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Crabcakes

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Everything posted by Crabcakes

  1. In 2009, before the draft, TSN's Scott Cullen prepared these stats: here's the link, interesting stuff, I'll summarize http://www2.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?ID=267960 Pick Prob of playing 100 NHL games Avg Player rating (same as Hockeys Future rating) 1-5 96% 6.84 6-10 74% 5.02 11-15 54% 4.58 16-20 62% 4.44 21-25 72% 4.96 26-30 44% 3.82 31-60 28% 61-90 24% 91-120 16% after the mid 4th round, success is in the 7-10% range and is fairly steady The player rating indicates the likelihood of being an impact player. The figures are skewed by the success rate. In other words, if a player is a complete bust, their rating would be a 1. Also, the rating is the authors opinion but relativity is important. There is another site called College Hockey Inc that has studied the different success rates based on where a player has played his junior hockey. Here is the link http://collegehockeyinc.com/articles/study-ncaa-leads-nhl-draft-success Their measure of success is playing 300+ NHL games. All players are 1st round picks. NCAA 70% CHL 64% Europe 49% Is there bias here? It's hard to say but the study is in some detail and it is an interesting read.
  2. Possibly moving Lack is all about the team being saddled with a $10M+ cap hit in goal in 2 years....
  3. ^^^ quick hands, knows where to be
  4. I'm excited about Grenier because he has come so far this year. He wasn't really on the radar before and now he's the first guy JB wants to talk about. So the reason is because this was unexpected. Baertschi is obviously a skilled player that Benning also glows about. If he can make the top 6 next year he will be a real find. The 2nd line was weak last year and Sven represents an upgrade. I'm excited for him too but his case is more one of achieving what was expected.
  5. Stormriders For the record, I think that Baertschi will be the Canucks future 2LW at least. I also think that Willie is going to make him earn that spot and prove that he's ready before he gets it. Maybe he'll earn it out of camp but he'll have to show that he's the best option. So, maybe I didn't word my comment in the best way. He is top 6 material but I also think that if they put him with Horvat and Hansen, there is some reasonable skill and speed on the line while he earns the 2nd line spot. I'd rather that he not be given the 2nd line spot and have it taken away because he wasn't ready. Better he play on the 3rd line too long than to regress.
  6. Good post Canucklehead 44 Your comments on Vey are optimistic but possible. We aren't seeing much of that on CDC. The progress of Vey's career has been steady and not unimpressive. I would not be surprised to see a breakout next year but I'm being optimistic. Baertschi is a year behind Vey in age, maybe not development. We may or may not see a similar breakout in this upcoming season from the Baer. He'll certainly start on the 3rd line and may replace Higgins at 2LW by the end of the season if Higgins is still here.
  7. This talk makes me think that Jake is a player in need of a challenge. His speed has no doubt gotten him through in the past, at the highest level he may have to develop more. edit: more tools
  8. I think we see a dog fight in camp for 4th line wing between Kenins, Gaunce and Grenier......Dorsett can play either wing.
  9. If you call Brad Richardson a FA signing, I think that would make the Canucks a better team on the ice and in the locker room. However, it's contingent on cap space. You're right though, they don't need to do anything up front. Although, I think Higgins is gone. The back end is where the work needs to be done. I think that top end talent is going to have to come via the draft but in the meantime Benning has said that he wants a puck mover and a physical presence would help too. Hamhuis is marketable. Bieksa could open up some cap space but might not yield much in return. When asked who could step up next year other than the obvious 3 who will need to clear waivers, Benning likes Grenier first, then Ganuce and possibly Virtanen, Shinkaruk and others. Their success would be much more likely if Richardson is not resigned.
  10. buh, misread, post irrelevant
  11. At draft time, don't we see the prospects rated on the TSN site in terms of several criteria? Hockey IQ Skating Puck Handling Shot This would be the summary of a scouting report I presume. I think I'm missing one but you get my drift, Hockey IQ is definitely considered when rating a player.
  12. ^^^ Tough call. Benning says he'll make room for young players when they are ready. There are several who will get a shot for waiver reasons obviously (Baer, Corrado, Clendening) but a bunch of others who are close including Virtanen and Gaunce. This Calder run is definitely helping. The year after next, there is going to be even more pressure to bring young guys up. I think that long term, Benning would like to bring 1 or 2 rookies up every year.
