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Provost

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Everything posted by Provost

  1. Ottawa is indeed lovely and with lots of, parks, arts and culture as the national capital. The weather is crap… but that goes for pretty much anywhere but the Lower mainland and Vancouver Island.
  2. Why would that result in a strike or lockout? The split of the pie doesn’t change. If the PA wants to negotiate limits on 2nd contract so veterans make more they can (they won’t). This is actually much more of a market correction to make it more fair. All the overall trends show players between 24-30 are the peak performers. Not players in their 30’s. It used to be that veteran players were heavily overpaid for past performance… now players are being paid in their primes instead.
  3. It would likely take more than that... but naturally I would do it, even without Chytil in the trade.
  4. Ya, they have enough players to get really close to the cap. Someone worked it out and it was within about $50k of maximizing Ferland’s LTIR. It is also a myth that you need to fit LTIR players under the cap on day 1 of the season before being able to assign them. In our case this year it seems like it works better to have players papered down and Ferland not in LTIR right away… then put him on LTIR and being the kids back up.
  5. Sure if you thought you could forecast his value and get similar back. If someone offered Dobson for Podkolzin you obviously have a really hard time turning that down. Almost impossible to know what he will be yet, so any trade is risky unless it is just a slam dunk. From what other players rave about him, we could be giving up a guy who will be on our top line for a decade and plays a heavy, responsible game. His contract status also matters, we will get surplus value from him on his ELC and he doesn’t seem like he will be the flashiest offensive type of player that tends to get way overpaid on his first RFA deal… so him at around $3-4 million a year for a bridge deal is also likely to provide an efficient contract which we will need to open up a contending window.
  6. Stralman, Subban, de Haan, Rodrigues We are more in need of F obviously but someone is going to likely do well by signing Rodrigues. It would be interesting to see what a motivated Subban could be (if he was motivated) but if our plan is to get faster, he doesn’t do that. He plays with an edge which could be a good addition… I mean we play Schenn on a top pairing and as much as I love the guy, he is a #7 on a good defence.
  7. I am not denigrating Pearson… but you certainly are trashing Dickenson. Dickenson had a bad year but has a good long decent resume of being an excellent defensive player and PKer. They are both pushed down the lineup with our added depth so are big cap hits to carry. That is where the comparison comes in. Hoglander would be the one I push out (as noted in my lineup that had Pearson in it), but if I could drop the cap hits for Pearson and Dickenson without giving up assets, I do that in a minute. There is an opportunity cost to not having that cap space as it could be utilized in other holes. If we had traded Pearson at the deadline for example, maybe we could have gotten Marino for basically nothing. We would be far better off if that had have happened..
  8. I have high hopes this guy can play and bring something to the table. If you can imagine him with a couple of veterans like Dickenson and Lazar it would mean not too much is being asked of him., especially if Dickenson bounces back like I think he has a good chance to.
  9. I don’t think that is close enough for value. Garland has pretty minimal trade value if you consider the Bjorkstrand move… at least nothing comparable to a 1st round pick I would think. Rathbone has potential but hasn’t shown anything yet. Chychrun is a legit top pairing young D signed to a cheap contract. He is worth a lot.
  10. Wait... now you are completely changing gears. We should sign an older Miller to help us win in the next couple years, and at the same time trade some older players to also get younger? What players exactly are these that have enough value to bring in young players and don't just result in us needing to replace them? The players under contract for your magical year with lots of cap space are: Miller, Boeser, OEL, Hughes, Demko, Lazar, Mikheyev, Garland, Poolman... which if those older players is going to return us good younger assets? Which current older players that we have will return us something that will be play at the top of our lineup in 3 years? Myers? Pearson? Schenn?
  11. Nobody is upset... are you having a bad day? You could always try adding actual content to threads rather than silly trite comments. I know it is work, but hey... you can be better if you try a little.
  12. To me, Motte is a useful player and still an upgrade over Lockwood who should be filling in on injury relief this coming season and not pencilled into a roster spot. Nor should he be riding the pine as a spare, that is what older veteran 4th liners like Motte are for, it doesn't matter if he plays every game or not as it won't affect his development. If Motte is available for a million or under, you do that deal because you know the guy and how he fits in the room. Try to see if Pearson or Dickenson get picked up on waivers even as that cap space would certainly be useful. Kuzmenko-Miller-Podkolzin Garland-Petterson-Boeser Pearson-Horvat-Mikheyev Dickenson-Lazar-Joshua Motte Hoglander is still exempt from waivers so could even be in Abbotsford learning to play a 200 foot game if we want to carry one less spare player or an extra D on the roster. He is a tweener winger now that most organizations have, not good enough for a top 6 role and not fitting a bottom 6 role. He is useful to have when we get an injury in the top 6.
