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nuckin_futz

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Everything posted by nuckin_futz

  1. And of course interest rates are inevitably going lower. The yield on the US 10 yr Tbill going to an all time low.
  2. That explains why I have never seen them come into play. I was in grade school back then.
  3. I think WTI is definitely going to to the 2016 low of $26. Most likely $20. Honestly, I see no reason to go long oil now. Unless Russia comes back to the table and agrees to cuts, but i think we're way beyond that now. Saudi Arabia has decided to go nuclear. There's no going back from that. Western Canadian Select just hit a low of $14.50/barrel. It's currently $15.15 -46% ] I really think Mohammad Bin Salman must have a price on his head now. I guess this is what happens when you get to chop people up with a bone saw and there are no repercussions. You tend to think you can do anything.
  4. S&P futures are locked limit down -5%. They cannot go any lower during the overnight session. Tomorrow the first circuit breaker kicks in at -7%. I believe that brings on a 30 minute halt in trading. Next circuit breaker (I believe) is at -13% that brings on a 1 hr halt, next halt is at -20% and trading is done for the day. The circuit breakers were tightened after the Great Recession. They use to be -10%, -20%, -30%. I don't think I have ever seen a circuit breaker come into play.
  5. Just hit a low of $16.31 on Western Canadian Select. WTI just briefly took out $30 to a low of $29.73. Back above $30 (for now) Sad times coming for the oil patch.
  6. Actually $17.22. Sadly you could fill the barrel with Coca Cola and it would be worth more.
  7. Couple things really stand out. USA numbers climbing rapidly to 547. Norway has 176, for a country of 4 million that's a lot. Iceland somehow has 50 cases. India has 39 cases (that number could explode), San Marino 39 cases. Canada 64.
  8. I guess the thinking there is they will take so much market share that even though they sell at lower prices their revenue will remain the same while everyone wilts and dies.
  9. US markets. Nymex oil and Globex index futures start the week at 3 pm on Sunday. www.investing.com has live quotes. you'll see the panel on the right hand side. If there's a green clock on the far right it's trading live.
  10. OMFG Markets are open and it's absolutely carnage. Oil opened at $34.73/barrel and immediately got destroyed down to $30.01. Currently $31.62 -24% Brent crude about the same -24% ish US stock futures pummeled down to the recent lows.
  11. Millions dying of hunger does not effect global supply chains, does not curtail travel, does not cancel school, does not crash global markets, does not force millions in quarantine. Anyone dying of hunger is an absolute atrocity, but there is very little ripple effect.This virus no matter how few are effected has a massive ripple effect.
  12. Russia is not an OPEC member. They are the '+' in OPEC+. I got to think right now MBS is the most hated man in the world as he has just destroyed the budgets of every oil producing nation on Earth. He is playing a very dangerous game here. He probably gets blown up or finds himself on the business end of a bone saw. This is very bad news for Canada. Look for more rate cuts and probably sooner rather than later.
  13. The mother-of-all oil market busts is here: Talk of a 28% drop at the open Sun 8 Mar 2020 17:05:40 GMT Saudi Arabian price war will crush oil companies The mother of all busts is unfolding in the oil market. WTI crude is already down 37% since the January high and it's about to get much worse. Monday's open will be ugly, with talk of a 28% drop at the open. There are daily limits so there's a good chance it just won't open but we will get an idea in ETFs, oil stocks and foreign markets. Saudi Arabia announced drastic crude price cuts on the weekend in a declaration of a price war after the OPEC+ cartel fell apart on Russia's refusal to lower production. Saudi official selling prices fell $8-$10.25 below Brent, which is the most in at least 20 years. They also hinted at hiking production by more than 2 million barrels per day. The Kingdom at the same time appears to be fighting off a coup. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrested three royal family members on the weekend, including a brother of king. Rumors have resurfaced once again that the king is dead or gravely ill. Saudi Arabia also imposed a quarantine on al-Qatif city to halt the spread of coronavirus. Even without a price war, the virus is a massive demand shock that could leave upwards of 5 million barrels per day unburned. Even if prices at the pump crater, don't expect a demand response if the virus continues to spread. Add it all up and it's the perfect storm in oil. On top of that, US shale is already in the midst of a bust with $200 billion in debt maturing over the next four years. Russia and Saudi Arabia would love to see a sharp contraction in shale production, which has now almost-certainly peaked. Looking at the oil chart, it has the potential to be extremely ugly. The first level to watch is $40 but that will surely break at the open on Monday and the crude could be a falling knife. The 2016 low was $26.05 but the measured target of the double-top at $65 is right around $20. The selling won't end until the virus improves or we see massive production shut-ins from oil companies. Expect it to start with a wave of dividend cuts. Saudi Arabia has rarely participated in a price war but one of the times it did was in 1998 and that sent crude as low as $9.85/barrel. So the oil bust is here and now the question is what will be the collateral damage? The high-yield market is going to have a very bad day and who knows where the other vulnerabilities are. *************** There is talk those arrested in Saudi Arabia have been charged with treason. That's a pretty serious charge. Anyone know what the cost of production is in the Tar Sands? At sub $30/barrel it has to be way under water.
