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nuckin_futz

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Everything posted by nuckin_futz

  1. 929,000 Canadians said to apply for jobless benefits last week vs 27,000 normally Tue 24 Mar 2020 17:50:28 GMT That's an astonishing number, from Bloomberg sources The population of Canada is just shy of 40 million and the workforce is around 25 million people. So nearly one-in-25 people were laid off in a single week. Trudeau last week highlighted that a year ago, this week in March had 27,000 employment claims. This is a 34x increase. The US system is more scattered and shutdowns haven't been as aggressive or abrupt so it's unfair to extrapolate to a single week but if you did, it would imply 7.1 million jobless claims. That's more than 10x the all time one-week record.
  2. Italy reports 743 coronavirus deaths vs 602 yesterday Tue 24 Mar 2020 17:06:23 GMT Second-deadliest day in the pandemic Total cases in Italy rose to 69,176 from 63,927 yesterday. New cases 5,249 vs 4,789 yesterday. As dark as these headlines are, there are signs of a flatter curve. That's an 8% rise in cases, which is a step in the right direction. US CDC says 44,232 cases vs 33,453 a day ago Tue 24 Mar 2020 17:20:02 GMT The nightmare is unfolding Johns Hopkins has the US total number at 46,805. US reporting is a bit of a mess right now but not as big of a mess as the testing is. Meanwhile, Trump is on Fox saying Americans have to get back to work and they can socially distance themselves at work. He compared virus deaths to auto crash deaths. He also said he'd love to have the economy open by Easter (April 12). Meanwhile, Matt Weller (@MWellerFX) notes that #NotDying4WallStreet is trending on twitter.
  3. Madrid to use ice rink as morgue for coronavirus victims MADRID — A Madrid ice rink is to be used as a makeshift morgue for coronavirus victims, as the number of cases in the capital rose to 10,575 and 1,263 deaths, city authorities said on Monday. Palacio de Hielo mall, home to a 1,800 square meter, Olympic-sized ice rink, has offered its venue as a morgue, a city hall spokeswoman told Reuters. The repurposing of the space will be coordinated by Madrid’s regional government and military emergency units, which have been deployed across Spain over the past week to help deal with the coronavirus crisis. In Madrid, struggling with Spain’s heaviest virus load, the municipal funeral home announced it would stop collecting bodies from Tuesday due to a shortage of equipment. Private funeral homes are operating in the capital city The ice rink is close to the IFEMA conference center, where beds have been set up to treat coronavirus patients. The Madrid region could treat some 1,300 patients at IFEMA this week, and 126 people have already been admitted, the regional government said. The number of coronavirus cases rose to 33,089 on Monday in Spain, the hardest-hit European country after Italy. **************** Sad times, but if you need to keep the bodies refrigerated what else can you do?
  4. India announces total ban on leaving the home starting at midnight Tue 24 Mar 2020 14:40:08 GMT India goes on full lockdown Indian PM Modi has announced a total lockdown of the country for 21 days to stop the virus. That's another major hit to global demand. With 1.3 billion people, this marks the biggest lockdown in world history. That's 17.5% of the world's population. India is also responsible for 5% of global oil demand, 4% for metals and 4-5% of global GDP. Oil demand in 2019 was 4.7 million barrels per day. ******************* India still reporting just 519 cases. Neighboring Pakistan has 918 cases and about 1/10th of the population.
  5. Respect your opinion. But you can't work people to the bone. They're only human. Humans break.
  6. I don't have a problem with her taking a day off. She's in charge of making huge decisions and I personally do not want her run down and stressed to the max while making those decisions. All the Dr's, nurses, other healthcare professionals need a day off from all the stress or they will go mad. We need them to be healthy so we can stay healthy. Let her spend a day with her husband, kids, pets etc. We'll all be better for it. Plus I doubt Bonnie's phone ever stops ringing on her "day off".
