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Everything posted by nuckin_futz
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[GDT] Canucks @ Coyotes l Thursday, March 16, 2023 l 7:00 pm
nuckin_futz replied to -DLC-'s topic in Canucks Talk
Wants to play closer to home? Like actual home? -
[GDT] Canucks @ Coyotes l Thursday, March 16, 2023 l 7:00 pm
nuckin_futz replied to -DLC-'s topic in Canucks Talk
If they win the lottery Bedard will play next year in an arena smaller than his Junior arena. -
Where will the Canucks be two years from now?
nuckin_futz replied to OldFaithfulCap's topic in Canucks Talk
Either right where we are now out of the playoffs and picking 8-14 or 1st round playoff fodder. Seen this movie before many times. -
It is the norm. Oil today closed at $67.61. Down about 12% in 2 days. I'd be willing to bet if it holds around these levels before too long you'll see a nice dump in gasoline prices.
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No one in this thread seems to believe data like this but here ya go ......... US February PPI final demand 4.6% YoY versus 5.4% YoY expected US February 2023 producer price data PPI final demand falls to 4.6% Prior PPI 6.0% (was expodus4ecting 5.4%) revised it to 5.7% PPI MoM -0.1% versus 0.3% expected (0.7% prior revised to 0.3% - was expecting at the time 0.4%)) PPI Ex food energy YoY 4.4% vs 5.2% expected (prior 5.4%) PPI Ex food and energy MoM 0.0% vs 0.4% expected (prior 0.5% revised to 0.1% - was expecting 0.1%) PPI free-trade -0.8% transportation and warehousing down -1.1% The PPI data is much cooler than expected. Moreover the prior months will be revised lower with the year on year down to 5.7% from 6.0%. The high watermark for PPI was 11.3% in June 2022. Lower producer prices is potentially good news for inflation down the road if producers pass on the declining prices to consumers. The two year yield is now down around -30 basis points and back below the 4% level at 3.918%. The 10 year yield is down -15 basis points at 3.484% as a result of the weaker retail sales and PPI data.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Instead of trying to pick individual winners you might want to take a look at XLF. It's an ETF of major of US financials. 25% of the fund is comprised of Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan. Also has stakes in Goldman, American Express, Bank of America, BlackRock. Plus it pays a 2.16% dividend while you wait. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Credit Suisse CEO: We are a strong bank and overshoot all regulatory requirements That's not the kind of thing you want to have to announce Our liquidity base is strong The material weakness cited in our report refers to financial reporting controls; has no impact on financial results Situation in the US is not comparable and factually has nothing to do with Credit Suisse Shares of Credit Suisse are down 28% today and the market cap is down to 6.3 billion. CDS have spiked. It's not a pretty picture. *************** Kind of like giving the embattled head coach a vote of confidence. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
The rich get richer. Mind your P's and Q's or 'Golden Slacks' will eat your lunch ........... More on Goldman Sachs buying the SVB bond portfolio Headline on this from earlier is here: Goldman Sachs bought SVB's bond portfolio before federal regulators took over A little more now: SVB said that Goldman Sachs bought a bond portfolio on which it booked a $1.8 billion loss Reuters adds: the loss on the portfolio was the reason Silicon Valley Bank attempted a $2.25 billion stock sale last week the capital raise was thwarted as depositors fled and investors fretted SVB would have needed even more capital The portfolio SVB sold to Goldman Sachs on March 8 consisted mostly of U.S. Treasuries and had a book value of $23.97 billion, SVB said. The transaction was carried out "at negotiated prices" and netted the bank $21.45 billion in proceeds, SVB added -
Because he doesn't play in the American Hockey League.
