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Federal Ndp Jumps Into The Lead - Would Form Minority Government If Election Held Today

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Federal NDP jumps into the lead

Would form minority government if election held today

Toronto, April 26. In a sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™

among Canadians 18 years of age and older, the NDP led the federal

Conservative Party by 3 points (36% to 33%), and this represents an increase of 2

points for the NDP (from 34%) and a decrease of 3 points for the Conservatives

(from 36%) since our last wave of polling March 30. The Liberals have the

support of just more than one fifth (22%) and this represents a slight increase

since last month (19%). Polling suggests that the New Democrats are particularly

popular with younger voters, with nearly half of all respondents under 35

decided or leaning towards voting NDP (47% NDP, 26% Conservative, 16%

Liberal, 7% Bloc Quebecois, 3% Green Party, 1% Other).

NDP to form minority if election held today

Taking in to account margin for error, these voting intention results—if they hold

on Election Day—would see the NDP capture a minority government of 133

seats, up from 126 last month, and up considerably from 103 in the election. The

Conservatives would claim 118 seats, down from 142 last month and down

considerably from 166 in the election. The Liberals show upward movement, and

would take 54 seats, up considerably from 36 last month and 34 in the election.

The Bloc Quebecois would take just 2 seats and the Green Party would keep

leader Elizabeth May's single seat.

Mulcair’s favourables up sharply

Four-in-ten Canadians approve of the job Tom Mulcair is doing as leader of the

opposition (41%), up from a third last month (32%). His net approval (approve

minus disapprove) is now +17. Approval ratings for both Stephen Harper (34%, -

24) and Bob Rae (35%, -2) have remained stable. Quebec is by far the most

enthusiastic province in regard to Mulcair support, providing the Leader of the

Opposition with an approval rating that outpaces his rating in other provinces by

a sizable margin (67%; compared to 38% Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 36%

Atlantic, 35% British Columbia, 34% Ontario and 27% Alberta). As always,

Harper’s support in Alberta remains his regional strongpoint (57%; compared to

37% Ontario, 36% Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 34% British Columbia, 27%

Atlantic and 21% Quebec).

Continue reading PDF by Forum Research.

Has NDP ever held the lead in polls a poll like so? I'm not intimately familiar with Canadian politics (yet), but I have a feeling this must be fairly significant for a party that was 3rd up until the last election.

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Harper’s brand hits ‘new low’ amid robo-call, F-35 scandals: poll


OTTAWA— Globe and Mail Update

Posted on

Friday, April 27, 2012 6:00AM EDT

The numerous clouds looming over the Conservative government have caused many Canadians who thought highly of Prime Minister Stephen Harper two months ago to question his competence, his trustworthiness and his vision for Canada, a new poll suggests.

Mr. Harper still edged out NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair – and easily outdistanced Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae - in the leadership index portion of a telephone survey conducted by Nanos Research between April 13 and April 18.

But Mr. Mulcair, who took the reins of his Official Opposition party on March 24, is nipping at the Prime Minister’s heels when it comes voter perceptions of federal political leaders. And Mr. Harper has taken a dramatic fall since February.

When Canadians were asked two months ago to name the federal leader they believed to be the most competent, 38.1 per cent said Mr. Harper. In the latest poll, that score dropped to 24.2 per cent.

When asked which leader they trust, 31.7 per cent said Mr. Harper in February compared to just 20 per cent in April. And, in terms of who Canadians believe has the best vision for country, the Prime Minister’s numbers fell by a similar amount.

The dramatic decline in Mr. Harper’s personal cachet occurred as his Conservatives were being accused of suppressing the opposition vote during the last election and hiding billions of dollars in the planned purchase of a fleet of fighter jets. It was also a period when Industry Minister Christian Paradis was found to have broken parliamentary ethics rules.

“It’s pretty clear that Stephen Harper’s brand has taken a hit in the last month on all of these measures. This is a new low for him over the last four years,” pollster Nik Nanos said in a telephone interview. “I think this has to be of big concern for the Conservatives because a big part of their brand has been built around Stephen Harper.”


Despite having been leader of his party for less than a month when the poll was conducted, Mr. Mulcair was in a statistical tie with Mr. Harper in terms of his trustworthiness. And, although he lagged behind the Prime Minister when Canadians were asked about his competence and vision for Canada, the NDP Leader was well ahead of Mr. Rae.

Large numbers of respondents said they were undecided or would choose none of the current party leaders when asked to choose who was the most trustworthy, competent and had the best vision for Canada.

“It’s pretty clear that a number of those individuals who have been disappointed over what they have seen in the last month are not necessarily moving to other alternatives,” Mr. Nanos said. “Which means that probably over the next couple months we can see greater fluctuations in terms of the perceptions people have of the leaders.”

The leadership index poll of 1,200 Canadian adults is expected to accurately reflect the opinions of the broader population within 2.8 percentage points 19 times in 20.

In terms of overall party popularity, the Conservatives – at 34.7 per cent – were in a statistical tie with the New Democrats who were favoured by 32.4 per cent of decided votes. It is a finding that mirrors other recent polls. The Liberals were trailing at 23.3 per cent.

“Coming off the NDP leadership there’s definitely a honeymoon,” Mr. Nanos said. The only time the New Democrats have surpassed the level of popularity indicated in this recent poll was on a couple of nights during last year’s election campaign under former leader Jack Layton.

Meanwhile, Mr. Nanos said, after a surge during the fall and early winter, “the Liberals are scooting back down to their election low that they had under [former leader] Michael Ignatieff.”

The opinions of the 975 committed voters, out of the 1,200 who were surveyed, are expected to accurately reflect the voting intentions of the larger Canadian public within 3.2 percentage points 19 times in 20.



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I don't care what polls say anymore. First of all, who would after last week. And secondly, support will go up and down, but what really matters is the election year.

Yes, this serves as an indication that Canadians are frustrated with Harper (or that they like Mulcair), but I don't think this has too much political significance. I doubt the NDP will comment on this either.

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Err just because NDP can't be elected doesn't mean this data is meaningless. I find it interesting that Canadians suddenly like Harper a fair bit less than they did a month ago. I guess all those scandals are starting to catch up. And this data contradicts what some say about NDP's inevitable decline. May not be politically significant, but interesting nonetheless, and certainly helps in rounding out any picture of Canadian politics at large.

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A lot can happen between now and the next election. This poll, while interesting because it shows the NDP as front runners, juisn't likely to be of any real significance simply because the Tories aren't going to be holding elections anytime soon. In fact, if anything, this poll helps the Conservatives identify problems to fix their public image. And they have the next four years to do so

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