TO Fans Vote: Dave Nonis vs. A potato.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Jul 6 2013

Dave Nonis and Randy Carlyle made some controversial moves yesterday, so to figure out whether the duo deserves accolades or scorn, I thought I would compare Nonis' July 5th Leafs roster to a potato's.

Rules: The potato cannot extend the Leafs' UFAs, nor can it sign new ones. We will consider Colton Orr's extension a "July 5th" move. It will not undo trades, so Bolland and Bernier are still on the roster. Lastly, the potato must re-sign RFAs at 200% of their previous AAV - it's a potato, not a skilled negotiator. So how did our two GMs fare?

•Colton Orr: Dave Nonis chose to re-sign the facepuncher at 925k for two years. The potato could not, and Orr walks as a UFA. Strong opener by the potato.

• Frazer McLaren: Nonis chose to re-sign this other facepuncher - because you never want to leave home with out two wasted roster slots - for 700k over two years. The potato re-signed McLaren at 1.265M over two years. Nice job, Nonis - you beat the potato by 565k!

• Mikhail Grabovski: Nonis opted to buyout the Leafs' strongest center, who, after spending a year playing some of the toughest zone starts and competition of any forward in the league, had certainly earned more icetime by any sane definition of the word "earned." The potato did not buy out Grabbo, which also saved a compliance buyout that the potato could use elsewhere, if it were a sentient human being.

• Clarke MacArthur: Neither Nonis nor the potato opted to re-sign Clarke MacArthur. The strong-possession winger would go on to sign the best contract of July 5th, providing cheap play for a division rival.

• Tyler Bozak: Nonis chose to re-sign the possession black hole and Phil Kessel-inhibitor for 5 years at 4.2M (get it? 42?). The potato could not re-sign Bozak, as it cannot enter into a legally binding agreement, so he walked as a UFA.

• David Clarkson: Nonis signed the 30 year old Clarkson to a 7 year, 5.25M contract. The marginal upgrade on Clarke MacArthur reportedly left money on the table to come to Toronto over Edmonton, but it's hard to imagine a world where that contract doesn't haunt the Leafs in 3-4 years. The potato did not sign Clarkson.

• Jonathan Bernier: Nonis extended Bernier to a 2 year, 2.9M extension. This is a significant extension over his previous cap hit of 1.25M, during which Bernier started just 30 games, saw 689 shots against, and posted a 914 SVP. It's clear that Bernier is being paid primarily for the hype, rather than for being a proven NHL starter. The potato, per the earlier rules, re-signed Bernier at 2.5M, saving the Leafs 400k.

• TJ Brennan: Dave Nonis was able to acquire UFA depth defenseman TJ Brennan, likely to play the left side behind Gunnarsson, Gardiner, Liles, and maybe Fraser or, early in the year, Rielly. The potato was not able to sign TJ Brennan.

Okay, so, those are all the Leafs' moves on July 5th. Who had a better day? Let's look at the rosters, care of Cap Geek of course:

Dave Nonis:

Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Tyler Bozak ($4.200m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)

James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)

Joe Colborne ($0.000m) / Nazem Kadri ($0.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)

Frazer McLaren ($0.700m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)

Spencer Abbott ($0.000m) /

DEFENSEMEN

Carl Gunnarsson ($0.000m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)

Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($0.000m)

John-Michael Liles ($3.875m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.788m)

T.J. Brennan ($0.600m) / Mark Fraser ($0.000m)

GOALTENDERS

Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)

James Reimer ($1.800m)

OTHER

Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)

Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)

RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.778% of upper limit)

Matt Frattin ($0.437m—0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m—0.1%)

------

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $53,729,167; BONUSES: $300,000

CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $10,870,833

Nonis has $10.9M to spend on re-signing at least 3 RFAs (Kadri, Franson, and Gunnarsson) and filling a hole at 3rd line left wing (currently Colborne) and the 13th forward (placeholder is Spencer Abbott), and Mark Fraser.