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The vast majority of the problem causing assets in question are long dated treasuries. Simply hold them to maturity and redeem. Kind of the same principle as in 2008/9 with the creation of the "bad bank" to temporarily hold the bank's toxic assets while they sorted things out. The Government had time to wait it out, the banks didn't. Of course endless rounds of QE guaranteed it would work. This situation is more an issue of time rather than toxic assets.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
I believe it's raised through quarterly fees on FDIC covered banks. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
I agree with much of what Adam Button has written here ......... Web 3.0 died last week Or at least it did on Wall Street The promise of Web 3.0 was decentralization. The idea was to take power away from banks and big tech and put it on the blockchain, tokenize it or let people control it themselves in some other way --a more-democratic internet. It was a powerful idea that attracted hundreds of billions of dollars in investment. The results so far have fallen far short of they hype. The uses of crypto have been limited, NFTs are a joke and scams are rampant. The Web 3.0 hype along with ultra-low interest rates kicked off a Web 1.0-style dot-com bubble. For months, every press release referred to blockchain, crypto or some other kind of revolutionary way of doing things that aren't particularly hard to do today. Two major conduits for the flow of money from investors into Web 3.0 were Silvergate Bank for crypto and Silicon Valley Bank for tech startups. Both banks failed this week and I can't help but think of that as the tombstone for an era. That certainly doesn't mean the end of crypto, defi or tech venture capital but it's a sign of which way the wind is blowing. These are all expensive projects and the money is gone. It took a decade for tech to recover from the dot-com bust and this will be no different. That's not to say bitcoin prices will crash. Bitcoin has separated itself from many of the rug pulls and scams. It's been volatile but functional but beyond that it's a short list. Who would want to invest in a space where money isn't flowing and regulators are cracking down. In tech, it's now widely recognized as a bubble and venture capital investors no longer have an off-ramp into capital markets. Moreover, cheap borrowing rates are done. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank will mean that companies can't make payroll text week and, presumably, will be laying off workers in short order. There were $200 billion in deposits held there and only accounts up to $250,000 were insured. In the company's last 10K it said that uninsured deposits were $151.5 billion. Much -- hopefully all -- of that money will be recovered but it will take time to sell the corresponding assets. It's the kind of mess that will slowly starve the industry of capital. In summary, we all knew there were bubbles in crypto and tech venture capital. The poetry of the two flagship banks in those areas failing in the same week From the ashes The good news is that Web 4.0 is already here. Artificial intelligence is capturing imaginations and delivering incredible results. Much of the remaining money in Web 3.0 is quickly pivoting to AI and while some of that is the usual theme-chasing, there will be results. It's a good thing too because that's a lifeline for technology more broadly and will transform the world before the decade is done. -
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To be honest I don't have a wishlist. Frankly I really don't care that much anymore. I find I follow the team out of habit more than anything. It is what it is.
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[Signing] Canucks sign Kirill Kudryavtsev
nuckin_futz replied to -Vintage Canuck-'s topic in Trades, Rumours, Signings
This one agent holds way too much power over the roster. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
“Held to maturity” bonds are about to be a big problem The problem that felled Silicon Valley Bank is widespread Here's the crux of the problem. Banks have deposits and they need to do something with them. They can lend them out and often do, but you can't lend it all out. What was seen as something safe to do with the rest was to invest it in the safest investments in the world: US Treasuries. The problem is that those investments weren't so safe. As the Federal Reserve rapidly hiked rates the 1.6% yielding 10-year notes are suddenly paying 4%. That means the prices of those bond have fallen from, say, 100 to 96. That doesn't look like a big loss but there are huge amounts invested. There are rules that banks don't have to 'mark-to-market' those losses because there are no losses if they hold them to maturity. The problem is if everyone wants their money back. That's what happened to Silicon Valley Bank. When worries about it began to spread, companies began to pull cash and they needed to sell those Treasuries. When they sold them at 96 instead of 100, there was a shortfall. They tried to plug that with an equity raise but it was poorly handled