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Edmonton Oilers (will they be successful)


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I’ve been bored at work today and thought I’d write out some of my thoughts on the Oilers as I got in to a decent argument with a co-worker who is a diehard Oilers fan. Hey it’s the offseason and things in hockey are pretty slow. Sorry for any grammar or spelling, I didn’t really put too much effort in proofing.

The Edmonton Oilers are a team that everyone likes to look and compare say this is how to rebuild. They have 3 first overall draft picks (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov) and a large selection of top end talent like Eberle (22nd), Gagner (6th), Paajarvi-Svensson (10th). People constantly like to compare the Oilers to previous teams that have made a successful rebuild like the Pittsburgh Penguins who drafted Crosby (1st), Malkin (2nd), Fleury (1st), Staal (2nd) and the Chicago Blackhawks who drafted Kane (1st), Toews (3rd), Seabrook (14th).

When you mention the Oilers name to hockey fans from around the league, you usually get two responses. One response is that there is no way they will be able to afford all these players and remain under the salary cap. Seeing Gagner just get signed to a 4.8 million dollar per year cap provides merit to these types of thought. The other type of response is that the Oilers just like the Hawks and Penguins will become a Stanley cup contending team for years to come. This response people usually would seem like it

Let’s start off with the Penguins; they have the best 1-2 premier centres in the League led by Crosby and Malkin. Both of these talents are exception and both have some serious individual hardware to back this up. Crosby at the age of 25 has a Calder, Lester B Person, Hart, Art Ross, and a Maurice “Rocket” Richard, trophy. Malkin at the age of 26 has a Calder, Hart, Ted Lindsay, Conn Smythe and two Art Ross Trophies. Pretty impressive resume’s for both of those two men. The to put things really into perspective at the age of 20 Crosby (only his 3rd season in the NHL) captain’d the team to the Stanley Cup Finals only to lose out to the Detroit Red wings, Only 1 year later and for 3 straight season the penguins once again made the playoffs. This time they went on to win the cup, Crosby at the age of 21 and Malkin at 22.

Now let’s look at the Chicago Blackhawks. This team as well has a strong 1, 2 punch down the middle with Kane and Toews. They don’t have as much individual award but what these two players know is winning. In only his 3rd season Toews captain’d the hawks to the Western Conference Finals. The just like Crosby in his fourth season came back to win the cup. Toews and Kane both were 22 when they one there first cup and now only 3 years later (at the age of 25) get to celebrate their 2nd Stanley cup.

When you look at the Penguins and Hawks both teams had their high end draft picks make huge impacts within a short amount of time. Think about it Crosby, Malkin, Toews, and Kane all one their first cup at the age of 22 or younger. Now think about the age of the Oilers young talent, Eberle (23) Hall (21) Nugent-Hopkins (20), Yakupov (19). As it is obvious the Oiler may be a good team in the future, but you cannot compare them to the likes of the Hawks or Penguins. Oilers are yet to even qualify for the playoffs and can’t be considered cup contender.

So my question is, how do you view one of our division rivals? Are they soon to be cup contenders year in and year out like the Hawks and Penguins? Or are they a team that will never reach that next level based on the players they chose?

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The Oilers have missed the playoffs the last five season. Even the Blackhawks, and Pengiuns didn't take that long to make the post season. We keep hearing how the Oilers are improving. Yes on paper. Now they have to show it on the ice. It doesn't help when you fire a coach that's only been there for one season.

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The finishing at the bottom of the standings and the collection of draftpicks is where the comparison to Chicago and Pittsburgh ends.

There's no Crosby or Malkin there. There's also no Keith, Toews or Seabrook there. Perhaps Hall is like Kane.

So we'll have to look at the team as a whole.

Let's look at MacT's moves:

Unproven coach swap. Meh.

MPS out, Perron in. Slight upgrade.

Whitney out, Ference in. Slight downgrade, on paper.

Horcoff out, Larsen in. Parallel.

Belanger out, Gordon in. Upgrade.

Joensuu in. Petrell out, yay.

Fistric out, Belov in. Not sure.

Peckham out, Grebneshkov in. Upgrade.

Khabi out, Labarbs in. Parallel.

The biggest difference is being able to dress a complete defense, with the veteran leader being Ference, a 3rd-pairing guy in Boston. Also a slight upgrade on forwards.

Edmonton probably made enough moves to make the playoffs, like TO last season, but how far they go depends on a lot of unknown factors.

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The Oilers definitely have some of the pieces for success, but there is no guarantee.

