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nuckin_futz

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Everything posted by nuckin_futz

  1. I am utterly amazed at how much Esquimalt has improved since 30-40 years ago. I grew up in Esquimalt and you're assessment of it would have been accurate back then. Now I actually wouldn't mind living there.
  2. If Wal-Mart and Target can't navigate inflation, then who can? Ugly day in markets The wheels are truly coming off today in markets as we carve out new lows. S&P 500 down 136 points or 3.36% Nasdaq down 4% The trigger is a 26.5% fall in shares of retail giant Target after it badly missed earnings estimates due to higher costs, inventories and supply chain issues. Yesterday Wal-Mart fell 11% on a similar issue and it's down another 6.6% today. If Wal-Mart and Target can't manage supply chains and inflation, then who can? Those two companies are the world champions of supply chain management, pricing and steady profitability. They're mom & pop stocks that aren't supposed to move in double-digit increments. The recent declines in both are the worst one-day moves since 1987. That kind of volatility puts fear into the market. It's one thing when high-flying tech gets cut down, it's another when nearly two years of gains in Target shares are wiped out in a day. Corporations are now going to be in a battle to preserve profitability. They will do that buy cutting costs and raising prices. That threatens a negative feedback loop right through the economy. One of the bullish pillars at the moment is capex spending but Amazon already signaled a slowdown in building. Companies that were once confident enough to expand could start to anticipate a slowdown in demand and hunker down. The other question to ask It's what will rescue the market? At one point you might have said low multiples but with earnings now in question, you can't have confidence in the E side of the P/E equation. The Fed and other other central banks, meanwhile, are actively working against the market. Consumer balance sheets are healthy but there's a real risk that more of the disposable income goes towards food and energy. And once a recessionary mindset hits, people will hunker down. We may be only weeks away from hearing about layoff announcements. At some point the market will want to look through rate hikes and a short-term economic slowdown but right now the picture is too murky.
  3. If you got bad news You wanna kick them blues Cocaine When your day is done And you wanna run Cocaine She don't lie She don't lie She don't lie Cocaine If your thing is gone And you wanna ride on Cocaine Don't forget this fact You can't get it back Cocaine She don't lie She don't lie She don't lie Cocaine
  4. CPI data virtually guarantees 50 bps BOC hike - CIBC CIBC on today's inflation data Like everywhere else, Canadian CPI data was hot today. The numbers point to a fearsome inflation problem for global central banks. In analyzing the report and the 6.8% y/y rise compared to 6.7% expected, CIBC points to a 1.1% m/m rise in food prices (8.5% y/y) However it wasn't just food as core inflation was also well-above expectations. A driver for that was owned accomodation, which is really a proxy for mortgage costs, something that will continue to rise. In better signs they note that real estate agent fees should soon drop on slower home transactions and that goods prices outside of food and energy are showing signs of stability. "Goods prices excluding food and energy rose by a more modest 0.3% in April, following some outsized gains in the prior three months, which could be a sign of some supply chain issues and delays following bridge blockades were starting to fade," they write. Economists at CIBC aren't yet ready to change their call on the path of BOC rates. "Some like it hot, but not the Bank of Canada when it comes to inflation. The fact that inflation is pushing further above the Bank's MPR forecasts virtually guarantees another 50bp hike at its next meeting, and it could well follow that up with another outsized move to get the overnight rate to the bottom end of its neutral range (2-3%) quickly. However, after that, signs of a slowing in the domestic economy and home-grown inflationary pressures should slow down the pace of rate hikes, and we still suspect that the Bank won’t have to take rates above 2.5% in order to slow growth enough to bring inflation down to its 2% target in 2023." Target and Wal-Mart earnings are a dire signal on inflation It's tough to see how prices don't go even higher Share of Target are down 24.5% in the pre-market after missing badly on earnings despite growing revenue and traffic. The story is rising costs. "Throughout the quarter, we faced unexpectedly high costs, driven by a number of factors, resulting in profitability that came in well below our expectations, and well below where we expect to operate over time," said CEO Brian Cornell in the earnings release. They cited costs related to freight, supply chain disruptions, and increased compensation and headcount in distribution centers. The company can now either try to tame those costs, and some of them are out of their control like fuel. Or they can raise prices to boost margins. It's a competitive marketplace so hiking prices could drive consumers to the competition but Wal-Mart is facing the same issue. Its shares fell 11% yesterday on earnings and are down another 1.6% in the pre-market. Some will point to inventories and the product mix on shelves but seeing as it happened to both TGT and WMT, that's tough to swallow. There's also this from Wal-Mart CEO Doug McMillon: "The rate of inflation in food pulled more dollars away from [general merchandise] than we expected as customers needed to pay for the inflation in food." Food inflation isn't improving and I strongly suspect that general merchandise prices are going higher. So while overall revenues held up this quarter, it's not tough to see a further squeeze ahead. In the bigger picture This is increasingly looking like a stagflationary environment. The two largest retailers in the US will be raising prices and consumers will increasingly shift to low-margin purchases like food and fuel. As those price rises filter through it will keep CPI inflation elevated. Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell laid out his strategy and that can be summed up as "we need to see inflation coming down in a convincing way" before the hiking abates. To me, these results from WMT and TGT highlight a longer timeline for high inflation and greater risks of a wage-price spiral. The odds that the Fed pauses at 2.5% are dwindling and the chance of 4% Fed funds is rising.
