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Hansen looks good in today's media scrum


fanfor42

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He will probably out-play Booth and end up on the 2nd line. On pace for almost 20 goals last season, and he's been improving every single season.

I expect him to hit 25 this year, mostly due to a long stint with the Sedins after Torts loves what he does and Kassian goes on an inconsistent streak.

Start of the season:

Sedin - Sedin - Kassian

Burrows - Kesler - Booth

Hansen - Schroeder - Jensen

Higgins - Richardson - Ferriero

Start of the post-season:

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows

Hansen - Kesler - Higgins

Kassian - Schroeder - Booth

Ferriero - Richardson - Weise

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Hansen might be the best 3rd line player in the league and I think with countryman Jensen on the team we can retain him for less than $4 million a year come time to re-sign him.

His upward growth is projected into the mid 50 point range as per a few analysts and web jockies. A poolie steal kids.

Hard not to like the Honey Badger

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Jeez I don't know where to start. I appreciate that you are being polite in your response, but you are also being wrong. When healthy, Kesler is a 70 point player period. Booth has proven nothing, nor has Jensen (though I like him). Hansen will score more than 50 points this year, quote me. He is ready to break out and will be used in a variety of ways - not just defensive. I think you need to look at what is going to happen this year which is different than previous years. Hansen is one of them. He will thrive with Torts. His age, work ethic, always being healthy and point growth year to year predict this.

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Gawd no. Some people have no postion management skills.

You guys are mental. Take the homer hats off. Our team also sucked offensively which gives players like Hansen a great chance to accumulate points that he never would have gotten in a regular (also full) year (see The Leafs).

I think Hansen is great but c'mon kids. If he plays on the second line that means our team sucks ... and I highly doubt he's going to get 50 points on the third when we actually have a second line this year.

WAKE-UP!

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Hansen works his tail off but let’s be real here he is not a 2nd line player. The honey badger does not have the hands to play second line minutes if he did we would have been going back to SJ tied 1-1 instead in the series of 0-2. Yes last year he put up decent numbers in a shortened season but there is no way to say he would continue that over 82 games. The only reason he got the opportunity last year was because of injuries. This year we have a healthy line up and we have players that are more fit for that role. He's a great 3rd line, pk role player. He will not put up 50 points.

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Hansen Rocks... he epitomizes hard work, and a great attitude! Every aspiring NHL player could learn something from him, he may not be the most skilled guy or the biggest meanest guy out there, but he gives it his all every night. I have never seen this guy take a shift off and it shows how much he wants to be in the NHL and wants to win.

If every Canuck approached the game with same work ethic and determination as Hansen the Canucks would be a dynasty.

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If one of our prospects can step up and center the third line I could see a line of Hansen - _______ - Higgins as the best third line in the entire league. I very much hope the prospect center can play very good defense (Gaunce, Horvat etc) because that could be an amazing shutdown line that could still provide 100+ points in a season for us while in that role.

Edit: A little Hansen appreciating is in order given the nature of the thread. Hansen is an amazing player who does it all for us. He is essentially a faster Burrows with a slightly less potent scoring and play making touch (as of right now). He does everything for us,

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Jannik Hansen looks good on today's media scrum.  He looks and sounds like a guy who is going to have a breakout year.  He is listed at 6 foot 1 and 195 lbs,  but looks like he is over 200.  His last few years have been building to a break out year this year. 2011  82 games 29 points,  2012  82 games  39 points,  2013  47 games 27 points, (projected at 47 points for a full year).  At 27 years old he is poised to break out.  Yes I know the next couple of guys to comment will disagree - typical negative nellies on CDC.  But once we get past they're posturing, the real issue is that Hansen is projected mathematically to grow again. (Three years of point growth and entering a year at 27 which is statistically in the peak years for point production). His projection is  50 to 60 points. The guy looks strong.

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Hansen was third on our team in scoring last season, he is good enough offensively to play on a 2nd but Vancouver's situation is interesting as our "2nd line" players are defensive specialists and our "3rd line players" are more offensive oriented.

Sedin Sedin Kassian

Burrows Kesler Hansen

Higgins Schroeder Booth

Weise Richardson Sestito

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Gawd no. Some people have no postion management skills.

You guys are mental. Take the homer hats off. Our team also sucked offensively which gives players like Hansen a great chance to accumulate points that he never would have gotten in a regular (also full) year (see The Leafs).

I think Hansen is great but c'mon kids. If he plays on the second line that means our team sucks ... and I highly doubt he's going to get 50 points on the third when we actually have a second line this year.

WAKE-UP!

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I like using Hansen as a third liner, but if anyone needs to "wake-up," it's those people who refuse to realize that he's been performing at a top-six rate offensively for several years now.

Lines are based on even strength play. I've made this point many times and it's a simple one: special teams use different configurations and units so your forward lines are only based on even strength (as that's the only time the team uses those configurations and units).

So performance, in terms of "first line" or "top-six" and the like should be determined by a player's statistics at even strength.

