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The Presence of Recent Top Draft Picks on Cup Winners - and the Canucks lack thereof


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We had a prospect playing like a top 5 pick, his name was Hodgson.

Say what you want about it, but he would definitely be helping a lot in the goal scoring department right now..

Higgins-Hodgson-Kesler

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Top 5 Canucks draft picks

#2 Dale Talon

#3 Jocelyn Guevremont

#3 Don Lever

#3 Denis Ververgaert

#4 Jere Gillis

#4 Bill Derlago

#5 Rick Vaive

#4 Jim Sandlak

#2 Trevor linden

#2 Petr Nedved

#4 Bryan Allen

#2 Daniel Sedin

#3 Henrik Sedin

Sucking for a long time & gaining top 5 draft picks is certainly no guarantee of later success.

I always think that anyone that ever suggests firing Gillis & a massive rebuild must not be old enough to remember the 15 consecutive losing seasons. (1976-1991)

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In order for the Canucks to get a top 5 pick, they would have to tank. From what I've seen, the bulk of Vancouver fans would leap from the band wagon, causing a massive land slide in the lower mainland.

Re-tooling is about the best chance of improving this team. Unfortunately, Mr. Gillis may have to change his policy of not asking players to waive their NTCs.

Also, we do have some good young players coming up. Kass, Tanev, Corrado, Schroeder, Gaunce, Jensen, Lack, Lain, Blomstrand, Andersen, Mallet and Archibald all have potential to become NHL players. Some of these players will join the Canucks, while others can be used in trades.

This team doesn't have the prospects like the loser teams, but there is still potential to improve this team in the upcoming years. We can still have some good hockey while we are making those changes.

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There has been a striking correlation since the lockout of 2005 between Cup Winning teams and having a top 5 pick on their roster (from a max. of 5 drafts before their eventual Cup Winning year). The presence of a young, high end player has been proven to help in the cup runs of these teams, and is an element that the Canucks have been missing since the days of the Sedins and their presence in the West Coast Express era.

Cup Winners since the season-long Lockout:

2012: LA Kings (Drew Doughty)

2011: Boston Bruins (Tyler Seguin)

2010: Chicago Blackhawks (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews)

2009: Pittsburgh Penguins (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin)

2008: Detroit Red Wings (None)

2007: Anaheim Ducks (Bobby Ryan)

2006: Carolina Hurricanes (Eric Staal)

* Only team to win without a top 5 pick on their roster since the lockout was Detroit. However, they had a once in a lifetime type player in Nik Lidstrom.

The saying that you "have to get worse before you get great" does apply to the majority of these teams, but I see the Bruins as being the one outlier, and a team that the Canucks can look to and see what they did in order to add that young piece to their roster. They traded a player in Kessel in return for some picks which, as we know, turned into two great young players in Seguin and Hamilton. The presence of a young player of this ilk is something that can re-energize the team, and potentially add that spark come playoff time. The bold moves that Gillis talked about in his opening presser will need to take place this coming summer, as changes will be coming regardless of their playoff finish.

Looking at this year's draft, this would be the year to make such a move, especially with many changes coming due to the cap coming down this summer. I think that if Mike Gillis is still around (and I think he will be), he needs to explore the option of moving into the top 5 of this year's draft, paying the price of either Luongo or Schneider for a package involving that top 5 pick. On the other hand, if possible, trading for a package including a young player like Couturier out of Philadelphia will be just as effective. However, sometimes taking the risk of drafting the player reaps its own rewards, as trading for a player like Couturier from the Flyers would be more difficult because he has established himself in the league.

Regardless of what happens the rest of these playoffs, it is easy to see that there is no young talent that will be pushing the core we have now and proving that secondary punch behind the Sedins and Kesler. Many will say that Cody Hodgson was that player, but it is quite obvious that he needs great players around him (Vanek, Pominville) to be effective, and because of his sub-par skating, is useless unless in a scoring role. We have seen the players in the list above create some offense on their own, something that the Canucks lack behind the Sedins and Kesler. The team is filled with some great role players in Higgins, Hansen, Lapierre, and a potential Power Forward in Zack Kassian. Prospects such as Gaunce, Corrado, and Jensen will eventually make this team, but will not be the high end talent that will be needed to replace the ability of the Sedins if and when they hit their downwards slope (some will argue they are on that downward slope now).

Will some major changes coming this off-season, regardless of playoff success, the Canucks need to address this issue. I think the proof is in the pudding, with the last handful of Cup Champs having a top end young talent on their roster.

I would love to hear your guys' thoughts on this, and get away a little bit from all this negativity surrounding the Sharks series (by the way, I think the Canucks come back and win this, but that's a discussion for another time).

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What many fans seem to forget is that all teams have a list of prospects; but that the Canucks are very nearly the worst in this respect.

- The Canucks (hopefully without Gillis) need to take another approach to drafting; one that's based on probability theory and statistics. An example of this from last year; they drafted at least one overage player (i.e. Mallet) when this goes against what probability theory teaches. We know that overage picks are, statistically speaking, bad ones. What Gillis refers to as ''out of the box'' thinking is basically going against probability theory.

- probability theory teaches us that, all other things being equal, good skaters are to be favored over average skaters; smart players over average, bigger players over very small ones, and so on.

- probability theory teaches that trading draft picks is a bad idea. (One could go on and on.) Yes; sometimes this won't work, but in the long run it does.