  5. Eric Clapton Has Covid, Cancels Shows; Guitarist Had Denounced Vaccine Protocols Eric Clapton, who last summer declared that he reserved the right to cancel performances at venues where audience members were required to show proof of Covid vaccination, has indeed canceled two shows, but for another reason: Clapton just tested positive for the coronavirus. The announcement of the show cancelations in Zurich and Milan was made on Clapton’s official Facebook page last night. “Eric Clapton is unfortunately suffering from Covid having tested positive shortly after the second concert at the Royal Albert Hall,” the post reads. He has been told by his medical advisors that if he were to resume traveling and performing too soon, it could substantially delay his full recovery. Eric is also anxious to avoid passing on any infection to any of his band, crew, Promoters, their staff and of course the fans.” The performance in Zurich was scheduled for today, May 17, with Milan initially set for May 18. Clapton’s team says the guitarist hopes to resume the tour starting with the concerts in Bologna on May 20 and 21. Clapton has been a prominent opponent of Covid protocols in the UK and the U.S., most notably the lockdowns and business closures enacted during the early days of the global pandemic. Clapton, who claimed last year that he experienced “disastrous” side effects – his hands and feet, he said, were “frozen, numb or burning, and pretty much useless for two weeks” – collaborated with singer Van Morrison in 2020 on the anti-lockdown song “Stand and Deliver,” which included the lyrics “Do you wanna wear these chains/ Until you’re lying in the grave?” In his own song, “This Has Gotta Stop,” Clapton sang ” I knew that something was going on wrong/When you started laying down the law/I can’t move my hands…This has gotta stop/Enough is enough/I can’t take this BS any longer.” He subsequently subscribed to a conspiracy theory that vaccination was being encouraged through subliminal hypnosis and “mass psychosis.” On his Facebook page last night, Clapton’s team wrote, “It is very frustrating that having avoided Covid throughout lockdown and throughout the period when travel restrictions have been in place Eric should have succumbed to Covid at this point in time, but we very much hope he will be sufficiently recovered by the end of the week to be able to perform the remainder of the planned performances.” A further announcement will be made concerning the rescheduling of the postposed shows later. Clapton recently announced North American tour dates for September, including stops in Columbus, Ohio; Chicago, Pittsburgh and two shows at New York City’s Madison Square Gardens.
  6. A Freshman In High School Was Getting Bullied For Wearing The Same Clothes To School Everyday. His Classmates Decided To Buy Him Some New Clothes And New Sneakers. This Brother Is Helping His Sister To Make The Shot! Lots more can be found here ......... https://www.boredpanda.com/wholesome-human-interactions/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic
  7. I am putting the over/under of how many players Milan Lucic threatens to kill in the line up at 1.5
  8. Here's the details of the Golden Seals trading the pick that become Guy Lafleur. Best trades in Canadiens history: Shrewd moves led to Lafleur's arrival When the NHL was setting the guidelines for its first expansion in 1967, Canadiens general manager Sam Pollock proposed a rule that would have prohibited expansion teams from trading their first-round draft picks. The proposal was rejected by the other members of the Original Six and Pollock made them regret that decision. Pollock believed the best chance for the expansion teams to improve was to build through the draft but, when the other teams gave him the green light, he took advantage of the Canadiens’ depth to stockpile draft choices. He put together packages of veteran NHL players and minor-leaguers who weren’t good enough for a six-team NHL, but suddenly found new opportunities with expansion. Pollock was so successful in off-loading Montreal’s spare parts that he had 17 first-round picks from 1969 to 1974. Pollock used those picks to select Steve Shutt, Réjean Houle, Marc Tardif, Murray Wilson, Mario Tremblay, Bunny Larocque, Rick Chartraw, John Van Boxmeer and Bob Gainey. And then there was Guy Lafleur. Pollock wasn’t sure whether he was going to draft Lafleur with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1971 draft, but he did know that he wanted the pick. He was torn between Lafleur, who had been on everyone’s radar since he starred at the Quebec Peewee tournament, and Marcel Dionne, a native of Drummondville who won back-to-back OHA scoring titles with the St. Catharines Black Hawks. Pollock thought his best chance of getting the No. 1 selection was a trade with the California Golden Seals. He gave up a first-round pick in 1970 (10th overall) and minor-league forward Ernie Hicke to acquire the Golden Seals’ first-round pick in 1971 and defenceman François Lacombe, who never played for the Canadiens, but did appear in 440 games with the Quebec Nordiques. As Pollock expected, the Golden Seals were bad, but the Los Angeles Kings were even worse. By midseason, the Kings were in danger of dropping behind California. The Kings had traded their No. 1 pick to Boston and Pollock’s only option was to make Los Angeles better. He accomplished that by trading 33-year-old Ralph Backstrom to the Kings for Gord Labossiere and Ray Fortin. They would never play for the Canadiens, but Pollock wasn’t interested in the return. Backstrom had won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year