and only added to the run on the bank. Now we have contagion. Shares of other banks are falling by 40% and you can bet that account holders are liquidating like they did at Silicon Valley Bank. Will they have to sell those bonds and take losses? Chillingly, here's a story from November in the WSJ about exposure for the biggest US banks. "For the 24 big U.S. lenders in the KBW Bank Index, the combined balance-sheet value of held-to-maturity bonds was $2.21 trillion as of Sept. 30, according to a Wall Street Journal review of their filings. The market value was $1.91 trillion, or 14% less. The gap was negligible when the year started." That's a $300 billion hole. Bank of America's exposure is illustrative. "Among the KBW index members, the lender with the largest gap by dollar amount was Bank of America Corp. Its latest balance sheet showed $644 billion of held-to-maturity bonds. Their market value was $528 billion, according to an accompanying disclosure. The $116 billion difference was equivalent to 43% of Bank of America’s $270 billion of total equity, or assets minus liabilities, as of Sept. 30. At the start of the year, before rates surged, the market value and balance-sheet value were within 1% of each other." Here's a graphic from the WSJ: Is everyone going to pull their deposits from Bank of America? No but the worry is that the latest panic will spread to a number of smaller banks as deposits are yanked and moved to too-big-to-fail banks. Ultimately, bank have a way to fight back: Higher deposit rates but that doesn't work until confidence is restored, which could take action from the Fed or Treasury. Maybe this will fizzle out on its own but this is the situation right now and worries about 'held to maturity' bonds will linger. -
Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Shares of Silicon Valley Bank halted with news pending, down 63% premarket Silicon Valley Bank put a fright into the market yesterday as it had to sell stock to raise capital in order to plug a hole in the balance sheet due to Treasury liquidation sales. The bank is obviously having a very bad week, falling 89% and with Peter Thiel and others telling clients (heavily in venture capital) to pull funds. If the news is that it's been taken over then risk assets will take the news positively. If the government has to step in to wind it down, I also think that will be taken positively but I'm less confident. Anything disorderly will be a problem. CNBC's David Faber reports that yesterday's capital raise failed, which isn't a big surprise given where it's trading in the pre-market. He also said that the company has hired advisors to sell itself and noted that 'large financial institutions' are 'taking a look'. The equity value of this bank is down to something like $3 billion and there are around $220 billion in deposits. It's obviously a fire sale at this point but even if it went for $1, the market would like that. I don't imagine it will be a long wait. Why contagion from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse is a certainty Why wouldn't you pull your money out? A look at share prices of other regional banks as California regulators close Silicon Valley Bank: First Republic Bank -23% Western Alliance Bancorp -40% PacWest Bancorp -33% Signature Bank -22% If you had your money there or in another of the dozens of regional banks that are under fire, what would you do right now? If it's less than $250K, you have nothing to worry about. The FDIC said deposits in Silicon Valley Bank below that level will be available on Monday in what's a remarkably efficient outcome for regular people. Bit Silicon Valley Bank said it has $151.5 billion above the FDIC insured limits. That money -- or at least of good portion of it -- will be locked up now as the FDIC attempts to sell Silicon Valley Bank assets. If you have to make payroll on Monday, good luck. Now the above list of banks and many others may be fine but if you're a business owner with more than $250K parked there, what do you do? There's a reason that shares of JPMorgan are up 1.3% today while regional banks crumble. FDIC takes control of Silicon Valley Bank Regulators close down Silicon Valley Bank Silicon Valley Bank was closed today by the California Dept of Financial Protection and Innovation, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. The FDIC will pay uninsired depositors an advance dividend within the next week and a receivership certificate for the remainder of uninsured funds. The FDIC said the bank had $175.4B in deposits in the bank. Shares of SIVB never opened today but will presumably go to zero with bond holders taking a haircut as well. And that is why you get your money above $250K out of a bank that's in trouble and it's why bank runs happen. It's a bad outcome from any depositors who might now find themselves in a liquidity crunch. The good news is that this was swift but the question is whether it spreads. Right now, shares of First Republic are holding up ok. The KRE regional bank ETF has pared losses but there's been some fresh selling in the past 30 minutes. Shares of JP Morgan are higher today. -
RIP Garry Rossington the last surviving original member.