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Everything posted by nuckin_futz
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One Picture, One Story
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I Had To Cut Down A Tree In My Yard And Now I Feel Bad
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Hope they do this one tomorrow night.
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I remember how utterly shocked I was when I found out these guys were white. They sound like a Motown artist, and they are on Motown Records.
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Bank of Canada hikes benchmark rate by 50 basis points, as expected Bank of Canada overnight rate to 1.50% from 1.00% Highlights of the June 1, 2022 Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Inflation likely move even higher in the near term before beginning to ease The risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen Ukraine war is dampening the outlook, particularly in Europe Canadian economic activity is strong and the economy is clearly operating in excess demand companies are reporting widespread labour shortages Housing market activity is moderating from exceptionally high levels growth in the second quarter is expected to be solid interest rates will need to rise further the Governing Council is prepared to act more forcefully if needed to meet its commitment to achieve the 2% inflation target The comment about acting 'more forcefully' is a strong indication that they're likely to hike by 50 bps again in July. That was about 80% priced in just before the BOC decision. USD/CAD has risen to 1.2634 but that comes with broad USD strength and some risk aversion hitting at the same time. Full statement: The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1½%, with the Bank Rate at 1¾% and the deposit rate at 1½%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT). Inflation globally and in Canada continues to rise, largely driven by higher prices for energy and food. In Canada, CPI inflation reached 6.8% for the month of April – well above the Bank’s forecast – and will likely move even higher in the near term before beginning to ease. As pervasive input price pressures feed through into consumer prices, inflation continues to broaden, with core measures of inflation ranging between 3.2% and 5.1%. Almost 70% of CPI categories now show inflation above 3%. The risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well anchored. The increase in global inflation is occurring as the global economy slows. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s COVID-related lockdowns, and ongoing supply disruptions are all weighing on activity and boosting inflation. The war has increased uncertainty and is putting further upward pressure on prices for energy and agricultural commodities. This is dampening the outlook, particularly in Europe. In the United States, private domestic demand remains robust, despite the economy contracting in the first quarter of 2022. US labour market strength continues, with wage pressures intensifying. Global financial conditions have tightened and markets have been volatile. Canadian economic activity is strong and the economy is clearly operating in excess demand. National accounts data for the first quarter of 2022 showed GDP growth of 3.1 percent, in line with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. Job vacancies are elevated, companies are reporting widespread labour shortages, and wage growth has been picking up and broadening across sectors. Housing market activity is moderating from exceptionally high levels. With consumer spending in Canada remaining robust and exports anticipated to strengthen, growth in the second quarter is expected to be solid. With the economy in excess demand, and inflation persisting well above target and expected to move higher in the near term, the Governing Council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further. The policy interest rate remains the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument, with quantitative tightening acting as a complementary tool. The pace of further increases in the policy rate will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and inflation, and the Governing Council is prepared to act more forcefully if needed to meet its commitment to achieve the 2% inflation target.
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Of course, planet Earth did just fine without us for more than 3 billion years. Always makes me chuckle when I hear people say we need to 'save the planet'. The planet is just fine and would continue to be fine without us. It's us who need the planet. The slogan should be 'save humanity'. One day the planet will evict all of us.
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Drug decriminalisation in Portugal: setting the record straight. What you need to know Drug-related deaths have remained below the EU average since 2001 The proportion of prisoners sentenced for drugs has fallen from 40% to 15% Rates of drug use have remained consistently below the EU average In 2001, Portugal decriminalised the personal possession of all drugs as part of a widerre-orientation of policy towards a health-led approach. Possessing drugs for personal use is instead treated as an administrative offence, meaning it is no longer punishable by imprisonment and does not result in a criminal record and associated stigma.1 Drugs are, however, still confiscated and possession may result in administrative penalties such as fines or community service. Whether such a penalty is applied is decided by district-level panels made up of legal, health and social work professionals, known as ‘Commissions for the Dissuasion of Drug Addiction’. Where an individual is referred to a Commission for the first time and their drug use is assessed as non-problematic (low risk), the law requires their case to be ‘suspended’, meaning no further action is taken. Fines can be issued for subsequent referrals. Where some problematic trends are identified (moderate risk), brief interventions are proposed — including counselling — but these are non-mandatory. In ‘high risk’ cases, where more serious problematic