As such, the only fair measure is 5v5 points/60 (possibly with a little consideration for zone starts and qualcomp).

Here are the Canucks active forwards' 5v5 points/60 numbers for samples ranging from the last five seasons up to the past season (2012-13). For each sample, I've also added Hansen's position among forwards in the entire NHL:

Last five seasons (2008-13):

1. Sedin, Henrik (2.81), 2. Sedin, Daniel (2.78), 3. Burrows, Alex (2.24), 4. Hansen, Jannik (1.86), Kesler, Ryan (1.79)

- Hansen is #79 among all NHL forwards (minimum 3000* minutes played)

Last four seasons (2009-13):

1. Sedin, Henrik (2.82), 2. Sedin, Daniel (2.79), 3. Burrows, Alex (2.21), 4. Hansen, Jannik (1.88), 5. Kesler, Ryan (1.79)

- Hansen is #81 among all NHL forwards (minimum 2500* minutes played)

Last three seasons (2010-13):

1. Sedin, Henrik (2.49), 2. Sedin, Daniel (2.49), 3. Burrows, Alex (2.22), 4. Hansen, Jannik (1.91), 5. Higgins, Chris (1.79)

- Hansen is #73 among all NHL forwards (minimum 2000* minutes played)

Last two seasons (2011-13):

1. Sedin, Henrik (2.39), 2. Sedin, Daniel (2.16), 3. Hansen, Jannik (2.09), 4, Burrows, Alex (2.02), 5. Higgins, Chris (1.71)

- Hansen is #45 among all NHL forwards (minimum 1250* minutes played)

Last season (2012-13):

1. Hansen, Jannik (2.26), 2. Sedin, Henrik (2.23), 3. Sedin, Daniel (2.14), 4. Burrows, Alex (2.01), 5**. Higgins, Chris (1.24)

- Hansen is #32 among all NHL forwards (minimum 400* minutes played)

*These minimums were chosen because they were the number of minutes that most effectively filtered the results from each sample. Players who didn't play the required number of seasons were mostly eliminated as were players who weren't regulars on their respective teams. In every case, the number of minutes that represented full seasons of play would have been much greater than what I have chosen (so I was actually being conservative and Hansen would rank significantly higher if using more stringent criteria for minimum minutes played).

**Note that Roy (5th in 2012-13) and Raymond (6th in 2012-13) are not included as I've chosen to list only active Canucks players. Therefore Higgins (7th in 2012-13) takes the #5 spot for last season.

So that's a lot of numbers, I suppose, but the main point of this is to give a clear indication of what kind of production the Canucks have been enjoying from Jannik Hansen over the last five seasons (and the last four, three, two, and one season(s)).

In terms of the Canucks, he's easily been the fourth most productive offensive player at even strength over the longterm and, in recent years, I think the two-year sample gives the best indication, putting Hansen just behind the twins in terms of offensive production moving forward this season (Hansen is unlikely to maintain the #1 position he held last season).

Unless one of the rookies makes a strong showing, or Kesler has a dramatic resurgence (that isn't mostly based on power play production), Hansen will likely be the 3rd best offensive performer at 5v5 on the Canucks, just behind the Sedins, as he continues to improve and with Burrows' production likely headed in the opposite direction. This is likely to be the case for the next few seasons until the Sedins begin to decline and (hopefully) the new group of forwards (Horvat, Shinkaruk, Jensen, Kassian, etc) begin to claim roles with the team. During this transition period, the Canucks will quite likely need Hansen's production more than ever.

Personally, I see last season as a sign of things to come from Jannik Hansen. However, it was a lockout shortened year and doubters will want to call it an aberration. For argument's sake, let's just throw 2012-13 out for a minute and look at the Canucks' previous three-year sample (from 2009-12):

1. Sedin, Henrik (2.93), 2. Sedin, Daniel (2.93), 3, Burrows, Alex (2.25), 4 Hansen, Jannik (1.78), 5. Kesler, Ryan (1.77)

- Hansen is #109 among all NHL forwards (minimum 2000 minutes played)

Hansen still provides, even without his "breakout" season included, the fourth best rate of offensive production of any forward on the Canucks, while playing a majority third line role (playing behind six other forwards in terms of opportunity). He's also still well within a "top-six" rate of production.

And he's not accomplishing this while playing easy minutes. In terms of Corsi Rel Q of C (the standard measure of competition), Hansen's 5v5 minutes have ranked him in the following positions (among active Canucks regulars at forward):

2012-13: 5th (8), 2011-12: 2nd (4), 2010-11: 3rd (5), 2009-10: 2nd (7), 2008-09: 3rd (3)

*Note that the second number (in parentheses) for each year is Hansen's ranking without filtering for games played or active status. That means that Canucks forwards with as little as one game played and/or past players no longer on the team are also included in the rankings.

No matter how you choose to look at it, Hansen has played against middle to high level competition during each of the past three seasons (mostly against high level opponents) and still managed to put-up impressive numbers.