  13. They did say the plan, they also talked about getting younger to get players who fit that timeframe to compete for a long time starting then and having to make "unemotional decisions" this summer on Miller. They signed Miller in the end, and if the plan is still to really be ready 2-3 years from now, then the current regime is as bad as Benning and the Miller signing was downright stupid as it goes against their plan. I really hope that isn't the case. The expected best years for Miller will be in that exact timeframe, with the downside likely starting 3-4 years from now (assuming he even keeps playing at his current level for the first half of his contract which we are just assuming to be the case). We are just left "hoping" that Miller doesn't age like other players and can be one of those rare guys who can perform at top line production at 33-37 years old? We don't have 35+ million in cap space that year because we have to sign current players to raises in between now and then. That 36 million is only 9 players signed, no Petterson, no Bo, no Podkolzin, and only two signed D. 35 million in space by then.... Roughly... - $7 million for Bo - $9 million for Petterson - $3 million for Podkolzin Petterson-Miller-Boeser Mikheyev-Horvat-Garland Podkolzin-XX-XX XX-Lazar-XX XX Hughes-XX OEL-XX XX-Poolman XX-XX Demko XX Fill all the XXs with $17 million dollars, it doesn't add up. There isn't some magical world where things suddenly open up that season, we maybe have one prospect on an ELC in Lekkerimaki, the rest we are likely going to have to find on the free agent market and pay full retail rate for... including finding two top 4 RHD somehow = $17 million left with only 14 players signed and another 10-11 players needing to be signed. Those numbers are probably even pretty conservative as unfortunately that is exactly the timeframe that the cap is expected to make a big jump so bidding on free agents to fill the holes that we have no prospects to fill is going to be really expensive. Maybe Rathbone is good enough and can be had for a $4 million bridge contract and save a couple million vs. a UFA top 4 D who will cost you $6 million.... but that still doesn't make the math work for us to suddenly start getting better. that is going to be treading water at best.
  14. It is silly to suggest that 9% of the cap is just no big deal (it is more than 9% right now). It is a league with parity and the difference between spending a million here and there on inefficient contracts is the difference between winning and losing. That is the same mentality of folks saying Benning's contracts weren't bad... a bunch of contracts signed for too much money and too much term absolutely destroyed the franchise's ability to compete for almost a decade and will continue to have repercussions for years as we face an empty prospect pool due to spending a bunch of assets to get out from under those bad contracts right at the time we should be heading towards a peak window. The shortened window is the likelihood that Miller won't be worth half of what he is getting paid by the end of that contract if he ages like the average NHL player does. An extra $4 million dollars or so is the difference between having Poolman or a top free agent in that roster spot... that is absolutely a difference maker in our chances. We signed Miller, maybe it wasn't the smartest idea... time will tell. Signing Miller should change the gears pretty substantially to push and improve the team now rather than wasting a couple years of his short expected peak performance holding as status quo and waiting for some magical cap space which won't be appearing in the next 2-3 seasons.
  15. Yep, for better or worse the plan seems to be to go for it now. I hope there are changes, if they sign Miller and then just stay the course, that would be a huge disappointment to me.
  16. When was your last conversation with the Arizona GM, you seem really sure exactly what players they want... vs. just a general sense of value they are looking for. $14.6 million in cap space next year without Horvat signed and with only a 14 player roster. Assume almost half for Horvat and you have $7.6 million for 7-8 players. The cap going up doesn't help us as much as folks seem to think. The cap goes up for everyone, so that means contracts are more expensive across the board... not only for us trying to sign UFAs to fill holes, but also extensions to guys like Petterson and Podkolzin. Barring moving equivalent players out in the trade... this is mostly the roster we will have for the next several years. The cap savings in expiring contracts will be eaten up by raises to current efficient contracts. There isn't some magic cap space being invented that allows us to find a top 4 D for free on the open market.