  7. You can verify the movement of people. You can't fake people moving.
  8. Good news from the epicenter............ Hubei province says to remove travel restrictions on leaving Wuhan on 8 April Tue 24 Mar 2020 04:53:12 GMT The Hubei province and Wuhan is starting to open up Meanwhile, they also announced that travel restrictions in and out of the province will be removed starting from tomorrow, 25 March. This is a positive sign for China and also for the world, in showing that there is light at the end of the tunnel and that lockdown/containment measures do work.
  9. Canada to introduce new powers to spend money and raise taxes without having to get the approval of Parliament Tue 24 Mar 2020 02:42:46 GMT Canadian media Global News with the report: Global News has seen a copy of the legislation set to be tabled Tuesday when a small number of MPs from all parties return to Ottawa to pass a multibillion-dollar coronavirus support package. The legislation grants Finance Minister Bill Morneau extraordinary new powers to spend, borrow and tax without having to get the approval of opposition MPs until December 2021. The legislation has implications for the ruling party beyond just what is intended. Link here for more.
  10. Ontario and Quebec order non-essential businesses to close The Ontario and Quebec governments have announced the near-complete shutdown of their provinces’ economies in a bid to halt the spread of the novel coronavirus. Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced plans on Monday for non-essential businesses to close across the province, but said food, medicine and “essential products” would remain available. Urging all Ontarians to stay home, he said the order, issued under the province’s state of emergency powers, would come into effect Tuesday at 11:59 p.m. and last for 14 days, but could be extended if necessary. “This is not the time for half measures,” Mr. Ford said Monday. “This decision was not made lightly. And the gravity of this order does not escape me.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford is ordering the closure of all non-essential businesses in the province to help deal with the spread of COVID-19. Ford says the order will be effective Tuesday at 11:59 p.m. and will be in place for at least 14 days. He says he will release the list of businesses Tuesday that will be allowed to stay open, but food will remain on the grocery store shelves and people will still have access to medication. The Canadian Press He said the province will release a list on Tuesday of businesses permitted to stay open. The LCBO and Beer Store were expected to be on that list, although officials could not confirm that as of Monday afternoon. Quebec Premier François Legault made a similar announcement on Monday, mandating that all non-essential businesses in Quebec were to close Tuesday night until April 13. Only grocery stores, pharmacies, banks, media and a few other services will be allowed to stay open, Mr. Legault said in Quebec City. Companies that can operate with employees working remotely can also continue, he said. “Quebec will hit pause for three weeks,” Mr. Legault said. “The faster we can limit contact between people, the faster we can limit the contagion and get back to normal life. I’m asking all Quebeckers to co-operate.” The directive is applicable to companies in construction and to aluminum smelters as well as other major employers, the Premier said. There could be exceptions. "We don’t want to create catastrophes, obviously,” the Premier said. “But it includes all goods that are manufactured that are not essential.” The province pledged to release a list of what it considers essential services. Ontario last week declared a state of emergency – closing bars and forcing restaurants to offer only takeout, while banning gatherings of 50 people or more – as it attempts to slow the spread of the potentially deadly virus COVID-19, which threatens to overwhelm the province’s health system. “We will not lose this battle,” Mr. Ford said Monday. “We will get ahead of it.” The Ontario Premier suggested that some construction sites would remain open, but urged workers to leave sites if their employers have not brought in social-distancing measures or are forcing them to make do with unsanitary washrooms. He said he believes the majority of businesses and the public will comply, but if anyone breaks the order, there will be consequences. Solicitor-General Sylvia Jones said police will be part of the enforcement measures, if necessary. Mr. Ford also said he doesn’t believe children in the province will be returning to school on April 6, when a two-week closing the province ordered for after the week-long March Break was scheduled to end. He said his Education Minister would provide further details in the coming days. “The reality is April the 6th is not realistic right now,” he said. “We are in a state of emergency.” Meanwhile, Toronto Mayor John Tory also declared a state of emergency on Monday, after the first death over the weekend of a Toronto resident related to COVID-19. In a briefing live-cast from his condo, where he is in isolation after a recent trip to London, Mr. Tory said there was “no list of things” he was planning to do with his new powers, but that he needs flexibility to deal with a changing situation. “There are things that come up every morning that you didn’t know were going to be happening that morning, and sometimes the machinery of government is just going to function better in responding to those needs … if we have this declaration in place,” he said. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-ontario-quebec-order-non-essential-businesses-to-close/ ************ BC won't be far behind.
