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nuckin_futz

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Everything posted by nuckin_futz

  1. BOC's Macklem: Front-loaded tightening cycles tend to be followed by soft landings Comments from Macklem in his opening statement Front-loading rate increases now helps avoid need for even higher rates down the road 100 bps hike is very unusual and reflects unusual economic circumstances of inflation at nearly 8% Strain of higher rates in short term will 'get us to the other side of this difficult period and back to normal' How high rates need to go will depend on economy We are projecting a soft landing but path to that has narrowed because of elevated and persistent inflation High inflation argues for getting to the high end of neutral or just above it Inflation is broadening because the Canadian economy is in excess demand Employers can't find enough workers and they're increasing wages to find them USD/ CAD is at the lows of the day at 1.2943 but that's come with a broad turn in risk sentiment on a big 'peak inflation ' trade. Macklem Q&A: We think there are good reasons that a soft landing is achievable Comments from Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem Economy is in excess demand. Unfilled jobs are at a record level There's lots of room to reduce vacancies without significantly increasing unemployment Unlike many of our trading partners, high commodity prices are bringing income into the country
  2. Highlights of the Bank of Canada statement The overnight rate is now 2.50% Prior overnight rate was 1.50% Previous statement said "Governing Council is prepared to act more forcefully" Now says "Governing Council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further, and the pace of increases will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and inflation" Says "the Governing Council decided to front-load the path to higher interest rates" Inflation in Canada is higher and more persistent than the Bank expected Inflation likely to remain around 8% in the next few months More than half of the components that make up the CPI are now rising by more than 5% surveys indicate more consumers and businesses are expecting inflation to be higher for longer BOC now expects global economic growth to slow to about 3½% this year and 2% in 2023 before strengthening to 3% in 2024 BOC expects Canada’s economy to grow by 3½% in 2022, 1¾% in 2023, and 2½% in 2024. BOC estimates that GDP grew by about 4% in the second quarter and sees about 2% in Q3 Labour markets are tight with a record low unemployment rate Sees inflation at 3% by the end of next year and returning to the 2% target by the end of 2024 Global energy prices are projected to decline Full statement The market was pricing in a 24% chance of a surprise 100 basis point hike ahead of the release. USD/CAD was trading at 1.3025. USD/CAD fell to 1.2980 but the 'front load' comment is a hint of a slowing pace of hikes or that the terminal rate hasn't changed. For year end, the OIS market is now pricing in a year end rate of 3.74% from 3.60% beforehand. For September, the market is now split between 50 bps and 75 bps. This is some serious tightening and I fear for the Canadian housing market, where prices are already dropping. USD/ CAD traders were wise not to push the pair above 1.3050 yesterday even with energy prices falling. The Canadian 2-year note yield is at 3.41%, which is a nice spread over Treasuries at 3.17%. BOC Governor Macklem will host a press conference at 11 am ET.
  3. Yes but he comes with more baggage than an Air Canada carousel.
  4. Just going to repost this because there's descriptions of what's being shown ............. This landscape of “mountains” and “valleys” speckled with glittering stars is actually the edge of a nearby, young, star-forming region called NGC 3324 in the Carina Nebula. Captured in infrared light by NASA’s new James Webb Space Telescope, this image reveals for the first time previously invisible areas of star birth. Called the Cosmic Cliffs, Webb’s seemingly three-dimensional picture looks like craggy mountains on a moonlit evening. In reality, it is the edge of the giant, gaseous cavity within NGC 3324, and the tallest “peaks” in this image are about 7 light-years high. The cavernous area has been carved from the nebula by the intense ultraviolet radiation and stellar winds from extremely massive, hot, young stars located in the center of the bubble, above the area shown in this image. Stephan’s Quintet, a visual grouping of five galaxies, is best known for being prominently featured in the holiday classic film, “It’s a Wonderful Life.” Today, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope reveals Stephan’s Quintet in a new light. This enormous mosaic is Webb’s largest image to date, covering about one-fifth of the Moon’s diameter. It contains over 150 million pixels and is constructed from almost 1,000 separate image files. The information from Webb provides new insights into how galactic interactions may have driven galaxy evolution in the early universe. With its powerful, infrared vision and extremely high spatial resolution, Webb shows never-before-seen details in this galaxy group. Sparkling clusters of millions of young stars and starburst regions of fresh star birth grace the image. Sweeping tails of gas, dust and stars are being pulled from several of the galaxies due to gravitational interactions. Most dramatically, Webb captures huge shock waves as one of