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danaimo

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Everything posted by danaimo

  1. I'm curious as to what value people put on the 1st round draft pick that the Canucks sent to Tampa. What do people think the intrinsic value of this pick to be? We cannot assess it's value based on the player that Tampa receive with this pick, because that is in the future. But we can look at the value of the pick itself. What is the average point total per season for a player taken in the first round? 60+ pts nope 50-60 pts getting closer, but not much 40-50 pts keep going 30-40 pts lower 20-30 pts surely more than that! The average point total per season for a player selected in the first round is 18 pts. This is based on players drafted in 2011, 2012 and 2013 (reasonable sample. Go back further and the number falls because more players will have left the league. Excluded more recent years because most players take 2 to 3 years to get to the NHL after being drafted so this would skew the figure). For the record JT Miller's number is 30pts per year. It took him 4 years to become an NHL regular. Still think we gave up too much?
  2. LMAO. Stevie Y elbowing George McPhail in the face while Bowman is holding Savic's ankle as he crawls up the steps. Too funny.
  3. In fairness, no has made any guarantees of making the playoffs. People that you are arguing with are simply making the rational argument that there is a higher probability that the Canucks do make the playoffs at least once in the next 2 years as opposed to them not making the playoffs at all in the next 2 years. There logic is sound. Yours is not. Calm down and do the math.
  4. Maybe it was all a dream. How did we manage to draft Horvat? I'm pretty sure Gillis didn't sneak up onto the draft stage when no one was looking. Have you never heard those now famous words from Gary Bettman "We have a trade to announce. I think you're gonna want to hear this!"
  5. I was thinking the same, only this kid might have the balls to back up his attitude, not like the turtle Tkachuk. Watching his media availability, he has a death stare to match EP. Probably a combination of nerves and talking through a translator but boy, he comes across as a badass. If he can back this up the fans here will love him. Welcome to Vancity VP
  6. Okay quick math lesson. There are 46 possible draft positions that Van may have to send Tam's way (16 in 2020, 31 in 2021) . Only 15 of these possible draft picks are lottery picks, so the chances of the pick being a lottery pick is 15/46 or 32%.
  7. More than that, Even if he only puts up 50 points per year he will still do better than the average 1st round pick.
  8. Are you seriously suggesting that if the pick turns into a complete bust then this is an overpayment? If Miller scores a single point then we are ahead in this trade. Go and do some homework and find out what the average first round pick turns in to.
  9. I think you overvalue 1st round picks. Miller has already outperformed the average first round pick in any given year. There is good reason to believe that he can get better. Check out hockeydb for stats by draft position. Below is a link for Miller's draft class. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2011e.html See how the quality drops off.
  10. If you place the value of the conditional 1st round pick as being worth 50 points per year then that seems reasonable. He has scored 161 points in the last 3 years in a 3rd line checking role, if there is no improvement in his play at all then he is definitely underpaid, by your own standards.
  11. Apples and oranges my friend. Subban is 30yrs old, cap hit of $9m and coming of a poor year (by his standards). Miller is in prime of his career, reasonable cap hit, 5 yrs contract and plenty of upside.
  12. The level of criticism of this trade shows how much people tend to overvalue draft picks especially 1st round draft picks. The truth is, JT Miller has already outperformed most players that are also 1st round picks. The value of a draft pick can best be measured by the achievements of the player 5-7 years after they are drafted. So look at the numbers and decide for yourself. 5 years after he was drafted, Miller had played 196 games and amassed 76 points. If you look at players drafted in 2014, at the same point in their career as JT, only 13 players have played more and 14 scored more for selections 1-30. If you look at players drafted 17-30 (the equivalent to the pick that TAM get if VAN make the playoffs next year), 2 players played more games and only 3 scored more. I ran the numbers for 6th year and 7th year players (2013 and 2012 draft classes) and the results are much the same. What this shows is that even if the Canucks give up the 2021 pick, the chances are that they will have acquired a better player. If they give up the 2020 player they almost certainly have a better player in JT Miller. If you look at Miller's own draft class, only the top 10 drafted players have played or scored more and no one has performed better from picks 11-30. What the Canucks get is certainty. He is a proven NHL player in the prime of his career with a reasonable cap number and they have the flexibility to move him in the future if they want to. Obviously time will tell who comes out the winner of this trade, but if you look at the numbers, the Canucks seem to have gotten better value.
  13. That is not what being reported. Details that have been reported are 2020 1st round pick conditional on canucks making the playoffs. If they fail to make playoffs, TAM get Van 1st round pick in 2021. Whatever happens, it;'s a first round pick. The Canucks media release is consistent with this. I don't know why you thought that there was no 1st round pick involved.
  14. It is conditional 2020 or 2021. But it does include a first round pick if McKenzie, TSN, Sportsnet and every other network are right.
  15. Bob MacKenzie tweeting that the deal includes 1st rd pick
  16. Your right. You serve those Bigmacs really well. Keep doing it
  17. Columbus sailed his boat to discover the West Indies but would you criticize him for not discovering Australia as well?
  18. I'm pretty sure Ryan Smith and Alex Burrows proved effective 1st line players and if this kid has half the career that Burr had, I'm happy. From what I've read, the Burrows comparison seems quite applicable
  19. Maybe someone here has the answer to this. If Luongo is traded back from Fla to Van does the recapture penalty become moot? I'm sure that I read somewhere that this would be the case. In which case he could either go on LTIR or simply retire without impacting the Canucks cap space.
  20. Errr Toni. Not a good way to endear yourself to Canuck fans. If you ever get to wear a Canuck jersey, you better play out of your skin. Canucks fans have long memories. Well done, enjoy this win.
  21. Watching his post draft presser, this kid seems like a real character, can't help but like him straight away. Let's hope that if he makes it to the big time, he doesn't lose that natural style when being interviewed. Too many NHLers talk in clichés and just repeat the same old bland answers. It's refreshing to listen to a youngster that seems comfortable in the spotlight. Welcome to Vancity Jett.
  22. My main concern is that he is able to plant himself in front of goalies and feed off the scraps. It is one thing to do that in Junior. Defencemen in the NHL will not make quite so easy for him.
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