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Everything posted by Provost
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[GDT] ‘Tis the Dog Days of Summer, Are we Thinging Before Training Camp?
Provost replied to AngryElf's topic in Canucks Talk
We don't seem to ever do THE thing.... I live in eternal hope for the thing, but it doesn't materialize. Instead we do "a" thing, which generally involves a disappointing lack of thing-ness. -
[Signing] Blackhawks re-sign Nick Folingo
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
When you sign veteran presence to help create a “safe working environment” for the kids, it turns out you don’t need to give them 4 years of term… This is a solid signing for where they are. A little overpay means nothing with their cap situation when you consider the term. One year, flip him at the deadline if they aren’t in the playoff picture (which they might be). -
It is more than about a couple of young players. Chicago is in an enviable position. A metric butt ton of high picks over the next few years, crazy amount of cap space in the last flat cap year where they can get good players for nothing (or even get assets just to take on a good player). They can get a bunch of solid veteran players like Hall with contracts that expire in 1-3 years. Those contracts roll off about when their high picks should be hitting the league. Then they will again have a crap ton of cap space to sign UFAs to fill holes around the kids. They just signed Foligno to a short term contract, I think the idea of them trying to be bad next season should be put to bed. If they don’t end up in the playoff picture they will be able to flip him for another 2nd or 3rd round pick at the deadline. Chicago has the ability to be a playoff team from this season onwards without selling off assets to “win now”.
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[Rumour] Canucks interested in Carson Soucy
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
It is so difficult to figure out and articulate what the best moves should be. It seems pretty clear that there isn’t a practical, likely path to becoming a contender in the foreseeable future. IF we had guy like Petterson and Hughes AND a solid pipeline of high end prospects on the way, that could be a path as those cheap ELCs would also allow for signing UFAs to fill gaps. With that in mind, if your goal is to be a real contender for the Cup, the answer is to tear it down and rebuild so there is a critical mass of prospects and cap space in 2-5 years. Management doesn’t want to do that and wants to make incremental improvements where they hope the team can go from a bottom feeder to a middle of the pack team that has regular playoff appearances. That plan just hopes for an ‘82 like Cinderella run where everything just breaks our way to make a deep run. A guy like Soucy is an incremental improvement that isn’t going to move the needle a lot. He will be better at helping keep the puck out of the net than OEL was. That is worth a couple extra wins a year, so it makes sense if that is the plan. Hronek will be worth an extra couple wins a year over Myers. A healthy Mikheyev (if an equivalent player doesn’t get hurt) is worth another couple of wins a year. Internal development from guys like Petterson is probably worth another couple wins a year. If everything goes well with all that, we are probably looking at being a 93-98 point team, which is the middle of the pack. The variance being how much better or worse the division teams we are competing most with are next year. -
If they retain some on Parayko or take salary back, he is an interesting idea. If we are decided to go all-in, buying low on a guy with that pedigree could work out, especially if you ask less of him. With Hughes as a partner and a solid minute munching second pairing, Parayko drops to 20 minutes a night max… and doesn’t have to carry the whole load. Of course, I think we should be trading Miller for PLD and getting younger… but if the management wants to make a big push over the next year or two, then a move like this makes sense.
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[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
He has been playing hockey likely since he was a little kid and been subject to drafts even before the NHL. UFA after 7 years in the NHL when the average NHL career is 4.5 years. That is most DEFINITELY late in his hockey career. Even if you discount all the below average, average; and above average players and only focus on the top 25% of players, they only average 12 year NHL careers. He will be a UFA at 26. He has not threatened to sit out, his agent said that it is probably better for all sides to move on rather than play out a lame duck year. -
This was the key to the Canucks last winning team. A bunch of guys making half a million or more below full market value adds up to a couple of other high end players. Conversely, a bunch of guys making a million more than they are worth kills your chance to be competitive really quickly. If a team is spending to the cap, it seems like like players should realize that, rather than wonder why they didn’t win and sign $1 million contracts at the end of their careers in vain hopes for a Cup. The difference between $60 million and $70 million in career earnings isn’t going to change their lives or their kids’ lives very much. Spending your career on a team that is a perennial winner, rather than bottom feeder certainly does change your life.
