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Some interesting numbers underlying this Canucks/Sharks series...


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The most interesting thing to me is that all of you guys are ragging on me for saying the Canucks were not the better team but have you actually listened to what almost every Canuck player said? Would their take on who was the better team make any difference to you? I mean, would you believe them if they said they were not good enough to win?

Because that is pretty much what every one of them said. So if it makes you feel better to say my opinion is meaningless go ahead. But you are also saying that the players you are defending share a meaningless opinion. I don't think I heard one of them mention that they won the Corsi battle though.

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I think the sample size is way too low for us to draw anything useful with Corsi/Fenwick. Like someone argued, one problem when the sample size is this small we just aren't sure how much the "quality of shots" is affecting the data. Long term, there is an indication that the differences in shot quality are negligible: http://nhlnumbers.co...and-shot-totals.

On the other hand, I do appreciate TC's argument that a huge problem with the "watch the games" crowd is that many, if not most, fans are extremely biased and prone to selective viewing, that's just human nature. It seems especially so during playoff time: are you really in the best position to make accurate and fair judgments on the team when your adrenaline is going and you're on the edge of your seat the whole time?

But yeah, the people slagging on Corsi/Fenwick really need to start checking those stats out. Long term, it is one of the most powerful tools we have to predict success in hockey (even better than wins themselves!):

http://www.habseyeso...uide-to-fenwick

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It's just what he does. It's easier to argue with a straw man than take what a living, thinking person says in context.

And the rest of what you've said is precisely the point - we won't know what a level result would have been because the interference that was run by the egos of entitled officials like Kelly Sutherland was extremely influential and distorted the outcome about as much as a third party possibly could have.

The fact is that the Canuck penalty killers were absolutely exhausted in the process, and additionally, since Kesler, Burrows, Hansen, Higgins are also for the most part top 6 players... it also had the effect of taxing the ability to respond when 5 on 5. Given that context, I find the corsi 5 on 5 numbers particularly telling.

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I think the sample size is way too low for us to draw anything useful with Corsi/Fenwick. Like someone argued, one problem when the sample size is this small we just aren't sure how much the "quality of shots" is affecting the data. Long term, there is an indication that the differences in shot quality are negligible: http://nhlnumbers.co...and-shot-totals.

On the other hand, I do appreciate TC's argument that a huge problem with the "watch the games" crowd is that many, if not most, fans are extremely biased and prone to selective viewing, that's just human nature. It seems especially so during playoff time: are you really in the best position to make accurate and fair judgments on the team when your adrenaline is going and you're on the edge of your seat the whole time?

But yeah, the people slagging on Corsi/Fenwick really need to start checking those stats out. Long term, it is one of the most powerful tools we have to predict success in hockey (even better than wins themselves!):

http://www.habseyeso...uide-to-fenwick

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It's also easier to blame everyone but your own team when the better team beats them. The excuses are way overdone though. The guys were tired because they had to PK so much? Then don't take stupid penalties. There were bad calls but there were many calls that were just stupid plays by the Canucks.

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1) As opposed to the facts as interpreted by genius armchairs with a thousand shades of colour to their glasses.

Some things can be quantified with relative accuracy. For example, there are five Sharks on the ice and there are five Canucks on the ice. The puck is in a particular zone. A member of a particular team took a shot on goal...

2) Some folks may like to pretend that their perspective is more accurate - personally I'll take my own observations and see what the numbers say over the opinions of a thousand hotheads on this site anyday.

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The most interesting thing to me is that all of you guys are ragging on me for saying the Canucks were not the better team but have you actually listened to what almost every Canuck player said? Would their take on who was the better team make any difference to you? I mean, would you believe them if they said they were not good enough to win?

Because that is pretty much what every one of them said. So if it makes you feel better to say my opinion is meaningless go ahead. But you are also saying that the players you are defending share a meaningless opinion. I don't think I heard one of them mention that they won the Corsi battle though.

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1) Said one genius armchair to another . . .

2) Which is almost exactly what Amigo said. Take the numbers and combine them with your observations.

Personally, I think the Canucks got jobbed AND that they were the worst team on the ice, CORSI or no.

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Not true at all actually. Corsi numbers, like all statistical analysis, certainly has some value. The only issues I have had are:

1. Whether or not a 4 game series is enough of a sample size to determine the "better team", It really is not.

2. The fact that Corsi is a specific analysis that does not encompass a lot of other factors that can effect a hockey game and, therefore by extension, can be deemed to be part of who is the "better team" overall.

If you ONLY look at Corsi numbers to determine who is the better team (which was the premise of this thread in the first place) I find that to be an extremely weak argument.

So really, your bias in terms of who you "respect" is what is the deciding factor on whether an opinion is valid? Because I am saying the same things as Vansicle is.

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Not true at all actually. Corsi numbers, like all statistical analysis, certainly has some value. The only issues I have had are:

1. Whether or not a 4 game series is enough of a sample size to determine the "better team", It really is not.

2. The fact that Corsi is a specific analysis that does not encompass a lot of other factors that can effect a hockey game and, therefore by extension, can be deemed to be part of who is the "better team" overall.

If you ONLY look at Corsi numbers to determine who is the better team (which was the premise of this thread in the first place) I find that to be an extremely weak argument.

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4 games is not enough to judge who is the overall better team though. Like everything, it comes down to - better at what? There are too many other factors involved. And San Jose outscored Vancouver 8-6 in 5 on 5 play so my criticism of Corsi is why do actual RESULTS not matter? I mean, the object of the game is to score goals not outshoot opponents 5 on 5 right, right?

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4 games is not enough to judge who is the overall better team though. Like everything, it comes down to - better at what? There are too many other factors involved. And San Jose outscored Vancouver 8-6 in 5 on 5 play so my criticism of Corsi is why do actual RESULTS not matter? I mean, the object of the game is to score goals not outshoot opponents 5 on 5 right, right?

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