlocks his actual skillset again, instead of setting him up to fail as a shutdown guy.