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nuckin_futz

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Everything posted by nuckin_futz

  1. It's also knows for rampant corruption. If it's true it sends the price of gold crashing. As the anticipated future supply has just increased by 50%.
  2. Out the Fed funds futures curve, the terminal top was in May 2023 at 3.982% with a path of 75/75/50/50 priced in for the next four meetings, including today. We just had the first 75 in that sequence. The projection is to top out at 3.5%. As they were with Bre-X's Busang property in Indonesia until they weren't. This doesn't sound a little fishy to you? They claim to have found a single deposit larger than all gold ever mined in the history of planet Earth.
  3. Federal Reserve hikes rates by 75 basis points vs 75 bps expected The previous range was 0.75% to 1.00% The FOMC statement from the June 14-15, 2022 meeting is out along with the updated economic forecasts. The market was pricing in an 87% chance of a 75 basis point hike with the remainder on 50 bps. Out the Fed funds futures curve, the terminal top was in May 2023 at 3.982% with a path of 75/75/50/50 priced in for the next four meetings, including today. The vote was 10-1 with the Fed's George voting for 50 basis points. That's a big surprise from one of the Fed hawks. The median dot in the dot plot is at 3.4%, which is up from 1.9%. That essentially validates market pricing, which is at 3.65%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will host a press conference at the bottom of the hour at 2:30 pm ET. Highlights: Repeats that "the Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks" Cites Ukraine war and covid in China adding pressure to inflation Says it "anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate" No changes to QE runoff "The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective" The line about being "strongly committed" is new language but I wouldn't say it's particularly surprising.
  4. In 2009 the S&P bottomed at 666 today it closed at 3730. That's a 5.6 fold increase even after the recent losses. Whatever has been wiped out of equity this year pales in comparison to the gains that were made. That money is looking for a home. My point is if need be our RE markets would be made to be more foreign owner friendly in a heartbeat if it meant averting a disaster.
  5. Maybe then it will be enough to actually meet the demand. The demand is the key factor. In the last 13 years there has been trillions made in global equity and real estate markets. That money is sitting there waiting for a place to park itself. IMO it's more than enough to sop up any temporary excess supply. Governments change the rules all the time. That's the function of government. Temporarily eliminating the tax would not be political suicide if it averts a housing crisis. Government is run by scoundrels. Scoundrels will do whatever they have to in order to save their own skin. Perfect example of that is 2009. Governments (central banks) decided they were going to engineer a recovery and they did, but not without massive intervention. Government has no qualms about intervening. So can they reverse course to save the market? Their recent history says that's exactly what they will do. In 24 years of being in markets the one thing I have learned more than anything is do not have a rigid opinion. The vast majority of the time I developed a rigid opinion I wound up getting my ass kicked. Your opinion seems pretty rigid. I think Bruce Lee summed it up best when he said "Empty your mind. Be formless, shapeless — like water. You put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend."
  6. What's going on is deleveraging after a 13 year party. Deleveraging isn't doomsday it's a hangover. If there is something terrible coming why is oil trading at $121 a barrel? Natural gas at $8.5? Copper at $4.2?
  7. For all the market doom and gloomers. Just answer this question for me, if we're heading into a really nasty recession why is oil trading at $121/barrel? Why is Natural Gas trading at $8.5? Why is copper at $4.15? etc. That's a pretty major part of the equation. If the market truly felt something bad was coming it would be reflected in commodity prices. Far too many make the mistake of telling the market what it's going to do. Rather than listening to what the market is saying. If you think something terrible is coming there's a massive hole in your thesis.
  8. I'm pretty sure Central Banks have a pretty good idea where interest rates tip things into chaos. Current rate projections are for 3-4%. That's quite a ways off from 6-7%. You're looking at things through the lens of how they are now. Government will do "whatever it takes" to avert a crisis and kick the can down the road. Look at the massive financial response to Covid. They threw that together in about a week. As for most buyers being local. That is the current landscape. If needed government would change the rules at the drop of a hat in order to keep the train on the tracks.
  9. How quickly people forget. In 2020 the S&P dropped 34% in about 3 1/2 weeks. Before the Central Banks did their thing.