Let's see how the potato did:

Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)

James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($0.000m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)

Carter Ashton ($1.040m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Joe Colborne ($0.000m)

Frazer McLaren ($1.265m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Jerry D'Amigo ($1.083m)

Spencer Abbott ($0.000m) /

DEFENSEMEN

Carl Gunnarsson ($0.000m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)

Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($0.000m)

John-Michael Liles ($3.875m) / Korbinian Holzer ($0.788m)

Jesse Blacker ($0.870m) / Mark Fraser ($0.000m)

GOALTENDERS

Jonathan Bernier ($2.500m)

James Reimer ($1.800m)

------

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $51,411,667; BONUSES: $872,500

CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $13,760,833

The potato has 13.76M to re-sign the same 3 RFAs, the same 3rd line winger (again held by Colborne), the same extra forward (Abbott). The potato also has one remaining compliance buyout, which could be used to remove a near $4M player from our third pairing. Additionally, while the potato's third line seems weak, it's important to remember that Clarke MacArthur signed for just $2.21M more of a cap hit than Carter Ashton, which a sentient human being could have signed and still had more cap space than Dave Nonis.

Cast your vote: Who came away from July 5th with a better roster? Toronto Maple Leafs General Manager Dave Nonis, or a nondescript potato?

Poll

Who came out of July 5th with a better roster?

21% Dave Nonis (741 votes)

79% A potato (2771 votes)

[Tre Mac]

Breaking News: Canucks inquire the Leafs about hiring that potato for the soon to be vacant GM spot.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Gillis' contracts puts Nonis' to shame.

[Xbox]

This has been posted before, but not as a thread. I thought it was quite funny.

Honestly, not a fan of Nonis so far. Clarkson is a great player to add, but not at the contract he got. Franson, Fraser, and Kadri still remained unsigned.

If those 3 end up on the roster next year without subtracting a good player, and the Leafs make the post-season, I will support Nonis. Those are a lot of variables he has to overcome.

[The Bookie]

What did Dave Nonis do to justify his five-year contract extension?

It has been, without equivocation, a very challenging summer for the Toronto Maple Leafs, one fraught with embarrassments and misspeaking and confusing contracts for just about everyone.

From Tim Leiweke sticking his foot in his mouth repeatedly over the past few weeks to assistant coach Greg Cronin listing the metrics the team uses to gauge success (and not having too many of his facts check out, it hasn't exactly been a halcyon month of July for the league's richest team.

That, obviously, goes without mentioning the player personnel decisions that befuddle at best, all by a man who got a five-year extension Thursday, though this, too, came without much logic behind it.

That Dave Nonis is now signed up with the Maple Leafs for the entirety of Tyler Bozak's new deal is actually somewhat fitting. He is now tied inexorably to it, as well as the theoretically useful years of the David Clarkson contract. The fact that it has all happened this way, and for reasons that defy explanation, makes perfect sense.

You'll have to keep in mind that Nonis got this job because Brian Burke wasn't getting results fast enough with the team he'd spent less than five years building. Think about that for a second, actually. Brian Burke was only the GM of the Maple Leafs for a little more than four year years, but it felt like roughly six times that many. Dave Nonis is now signed up for a little less than double that amount of time, and the reason why is simple:

He was the guy sitting in the big chair when the team Burke built made the playoffs and came within a third-period meltdown of knocking off the heavily-favored Bruins. This despite stats that did not project well over the course of an 82-game season and a coach who had free rein to mismanage his roster as he saw fit throughout the season. This despite an archaic view not only of the way in which the NHL is moving — more toward figuring out things about players and teams with analytics than gut and squinting at something really hard until you think you can divine secret wisdom from it — and the ways in which personnel should be handled, with a heavy emphasis on thugs to "intimidate" other teams instead of skill players to "score on them."