the galaxies, NGC 7318B, smashes through the cluster. Some stars save the best for last. The dimmer star at the center of this scene has been sending out rings of gas and dust for thousands of years in all directions, and NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has revealed for the first time that this star is cloaked in dust. Two cameras aboard Webb captured the latest image of this planetary nebula, cataloged as NGC 3132, and known informally as the Southern Ring Nebula. It is approximately 2,500 light-years away. Webb will allow astronomers to dig into many more specifics about planetary nebulae like this one – clouds of gas and dust expelled by dying stars. Understanding which molecules are present, and where they lie throughout the shells of gas and dust will help researchers refine their knowledge of these objects. NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has captured the distinct signature of water, along with evidence for clouds and haze, in the atmosphere surrounding a hot, puffy gas giant planet orbiting a distant Sun-like star. The observation, which reveals the presence of specific gas molecules based on tiny decreases in the brightness of precise colors of light, is the most detailed of its kind to date, demonstrating Webb’s unprecedented ability to analyze atmospheres hundreds of light-years away. While the Hubble Space Telescope has analyzed numerous exoplanet atmospheres over the past two decades, capturing the first clear detection of water in 2013, Webb’s immediate and more detailed observation marks a giant leap forward in the quest to characterize potentially habitable planets beyond Earth.
  5. You must be vaccinated to play in the US Open. Djokovic is still not vaccinated. Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic, still 'not planning to get vaccinated,' set to skip US Open LONDON -- Just hours after winning his fourth straight title at Wimbledon with a four-set victory over Nick Kyrgios, Novak Djokovic confirmed he has no plans to receive the COVID-19 vaccination and will not be playing the US Open unless the restrictions to enter the country are eased or he is given a medical exemption. "I'm not vaccinated and I'm not planning to get vaccinated so the only good news I can have is them removing the mandated green vaccine card or whatever you call it to enter United States or exemption," Djokovic said Sunday. "I don't know. I don't think exemption is realistically possible. If that is possibility, I don't know what exemption would be about. "I don't know. I don't have much answers there." https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/34223436/wimbledon-champion-novak-djokovic-not-planning-get-vaccinated-set-skip-us-open
  6. They've already released bot info. It should read "They said I couldn't buy Twitter" "Then I was either too stupid or too arrogant to do proper due diligence before signing a legally binding agree to purchase Twitter" "Now after I try to weasel out of it" "I'll be forced to follow through by a Delaware Court that has a history of giving the middle finger to rich arrogant jerks like myself"
  7. They say that image is from 13 Billion years ago. That's not even 1/1,000,000 of what's out there. If that doesn't humble a person I don't know what will.
  8. This is why women live longer than men.
  9. The first image from the James Webb Space Telescope shows thousands of galaxies, the deepest and sharpest image of the early universe ever taken.
  10. Covid Here's the Youtube account they're from. There's tons of them. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6C3PX8hLzueaPWW9nmT85w
  11. Update to the post above. He's still active on Twitter. His account is not suspended. Damn it.
  12. Sri Lanka descends into chaos. Troubling images from Sri Lanka Sri Lankan President Rajapakse and Prime Minister Wickremesinghe were forced to flee today after enormous anti-government protests. Huge crowds stormed official government buildings and took over the President's home. Videos showed protestors swimming in his pool. The Prime Minister's home was set on fire. The speaker of the legislature is trying to pull together an all-party government to stabilize the situation. He said President Rajapakse will step down on July 13. The officials were moved to safe locations in anticipation of today's protests, which were a sharp escalation of recent demonstrations. The catalyst has been a fuel shortage in the country. The heavily-indebted country of 22 million has more than $15 billion in dollar-denominated debt and $45 billion overall. It has failed to make payments for oil and gasoline deliveries and that caused severe rationing from the government. High commodity prices, rising rates and the strong US dollar are a toxic mix for heavily-indebted countries, especially those with large current account deficits. Here's a ranking of some of the most-vulnerable spots: Aside from the potential turmoil in these countries, it's an open question whether similar crisis' trigger a broader global growth slowdown. The names at the top of this list are insignificant for global demand but as you go down the list, names like Pakistan, Egypt and Brazil stand out. The one I think that's inevitably heading towards trouble is Turkey because of its chaotic monetary policy and large current account deficit. Time will tell.
  13. Not sure but if it does it will give all of us at CDC something to pontificate over during the summer.
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