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SN: Luongo has played himself off Team Canada, Reimer among likely starters


Everybody Hates Raymond

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http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/price-reimer-holtby-lead-sochi-goalie-race/

One of the difficulties assessing goaltenders is separating perception from actual performance. Perception can be driven by data—a high save percentage equals a great goaltender. It can also be driven by great playoff performances that result in the “clutch” label, which can even get you into the Hall of Fame.

The problem is that perception can sometimes be contradicted by the things that drive it. James Reimer has had three seasons of .920-plus save percentage performances. In his one playoff appearance he put up a .924 save percentage, yet this data is nullified by a nine-minute stretch last spring that ended in an historic loss for the Maple Leafs.

It is one of the reasons why I am skeptical about relying heavily on experience when choosing an Olympic goaltender. I do not doubt or object to it being important, but I don’t think it is more important than recent performance. I don’t quite understand the hierarchy of assessing it’s worth.

Roberto Luongo is going to make Team Canada based on reputation and experience. He has an Olympic gold-medal and knows how to win. But that reputatation is easily contradicted when it comes to his playoff performances against the Chicago Blackhawks or his Stanley Cup Final meltdown. Marc-Andre Fleury won a Stanley Cup and made one of the most memorable http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kANbgKP6seM, but that experience hasn’t been able stop a flurry of goals in recent playoff games. Since that save in 2009, Fleury has an .880 save percentage through 809 playoff shots.

Experience hasn’t even played a large factor in Olympic goaltending success. Jim Craig didn’t have the Olympic resumé of Vladislav Tretiak in 1980. Martin Brodeur had never started an Olympic game entering 2002. Henrik Lundqvist had zero Olympic and just 40 NHL games under his belt when he arrived in Turin in 2006. I can’t quantify how many save-percentage points experience is worth because its assessment is flawed and open to biased interpretation. Reputations don’t stop pucks, just ask Brodeur in 2010.

Based on save percentage alone, Reimer—who is struggling to maintain his hold on the Maple Leafs blue ice—has the strongest argument for Sochi, but will it hold up to the fine tooth comb of the Shot Quality Project?

Pretty interesting article, rest is at the link.

I'm curious how they decided that the Leafs backup is more of a likely starter than Luongo... He has a lot less games played and a lot less wins than Luongo.

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Wins are a team stat not a goalie stat.

Yes but goalies are also one of the biggest determining factor in whether or not a team wins or loses. If the goalie lets in 10 goals in the first period, you really expect your team to rally from 10-0 and score 11 goals in the next 40 minutes? No.

Besides, it's Sportsnet. Nobody on Sportsnet knows jack about hockey as exemplified by their panel of Nick Kypreos, Doug MacLean, and sometimes Mike Keenan.

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In half as many games Reimer has made only 200 fewer saves than Luongo.

I'm not arguing Luongo shouldn't be the starter, I'm arguing Reimer should be there as the 3rd string.

Reimer struggles to get starts in Toronto, and even then, most of the teams he plays against are garbage bottom feeders that get 25 to 30 shots a game but very few decent chances.

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With Reimer and Holtby...ruh roh look at stats how many of lus losses were a 1 or 2 goal game?and Reimer had how many games this season alone where he had to stop 50 shots because his team left him to save them?Also remember the Toronto game even Don Cherry said Toronto played Reimer knowing they were going to lose because they cant get enough shots to save their lives

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Reimer struggles to get starts in Toronto, and even then, most of the teams he plays against are garbage bottom feeders that get 25 to 30 shots a game but very few decent chances.

Lol, 25-30 shots.

The Leafs are lucky to get 30 shots against, normally its around 40+.

But now I see its senseless arguing with someone who has pretty clearly not watched a Leafs game all season.

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It's great, Boyle uses some impressive numbers and formula to state his case which is obviously hard to argue against.

except for one minor thing.

every single goalie he has said should go is int he east.

he is an eastern based writer.

90% of his articles are on eastern teams period

http://www.sportsnet.ca/author/chris-boyle/

Not even Mark Spector is this biased and that is an impressive thing to say. Glancing over his body of work it is entirely eastern based with a nod here and there to the western end of things. I think what Mr. Boyle is forgetting is that the west is better than the east. the west plays more meaningful games. They face stiffer comptetition and far more incidents involving the goaltenders.

Do you want a goaltender that can make 45 really easy saves in a losing cause. or do you want a goalie that fights and works to make 34 saves in a win?

To include Holtby over Luongo is beyond incredible.

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