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Everything posted by nuckin_futz
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Coronavirus can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres Mon 9 Mar 2020 23:24:23 GMT A report from the South China Morning Post on research findings. from a group of official researchers from Hunan province investigating a cluster case In brief: The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes can travel up to 4.5 metres - further than the "safe distance" advised by health authorities around the world it can last for days on surfaces where respiratory droplets land (depends on factors such as temperature and the type of surface - it can survive for two to three days on glass, fabric, metal, plastic or paper) ********************************* This was more than a little frightening.
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The cheapest oil is what is going to be used. Let's say oil drops to $20/barrel. And the US shale producers cannot produce it that cheap. What is industry going to do? Pay above market for domestic oil or import the cheap stuff? They'll use the cheap stuff. Then you're beholden to foreign sources of cheap energy again. Then they have you over a barrel. No pun intended. OK it was intended. Russia said today they can ride out $25-30 oil for 6-10 years. Pretty sure the Saudi's can too. If USA withholds military sales the Russians, Chinese, French, Germans, Brits, Canadians etc will gladly pick up the slack. Yeah other OPEC members have to be pissed but there's zip they can do about it. No one is afraid of Ecuador, Gabon or Angola.
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Yes, but compared to the other regions California is small potatoes. It would depend on a lot of factors like cost of production, even the debt levels of the individual companies. Yes high gasoline prices are a drag on the economy but not as much as having your energy independence whittled away. Yeah he's not wrong on that matter however playing that up while ignoring to acknowledge the damage this will do to domestic producers is IMO more than a little crass.
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"First you make the money, then you get the power, then you get the toilet paper"
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Well first of all it's not like Goldman is above pushing their own agenda. But the drop in oil is so sudden and drastic. It really is a question of how much of the industry will need to be shelved for at least a while, perhaps a good long while. Other than Quinn Hughes there's not much to get excited about CAD or at least Western Canada right now.
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Goldman cuts Canadian 2020 GDP forecast to +0.2% from +0.7% Mon 9 Mar 2020 16:10:28 GMT Canada is on the brink of recession The collapse in oil prices is pushing Canada towards recession, according to Goldman Sachs. They have cut their 2020 GDP growth forecast to +0.2% from +0.7%. By quarter they see: 0% in Q1 -0.5% in Q2 0.25% in Q3 1% in Q4. They see the Bank of Canada cutting by 100 basis points to take rates back to the 2009-10 low of 0.25%.
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I think Trump's biggest problem right now is his administration's virus response. They had a 4-5 week head start to get prepared while it spread in China and they do not seem even remotely prepared. I can see Bloomberg blanketing the country with ads showing people who can't get tests, people dying while Trump plays golf. Pretty hard to defend that. All the while he'll be babbling about Hunter Biden.
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He doesn't listen to advisors. That's why he's on his 4th Chief of Staff. Massive layoffs in red states is not a good thing for him. It's not like the layoffs will be coming in California or Massachusetts. The Balken is Nebraska and North Dakota. Marcellus is Penn, Ohio (Rust Belt), Eagle Ridge is Texas and LA. That's why he has to fool people that it's actually a positive. Nothing positive about this.
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CAD was way worse last night. USD/CAD was 1.3763 it's back to 1.3530. Wouldn't touch CAD with a barge pole. Falling oil, falling interest rates, no ty. Oil has me confused though, almost $7 off the bottom. Even with news like this .......... Russia plans to boost oil output within weeks Mon 9 Mar 2020 13:31:16 GMT This price war is insane Bloomberg reports that Russia's Rosnet is planning to boost oil production as soon as April 1. The person, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that Rosneft had prepared for any scenario and would be able to withstand the current plunge in oil prices. Asked how rapidly Rosneft could increase production, the person said analysts who estimate the company could boost output by 300,000 barrels a day within a week or two are well informed. Russia's finance ministry said earlier that the country's oil-wealth reserves would be sufficient to cover lost revenue "for six to 10 years" at oil prices of $25 to $30 a barrel. This is an oil bull's dystopia.