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nuckin_futz

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Everything posted by nuckin_futz

  1. Social impacts of coronavirus will also have long-term effects Mon 16 Mar 2020 16:52:52 GMT The impacts are going to be long-lasting The Daily Mail reports today that divorce rates in China have spiked because "couples are spending too much time together at home" during the virus.
  2. Come on man, you consider these numbers bad?.......... The last three numbers are 'actual', 'expectation' and 'previous'.
  3. Canada PM Trudeau says borders to be closed Mon 16 Mar 2020 17:40:41 GMT Canadian announcements on travel and borders Trudeau closes the borders. Says non-citizens and those who aren't permanent residents will be denied entry. Americans will be exempted as will air crews and family members of citizens. Canada will also ban passengers showing symptoms from getting on planes bound for Canada. This includes Canadians. Starting Wednesday only four airports in the country will accept international flights, except for the US, Mexico and the Caribbean. There are no restrictions on commerce and trade. Trudeau also announced that more measures are coming to support people and businesses tomorrow. He promised $10 billion more to help businesses and announcements to make money available to vulnerable families. Trudeau urges all Canadians to come back. "If you're abroad, now is the time to come home," he said. He tells all returning Canadians to self-isolate for 14 days.
  4. The VIX in an index you can't trade it. But there are lots of products based off the VIX that you can VXX, TVIX, UVXY, SVXY. Check out a daily chart of TVIX about $30-500.
  5. Actually the biggest name that's green is CAT +4.35%. It was upgraded to buy at Stifel.
  6. The speed of the collapse of airlines is breathtaking - Italy plans to take over Alitalia Mon 16 Mar 2020 13:03:43 GMT Italy takes over national airline The government already had a stake in the airline. Air France KLM is talking about a bailout. On the weekend, Virgin Atlantic said the UK aviation industry will need 7.5B pounds in a bailout. American Airlines announced it was virtually shutting down long-haul international travel. Airlines don't own planes and the lease payments are still due. It's looking like most global airlines might need bailouts. Overall, that's not entirely surprising but the speed of it is ominous. It argues there are far more systemic risks and bond market risks and deficit risks than anyone is expecting.
  7. Saudi Arabia will produce oil at maximum capacity, Aramco CEO says Mon 16 Mar 2020 12:50:02 GMT Oil is still far too high Oil demand is in the process of collapsing. I expect many people to fill up their tanks in the next few days on (irrational) scarcity fears but no one is going to be driving. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is flooding the market in what's clearly an effort to cripple private producers and send them into bankruptcy. I think that's coming. It was coming at $50 for much of shale and this is simply going to accelerate it. Storage is filling up and once it's full, there will be nowhere for the extra 10 mbpd of crude to go. We're going to see widespread shut-ins and only the companies with the strongest balance sheets will be able to survive it. Expect a rush lower if/when the 2016 low of $26.19 breaks. Saudi Aramco reports upstream lifting costs of $2.80 per barrel and upstream capex of $4.70 per barrel. Who wants to compete with that?
  8. US Dept of Health and Human Services Dept. was hit by cyber attack last night Mon 16 Mar 2020 12:40:23 GMT That's worrisome Who would do that right now? The US Health and Human Services Department suffered a cyber-attack on its computer system Sunday night during the nation's response to the coronavirus pandemic. The attack appears to have been intended to slow the agency's systems down, according to Bloomberg's Jennifer Jacobs. ******************* Russia or North Korea, any other guesses?
  9. Philippines president Duterte announces that Luzon to go into lockdown Mon 16 Mar 2020 07:47:46 GMT Luzon is the largest island in the Philippines, housing a population of more than 57 million people Last week, Manila was brought into lockdown but now it looks like this will extend to the entire island and impact over 57 million people in the country.