  11. New York State alone has more cases than France.
  12. There are still some pretty big problems facing the market. The headlines regarding the virus will be unrelenting for sometime. As will be the economic headlines. This is the week we will see the impact of the virus start to show itself in the North American economic data. Apart from that, the market still needs to deleverage. Think of the market as a business that has been flooded. There is a lot of mess to clean up before the grand re-opening. As for banks, they are going to have a tough slog in a zero interest rate environment. Also, keep in mind the Federal Reserve launched QE1 in late Nov 2008, the markets did not bottom out until Mar 2009. Then they did not look back for years.
  13. Neither do they. They're making it up as they go along. Does any of this look organized?
  14. The Fed has just taken all risk out of banking and lending Mon 23 Mar 2020 12:22:58 GMT This move is unprecedented The Fed is buying everything. Today's announcement is unprecedented in both size and scope. It is a complete perversion of market functioning and a nuclear bomb more than a bozooka. It basically renders banking meaningless and puts all the risk on the Fed. It's a complete gift to lenders. You can still loan people money at 20% on a credit card but the package up the debt and sell it to the Federal Reserve. In the Treasury, agency and MBS market, pricing doesn't matter anymore. US 10-year yields are down 10 bps on the announcement to 0.70%. The Fed has simply said it will buy unlimited amounts of government-backed bonds in "amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy." We have no idea if that means 1% yields or 0% further out the curve. Not only that, but 'large employers' -- corporate America -- will buy newly-issued bonds and in the secondary market up to 4 years with no interest or principal for 6 months. So essentially, Exxon can launch a bond and sell it directly to the Fed. What's especially interesting about this is that it's only open to companies with investment grade credit ratings. However there is are hundreds of companies right on the cutoff to junk that should be downgraded any day. Without the Fed buying, that cliff becomes even steeper. Finally, the Fed said it will soon establish a "Main Street Business Lending Program" to make similar loans to small-and-medium sized businesses. ***************** RIP Capitalism.
  15. Trump considers easing stay-at-home warnings to curb economic rout Mon 23 Mar 2020 12:51:48 GMT That seems premature There is now a second report -- from Bloomberg -- that Trump is considering changing his messaging. A report about 50 minutes ago from the NYT suggests something similar as does Trump's latest tweets. "WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF," Mr. Trump tweeted in all capital letters shortly before midnight. "AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!" On Friday, I wrote about how policymakers were likely to switch to a Plan B and this is it. What worries me is that the Fed is pivoting so quickly. Social distancing measures haven't even set in for most of the US. A harsh 15-day period followed by a slow restart would slow the virus and pay dividends over time. Trump highlighting an end to it already is going to mean people don't take it seriously and cases could spike higher than otherwise. As for the market impact, I think that could backfire if/when cases explode throughout the country. This is basically a pivot towards something more like the 'herd immunity', which I also warned about.
