Derp... Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 I've been thinking a lot about the dot. Seem's like we havn't been the same team since we dropped in faceoffs recently. Thought I'd share an article, long read, but makes some interesting points. Can't say that I have done all the research, but when I watch the Canucks 1st line chasing for 30 seconds after a lost faceoff I cringe a bit knowing they are already tired and just trying to get off the ice (sometimes). http://www.acthomas....ct-jqas-2-1.pdf System Behaviour With Respect to Time The analysis is conducted on the premise that the system begins in each state I just after a transition has been made. In the ﬁrst 5 seconds, the probability of scoring is virtually zero except for two starting states - those leading directly to goals, oﬀensive possession and defensive turnover (see Figure 6.) This conﬁrms a fact we knew to be true by construction: in the extreme short term, possession of the puck in the oﬀensive zone is necessary to score goals. At 20 seconds, the expected number of transitions grows to such an extent that scoring a goal beginning in any state is now feasible. At 40 seconds, the scoring rates beginning in each state are nearly identical, suggesting that the system has mixed, and the memory of the original starting state is disregarded (unless, of course, a goal was scored.) Selected scoring probabilities as a function of time are given in the appendix. This suggests that we should play are best take away players with the worst faceoff players and our best possession players with our best face off people. Simple concept right? First line isn't great at takeaways in my opinion, so maybe we should split Hank and Dank up and put two skilled take away guys with Hank? Help to bump his declining numbers. http://www.nhl.com/i...rtssPlayerStats This tells us that Hansen and Higgins could play with our worst faceoff guy. To balance out the losses and increase our chances at a quick goal. Burrows is our best non center in the faceoff circle and has a high amount of takeaways (game 7 vs Chicago:) Higgi had 36 takeaways which is 15 more than second best on the team! We could make a case that we could increase our possession numbers by playing D Sedin Kesler Kassian Higgins H Sedin Burrows Booth Schroeder/Richardson Hansen whoever else makes it can go fourth line It could really help our team getting guys into roles they are good at. Then again their stats are from the lines they were in with AV last year, so they are only good because they were in that role... Higgins was 17th in the league in take aways last year. Our next best isn't until 130th could be some untapped potential If we shuffle to increase possible possession. thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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