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You act like Bobby Ryan and Tyler Seguin actually determined the outcome of their cup finals. Ryan played 2 games in 07 playoffs and Seguin as i remember wasn't that big of a force. Skillful players yes but heck we have the Sedins who were (and still can be) elite players they just need to find a second level in the Playoffs right now are best players are Ryan Kesler and Luongo. Although its good to have those two guys going hard having only really one goal scorer through 2 playoff games is unacceptable if the Sedins don't hit the net tonight this series is over.

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It's kin of ridiculous to say that a Top 5 draft pick helps you win the Cup and use this as a criteria for the thread. How would a player's draft position affect the team? It's fair to say a young star player helps you win the Cup though. We could have one with Cody Hodgson, unfortunately we had no choice but to trade him. Kassian could be a good player some day, but it would have made more sense to get a player further along in his development IMO.

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What many fans seem to forget is that all teams have a list of prospects; but that the Canucks are very nearly the worst in this respect.

- The Canucks (hopefully without Gillis) need to take another approach to drafting; one that's based on probability theory and statistics. An example of this from last year; they drafted at least one overage player (i.e. Mallet) when this goes against what probability theory teaches. We know that overage picks are, statistically speaking, bad ones. What Gillis refers to as ''out of the box'' thinking is basically going against probability theory.

- probability theory teaches us that, all other things being equal, good skaters are to be favored over average skaters; smart players over average, bigger players over very small ones, and so on.

- probability theory teaches that trading draft picks is a bad idea. (One could go on and on.) Yes; sometimes this won't work, but in the long run it does.

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You can get a top draft pick by making bold moves. For example trading sedins, Lu or kesler during their peak years would of yielded top picks. Unfornately that's not going to happen ever since Gillis proclaims this team is close to a cup still. Also, the fact Lu's age and contract won't fetch a high draft

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Hodgson's play is fine; albeit picked through the teeth by bitter Canuck fans. Yes I can pick 5 other guys from his 2008 draft year I would prefer as well. But who would not take Erik Karlsson, Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Myers and Del Zotto above Bogosian and Luke Schenn picked 3 and 5 respectively that year either? Or Zack Boychuck, Fialatov and Kyle Beach who have been flops drafted in close proximity to Coho.

Drafted ahead of him only Stamkos, Doughty and Pietrangelo, perhaps Boedker are clearly preferable...

He wasn't playing like a top 5 prospect, look at this list and look at Cody, there are major differences (one being all of those immediately made huge impacts), also I could name 5 prospects easily from his draft year I would rather have.

And that would be all fine and dandy if he wanted to be here. He would have been a nice offensive option, it just sucks he decided to go elsewhere.

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There has been a striking correlation since the lockout of 2005 between Cup Winning teams and having a top 5 pick on their roster (from a max. of 5 drafts before their eventual Cup Winning year). The presence of a young, high end player has been proven to help in the cup runs of these teams, and is an element that the Canucks have been missing since the days of the Sedins and their presence in the West Coast Express era.

Cup Winners since the season-long Lockout:

2012: LA Kings (Drew Doughty)

2011: Boston Bruins (Tyler Seguin)

2010: Chicago Blackhawks (Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews)

2009: Pittsburgh Penguins (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin)

2008: Detroit Red Wings (None)

2007: Anaheim Ducks (Bobby Ryan)

2006: Carolina Hurricanes (Eric Staal)

* Only team to win without a top 5 pick on their roster since the lockout was Detroit. However, they had a once in a lifetime type player in Nik Lidstrom.

The saying that you "have to get worse before you get great" does apply to the majority of these teams, but I see the Bruins as being the one outlier, and a team that the Canucks can look to and see what they did in order to add that young piece to their roster. They traded a player in Kessel in return for some picks which, as we know, turned into two great young players in Seguin and Hamilton. The presence of a young player of this ilk is something that can re-energize the team, and potentially add that spark come playoff time. The bold moves that Gillis talked about in his opening presser will need to take place this coming summer, as changes will be coming regardless of their playoff finish.

Looking at this year's draft, this would be the year to make such a move, especially with many changes coming due to the cap coming down this summer. I think that if Mike Gillis is still around (and I think he will be), he needs to explore the option of moving into the top 5 of this year's draft, paying the price of either Luongo or Schneider for a package involving that top 5 pick. On the other hand, if possible, trading for a package including a young player like Couturier out of Philadelphia will be just as effective. However, sometimes taking the risk of drafting the player reaps its own rewards, as trading for a player like Couturier from the Flyers would be more difficult because he has established himself in the league.

Regardless of what happens the rest of these playoffs, it is easy to see that there is no young talent that will be pushing the core we have now and proving that secondary punch behind the Sedins and Kesler. Many will say that Cody Hodgson was that player, but it is quite obvious that he needs great players around him (Vanek, Pominville) to be effective, and because of his sub-par skating, is useless unless in a scoring role. We have seen the players in the list above create some offense on their own, something that the Canucks lack behind the Sedins and Kesler. The team is filled with some great role players in Higgins, Hansen, Lapierre, and a potential Power Forward in Zack Kassian. Prospects such as Gaunce, Corrado, and Jensen will eventually make this team, but will not be the high end talent that will be needed to replace the ability of the Sedins if and when they hit their downwards slope (some will argue they are on that downward slope now).

Will some major changes coming this off-season, regardless of playoff success, the Canucks need to address this issue. I think the proof is in the pudding, with the last handful of Cup Champs having a top end young talent on their roster.

I would love to hear your guys' thoughts on this, and get away a little bit from all this negativity surrounding the Sharks series (by the way, I think the Canucks come back and win this, but that's a discussion for another time).

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