behaviours and dependence are identified, individuals may receive non-mandatory referrals to specialised treatment services.2 In the vast majority of instances, problematic drug use is not identified, and cases are simply ‘suspended’.3 Individuals referred to the Commissions overwhelmingly view their purpose as helping to reduce use and educate on drug risks.4 They are non-judgemental in nature, and a primary focus is safeguarding the right to health of those referred.5 Importantly, the decriminalisation of personal possession is only one part of broader health-centred drug policy reforms that involve an increased focus on harm reduction and treatment provision.6 By ‘accepting the reality of drug use rather than eternally hoping that it will disappear as a result of repressive legislation’, Portuguese reform allows drugs to be treated as a health, rather than criminal justice, issue.7 The benefits of these reforms, therefore, arise from both decriminalisation itself and the establishment of a wider health-based response to drug problems. Portugal was not the first country to decriminalise some or all drugs, and it has not been the last.8 However, it is one of the most prominent and influential. The Portuguese model directly influenced the 2020 decriminalisation measure passed in Oregon, for example, as well as proposed decriminalisation in Norway.9 Portugal is regularly held up as the leading example of drug decriminalisation, so understanding the outcomes is vital. Much more in the link https://transformdrugs.org/blog/drug-decriminalisation-in-portugal-setting-the-record-straight
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B.C. to decriminalize small amounts of ‘hard’ drugs – a North American first British Columbia will become the first jurisdiction in North America to decriminalize possession of “hard” drugs such as illicit fentanyl, heroin, cocaine and methamphetamine. Effective Jan. 31, 2023, British Columbians 18 and older will be able to carry up to a cumulative total of 2.5 grams of these illicit substances without the risk of arrest or criminal charges. Police are not to confiscate the drugs, and there is no requirement that people found to be in possession seek treatment. The production, trafficking and exportation of these drugs will remain illegal. Federal Minister of Mental Health and Addictions, Carolyn Bennett, made the announcement alongside her B.C. counterpart, Sheila Malcolmson, in Vancouver on Tuesday. The change comes six years after B.C. declared a public health emergency in response to skyrocketing overdose deaths from an increasingly volatile drug supply. Close to 10,000 people have died since 2016 in B.C. alone, and advocates have put pressure on governments to re-examine drug laws that they say were intended to minimize harms but have had the opposite effect. Fear of arrest can keep people who use drugs from seeking help, incarceration is associated with increased overdose risk, and Indigenous and racialized communities are disproportionately impacted. Criminal sanctions for personal drug use also run counter to government messaging that substance use is a health issue. The illicit drugs covered by the new rules are opioids including heroin and fentanyl, cocaine, methamphetamine and MDMA – the substances most commonly associated with toxic drug deaths, and most commonly seized by police. Police will maintain discretion to arrest and recommend charges for possessing other substances. The new rules will not apply at elementary and secondary school premises, at licensed child care facilities, in airports, or on Canadian Coast Guard vessels and helicopter. As well, possession is still prohibited in personal vehicles or watercraft operated by a minor, regardless of whether the vehicle or watercraft is in motion. Members of the Canadian Armed Forces are subject to the Code of Service Discipline. Decriminalization in B.C. is made possible through an exemption from federal drug laws. Under Section 56(1) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act, the minister of health can exempt from provisions of the act “any person or class of persons … if, in the opinion of the minister, the exemption is necessary for a medical or scientific purpose or is otherwise in the public interest.” This exemption has been used to allow for the operation of supervised drug-use sites and to conduct research or clinical trials that involve controlled substances. More recently, it permitted pharmacists to prescribe, sell and transfer prescriptions for controlled substances so people with substance-use disorders could continue to get medications during the pandemic. B.C.’s exemption expires on Jan. 31, 2026, or the date when it is revoked or replaced by another exemption – whichever comes first. B.C. formally submitted its application to Health Canada seeking an exemption in November. It had sought a cumulative threshold of 4.5 grams, saying that amount would likely accommodate a multi-day supply and some sharing for many people who use drugs. Ms. Malcolmson told reporters in April that Ottawa was considering the application with a lower threshold. Critics said a lower threshold failed to account for illicit fentanyl driving up opioid tolerances, and the fact that some drug users purchase and hold small amounts of drugs for others. Health Canada’s position is that the lower threshold balances public health and public safety, despite there being limited research on threshold limits. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-decriminalize-drugs-british-columbia-canada/
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The BC Real Estate Discussion Thread
nuckin_futz replied to Harvey Spector's topic in Off-Topic General