  17. I am not counting Kuzmenko as one of our top 6 forwards (Miller, Petterson, Horvat, Boeser, Garland, Mikheyev). If Kuzmenko can’t make it as third line production, you just move on and find another 3rd liner, they aren’t hard to come by. We don’t need Poolman’s LTIR if we don’t have Poolman on the books.
  18. I agree. I was long on record saying the smart move would be to trade Miller and build towards a horizon of a couple years from now. Our roster seems like it is good enough to compete for a wildcard spot, but isn’t a contender and would need a 1982 style miracle run. The Miller trade didn’t happen, so the next best thing is to try to turn over the roster faster to get better and make the best use of his prime years. Hence the Chychrun move. Probably the biggest bang for the Buck move we could make in the next couple weeks. Motivated seller, great player on a cheap cost controlled contract who fits our team’s weakest area.
  19. Also… “Hey Bo… can you knock $500k off your ask? Look what we just did to push the envelope and make sure you are signing on to a team doing whatever it can to win now.” The Chychrun contract and years of club control is a big part of his value.
  20. The word is that it was the Canucks side that came way up to make the deal happen… not Miller dropping his price. Faced with going into the season with no Miller or Horvat signed and possibly walking at the end of the season was reason enough for JR to blink. JR also said you have to know that the first three years of a long term contract for an older veteran have to be worth the downside on the last half of the contract. That just makes a Miller signing not make sense if you think that the “upside” years are going to be spent on a team still needing a lot of work to be competitive.
  21. I didn’t see that amongst all the Miller posts… but glad to see I am not the only totally crazy person who sees the Miller signing as a reason to shift gears to advance our winning timeline. My deal is basically the same except actually making the money work under our cap. I read some articles which claimed Chychrun can readily play both sides. That kind of pushed things over the edge in regards to paying the price to get him. One of he, OEL, or Hughes on the right suddenly makes a very decent defence and to me puts us in consideration for a top 3 position in the division and almost certainly a lock for a playoff spot at least.
  22. Signing Miller to a long term big dollar contract is also a reversal. You don’t do that if you think the team needs a lot of work and is at least a couple years away which was the mantra right from the start. Like it or not, that move puts us much closer to the all in type of timeframe where we have to leverage his next 3-4 years of hopefully high end play. Mid/late 1st round picks aren’t the same as high 1st round picks. We just have to load on prospects with later rounds and fill gaps in the roster with European free agents, college players, and the many veteran players who are available late in the summer for cheap one year deals. We already would have 6 legit top six forwards with three of them centres (assuming Horvat signs), three top 4D, and a high end starting goalie all signed for the foreseeable future. Add to that supporting guys like Podkolzin, Rathbone, Kuzmenko, Dermott. This year’s first round pick hopefully ready in 3 years as well. Filling out the bottom of that roster as guys like Myers and Pearson roll off their contracts doesn’t require 1st round picks. I would have preferred to trade Miller and aim for a couple years from now… but with him signed, the overall strategy has to be revised as well.
  23. Dumping those two contracts in another deal costs you a 1st… so it is a 1st and Hoglander for Chychrun which is certainly not too much. Maybe we don’t want to pay it, but that is the kind of price for #1 D who is 24 and cost controlled to a remarkably team friendly deal.
  24. Now that we have signed Miller, fixing the D is the last big priority for the team. Looking into Chychrun and he can apparently play both sides, so could play on the right where we need help. He is code controlled for the next three years when we have the biggest cap crunch until the cap starts going up. He would be expensive, but I think with all the smoke about him not being happy… maybe they need to make the move before he holds out from training camp (or maybe that would make Arizona happy). Would you trade: 2023 1st round pick (top 5 protected) 2025 1st round pick Poolman Hoglander Dickenson for Chychrun Leaving us with Kuzmenko-Miller-Podkolzin Garland-Petterson-Boeser Pearson-Horvat-Mikheyev Lockwood (or re-sign Motte)-Lazar-Joshua Dowling Hughes-Chychrun OEL-Myers Dermott-Schenn Burroughs-Keeper Hefty price to pay in futures, but on the other side… you have to home those 1st round picks end up being really late ones. With adding Chychrun we have a other young player taking up a roster spot so less desperate need to find help in the prospect pipeline. Tough call…. But that is a pretty solid team and probably even better when Myers rolls off and you can find a better OEL fit for the same money in free agency.
  25. I am guessing Horvat comes in at 7x8 so he matches dollars with Miller but over more term.
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