  10. The market now expects the Fed to hike by 75 bps Thursday Fed fund futures show ~95% odds of a 75 bps rate hike This has to be one of the quickest repricing of odds to a Fed meeting that I can remember. In essence, the market is taking the lead and is pricing in a move to near 4% as the terminal rate by May 2023. The timing outlined for the end of this tightening cycle is once again being drawn closer, though the market is expecting an extremely aggressive Fed - more than what has been communicated. In essence, the Fed's guidance is looking meaningless and if they get bullied into such decision-making in the coming meetings, it is going to be hard to imagine how they would be able to tame the wildness in the market over the past few days. In any case, at least things are going to be spicy regardless.
  11. Sammy Hagar is 74. I don't think I have ever seen a guy so happy to be on stage.
  12. Not many are versed in what happened in 1980. There's a lot of Chicken Little's out there who like to write articles for clicks. I don't see this as a 'wheels off' scenario. 2008 was truly a 'wheels off' scenario and the Central Banks stepped in big time to avert another 1929. This is probably a little more than your garden variety recession.
  13. The situation is a lot different than in 1980. You've had a ton of money made in China (and elsewhere) that is looking to park itself somewhere else and I can't say I blame them. In 2008 the dip which looks to have been about 10% (from peak to trough) lasted maybe 6 months. The year over year dip certainly was not 10%. If a dip lasts only 6 months it means 2 things happened. 1) Not many were forced to liquidate. 2) Buyers stepped in quickly to stop the slide. I wouldn't say inflation is extremely high. It's high for sure but 6.8% is a long way off the 13.5% reading in 1980. Interest rates are projected to go to 3 maybe 3.5%. In 1981 rates topped out at over 19%. We're a long way off of repeating that.
  14. I don't see a real estate crash around these parts. There's simply too much demand. That demand will buttress any serious price decline. We already saw this in 2009. Canadian real estate fell something like 10% across the board. It only fell about 1-3% around here. I am of the opinion that what would normally be a serious price correction would instead be a period of about 2-3 years where prices go flat to slightly lower. The government has many things they can do to avert/lessen a real estate crash. They could extend even more credit. Or they could open the floodgates to foreign buyers. Who would trip over themselves to scoop up property in one of the most desirable real estate markets in the world. The government isn't going to sit by as their tax base is eroded. Kind of like the junkie rushing in to save the meth lab.
  15. China COVID - Beijing, is experiencing a "strongly explosive" COVID-19 outbreak A spokesperson for the Beijing municipal government with the "strongly explosive" comment. Beijing has reintroduced a few minor restrictions (all off-campus and "offline" sports activities for teens would be cancelled starting Sunday). Earlier a spokesperson for the city's government said a recent outbreak "The recent outbreak … is strongly explosive in nature and widespread in scope". Which does not sound too good at all. Even Chinese Communist Party controlled state media is sweating on the latest developments. On the Beijing outbreak referred to above: The Global Times reporter learned that some districts in Chaoyang have been locked down for 10 days starting Saturday for being found related to the outbreak. --- Shanghai appears to be back-pedalling a little too. Its China's largest city of around 25mn people and a key economic hub. Authorities ordered PCR testing for all residents in 15 of Shanghai's 16 districts this weekend, and five districts barred residents from leaving home during the testing period. Yikes, 5 of 25 districts locked down for the weekend. Its a roller-coaster (not the fun type) there. There is no end in sight to China's COVID zero policy. President Xi Jinping with a motivational talk said: “Persistence is victory, We must unswervingly adhere to the general policy of ‘dynamic clearing’, strengthen confidence, eliminate interference, overcome paralysing thoughts, pay close attention to the key tasks of epidemic prevention and control, and resolutely consolidate the hard-won results of epidemic prevention and control.”
  16. Yeah the reviews seem to be all over the place. Might be some good info here https://www.reddit.com/r/hockeyjerseys/
  17. https://www.customthrowbackjerseys.com/vancouver-canucks-jerseys/?sort=alphaasc&page=1 Jersey porn.
  18. Dear Santa, Hint hint. Love, Futz
  19. Yellow on black .. https://www.ebay.ca/itm/254632649904 Black on Yellow ... https://www.ebay.ca/itm/221216214562 The Tanti jersey is from the 1987 season. They wore the 'Babe' patch in the 88-89 season. T
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