Derp... Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 I've been thinking a lot about the dot. Seem's like we havn't been the same team since we dropped in faceoffs recently. Thought I'd share an article, long read, but makes some interesting points. Can't say that I have done all the research, but when I watch the Canucks 1st line chasing for 30 seconds after a lost faceoff I cringe a bit knowing they are already tired and just trying to get off the ice (sometimes). http://www.acthomas....ct-jqas-2-1.pdf System Behaviour With Respect to Time The analysis is conducted on the premise that the system begins in each state I just after a transition has been made. In the first 5 seconds, the probability of scoring is virtually zero except for two starting states - those leading directly to goals, offensive possession and defensive turnover (see Figure 6.) This confirms a fact we knew to be true by construction: in the extreme short term, possession of the puck in the offensive zone is necessary to score goals. At 20 seconds, the expected number of transitions grows to such an extent that scoring a goal beginning in any state is now feasible. At 40 seconds, the scoring rates beginning in each state are nearly identical, suggesting that the system has mixed, and the memory of the original starting state is disregarded (unless, of course, a goal was scored.) Selected scoring probabilities as a function of time are given in the appendix. This suggests that we should play are best take away players with the worst faceoff players and our best possession players with our best face off people. Simple concept right? First line isn't great at takeaways in my opinion, so maybe we should split Hank and Dank up and put two skilled take away guys with Hank? Help to bump his declining numbers. http://www.nhl.com/i...rtssPlayerStats This tells us that Hansen and Higgins could play with our worst faceoff guy. To balance out the losses and increase our chances at a quick goal. Burrows is our best non center in the faceoff circle and has a high amount of takeaways (game 7 vs Chicago:) Higgi had 36 takeaways which is 15 more than second best on the team! We could make a case that we could increase our possession numbers by playing D Sedin Kesler Kassian Higgins H Sedin Burrows Booth Schroeder/Richardson Hansen whoever else makes it can go fourth line It could really help our team getting guys into roles they are good at. Then again their stats are from the lines they were in with AV last year, so they are only good because they were in that role... Higgins was 17th in the league in take aways last year. Our next best isn't until 130th could be some untapped potential If we shuffle to increase possible possession. thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 This makes alot of sense and I wouldn't mind trying this in the off season. Think offense for a second and splitin the Sedins doesn't really help our offense which has been struggling. Alternate: We could play a defense first game and grind it out and win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 I think we just need to go back to having two centers on the fourth line that can take draws. Richardson is the first guy, and I think it will be one of Santorelli, Gaunce, or Lain as the other. That was the key to our faceoff success in the past. Having Manny and Lappy taking defensive zone draws, and freeing up Kes and Hank for offensive zone draws. This year we just didn't have that depth at center, and with Kesler recovering from shoulder surgery, he could only do so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BedBeats™2.0 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 A MG hallmark is having face off specialists. Some coaches, few really, dont deploy their roster the way AV did with all permutations of the centermen he has had. Ive always felt that if you match up against the Canucks, knowing that certain pivots will always be used in certain zones, you can "chess" your roster with favourable matchups. Puck possession style of play is predicated on FO wins. After that its the rosters skill of high % play with the puck, and certain wingers who covet the assignment of puck retrieval. It is actually Hansen's calling card, Mase was also wonderful for helping the centers if there was a broken/lost draw. Burrows with the Twins work, only because Burr is quicker to grind for the puck if the draw is lost. Although ive noticed that Hank seems to have a catalogue of set plays for varieties of situations. Some are hilariously against the rules, as they are good with using set plays that are actually picks off of blown draws if Burr regains possession. IMHO, its not about splitting the Twins up for a new look, Id look towards securing a new 2nd line center...and on the first line, move Hank to the RW with Kes as the pivot. Pretty much a variation of the usual 1st PP line except Kes is the bonafide center. Loaded first line with almost guaranteed FO success. It creates a headache for the opposing coaches on how to match the top 6. Even more of a headache to line match if Torts rolls 4 lines. After all is said and done, its interesting that Manny seems still underappreciated for what he brought. Same with Welly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uber_pwnzor Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Cool read, although there's much more to the game than face offs. The Sedins have unreal chemistry so I'm not in favor of splitting them up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maniwaki Canuck Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 IMHO, its not about splitting the Twins up for a new look, Id look towards securing a new 2nd line center...and on the first line, move Hank to the RW with Kes as the pivot. Pretty much a variation of the usual 1st PP line except Kes is the bonafide center. Loaded first line with almost guaranteed FO success. It creates a headache for the opposing coaches on how to match the top 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BedBeats™2.0 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Good idea, but I think it might be a year or two premature. When Schroeder, Gaunce, and Horvat are on the team, this becomes possible, and will probably extend the life of these older players at an elite level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUPERTKBD Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 I'm a bit surprised that people are surprised to find out the importance of faceoffs. Many of us here and in the media have been talking about it for some time. Last season, the Canucks were without Manny and Kes for a good portion of the season. Add to that the fact than Hank's percentage fell off and you have a huge dip in special teams numbers. Hard to score on the PP, when you start every one by chasing the puck back to your own zone. Also, it's difficult to kill penalties when every one of them starts with the opposing team having possession in the offensive zone. This was actually my biggest complaint about Gillis last year. (and I am one who usually supports him) He knew what Manny's situation was going to be and he knew about Kesler's injury situation, yet he did nothing to remedy the faceoff problem. Meanwhile guys like David Steckel were available... