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Everything posted by nuckin_futz
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CNN's Chris Cuomo had an interesting take on this last night. He basically said ........ In the early 1940's tens of thousands of young men volunteered to go over seas to fight for their country. Knowing many would never return. Some even lied about their age and health status. That's how badly they wanted to go fight. Women went to work in munitions factories to help the war effort. ............. All people are being asked to do now is stay home sit on the couch and watch Netflix or play Fortnight. And some even refuse to do that much. There's a reason why that generation is labelled the "Greatest Generation ever" and this one is not.
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2008 was a problem of credit freezing and debt. They wallpapered over the problem in 2008 with mountains of debt. We basically have all these zombie companies running around, who exist solely to service their debt. Like the smaller oil companies. Let me explain it like this. It's like if a car crashed into your house and instead of fixing the hole, you just wallpapered over it. And pretended everything was fine. Eventually you have to fix it or demolish the house. If they can't reinflate we will have to face our debt demons.
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The Central Banks don't know how to save anything. Trillions of dollars in bailouts just 11 years after the last trillions in bailouts. These idiots never learn. Usually it takes a generation to repeat some of the same mistakes. These fools are in overdrive. It was just 3 weeks ago we were being told it's the greatest economy ever. Think about that.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
I'd agree if the only problem was the virus. However, now it's seems the debt skeletons are coming home to roost much quicker than anticipated. Look at airlines. They can't even go 3 weeks in these conditions without needing bailouts. Where are the cash reserves? It's stunning. If Central banks can't reinflate, the bursting will be immense. If they lose control of the bond market and interest rates it's game over. -
The problem here is you'd have to shut down all major global markets. Tokyo, Hong Kong, London, Frankfurt, Paris etc. Otherwise you're just putting yourself at a disadvantage. What if people need to sell some stocks to pay bills? What do they do once their capital is frozen? I have seen countries instituting short selling bans. South Korea banned it for 6 months. These bans don't work and really are just to quell public anger. To make it look like governments are doing something.
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Not interested in participating in arguments in this thread. We have a difference of opinion. We'll agree to disagree.
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
Maybe a bit of exaggeration in this article but you guys drooling over Canadian oil companies and their dividends should be careful. There is a very real possibility that oil goes to near zero Tue 17 Mar 2020 15:03:03 GMT We could see a situation where oil is 'no bid' Goldman Sachs today lowered its Brent oil forecast to $20 and Saudi Arabia ramped up its exports to 10 million barrels per day. In the note, Goldman said it believes that crude demand is now down 8 million barrels per day. Others estimate upwards of 10 mbpd. "Large commitments from core-OPEC for April/May deliveres pushes the net supply increase near 3m barrels per day, which, when combined with the demand losses, results in an April/May surplus of 7 million barrels per day, which will likely breach system capacity during 2Q20," they wrote. The phrase 'breach system capacity' is code for: There is nowhere to put it. Crude can go into storage for a period but capacity is limited. At some point, all the tanks are full. We're already in a situation where gasoline prices are selling for less than a barrel of oil. That means that if a refinery buys a barrel of oil and turns it into gas, it sells for less. Refineries will completely halt purchases if no one is buying gasoline. There will be people who will rent tankers for floating storage and buy oil now and sell it in the futures market for late 2020 or 2021 when demand rises but even that trade is limited by the number of storage facilities. Once there is nowhere to put it and no one buying it at any price, the only thing that can happen is price falling. There's no limit to have far it can fall. There is a very real possibility it goes below $10, if not all the way to near zero. The declines won't start until there are mass shut-ins of production from major private producers and waves of bankruptcy. -
We can't change our geography. Anyway, you have a great day too Deb,
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If you have a favorite restaurant or business. Buy a gift certificate from them so they get the dough now and you can use it later.
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We are in a position of weakness. They are ten times our size. Yes, he stood his ground against the Saudi's human rights abuses. They flipped their lid and retaliated and now the Saudi's have destroyed our oil industry. That's what happens when we punch above our weight.
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It's pretty obvious isn't it?
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Damned if we do, damned if we don't. I bet there's hardly anyone crossing the border now. Anyone here planing to go do a little shopping at Bellis Fair this weekend? Didn't think so. The economic fallout of this is going to be massive. Beyond what anyone can imagine. And we just lost our oil industry for the most part. We live right beside the world's only true super power. We are David , they are Goliath. We need them way more than they need us. And that will be true more than ever when we're coming out of this. Sadly, we are in no position to piss them off.
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We're on the verge of helicopter money Tue 17 Mar 2020 14:19:50 GMT Support is building Jake Sherman at Politico reports today that support is building in Washington to cut a $1000 cheque to every adult American. Mitch McConnell just said Congress needs to provide direct assistance to workers, families and help small business. In Canada today there were hints about several similar plans that could be rolled out tomorrow. In Denmark, companies are getting state aid to pay 75% of salaries. I wrote last week about one of my worries right now: That governments everywhere aren't going to be able to process jobless claims fast enough. The wave that's about to hit will be unprecedented. ******************* If you don't recognize him the guy in the picture is former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. AKA Helicopter Ben.