  13. Virtanen does better with players who can match his pace.
  14. ^^^skated by in school......ha ha very droll
  15. Correct me if I'm wrong but both Virtanen and McCann will be back in junior next year if they don't make the Canucks. This is a long shot imo. So, any exposure to the pro game is a big benefit to them both. The Comets playoff run. Prospects camp. Canucks training camp and preseason games. And up to 9 games with the big club in the early season. They will be getting help with offseason training, diet etc from the Canucks.
  16. do people really think that managers are such control freaks as to micromanage their subordinates decisions it doesn't work. anybody in the real world gets this people within an organization discuss things and tend to agree on things. this is called organizational alignment and trevor linden talks about it all the time
  17. We would all love to see Baer stick it to Burkie but..... Vey will be fine and probably the better choice. Burkie will get his sooner or later
  18. Horvat plays against bottom 6 players. There's a big difference between top 6 and bottom 6. They're developing him and want him in a position to succeed. If they bring him along too fast they might blow it. He has improved so much this year already it is an assumption to think that he will continue to progress at the same rate. Don't get me wrong, I think he'll end up the 2C. The question is when. I think he starts the year at 3C and they see how it goes.
  19. KraKassian I wouldn't be a bit surprised if that is the Canucks top 6 next season. Not at the beginning but at the end of the season. Bones and Higgins would do better on the 3rd line imo but can carry the load until Baer and Horvat are ready.
  20. I've seen nothing but a good attitude from Baer. Go figure.
  21. Boudrias I agree with what you're saying there. Higgins or Matthias (which ever one they keep) can hold 2LW until Baertchi is ready (I expect he needs a little developing defensively). Once Baertchi can hold down 2LW then Higgins or Matthias will slot into 3LW. Higgins is strong defensively and is not a defensive liability on the 2nd line but he disappears offensively against better defenders. The 3rd line is a place for him to succeed. Same with Matthias imo. Same deal with Bonino. I think that Horvat needs more time to make the 2nd line but Bones can hold down that spot until Horvat is ready. Bonino I think will do much better as a defensive 3rd liner.
  22. Benning has said that he thinks Pedan is close. I admit that's a little vague and think it means he would be a possible call up after Corrado, maybe Biega. He likely doesn't have a chance until 2016-17. 2016-17 is going to be a very interesting training camp because there is a laundry list of players who will be ready. Corrado is ready now but needs to be a regular, Biega, Pedan, Hutton on D. Forwards, Shinkaruk, Gaunce, Viratnen, Jensen, Cassels, McCann, Grenier......all these will be getting serious consideration. Gotta love internal competition. Look how Shink picked it up after the Baer signing. Can you see Baer or Shink pushing Danny for 1LW in 2 years.....lol.
  23. Bones is fine as 2C until Horvat is ready. After that, Bones will make a fine checking 3C. Same argument as I made with Higgins above, they're both a bit outmatched offensively in the top 6 but defensively they're fine. They will find much more success on the 3rd line. Higgins could start the year as 2LW, and when he is ready, Baretschi switch out with him from 3LW. Same deal between Bones and Horvat. It all depends on how the younger guys develop. It could be mid season or the following year.
  24. Tyhee I agree with you and Sid about Higgins. He is a very good 3LW and I would like to see him back there. This would be putting him in a position to succeed. All year there has been discussion about the lack of a true 2nd line on the Canucks. Higgins has been a fixture on the 2nd line because he is capable defensively but he doesn't really have the offensive pop to compete against top defenders. People call for Higgins to be traded because he has been miscast. Unfortunately, there is nobody else to take the spot on the present roster.. Which brings me to Matthias. Really a 3LW as well. I think that they can keep 1 of the above long term. Higgins is 31, Matthias is 27. Sven Baertschi looks like he has the offensive pop to play 2LW but he is young and may not be quite ready defensively. If he makes the team as 2LW, he will have to play with defensively responsible players. Bonino is one.
  25. Baertchi and Vey are listed at about the same size. It's strange how some guys play big and others small. It is hard to explain why. Some guys can just handle themselves better. It's all between the ears.
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