Posted this in the Inflation thread but might as well dump it in here too............. Why the Bank of Canada might hit the brakes sooner rather than later The Bank of Canada decision is on Wednesday The Bank of Canada decision is on Wednesday and a 50 basis point hike is fully priced in. CIBC thinks the market is right with 88% implied odds of another 50 bps hike on July 13 but then the BOC will be at 2.00% and won't get to the 2.78% implied by the OIS market by year end. That's because the housing market is rapidly slowing. "Large excess demand in Canada is much more concentrated in one area — housing. That also just happens to be the area of the economy that is the most sensitive to interest rate increases, and an area that recent home resale data suggests is already starting to slow from the 'exceptionally high' levels that the Bank of Canada described in its last policy statement." They expect the BOC and Macklem to sound hawkish on Wednesday so there's no trade in fading CAD strength yet but will be watching commentary on housing closely. "Any admission that the housing market is already responding to higher interest rates should also be seen as an admission that excess demand is about to become less excessive. That is one of the key reasons why we think that, after another 50bp hike in July, the pace of hikes will slow down, and the Bank won’t need to take rates any higher than the 2.5% mid-point of its neutral band.” If/when the Bank of Canada disconnects from Fed rate hikes, there's potential downside in the loonie. I think we would be seeing that already if not for the incredible pricing in oil and gas; but that's something that looks increasingly likely to continue. I spoke with BNNBloomberg yesterday about the Canadian dollar and Bank of Canada. -
Why the Bank of Canada might hit the brakes sooner rather than later The Bank of Canada decision is on Wednesday The Bank of Canada decision is on Wednesday and a 50 basis point hike is fully priced in. CIBC thinks the market is right with 88% implied odds of another 50 bps hike on July 13 but then the BOC will be at 2.00% and won't get to the 2.78% implied by the OIS market by year end. That's because the housing market is rapidly slowing. "Large excess demand in Canada is much more concentrated in one area — housing. That also just happens to be the area of the economy that is the most sensitive to interest rate increases, and an area that recent home resale data suggests is already starting to slow from the 'exceptionally high' levels that the Bank of Canada described in its last policy statement." They expect the BOC and Macklem to sound hawkish on Wednesday so there's no trade in fading CAD strength yet but will be watching commentary on housing closely. "Any admission that the housing market is already responding to higher interest rates should also be seen as an admission that excess demand is about to become less excessive. That is one of the key reasons why we think that, after another 50bp hike in July, the pace of hikes will slow down, and the Bank won’t need to take rates any higher than the 2.5% mid-point of its neutral band.” If/when the Bank of Canada disconnects from Fed rate hikes, there's potential downside in the loonie. I think we would be seeing that already if not for the incredible pricing in oil and gas; but that's something that looks increasingly likely to continue. I spoke with BNNBloomberg yesterday about the Canadian dollar and Bank of Canada.
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Ronnie Hawkins, Rockabilly Legend Who Mentored Rock’s Greatest, Dead at 87 Ronnie Hawkins, the Canadian rockabilly singer known as “the Hawk,” who mentored the Band and played with rock’s greats, died Sunday morning. He was 87. “He went peacefully and he looked as handsome as ever,” Wanda Hawkins, his wife, told the Canadian Press. A cause of death was not immediately available. Though he was born in Arkansas, Hawkins called Canada home for most of his career. and was considered a formative influence on the evolution of the country’s rock scene thanks to his passion for Southern blues music. In the late 1950s and early 1960s, Hawkins played with a backing band called the Hawks, which included Robbie Robertson, Rick Danko, Levon Helm, Garth Hudson, and Richard Manuel. In 1963, the Hawks split from Hawkins. Eventually, they became Bob Dylan’s backup band. And then, just The Band. In a Rolling Stone profile of The Band’s early days as the Hawks, a then-teenage Robbie Robertson recounted how Hawkins helped him shape his craft: “When the music got a little too far out for Ronnie’s ear,” Robbie remembers, “or he couldn’t tell when to come in singing, he would tell us that nobody but Thelonious Monk could understand what we were playing. But the big thing with him was that he made us rehearse and practice a lot. Often we would go and play until one a.m. and then rehearse until four. And I practiced incessantly; I could go for it until my fingers were just raw. I was interested in doing what those other people couldn’t do; I really wanted to be good.” Decades later, Robertson would thank Hawkins again during the group’s 1994 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction speech: “We should thank Ronnie Hawkins in being so instrumental in us coming together and for teaching us the ‘code of the road,’ so to speak,” Robertson said. Hawkins famously joined the group in Martin Scorsese’s 1978 classic The Last Waltz. Always more a live dynamo than a studio musician, Hawkins scored hits with rollicking covers of Bo Diddley’s “Who Do You Love?” and Chuck Berry’s “Thirty Days” (Hawkins titled his cover “Forty Days”). Unlike many of his musical peers, Hawkins never returned to the U.S. full time (though he retained his citizenship). His love for his chosen homeland was one of the cornerstones of his reputation. Hawkins was honored with a number of prestigious Canadian music awards throughout his career, including a Juno Award for country male vocalist of the year in 1982 and lifetime achievement awards from the Junos (1996) and the Society of Composers, Authors and Music Publishers of Canada (SOCAN) in 2007. Perhaps because of his dual citizenship and his big personality, Hawkins was a natural at bringing together disparate genres and musicians. As the CBC noted, he recorded with everyone from Duane Allman to The Happy Hooker author Xaviera Hollander and played Bob Dylan in Dylan’s 1978 flop Renaldo and Clara. “If the world had more people like Ronnie Hawkins, we’d do less stupid things to each other, we’d hurt fewer people, we’d have a lot more laughs,” Bill Clinton said in the 2004 documentary Hawkins: Still Alive and Kickin’. “I’ve never met another one like him.”