GMs don't make picks by throwing a dart at a board, it's not all a crapshoot. If you're a professional GM with a massive scouting background you should hit on a much higher percentage than what most people on this board would. It's not up to fate, it's up to you and your scouts when making the pick, if the player doesn't have potential to grow and you take him then it's a bad pick, it's not a "meh, oh well. Next year we'll get 'em". That's why it takes years, typically, in the league to get the position where you're making those decisions, because it's anything but a guessing game.