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This is where the moral hazard from the 2008 bank bailout becomes extraordinarily costly Tue 17 Mar 2020 13:39:47 GMT The costs of the 2008 bailout weren't then, they're now The 2008 bank bailouts cost $700B but the real cost was far greater. The anger from the bailout is still fresh more than 11 years later. Americans are angry (and about to get more angry) that so many on Wall Street walked away unscathed and with millions in bonuses. Even those who were largely responsible for the bad loans and derivatives were saved. No one went to jail. Now we have a virus situation where no one is responsible. This isn't anyone's fault. Yet millions of workers are about to lose their jobs, people won't be able to pay mortgages, small businesses will fail and industries will collapse. By 2008-09 standards, everyone deserves a bailout more than ever. The standard has been set. The bailouts also sent a signal to businesses that they didn't need to prepare for a rainy day. Many businesses were buying stock over the past 3 years rather than building cash positions -- airlines in particular (who spent 96% of free cash flow on buybacks). Financial advisors are always telling people to set aside 3-months of costs and yet some of the world's largest companies haven't done the same. The first chapter in this bailout is airlines. By almost any standards they deserve some kind of bailout. These are essential economic services and these shutdowns are way beyond their control. The thing is, once you bail them out, you have to bail everyone out. If shareholders get bailout out it sends an awful, costly message. If cruise ships get bailed out it's an order of magnitude worse. How is an airline being forced to shutdown any different than a restaurant? Or a worker who has lost his job due to the shutdown? Everyone deserves a bailout at this point and -- importantly -- everyone expects it because of what happened in 2008-09. The problem is that the costs are going to be staggering. We will all be paying for this for the rest of our lives. The people who aren't bailed out will be paying for the ones who are and the anger that's going to seed is terrifying.
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Canada's largest province closes all bars, restaurants and bans events of more than 50 people Tue 17 Mar 2020 12:47:57 GMT 40% of Canadians live in Ontario The Canadian province of Ontario has declared a state of emergency and closes all bars, restaurants, theatres and concert venues immediately. The Premier said 'no expense' will be spared to fight the virus and said it was setting up 25 more testing centres.
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Trudeau says 'millions' of Canadians to receive income support Tue 17 Mar 2020 13:13:06 GMT Comments from the Canadian PM on local radio Fiscal measures coming, likely tomorrow Range of tools available Tax credits and boosting the child benefit are options The costs are going to be staggering.
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My news feeds like to break up the dreariness with a little levity once in a while. Gotta keep your sense of humor. I doubt the newsletter gives the location of the annual ISIS BBQ.
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Seems many groups are altering their plans........... ISIS tells terrorists to steer clear of coronavirus-stricken Europe Terror group advises hand washing rather than attacks on the West. By Aitor Hernández-Morales 3/15/20, 12:51 PM CET Updated 3/15/20, 1:05 PM CET Islamic State (ISIS) has adopted a safety-first approach to the coronavirus pandemic and advised its members not to travel to Europe, Homeland Security Today reported. In the latest edition of the terrorist group’s al-Naba newsletter, the editors who normally urge followers to carry out attacks on the West instead ask them to "stay away from the land of the epidemic" for the time being. In a full-page infographic on the back cover, a list of pro-tips instructs militants on how to stop the pandemic's spread. ISIS members are advised to "put trust in God and seek refuge in Him from illnesses," but to also "cover the mouth when yawning and sneezing," and to wash their hands frequently. Those who believe they might have contracted coronavirus are told to stay away from areas under ISIS control in order to preserve the health of others and fulfil the holy "obligation of taking up the causes of protection from illnesses and avoiding them." https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-isis-terrorists-europe/
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It's a tense topic, People have strong opinions and get heated. To quote Big Bert "It is what it is".
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Investing in the stock market - Discussion
nuckin_futz replied to AV's Coin's topic in Off-Topic General
We are close to a very tradable bottom, not investable but tradable. Big dead cat bounce. -
White House recommends avoiding gatherings of more than 10 people Mon 16 Mar 2020 19:23:28 GMT White House on the virus Issues 15-dauy nationwide guidelines Says states with evidence of community transmission should close bars, restaurants, food courts, guys and other indoor and outdoor venues where people congregate This sends a strong social distancing message but these are voluntary guidelines. States have constitutional powers regarding quarantines and public health. Trump: With several weeks of coordinated action we can turn the corner Our government is prepared to do whatever it takes Worst of outbreak could be over by July or August or later Considering a national quarantine or curfew US "may be" heading into a recession, we're not thinking in terms of that The virus isn't under control anywhere I think you're going to see a tremendous surge in the economy We haven't really determined a national curfew but we have not decided to do it US will back the airlines 100%, we're going to be backstoppping them US case nearly doubled today, according to the CDC. This comment hit the market: Question: When will US coronavirus cases and deaths turn a corner? Pres. Trump: ""People are talking about July, August, something like that... Someday soon, hopefully this will end." ********************* Nice to see he's changed his tune.
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What do you want us to do. We are David living next door to Goliath. Piss them off and the fall out will be worse than the virus.
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Senate Democrats to offer a $750B stimulus package Mon 16 Mar 2020 18:59:32 GMT That's bigger than TARP Bloomberg reports that Chuck Schumer will offer a $750 billion proposal to tackle the coronavirus, including: Direct cash transfers Unemployment benefits Medicaid funding boost COVID-19 testing Federal loan forbearance Small biz help Emergency child care Meds/food delivery for seniors I feel like this is only the beginning. A $50B aviation bailout is already in the works. The deficit is going to hit $2 trillion, easily. I may be underestimating that by half as revenues collapse.