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BedBeats™2.0 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 I'm a bit surprised that people are surprised to find out the importance of faceoffs. Many of us here and in the media have been talking about it for some time. Last season, the Canucks were without Manny and Kes for a good portion of the season. Add to that the fact than Hank's percentage fell off and you have a huge dip in special teams numbers. Hard to score on the PP, when you start every one by chasing the puck back to your own zone. Also, it's difficult to kill penalties when every one of them starts with the opposing team having possession in the offensive zone. This was actually my biggest complaint about Gillis last year. (and I am one who usually supports him) He knew what Manny's situation was going to be and he knew about Kesler's injury situation, yet he did nothing to remedy the faceoff problem. Meanwhile guys like David Steckel were available... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue & Green Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 I'm a bit surprised that people are surprised to find out the importance of faceoffs. Many of us here and in the media have been talking about it for some time. Last season, the Canucks were without Manny and Kes for a good portion of the season. Add to that the fact than Hank's percentage fell off and you have a huge dip in special teams numbers. Hard to score on the PP, when you start every one by chasing the puck back to your own zone. Also, it's difficult to kill penalties when every one of them starts with the opposing team having possession in the offensive zone. This was actually my biggest complaint about Gillis last year. (and I am one who usually supports him) He knew what Manny's situation was going to be and he knew about Kesler's injury situation, yet he did nothing to remedy the faceoff problem. Meanwhile guys like David Steckel were available... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henrik Kesler Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 I'm a bit surprised that people are surprised to find out the importance of faceoffs. Many of us here and in the media have been talking about it for some time. Last season, the Canucks were without Manny and Kes for a good portion of the season. Add to that the fact than Hank's percentage fell off and you have a huge dip in special teams numbers. Hard to score on the PP, when you start every one by chasing the puck back to your own zone. Also, it's difficult to kill penalties when every one of them starts with the opposing team having possession in the offensive zone. This was actually my biggest complaint about Gillis last year. (and I am one who usually supports him) He knew what Manny's situation was going to be and he knew about Kesler's injury situation, yet he did nothing to remedy the faceoff problem. Meanwhile guys like David Steckel were available... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blömqvist Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 If we're talking about face-offs and puck possession, wouldn't it make more sense to have Kesler centre the Sedins? Our best face-off man with our best puck possession guys. Then after that we can use our wingers to make up for our lack of face-off skill. Daniel - Kesler - Henrik Burrows - Horvat - Kassian Booth - Gaunce - Higgins Santorelli - Richardson - Hansen edit: I totally agree that face-offs and puck possession are keys to the game. Like others, I believe that Gillis should go after David Steckel. He's a big body that can win face-offs and block shots. He should come relatively cheap and would add great centre depth to our team. Additionally, I think Gillis should trade for Gustav Nyquist. He is a takeaway machine (19 takeaways in 21 games) despite playing 13 minutes a game. He is also very cerebral and creative offensively and is an excellent skater. He would be an excellent addition to our top 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanucksJay Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 no no, according to guys like Bodee.. Higgins is useless. Mayray FTW! Great post. That lineup is intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a Fool Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Yeah, it was hard to watch the amount of faceoffs we lost this year. Say what you will about SJS getting 2.5x more PPs than us but Hank at 46% and Roy at 35% faceoffs is just not going to cut it. Kes was our best at 52%, but still 40% SH. You can't play possession hockey with those numbers. Hansen and Higgins are some of the best 3rd liners in the NHL due to their ability to turn the puck over, but MG still needs to address the C slot. It's way past time to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bananas Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I didn't open any links, but this all makes a lot of sense. Although, any coach worthy of the NHL probably already knows all this... And yes. I think the Sedins should be split up. Play them together for powerplays, with Kesler as the 3rd forward and taking the face-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 Just thinking about lines some more this came to mind. I'd like to see Sedin Kesler Kassian Higgins Sedin Burrows Booth Schroeder Hansen Gaunce Richardson Jensen. I think it's well balanced. If these guys were to play together for most of the season, it could generate the chemistry to have steady offense, and give our opposition a new look to play against as well. If Higgi is having trouble we have a boat load of guys who can step in to LW Booth, Gaunce, Jensen, could all work there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUPERTKBD Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 I'm not really a big fan of playing Kes and Hank on the same line. On a team that struggles to win faceoffs, it seems a bit counterintuitive to be putting two of our veteran centers on the same line. I could see it leading to a situation where you'd have Richardson, or Schroeder having to take an important defensive zone draw, with a game on the line. I think a lot depends on who ends up in the 3C and 4C positions. If Santorelli can stick with the big club, he might be just the remedy. Last season in Florida he was just under 58% and was almost 62% in 10 games with the Jets. (albeit with a very small sample size) If he can maintain something close to that level of proficiency, he might just be the answer to the loss of Manny. However, he wasn't able to stick with Florida last season, (being lost on waivers to the Jets) so it remains to be seen if he'll be showing off his faceoff prowess next season in Vancouver or in Utica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 I'm not really a big fan of playing Kes and Hank on the same line. On a team that struggles to win faceoffs, it seems a bit counterintuitive to be putting two of our veteran centers on the same line. I could see it leading to a situation where you'd have Richardson, or Schroeder having to take an important defensive zone draw, with a game on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brocklovich Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Lain could be worth a gamble on the 4th line & let Richardson & Santorelli battle it out for the 3rd line centre position with Schroeder w/ the 'loser' taking the draws on the 4th line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuck nit Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 This was actually my biggest complaint about Gillis last year. (and I am one who usually supports him) He knew what Manny's situation was going to be and he knew about Kesler's injury situation, yet he did nothing to remedy the faceoff problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.