  10. Prob haven't finalized all the details yet.
  11. There are some little pieces of good news. Amidst the gloom - Italian hospital saves Covid-19 patients lives by 3D printing valves Mon 16 Mar 2020 02:15:15 GMT 3 Some human ingenuity, creativity and hard work in application: massive number of people who require intensive care and oxygenation in order to live through the infection long enough for their antibodies to fight it. This means that the only way to save lives at this point - beyond prevention - is to have as many working reanimation machines as possible. a Northern Italian hospital needed a replacement valve for a reanimation device and the supplier had run out with no way to get more in a short time. a company in the area, Isinnova, brought a 3D printer directly to the hospital and, in just a few hours, redesigned and then produced the missing piece On the evening of Saturday 14th (the next day) Massimo reported that "the system works" At the time of writing, 10 patients are accompanied in breathing by a machine that uses a 3D printed valve. Bravo
  12. Canada says a major announcement coming on Monday regarding response to the coronavirus Mon 16 Mar 2020 01:22:15 GMT A TV doorstop with Federal Ministers spoke with reporters about a major announcement coming on Monday regarding Canada's response to the coronavirus
  13. Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were: 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected. Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter. The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal. Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly. Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system. There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load. China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover. Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%. S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall. There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year. In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US. Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history. There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
  14. This the same Goldman? They're a little lite on credibility. Mind you this is from 2008 when oil was $150 .............. "Super-spike" could lift oil to $200: Goldman May 6, 2008 / 5:08 AM / 12 years ago LONDON (Reuters) - Oil could shoot up to $200 within the next two years as part of a “super-spike” driven by poor growth in oil supplies, investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS.N) said in a research note. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-goldman-idUSL0691448820080506
  15. Australian news - Woolworths to open supermarkets an hour a day to elderly only Sun 15 Mar 2020 20:53:07 GMT Woolworths supermarkets: We're launching a dedicated shopping hour in our stores to help support the needs of the elderly & people with disability in the community. From tomorrow until at least Friday, we'll be opening exclusively for them to shop from 7-8am, where permitted. ********************** Nice to see stories like this.
  16. US' CDC recommend gatherings over 50 people should be postponed for 8 weeks Sun 15 Mar 2020 23:21:50 GMT To help stem the spread of the coronavirus outbreak CDC recommends cancelling all large in-person events conferences festivals parades concerts sporting events weddings with 50+ people anywhere in the US for the next eight weeks (CDC not recommending closing schools, businesses as yet). And: No gatherings of any size without social distancing, hand hygiene & protecting vulnerable people in the population
  17. In case you don't know. Currencies are set up differently than other financial stuff like stocks, indices, commodities. Currencies trade in pairs. So when you sell one you're buying another against it. So it's a lot more difficult to tank a currency than it is anything else.
  18. Not across the pond. Those are US futures markets. The markets response at least for now appears to be "is that all ya got?". This quote from a market heavyweight "Countries are closing around the world, and the leader of the free world is an egotistical cu*t. We're effed". Kinda sums up the market's response. Yikes.
  19. Markets unimpressed. S&P futures are locked limit down -5%. The fear is the Fed just blew all their ammo. I think they can pump their way out of this but it will just kick the can down the road. Eventually inflation and rates will explode and that will be the end game.
  20. Haven't see this type of Fed action in 12 years. To be honest I have no idea how to price any of this in. Seeing things I didn't even see in 2008. Like I posted in the investment thread. They have to bail out the little guys too. The moral hazard of not doing so this time won't fly. If not they risk a further divide between the rich and the poor and risk a class war. Unprecedented times. Getcha popcorn (just don't hoard it so we can all have some).
  21. Just some thoughts here. They have to bail out small businesses along with everything else or the moral hazard being created here will result in a further divide between rich and poor and result in a class war. I hope they have thought this through and have a rock solid plan. We are now in chartered waters.
  22. They will have an underlying bid from the central banks. Don't fight the Fed.
  23. Global co-ordinated effort to flood the system with as much cash as needed.
  24. Futures ain't gonne be down 1000 now lol, maybe +1000
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