Anyone who thinks the Oilers intentionally finished last three years in a row is fooling themselves. They have fired three coaches and a GM during their "rebuild".

I don't think they have a Crosby and Malkin in place, so they are not Pittsburgh. They don't have the depth that the Blackhawks developed either.

The bigger issue is do they have the right collection of young talent? Not sure about that. Outside of Hall, the young guys still have a lot to prove.

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The answer is no. They have more money tied up into forwards than the Penguins do. Their best defenseman is a forward in disguise in Schultz and an aging Ference both of whom are at best top 4. Without mentioning that gagner was signed to a $4.8 million extension, Schultz, Dubnyk, Yakupov and Ryan Nugent Hopkins will all command $5 million or more. I not only think they will not be as competitive as Oiler fans hope, but will be stagnant and accomplish a top 11 showing in the west and consider that an accomplishment.

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Yes, but the Oilers are still a couple of years away. Edmonton has the offensive skill in their lineup, they just need to add toughness and maybe stronger goaltending.

Future Goaltending: Dubnyk?, Roy

Future Defensive Core: Schultz, Klefblom, Nurse, Marincin, Musil, Ference --> Really solid defensive core.

Future Forward Group: Eberle, Hall, RNH, Gagner, Perron, Yakupov, Gordon, Slepyshev, Zharkov, Houck, Khaira, Lander, etc --> Deep forward group but needs toughness

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Yes, but the Oilers are still a couple of years away. Edmonton has the offensive skill in their lineup, they just need to add toughness and maybe stronger goaltending.

Future Goaltending: Dubnyk?, Roy

Future Defensive Core: Schultz, Klefblom, Nurse, Marincin, Musil, Ference --> Really solid defensive core.

Future Forward Group: Eberle, Hall, RNH, Gagner, Perron, Yakupov, Gordon, Slepyshev, Zharkov, Houck, Khaira, Lander, etc --> Deep forward group but needs toughness

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The problem there is that, apart from too many if the same type of top 6 forward, is that there D is developing at a very different rate than their forward group.

Even if 2 or 3 of their D prospects reach their potential, it will not be for 3-4 years. Add a couple years to peak and your current forward group is into their 3rd, and pricey, contracts.

Somehow Mac T is going to have to accelerate their D development (trades, UFA's), to catch up to the forwards. Plus add a few of those character, gritty 7-12 guys.

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Probably, but they won't have the cap to pay all these players, Yakupov, Hall, Eberle, RNH, Schultz, Gagner, etc.. eventually one of them will get traded, my bet? Yakupov. They might make the playoffs, might not.

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I think the Oilers' biggest problem the last few seasons has been coaching. The fact is, the Oilers have an extremely talented group of young players. The most critical ingredient for success at this stage is an excellent coaching staff.

They remind me a lot of the Hawks prior to their take off - remember the coaches that couldn't cut it in Chicago? Trent Yawney and Denis Savard both couldn't get it done with their young lineups.

People like to rag on Edmonton for being unsuccessful for a long time, but the 'Hawks only made the playoffs once in the last 10 seasons before Quenneville came on board, and it was a first round exit to boot.

I don't know what kind of coach Dallas Eakins will be, but if he can motivate and ask for the players to play their best team game every night, I truly believe Edmonton will win a lot of hockey games.

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The thing with the Hawks was that they had Keith/ Seabrook rolling, and the role players in place as Toews and Kane hit their stride. They just added a couple key FA/ Trade pieces.

Their backbone was in place. The Oilers do not have this.

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Not intended as disrespect to their city, but...

Do FA's really want to play there? Back in the 80's, maybe a lack of glamour wasn't very important.

In today's online, 24/7 existence, I'd say the avg late-20's, budding sports-star is gonna want to be in a COTU-environment. Both, to have a better shot at winning; AND a bigger market to collect endorsements/cash in on further opportunities.

Winning teams have to supplement their top draft choices, with contributing, committed vets; excellent trades; & key signings. Will markets like Winn, Cal, Edm, or even Nash/Clb ever have this capabiity?

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Not intended as disrespect to their city, but...

Do FA's really want to play there? Back in the 80's, maybe a lack of glamour wasn't very important.

In today's online, 24/7 existence, I'd say the avg late-20's, budding sports-star is gonna want to be in a COTU-environment. Both, to have a better shot at winning; AND a bigger market to collect endorsements/cash in on further opportunities.

Winning teams have to supplement their top draft choices, with contributing, committed vets; excellent trades; & key signings. Will markets like Winn, Cal, Edm, or even Nash/Clb ever have this capabiity?

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