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[Buyout] Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I am betting he gets a 1-2 year, $2-2.5 million deal to play on a team that needs power play help. Whenever Hughes was out of the lineup and OEL started playing those premium offensive minutes, you could see his skill set. When he was played in the role of minute munching hard match up guy, you could see where his skillset didn’t lie… especially with a partner that was terrible in that role as well. -
[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
He is a free agent after this coming season. They need to qualify him, and he will accept the QO and not take them to arbitration and not sign an extension. They could refuse to move him, but then they lose him for nothing. Not sure how that is a good plan for the team. The “game” is the CBA, late in their hockey careers players are finally allowed to choose where they work and live. Something that virtually everyone else gets to do their entire lives. It is just silly for people like you to whinge about that, like the players are being somehow unfair and spoiled. -
He is a big risk that high. Lots of scouts have him way lower. If only it was possible to have acquired another 1st round pick later in the round, like around pick 17 that would be a better spot to try to grab him. Then you could go for a more consensus pick at 11 and then take a little flier on Simashev and end up with two possible top 4D playing on cheap ELCs for you in a couple years.
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Button and Pronman are the only two of the major lists that regularly outperform the pack. Dude knows what he is talking about. You can literally go back to redrafts and compare to his posts and see he does really well.
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Tax is progressive in most jurisdictions... but it also ramps up to the highest bracket in the $100-250k range most places, far below the league minimum... so a slightly lower tax rate on the first hundred thousand is not material when you are talking about millions in salary. The marginal tax rate on a $1 million salary is going to be almost equal to the highest tax bracket rate. This calculator actually uses the marginal tax rate anyways which is accurate. If you change the salary you see the marginal tax rate change... that isn't based on moving to a different tax bracket, it reflects that the first few hundred thousand are at a lower tax bracket. Of course it won't calculate how individual deductions will affect a player personally.
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Most teams lately want to avoid players with term… these teams will need players under club control badly. If there is anything we have a surplus is “ok” contracts that are just slightly overpaid but less than what a undesirable franchise would have to pay on the open market. Garland for Zadorov… Miller+Silovs for PLD+Stanley That is some major surgery right there. Kuzmenko-Petterson-Beauvillier Mikheyev-PLD-Boeser Podkolzin-XX-Hoglander Pearson/Joshua-Aman-XX XX Hughes-Zadorov Soucey-Hronek Stanley-Myers Burroughs-Tryamkin (I had to throw that in there) …defence move up to average or better from one of the worst in the league, plus with some serious size to make up for a smaller forward group. Imagine if four of your top 8 D were over 6'5" and you still have plenty of puck moving ability? Things would look a lot less bleak to me if we could pull off a couple moves like this.
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I don’t know what a Ja Rule is, according to this thread a broke, convicted criminal rapper. While that is a significant upgrade on current ownership, it would be nice to set our sights a little higher with a Ryan Reynolds/Michael Buble led bid. I would look forward to seeing the Sedins play for Wrexham AFC next season!
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[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
So, you are making a bunch of random assumptions not based in any reporting or evidence and then trashing other posters by coming to conclusions based on stuff you invented in your head? Sounds about right for this forum… Winnipeg has been reported to want to get players and not go into a a rebuild. Winnipeg has a hard time attracting high end free agents… because, Winnipeg. The poster suggested Miller, a high end player with eight years of club control as a return. A player they almost certainly couldn’t land if he was a free agent. He immediately is an upgrade on PLD in the short term with their other win-now older players. Oh, and we also have the runner up IIHF player of the year (behind only Bedard), who happens to be a goalie and probably the highest touted goalie prospect outside the NHL right now. We already have a high end young starting goalie, making that prospect an organizational luxury. … and we don’t have any assets? Nonsense. If you were inventing a hockey trade that makes a bunch of sense for both teams, something based on Miller+Silovs for a PLD+Stanley deal makes ridiculously good sense for what both sides are reportedly looking for. As with any trade, it is far less likely to happen than it is to come to fruition. One non-public factor (like PLD not having Vancouver on his list) can scuttle talks. -
What an annoying conference... how about the questions get mic'ed up so we don't spend half the time figuring out who and what the response is referring to.