in 1959 and had five 20-goals season with Montreal, but his role with the team diminished. He requested a trade after the 1969-70 season, but Pollock turned him down and Backstrom pondered retirement. He staged a brief holdout in 1970 and was frequently scratched after his return. He had one goal and four assists in 16 games before Pollock traded him on Jan. 26, 1971. Backstrom had the desired effect on the Kings. He scored 14 goals and added 13 assists in 33 games as the Kings went from last place to fifth in the Western Conference. The Golden Seals finished with the worst record in the league, 10 points behind the Detroit Red Wings. By the time the draft was held at the Queen Elizabeth Hotel in Montreal, Pollock had decided that Lafleur was his choice, and the Red Wings would use the No. 2 pick to select Dionne. Dionne was an immediate star in Detroit, leading the Red Wings in scoring in each of his first seasons, while Lafleur struggled somewhat before he had a breakthrough in 1974-75 with 53 goals and 119 points. In 1980, he became the first NHL player to record 50 goals and 100 points in six consecutive seasons. Dionne and Lafleur had Hall of Fame careers. Dionne would play more games (1,348-1,126), score more goals (731-560) and had more points (1,771-1,353). But Lafleur would enjoy more highlights in his career. He won three scoring titles — Dionne had one — and twice won the Hart Trophy as the league’s most valuable player. But it was in the playoffs that Lafleur had the wide edge. He won five Stanley Cups with Montreal, while Dionne got past the first round only once.
  9. Yup they made a trade with the dumb ass California Golden Seals to get their pick. Imagine Guy Lafleur as a Golden Seal wearing those white skates.
  10. There was an all Canadian division. A Canadian team was guaranteed to make the final 4.
  11. Toronto has built a team that is made for the regular season. Their best assets are in their top 6. But it's goaltending and defence that win cups. I don't think I have seen a single team score it's way to a cup since the Oilers in the mid 80's. What they have is a very unbalanced team. I'd trade some of the top 6 for experienced defenders. They don't need JT Miller. What they needed was available 2 years ago (for no assets) in Markstrom and Tanev but dumbo put them in cap Hell.
  12. North Korea said it is suffering an explosive outbreak of 'fever' with 350,000 cases — just one day after announcing its first ever COVID case North Korea admitted Friday that it is suffering an "explosive" outbreak of a "fever." The announcement comes the day after the country shared news of its first ever COVID case. Six people have died from the disease since April. One of the dead tested positive for the Omicron variant. North Korea said Friday that it is experiencing a massive outbreak of a "fever" with at least 350,000 cases, just 24 hours after claiming to have found its first ever case of COVID. State-run media reported Thursday that the Omicron variant of COVID-19 had been discovered in Pyongyang on Sunday. In response, the government launched a "maximum emergency epidemic prevention system," state media said. However, the government announced Friday via the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) that the country was experiencing an "explosive" outbreak of a "fever" which has killed six people and infected 350,000 since April. One of the six people who has died had tested positive for the Omicron variant of COVID, state media said. It added that 187,800 people are currently either being isolated or treated in hospital. "A fever whose cause couldn't be identified spread explosively nationwide from late April," KCNA said. North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un said that the outbreak showed a "grave sign of lapses in our anti-epidemic system," KCNA added. Images broadcast by state TV on Thursday showed Kim wearing a facemask for the first time. During the pandemic, experts feared a COVID-19 outbreak in North Korea would be devastating, especially as the country is one of only two countries in the world that are yet to start vaccinating their populations. The other is Eritrea. After the the novel coronavirus began to spread across Asia in early 2020, North Korea shut its borders and committed to a zero COVID-19 policy. It only reopened its borders in January this year. The pandemic has hit North Korea hard, even before it reported cases, with the border closure precipitating widespread food shortages. In an attempt to try and solve the hunger crisis, state-run media reported in October that the government had started breeding black swans to be culled for food. As the pandemic raged around the world, North Korea was vigilant in trying to prevent imported cases of COVID-19. In July 2020, Kim locked down the entire city of Kaesong and issued a "top-class alert" after a person suspected of having COVID-19 snuck across the border from South Korea, according to state media. In August, North Korea announced new hard labor punishments for anyone who met in groups of more than three people. ***************** No vaccinations Extremely limited ability to test Terrible healthcare system Large percentage of population malnourished Basically a perfect storm for Omicron.
  13. What a phony this guy is. Using this excuse about spam accounts to pull out. It's right in Twitter's filings about the declared % of spam accounts possibly being incorrect. He'd rather have people think he's a reckless idiot than pop the myth that he's some business wizard. Way to burn $1 billion dollars and your reputation.
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