Some premises I can agree with: Gaudette on a 2x 2m 'show me', Virtanen for 3.5m (he's not getting more than Pearson). However, Benn just listed as 'gone', as in not traded or bought out is a curious thing, likewise with Baertschi. Maybe these guys terminate (why would they?), but otherwise a trade or buyout which would reflect on the cap regardless.
I share the opinion of some others, that Tanev won't be brought back. It's a durability thing, and we can't afford him.
The perceived cap issues are real. Not in the sense that we won't be able to keep our core, but that we won't improve. Even with your optimistic outlook, you're still ignoring ELC bonuses, of which Hughes and Petey will certainly hit. Our dead cap in Baertschi, Luongo, Spooner, Sutter and possibly Ferland will continue to hurt us. Motte gets another contract, you don't walk away from his effort. 1.5m maybe.
It's likely that we'll have guys make the jump from Utica on friendly contracts. Rafferty is making 700k next year on a one-way, which would fit nicely on our D. Juolevi has improved of late. If we're keeping Stecher it would be from a QO of his current contract (+15%) for a value of 2.65m. Bring back Fantenberg cheaply, 1.5m maybe?
We have to bring back Markstrom, 6m tops. Give him term if we have to.
Anyways, just did the numbers and that would put us at 81.6m (100k over the upper limit, without accounting for bonus overages). I don't think any of the contracts are outlandish. That all said, we take a hit on D by losing Tanev and introducing 2 rookies replace him. The rest of the roster we merely keep, and don't improve upon.