  14. Sometimes a little humor is warranted ....
  15. LOL Come on Alf. You want a "safe space" to be a Canucks fan. Sounds like something one of those wimps at Berkeley say when they chase off anyone with an opposing point of view.
  16. I'd say no. There's still plenty of states left that Bernie should win (WA, OR etc). But Bernie won't win those states by large enough margins to collect way more delegates. There's plenty of states left (FL, LA, MS etc) where Biden should blow Bernie out. That's how you collect the lion's share of the delegates. Bernie's best chance is being close enough to cause a ruckus at the convention. But I think we're witnessing the collapse of his campaign. Time will tell.
  17. The drop in oil is just getting started............. Saudi Arabia plans to increase oil output next month, well above 10m barrels a day Sat 7 Mar 2020 23:27:47 GMT Hard on the heels of Aramco slashing the price of its crude Saudi Arabia has slashed its oil price for all crude Bloomberg report on the planned output cut citing "people familiar with the conversations, who asked not to be named to protect commercial relations" plans to increase oil output in April going well above 10 million barrels a day Saudi Arabia has privately told some market participants it could raise production much higher if needed, even going to a record of 12 million barrels a day Current Saudi production is about 9.7 millions a day "That's the oil market equivalent of a declaration of war," said a commodities hedge fund manager, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation. ******************************* After the OPEC meeting failed to reach an agreement on output cuts. The Saudi's are going the other way and are going to flood the market and crush the price. They have essentially declared war on their fellow OPEC members and all non OPEC members.
  18. lol That's like saying you must love one of your children more than the others. Yeah we don't need people who are "fanatical". The world has enough of those type of people. Your skin is way too thin, if you can't handle a respectful opposing point of view.
  19. Sure he's a Sabres fan but he's also a Canucks fan. The Canucks are his 2nd favorite team and he genuinely cheers for them. Your post sums up why he left. He appeared genuinely hurt when it was made clear to him that he's a guest here. He was no more a guest here than any of us. He was a knowledgeable valuable member, both on hockey matters and in "off topic". Treating a Canucks fan that shabbily was a low point for this board. Especially one who had been posting nearly 8 years. It does not matter if he cheers for his hometown team more. He's a Canucks fan. He's one of us. @SabreFan1 if you're reading this, the board is worse off for your absence.
  20. Some basic technical analysis can be very useful. Price, volume, a couple moving averages, maybe some trend lines. Some people go way overboard with it. Hence the phrase "paralysis of analysis". If you ever see someone whose charts look like this......... I'd be willing to bet they are not successful. This mini skirt thing sounds like more of a lagging indicator. Isn't it human nature to change your habits after the crap hits the fan?
  21. In a ponzi scheme there is the illusion of money. Central Banks have a printing press. So there is money there. Let me put it like this. If Bernie Madoff had access to a printing press he's not sitting in prison as we speak.
  22. They'll be made eventually when they lose control and the market forces them to. People don't really buy the bulk of government bonds, central banks do. Everyone wants to devalue their currency but it's a lot harder to do than it sounds. It takes a big commitment and a lot of effort to do. I'm sure if dollar/yen falls to 100 the Japanese will give it a go.
  23. Dollar cost averaging will take a lot of the guess work out of it. How can you be certain it's bottomed? Look for the news flow to get better. Also when you can look at a daily chart and point to a certain spot and say "that was the bottom". In 2008 it was clear when the Feds made it clear they were going to bail everyone out and stimulate the crap out of everything. This became clear when they let Lehman Brothers go belly up and the crap hit the fan then 2 days later they bailed out AIG. In Europe you had ECB head Mario Draghi's infamous "wherever it takes" comment. People who say they got out at the top or in at the bottom are often lying. Bottom line is money (interest rates) is becoming cheaper. This makes bond yields unattractive. So the only alternatives are real estate and stocks. Once the noise clears the path forward will be clear. The central banks are never going to let this go, they're in too deep to do the right thing.
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