Dave Nonis is currently set up to run the Maple Leafs (presumably into the ground) until 2018. He has done almost no team-building of his own, save for moves that do not really help his team in any appreciable way.

This goes beyond buying out Mikhail Grabovskidespite his having gone through one mediocre lockout-shortened season with a coach who misused him at every opportunity. Nonis entered the free agency period, following that amnesty buyout, with some $24.5 million in salary cap room. Here are the moves he made to whittle that down to a mere $6.17 million (with Nazem Kadri, Mark Fraser and Cody Franson still looking for new contracts, and the Leafs likewise looking to play hardball):

• Traded two prospects who were contributing something at the NHL level, and a second-round pick, for career backup Jonathan Bernier to supplant James Reimer as the No. 1 goalie despite the fact that Reimer has better statistics and has already been a starter for the team.

• Dramatically overpaid Tyler Bozak for the next five years even though he has only ever had success with one player (Phil Kessel).

• Re-signed Colton Orr for two years because fighting is important.

• Signed David Clarkson for seven years and way, way, way too much money to theoretically make the Leafs tougher to play against and maybe score 30 goals, which is a thing he'll never do again in his career.

• Traded for Dave Bolland on the basis that he might bounce back from his poor season in Chicago — you know, the same reason they bought out Grabovski — though to be fair to Bolland, he only got to play with Patrick Kane all season.

• Gave Paul Ranger one year and a no-movement clause.

How bizarre are the Maple Leafs' priorities at this point? That's the most legitimate question a neutral observer can ask. The team's primary issue this past season was defense, and the only answer Nonis has produced after about a month of free agency is bringing Ranger, who hasn't played in the NHL since 2010, aboard for one year.

This comes with the acknowledgment that the Leafs and "stats people" are never going to agree on how a team should be run in 2013, because this so-so season that granted them a playoff appearance in the most bizarre season in almost two decades and thus validates everything they believed about team-building. Interestingly, this is something of a continuation of what Burke would have done, at least in theory, because he has often and famously said things about how statistics are a drunk's lamp post, and how important it is for hockey teams to be truculent. For all the scrutiny Burke drew in his four-plus years as Leafs GM, there have been shockingly few people calling out Nonis for awful moves for which they would have crucified his predecessor.

Here's the very strange part, though: Nonis got this five-year extension for doing what amounts to minor maintenance on the team for a major amount of money, the equivalent of paying $3,500 for a tire change and full tank of gas when your windshield is missing. Meanwhile, he has left the larger, looming problems unaddressed. Given that the CBA allows him to start negotiating contract extensions with players entering the last years of their current deals, Nonis has apparently not taken much in the way of steps toward re-upping two players whom most would consider fairly important to future success for the Leafs: Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf. James Reimer and Jake Gardiner also have deals that expire at the end of June, 2014.

Throwing silly money at Joffrey Lupul, David Clarkson and Tyler Bozak is all well and good to some extent. But even with the cap likely to rise to the neighborhood of $70 million next season, getting Kessel and Phaneuf, two cornerstone players who are indisputably the best on the team at their positions, are going to be tough to squeeze in.

The reason for that is simple: Yes, as of right now it seems they will have as much as $35 million to play with under the cap, but they also have just 10 guys under contract for next season at this moment. How the team can justify extending Nonis in this way when so much is up in the air doesn't make the slightest bit of sense, but then again neither does hiring him in the first place or being of the belief that the team's success last season is indicative of anything it will do in the future.

Let's boil the facts down to the simplest possible reason: The Leafs made the playoffs for the first time since 2004. That's it. That's the whole reason. What Nonis's bosses seem to have forgotten in making such a decision, though, is that it was a long road to get to that point, and that even if they don't think this season was a fluke, the Leafs' chances of getting back into the playoffs in their new divisional situation are extraordinarily low.

Once the postseason shine and Bruins-related almosts have worn off, and the Leafs are fifth in the Flortheast by the Olympic break, this extension isn't going to look quite so good as it does now. And right now it looks awful.

