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Everything posted by nuckin_futz
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This whole thing is hilarious. Eddie Van Halen on his illegal cable box "The thing is, I'm f***ing rich but I don't wanna pay for cable".
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Quite an unexpected drop in today's PPI data...... US March PPI -0.5% m/m vs 0.0% expected PPI final demand +2.7% vs +3.0% y/y expected Prior was +4.6% Final demand prices -0.5% m/m vs 0.0% expected Ex food and energy: +3.4% y/y vs +3.4% expected (prior +4.4%) -0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expected (prior 0.0%) I want to highlight the month-over-month numbers because dating back to last July, they've been close to flat. PPI is pipeline inflation and it shows that there currently isn't much in the pipeline. That could change with changes in commodity prices but right now, the mode in markets is that we're shifting back to a low-inflation world.
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If Twitter disappears it will be due to the mismanagement of Musk. I doubt it would ever disappear as some hedge fund would gladly buy it for 1/4 of what Dumb Dumb paid for it. White Twitter is an undeniable cesspool, it is also the fastest way to disseminate news that there is. If it did disappear something similar would appear in short order. Social media is like alcohol. It's great in moderation. Over indulge and you become walking, talking ***hole.
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Bank of Canada holds rates at 4.50%, as expected The highlights of the April 12 Bank of Canada interest rate decision Overnight rate vs 4.50% prior Governing Council continues to assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to relieve price pressures and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target. 2023 GDP forecast 1.4% vs 1.0% prior 2024 GDP forecast 1.3% vs 1.8% prior Sees 2.5% GDP growth in 2025 "Economic growth in the first quarter looks to be stronger than was projected in January, with a bounce in exports and solid consumption growth" Monetary Policy Report projects global growth of 2.6% this year, 2.1% in 2024, and 2.8% in 2025 Previously forecast inflation would fall to around 3% in the middle of 2023 and back to target in 2024 Inflation in many countries is easing Labour markets remain tight and measures of core inflation in many advanced economies suggest persistent price pressures, especially for services. Global economic growth has been stronger than anticipated US growth is expected to slow considerably in the coming months Full text of the statement Full text of the MPR The market was pricing in a 95% chance of no change at today's meeting and all economists in the Reuters survey forecast no move. Bank of Canada governor Macklem and senior deputy Rogers will host a press conference at 11 am ET. This sums up how the BOC sees the economy evolving: "As more households renew their mortgages at higher rates and restrictive monetary policy works its way through the economy more broadly, consumption is expected to moderate this year. Softening foreign demand is expected to restrain exports and business investment. Overall, GDP growth is projected to be weak through the remainder of this year before strengthening gradually next year. This implies the economy will move into excess supply in the second half of this year." That certainly sounds like a central bank that's comfortably on the sidelines. The next question is: When will the cuts come? What changed in the Bank of Canada's forecast for domestic and global growth A look at the changes The Bank of Canada released its quarterly Monetary Policy Report today and it includes the latest estimates on domestic and global growth. The general tenor is that 2023 ex-Japan will be stronger while 2024 will be softer before the world accelerates into 2025. "Global growth is expected to weaken through the second half of 2023 to the first half of 2024, weighed down by restrictive monetary policy in advanced economies," the MPR says. Overall, global growth was revised up 0.7 pp for 2023 and down 0.3 pp for 2024. For Canada, the BOC said Growth in consumption spending has been temporarily boosted in 2023 by stronger-than-expected employment and population growth and by the new temporary transfers announced in government budgets. They also warn that export growth surged unexpectedly in the first quarter of 2023, led by the supply chain improvements in the auto sector and the shipping of the abundant 2022 agricultural harvest. They say this strength is temporary, and export growth has been revised down thereafter due to negative revisions to demand for Canadian exports from the United States. The inflation forecasts are broadly unchanged with the BOC expecting a quick decline to around 3% in the middle of this year followed by a slow grind to 2%. "By the end of this year, inflation is projected to remain well above central bank targets. Further declines in inflation will largely depend on how quickly growth in services prices slows," the BOC said, highlighting the key area to watch. A key difference between the Canadian and US economies at the moment is that the US is throttling immigration while Canada is accelerating it to 1 million people per year (in a country of 38 million). So despite strong jobs growth in Canada, labour can loosen more quickly. Of course, all those people need somewhere to live and that should support Canada's frothy housing market. The BOC says it expects housing will stabilize around the middle of the year with growth in residential investment picking up in H2.
