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Provost

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Everything posted by Provost

  1. Josh Norris just got a season ending injury… maybe they are in the market for centre and are willing to give up some futures! I bet their fan base would be really happy to see they are moving from perpetual rebuild to improving the team and building around all their great young players. Demko and Horvat to them for a boatload of picks and prospects :D. They become a pretty sure fire playoff team.
  2. I just canceled Sportsnet for a while… I can watch highlights (lowlights) any time I am feeling too good about life and need a downer.
  3. Yep.. this. If this season is a bust, then the boat may have already sailed on Petterson's future with the team. He either walks or you have to overpay to keep him on a team he has known nothing but losing on his entire career. Same goes for Horvat next offseason. The value of trading Petterson now with some years of club control is pretty massive... it becomes a whole lot less when facing no cost certainty for a player who is an unsigned RFA. If we aren't going to be a cap team we can also eat a bad contract (without a lot of term) coming the other way or even retain salary on him. Hughes, Petterson, and Demko all net you first round picks (maybe multiple 1st rounders each as they are likely to be later in the round) plus a bunch of a trading partner's top prospects.
  4. Not really, you just use more than one piece of information. This particular model doesn't quantify the calibre of player with a great amount of specificity. All top 6 forwards aren't created equal, Connor McDavid is a top 6 forward... so is Conner Garland. This particular model doesn't discriminate any difference between the two. This particular model has been around for a while and it really is useful for quantifying picks outside the 1st round.. or late 1st round onwards where you aren't going to spend hundreds of hours analyzing every player in great detail with very advanced models like you would for the very top picks. This particular story just has a set number of years so it still has some volatility where one really good or bad pick at a spot can change the values quite a bit. You add in another decade to it and you would see it even out a bit more and those little anomalies sort out. If you are making a decision on whether to have a trade that includes the 25th pick or two mid-late 2nd rounders... that is what this model helps with. The 2nd rounders are a little less likely to make it, but two of them have more value than the single 1st round pick. Same as if you are sitting in the 15-20 spot and someone offers you a later 1st round pick plus a 2nd... that probably gets you a better value.
  5. You can’t rebuild and keep those guys… it just has no hope of working. The rest of the roster doesn’t get you back a lot of assets, most of them take assets to move and that isn’t what you do in a rebuild. Without a bunch of extra picks and young prospects, the team can’t rebuild as there aren’t new bodies coming in. It would just be a couple guys a year coming in and then a cycle of guys rolling off their ELCs. Those core guys in Petterson, Demko, and Hughes will also be able to just leave during a rebuild as tbeir contracts expire. Why would they stick around when they can go win somewhere. If you trade those guys, you have multiple 1st round picks in the next 3 years as well as more later picks and some very high end prospects. That is the bulge of players developing together you need to actually create a window to possibly win and the steady stream of cheap ELCs that keeps a window open.
  6. No one is saying he should be given the keys to the team. He also said he didn’t know how you make THIS roster win…. Because the answer is you can’t. He clearly said in quite a bit of detail that the answer is to do a complete rebuild because the team as constructed isn’t working. https://canucksarmy.com/news/jannik-hansen-calling-proper-canucks-rebuild-not-retool
  7. Hansen is probably the best ex-Canuck analyst there is. He seems to have a really good understanding of things beyond just a player’s perspective like you hear from guys like Bieksa and Kesler. He should be an AGM of Abby
  8. The missing context that is needed with this is that league expansion has made achieving the playoffs significantly harder. These numbers would have to be corrected for that if you want to compare them to this year and our chances. It draws an incorrect conclusion otherwise. When there were 22 teams in 81/82 and 16 made it to the playoffs you could have a badly losing record and still make it in. Almost every team made it. In 81-82 we finished three games under .500 94-95 we finished the shortened season right at .500 88-89 we finished 6 games under .500 None of those records would be close to getting us a wildcard spot now. Only one time on that list did we reach a level that would make the playoff nowadays It actually shows how bleak the situation is. .
  9. It seemed pretty unlikely… an anonymous 14 year old on Reddit isn’t a source of reliable news. The Reddit post has been deleted since then.
  10. This is exactly it. We are capped out with lots of contracts on the books that make players have negative value. How do you get from point A to point B… people are just ignoring that. If this roster doesn’t magically turn into a contending team in the next month, there isn’t any cavalry coming to fix it. It is a 2-4 year process of tearing the roster down by trading valuable assets (we have precious few of those) and letting expensive inefficient contracts expire (without replacing them with more expensive contracts.. at least. One with term attached. By that time you are looking at losing Petterson, Demko, and Hughes to free agency.
  11. It is funny that when I use math people get mad. They get even more mad when things play out just like the odds say they will. Amusingly many of the same folks who go mental when I post when our playoffs odds go below 20% are now losing their minds about our poor odds when the math doesn’t even say that yet. … and I am the voice of reason None of the odds sites are posting their odds yet as any numbers are meaningless. Without an appropriate sample size, things are just too volatile to mean anything. It is really common for teams to go on really good runs for a stretch of 5-10 games and go on really poor runs for stretches of 5-10 games. It just looks more obvious when it is as the start of the season. The 20 game mark is the historical time when enough of the season has gone by to correct for short bursts of good or bad play, and also combined with less runway left to make up ground. You need to be .500 or above and within about 4 points of the playoff bar at the 20 game mark to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. That is obviously a rough gauge as it depends on how your division is doing, how many teams are between you and a wildcard spot, any special cause variation like your starting goalie being out for a stretch, etc. We need to be 9-4 coming up to be at .500 when that 20 game mark hits and a quarter of the season is under our belts. Not impossible at all. The larger point is that just gets us back into the race for a wildcard spot and still with pretty long odds to make it that far. Squeaking into a wildcard spot is also miles away from being an actual contender with a realistic shot at winning the Cup. I don’t see a path to becoming a contender with this roster unless it shows us something that we haven’t really seen. No cap space, raises owed to some efficient contracts eating up future cap space, no prospects of note coming in soon. Sometimes the sum of the whole is less than the individual pieces.
  12. … umm we just signed Miller while in the basement
  13. You don’t even understand what club control is… With your random jumble of words “logic” no players is ever under club control. They can choose not to sign with the club that drafted them, they can choose to sit out even with a signed contract, they can go play in another league that doesn’t have an agreement with the NHL, they can go work at Burger King and not play hockey at all… Until a player reaches UFA, they are considered under club control.
  14. The team has to be bad for almost a decade for this regime to catch up to Benning. So far they: Badly misjudged the market on Miller when they didn’t trade him at the deadline Let a winning streak last season paralyze them into not moving out as many players as possible Didn’t find a way to improve the defence Didn’t find a way to shed cap Signed three contracts that so far don’t look very good (Miller, Boeser, Mikheyev) They said the right things and JR seemed to know exactly what we needed to do moving forward. He just hasn’t done any of it.
  15. You know it is a joke about our team being bad enough that Erikkson would be an upgrade… right?
  16. You do know he is a UFA long before that right? We have him three years beyond this one. How long his career could be for another team isn’t particularly relevant to the Canucks.
  17. We just aren’t doing the little things right. I wonder if there is anyone out there who can help us….
  18. Shouldn’t be unbelievable. It has to be a consideration. With raises due players this could be the best version of this core we see.
  19. Do we have a deal for them! It only costs them an unprotected 2023 1st round pick
  20. Coyotes players are sitting in their college arena dressing rooms thinking “At least we aren’t stuck playing on the Canucks…”
  21. On the plus side, we played better. On the bad side, we still weren’t competitive. The score made it look a lot closer than it was.
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