In terms of Hansen's zone starts, here are his offensive zone starts percentages for the past five seasons:

2012-13: 52.3%, 2011-12: 40.4%, 2010-11: 34.3%, 2009-10: 49.8%, 2008-09: 41.4%

It's no coincidence that the first season that Hansen enjoyed better than 50% offensive zone starts is also the year in which he led the Canucks in offensive production rate at even strength. As for the other years, he's mostly played in the low 40s, which suggests a two-way role with a defensive focus. His 2010-11 usage suggests the role of a primary shutdown forward.

I would be remiss if I didn't also offer some additional commentary on those league-wide rankings for Hansen that I listed after each of the samples from the last five, four, three, two, and one season(s).

Most people have probably heard this argument before. There are thirty teams in the NHL. Each team has 6 players who are, by definition, their top-six forwards. That means that every season, there should be 180 top-six forwards and 90 first line forwards.

So what do we make of the fact that Hansen ranks in the top-90 forwards in the entire NHL in each of the five samples I looked at? Even when we throw out his 2012-13 production, he still ranked #109, just outside of those 90 players. And last season, he was nearly in the top-30 players in the entire NHL.

How does one associate those numbers with anything other than "top-six" offensive production? Personally, I can't call Hansen's even strength production anything other than a solid top-six rate of offense (and arguably "first line"--although some people will scoff at that).

So that's Hansen's offensive ability, in terms of even strength play. As I stated early into this post, line combinations and line numbers should only be based on even strength play (as these configurations only exist during even strength). So if Hansen produces at a rate among the 90 top forwards in the whole NHL, where does his production rank him?

Again, I like using Hansen on the third line. In recent years, he's become an elite player there and this is a wonderful luxury to have on the Canucks. However, he is clearly a top-six forward who is being used as a third liner. He is not a third liner who occasionally plays in the top-six.

As far as whether the team would "suck" if Hansen played on the second line, I suppose it comes down to tradeoffs. How much does the team lose from taking Hansen off of the third line? Lately, I'd argue that Hansen has become a player who often carries his line and drives the play of the unit he's on. So when he's on the third line, the Canucks have a solid third line. Without him (and without a capable replacement), the third line may suffer. However, due to Hansen's rate of production, he can only improve the performance of the second line by joining it (as he produces offense at a higher rate than any of the Canucks' current "second line" options, including Ryan Kesler). As the second line has been an issue in Vancouver for much of the past several seasons, it might come down to a question of whether or not having a better second line is worth having a worse third line?

However, what is clear is that by no means would any NHL team "suck" just because they had Jannik Hansen on their second line. Most teams in the NHL would actually enjoy a lift in their 5v5 rate of offensive production if they replaced any one of their second liners with Jannik Hansen (even if we're talking his numbers over the total of the past five seasons--his last season performance would improve many NHL first lines).

NOTE: Clearly, the above (and some of what follows) is based on a statistical/mathematical argument. This doesn't factor in the so-called "intangibles" such as player chemistry and familiarity into potential line combinations. Jannik Hansen can't just be be swapped in for any player and expected to perform at 100% the same rate as what he's done in past situations. However, on balance, his production suggests that he would be a capable replacement for most top-six players in the NHL and that he'd improve 2nd lines more often than he'd weaken them.

So no, I don't think the Canucks would "suck" with Hansen on the 2nd line. That said, I'm also not sure they'd be markedly better, given what Hansen brings to the third line in his present role (with occasional fill-in duties in the top-six).

And, if we're going to tell the whole story about Jannik Hansen, we should also consider the following:

Hansen has recently become the Canucks #1 forward penalty killer, in terms of PKTOI (he plays the most minutes of any Canucks forward while shorthanded).

Hansen has also been the Canucks' top power play contributor, in terms of on-ice team effect (meaning the statistics that measure a team's performance while a certain player is on the ice) for the samples of last season (among all Canucks in 2012-13), the last two seasons (among all Canucks from 2011-13), the last three seasons (among active Canucks only from 2010-13), the last four seasons (among all Canucks from 2009-13), and the last five seasons (among all Canucks from 2008-13).

So really, let's just all "wake-up" and agree that Jannik Hansen is a top-six forward in the NHL (who is only being used as a third liner).

If we want to get all "pie in the sky" about Hansen, we could talk about whether or not he's the most valuable player on the team, given everything he provides and his relatively meagre cap hit. This isn't really a claim I'm trying to make but it's the only one that I can think of that would warrant the kind of disagreements we see about this player.

As for Hansen's ranking in terms of the Canucks forwards' rates of offensive production, there shouldn't be any reason for disagreement (except maybe between whether he's actually "top-six" or "first line" ;)--again, not really serious in suggesting Hansen's a true "first liner" and this is definitely not the focus of the overall point I'm trying to make).

Whew! I hope this is the last long post I need to write on Jannik Hansen.

(LOL at how long this post is. Kudos to anyone who reads the whole thing!)

NOTE: All statistics used in this post were sourced from either behindthenet.ca or stats.hockeyanalysis.com

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