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Brock Boeser named Bill Masterton Trophy nominee
nuckin_futz replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Go with the flow for the win. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
The % of float short in TD is under 1%. That's insignificant and certainly not enough to generate a squeeze. There's barely anything to squeeze. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Practically no one shorts banks. TD has a dividend of 4.67%. When you're short a dividend paying stock you pay the dividend. -
[Signing] Canucks sign Cole McWard
nuckin_futz replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
A Right Shot D -
[Signing] Blue Jackets re-sign Yegor Chinakhov
nuckin_futz replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
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UFC, WWE combine to form $21.4B sports entertainment company The Associated Press WWE and the company that runs Ultimate Fighting Championship will combine to create a $21.4 billion sports entertainment company. A new publicly traded company will be formed that houses the UFC and WWE brands, with Endeavor Group Holdings Inc. taking a 51% controlling interest in the new company. Existing WWE shareholders will hold a 49% stake. The companies put the enterprise value of UFC at $12.1 billion and WWE’s value at $9.3 billion. The new business, which does not yet have a name, will be lead by Endeavor CEO Ari Emanuel. Vince McMahon, executive chairman at WWE, will serve in the same role at the new company. Dana White will continue as president of UFC and Nick Khan will serve as president of WWE. “Together, we will be a $21+ billion live sports and entertainment powerhouse with a collective fanbase of more than a billion people and an exciting growth opportunity,” McMahon said in a statement on Monday. The announcement comes after McMahon, the founder and majority shareholder of WWE, returned to the company in January and said that it could be up for sale. Rumors swirled about who would possibly be interested in buying WWE, with chatter focusing on companies such as Endeavor, Disney, Fox, Comcast, Amazon and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund. Media industry analysts viewed WWE as an attractive acquisition target given its global reach and loyal fanbase, which includes everyone from minors to seniors and a wide range of incomes. The company held its marquee event, WrestleMania, over the weekend. Last year, WWE booked revenue of $1.3 billion. The company is also a social media powerhouse. It surpassed 16 billion social video views in the final quarter of last year. It has nearly 94 million YouTube subscribers and has more than 20 million followers on TikTok. Its female wrestlers comprise five out of the top 15 most followed female athletes in the world, across Facebook, Twitter & Instagram, led by Ronda Rousey with 36.1 million followers. WWE had more than 7.5 billion digital and social media views in January and February of this year, up 15% from the same time frame a year ago. The new company plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the “TKO” ticker symbol. Its board will have 11 members, with six being appointed by Endeavor and five being appointed by WWE. The transaction, which was approved by the boards of Endeavor and WWE, is targeted to close in the second half of the year. Shares of World Wrestling Entertainment Inc., based in Stamford, Connecticut, fell more than 8% before the opening bell. Shares of Endeavor, based in Beverly Hills, California, rose nearly 3%.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
This is a corporate shake up announced in January. They're not turfing burger flippers. -
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Saudi Arabia's decision is due to the fact that they want to chop up American residents and not be held accountable, they'd rather be thanked for it.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Raise the retirement age to 'death', problem solved. -
[Waivers] Joey Anderson
nuckin_futz replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
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Saudi Arabia and other gulf states announce 1 million barrels per day in oil output cuts Shock news from Saudi Arabia and other gulf states This is a bolt of lightning out of the blue for the oil bulls . Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary 500k bpd oil production curb through year end and that was followed by several other gulf states joining in: Iraq to cut by 211k bpd Kuwait to cut by 128K bpd Oman to cut by 40k bpd UAE to cut by 144k bpd Add it all up and that's 1,023,000 barrels per day, or about 1% of global oil output. That's a massive swing in a physical market that already looked like it would tighten substantially into the summer. The move shows the vulnerability of the US after unloading about 1 million barrels per day for six months last year (and into this year). What's especially notable is that this announcement goes through year end. It's also a slap in the face to reports that the UAE was thinking of ditching OPEC as their participation is particularly notable. Tomorrow is OPEC's JMMC meeting and we might see talk from them that the oil market is oversupplied and that action was needed. In any case, this is puts a bow on this month's oil bottom and I'd be surprised if we don't see $80 WTI on Monday. Update: Add in Algeria for 48k bpd, Gabon for 80 kbpd and Kazakhstan for 78k bpd. Also keep in mind that early this year Russia announced 500k bpd through June but they've now extended that through year end. So all told, that's nearly 1.7 mbpd. There's talk about a $10 rise in crude prices on this.