  16. Fed establishes TALF, to do open-ended Treasuries and MBS purchases in the amounts needed Mon 23 Mar 2020 12:02:17 GMT Fed launches more measures to support the economy and transmission of monetary policy Will buy Treasuries, MBS in the amounts needed to ensure smooth market functioning and transmission of monetary policy Establishes two new facilities for lage employers One facility is for new bond, loan issuance; one is for outstanding corporate bonds Establishes term asset-backed loan facility (TALF) TALF backed by student, auto, credit card and SBA-backed loans among other assets Will soon announce 'main street business lending program' to support SMEs Daily and term repo rates to be reset to offering rate of 0% For starters, the Fed will purchase $75 billion of Treasuries and $50 billion of agency MBS each day this week. The Fed is practically going to reach the point where they will be buying everything in the market at this stage. The full press release can be found here. Treasury yields have fallen sharply on the back of the announcement here with 10-year yields dragged to 0.72% from 0.80% earlier. ************************ And there you have it. The Fed is buying EVERYTHING. BUY THE ****ING DIP. MBS = Mortgage backed securities
  17. K this is interesting .......... US president Trump: We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself Mon 23 Mar 2020 04:03:55 GMT Trump tweets and makes reference to coronavirus containment measures "WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!" With so much economic carnage and the risk of financial dislocations causing a severe and permanent impact on the world economy, these are distressing times for central banks and governments everywhere. As we pointed out last week, we may very well be heading towards Plan B - and that could be what is Trump referring to in his latest post above. ******************* There is speculation that is what plan B could be referring to. It's more than a little macabre but there are going to be some very painful choices for decision makers to make in the not so distant future. Sounds like they are seriously considering the 'herd immunity' plan. It's all speculation at this point. Stay tuned. ............ These plans to save the economy aren't going to work. Time for Plan B Fri 20 Mar 2020 13:06:29 GMT The costs are too high It's time to move to economic Plan B. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh was on CNBC laying out a plan to save the economy. The plan so far is provide unlimited liquidity for the short-term to buy a bit of time, followed by broad and general loan backstops to the entire economy. That would last something like 90 days or longer while everyone stays inside. It's not going to work. The costs are stupidly high and even if you hold out for 90 days, the virus would just come roaring back afterwards. So we will be putting out fires for a year waiting for a virus, bailing everyone out along the way. Just now Italy's Lombardi regional head as the government to tighten the lockdown because the virus is still spreading too fast. They've called in the army to enforce it more strictly. If you think it through, that probably turns into something like a $10 trillion deficit. That's simply too high of a price to pay. Not only that but socially I don't think people are ready to tolerate 90 days of extreme social distancing. I don't even think we can last a month. The stress it's going to put on relationships, families, household finances is too high. Small drinking and drug habits are turning into big ones daily. Abusive relationships are turning into something darker. In the bigger picture, social and political pressure is building and we're going to reach the point where people want to tear down the system. No one at the top wants that. So what's Plan B? I think governments are going to come to the realization that the costs are too high. You have to hope that within the next 2-4 weeks there is some real progress on the treatment side. I wrote about some potential therapies yesterday and I believe (hope) that one of them cuts mortality in half. I think at that point we try to get back to normal. The healthcare system is still going to implode and healthcare workers are going to walk off the job so we'll need huge financial incentives to keep them working but the plan is going to be to get people back working and tell those over-70 to stay indoors. Ultimately, you hope that keeps mortality below 1% and it's dark but losing 1% of the world is better than a global depression. ************ Keep in mind that's all just speculation and opinion.
  18. Sounds like what would be best suited for you are ETF'S (exchange traded funds). These are instruments which are essentially funds but trade like stocks. Symbol SPY = S&P 500, gives you a small piece of all 500 companies. Pays a dividend Symbol DJIA = Dow Jones, gives you a piece of all 30 companies in that index, pays a dividend Symbol QQQ = Nasdaq index, pays a dividend There are ETF's for just about everything. Gold, silver, home builder stocks, healthcare stocks, specific countries have ETF's focusing on them etc. https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/insights/etf-education-overview.htm
  19. 142 new cases across the country. Safe to assume a decent chunk in BC.
  20. Not sure if this is the reason but just a thought. Singapore and Taiwan are islands. It's much easier to control an island. Singapore is pretty authoritarian for a democracy. Is Charles Dubin still around?
  21. JT won't escape the fallout. As long as the Cons manage to elect someone who isn't a complete Goober that person will be the next Prime Minister.
  22. All politicians are looking for memorable sound bytes for their next election campaigns and fund raising etc. Sadly, that's what being a politician is all about. I don't think you have to wait a few months to see what could have been done better if anything. They, along with everyone else had a 5 week head start to get prepared while the virus ransacked China and the Far East. We all knew it was coming. It was already in the west 5 weeks ago. So to find yourself in a position where hospitals are begging the general public to sew masks and gowns if they can. That should have been preventable. Scrambling factories to ramp up production now, rather than then. You can pass judgment on that now can't you? Having told people it's not a big deal and that it will go away. You can pass judgment on that right now.
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