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[Report/Rumour] Ethan Bear Contract Talks
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
I doubted they would qualify him if he wasn't injured. They can't risk him taking them to arbitration and getting a big award they aren't allowed to walk away from. I think they injury might actually increase the chance of signing him. He will be motivated to sign a cheaper deal so he gets paid while he is out. Otherwise he risks losing an entire year of salary, or if he isn't qualified and becomes a UFA then he might have to settle for signing a pro-rated deal when he is ready to play again for low money as most teams would be wary of bringing in a guy who has to somehow get into mid season form after being off and not being able to train through the offseason. -
[Rumour] Canucks interested in Carson Soucy
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Remember when we were accused of cornering the market on 3rd pairing D. That didn’t work out well for us. Soucy is probably as close to a top 4 guy we will be able to find at a reasonable price… but he is not a player to overpay. We only have two top 4D right now so, barring a trade, we are likely going to take too big a risk. At least Soucy at $3.5 million is a lesser mistake than Myers at $6 who will hopefully be off the books soon. -
A Miller for Dubois deal makes a ton of sense for both teams. Dubois is in the right age range for our other key players, Winnipeg reportedly wants to stay competitive and not rebuild. How does Winnipeg get a top end player to sign there? Get a player with lots of club control left. Miller gives them that, he is also in the age range for a “win now” team who isn’t going to care how badly his contract ages in 5 years as they will likely be in a full rebuild by then. If we had Dubois extended for an 8x$8.5 deal and signed Petterson to an 8x$9.5-10.0… that gives two key players to build around… hopefully on contracts that get efficient as they hit their primes and the cap inflation makes them cheaper.
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[REPORT] Pierre-Luc Dubois has requested a trade
Provost replied to Elias Pettersson's topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
He is 24 years old. JT Miller hadn’t hit 60 points until he was 27. Dubois is a top line centre. It is still to be determined if he is on the low end of that or will develop into the high end of that. If we could have the next eight years with the backbone of our team being two young centres like him and Petterson, that is a great backbone to build around. If a Miller/Dubois (extended) trade is on the table, it would be an absolute no brainer for us. Also a no brainer for Winnipeg if they really want to keep competing. They aren’t likely getting a JT Miller calibre player to sign there as a UFA, and his 8 years of club control would be very valuable to them. -
[Buyout] Zack Kassian, Patrik Nemeth
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
If the Swedish mafia in our front office can get Nemeth for a $1.25-1.5 million deal for a couple years, that is a good bandaid. Veteran guy that can be on a 3rd pairing and is insurance for injuries as he can play higher in emergencies. At that salary you can sit him or send him down without any real cap implications. Gives us a bit of time to marinate guys like Hirose in the minors for a bit, but not be a roadblock for them on the roster if they show they are ready. Nemeth-Myers on a 3rd pairing if we can’t move Myers late in the offseason is also a fine 3rd pairing. Soucy is another relatively cheap option. -
Can Tyler Myers still become a good defenceman?
Provost replied to brokensticks's topic in Canucks Talk
Stecher managed to keep all his advanced stats up even when asked to play a lot more (even 30 minutes a night for a stretch), regardless of partner. Hutton fared ok when with Stecher, but just tanked without him and when asked to do too much. They were both decent 3rd pairing D. Stecher had the ability to move up in the lineup to cover injuries without hurting you. I don’t think most folks fully appreciate the difference between playing 15 minutes a night against sheltered competition and 25 minutes a night in the toughest matchups. Lots of players can do the former, even really well, and very few the latter. We have had such a bad defence for so long, we have put too many of the 3rd pairing guys too high in the lineup with expected results. Andrew Alberts, Aaron Rome, etc were solid 3rd pairing and depth guys the last time we had a good defence. They played their roles really well. If you asked them to play top minutes, we probably wouldn’t have been a playoff team in 2011. We had Bieksa, Erhoff, Salo, Hamhuis, Ballard, and Edler ahead of them. We had three pairings that could have been top 4 on most teams. Nothing even remotely similar since. -
[Buyout] Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Provost replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
Yes… if you are bad enough, you too can get paid $20 million for staying home and have the opportunity to sign somewhere else and make more money. The organizational standard should be, you will get offered a fair contract and if you don’t want to take it… we will move you.