[n00bxQb]

Nonis was terrible here and it doesn't look like he's learned much over the past 6 years.

Every time people complain about Gillis, I look at the other Canadian teams and think, "How are we complaining about Gillis?"

[John.Tallhouse]

Nonis was terrible here and it doesn't look like he's learned much over the past 6 years.

Every time people complain about Gillis, I look at the other Canadian teams and think, "How are we complaining about Gillis?"

[CB007]

1, Who is this potato?

2, Nonis has never been stupid and is getting wiser still as he accumulates more white hair.

[Papayas]

why do people hate Nonis so much anyway? Seriously you guys actually think it's just a coincidence that teams started winning after Nonis took over from Burke?

Nonis was the one who truely established and settle down the canucks after the WCE collapsed. People ripped him for not giving the team good bottom 6 players, but failed to realise that when Nonis took over, the canucks didn't even have a fix top 6. Most of the people who make fun of Nonis right now were the ones who questioned about the Sedins and want to trade them. It was Nonis who came in, hired AV, and send a clear message that the Sedins are our go to guy and we build around team around them.

using hindsight it was an easy decision, but in reality it was an unknown decision on how the team wold turn out around the Sedins... Nonis was the one who bought guys like Burrows, Bieksa into our system. He was the one who decide to match Kesler's contract, which at the time was considered a gross overpayment.

Did I mention the Luongo trade?

Nonis didn't do much for our bottom 6 during his tenure, but most of the reason is because he didn't have the time and effort to focus on those when your top 6 are still a question mark to most of the people. He did a great job on settling down the team and protecting our farm. He did have his share of brainfarts, but he's one of the better gm the team had

[n00bxQb]

why do people hate Nonis so much anyway? Seriously you guys actually think it's just a coincidence that teams started winning after Nonis took over from Burke?

Nonis was the one who truely established and settle down the canucks after the WCE collapsed. People ripped him for not giving the team good bottom 6 players, but failed to realise that when Nonis took over, the canucks didn't even have a fix top 6. Most of the people who make fun of Nonis right now were the ones who questioned about the Sedins and want to trade them. It was Nonis who came in, hired AV, and send a clear message that the Sedins are our go to guy and we build around team around them.

using hindsight it was an easy decision, but in reality it was an unknown decision on how the team wold turn out around the Sedins... Nonis was the one who bought guys like Burrows, Bieksa into our system. He was the one who decide to match Kesler's contract, which at the time was considered a gross overpayment.

Did I mention the Luongo trade?

Nonis didn't do much for our bottom 6 during his tenure, but most of the reason is because he didn't have the time and effort to focus on those when your top 6 are still a question mark to most of the people. He did a great job on settling down the team and protecting our farm. He did have his share of brainfarts, but he's one of the better gm the team had

[sabatoge95]

Well, Nonis does make more mistakes than a potato.

[Nuxfanabroad]

This is a clever & funny thread. If I had my druthers(whatever the Hell THAT means!), we'd next compare Feaster & a turnip.

[naslund.is.king]

Burke>Nonis

[van_ws]

Nonis sucked.. if I am not mistaken the Canucks missed the playoffs two of the three years he was at the helm with largely the same core group of players. Luongo carried the team into the playoffs the one year that they did make it.

The team desperately needed some scoring help, and Nonis never got it. He also made some god awful trade deadline moves.

[canuckster19]

The only reason Nonis isn't receiving any criticism is because TSN so triumphantly declared that TML won on July 5th, but lets not make light of the fact that it was probably by far the weakest free agency crop this century.

[canucks#01fan]

Nonis has been a Hall of Famer GM his while career, very underrated and would bang 10/10

[Drouin]

The potato > Jay Feaster

[apollo]

Omg this was hilarious hahaha, wow Toronto media is worse than vancouver media