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Little bit of an analysis on the picks in our range.


Tom Sestito

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IF what you say is true about 1st rounders vs. 7th rounders, the Detroit's scouting staff should be FIRED instead of PRAISED. They picked a ton of BUSTS before they picked Z+D. If drafting is such a science then why would they let those 2 slide so far down the draft board and risk them being picked up by someone else? Drafting is NOT a science...it is a CRAPSHOOT. It's like trying to win in Vegas. You can take all the courses you want about a game of chance, you can study it, you can memorize all the stats etc that you want, but in the end it is still a game of chance. The odds are just about the same (in the overall grand scheme of drafting) of selecting a decent player at 25 as they are at drafting at 5. Case in point: 2004 we selected Cory Schneider 26th overall. Players that went above Cory: Cam Barker (3), Al Montoya (6), Olesz (7), Picard (8), Valabik (10), Tukonen (11), Thelen (12), Dubnyk (14), Schwarz (17), Kaspar (22), Chuko (24), Schremp (25). Tell me, if scouting is such a science, which one of these "higher picks" should we have taken instead of Cory?

If teams honestly rolled the dice these days as you say, then scouting departments wouldn't exist.

It's not a crapshoot at all. Teams spend millions on trying to get the best players now. They hold their own combines. They carefully select players based on extra information they gather over other teams. They seek out players that other ones may not be aware of. It's a highly competitive, highly stressful professional industry. And some teams are far better at it than others.

Yes, there will be busts no matter what, but at the end of the day, the better the team is at the scouting/drafting/development process, the better the team will be on the ice.

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@ BanTSN: OK so maybe the word "crapshoot" is a bit extreme, but it IS still no better than an "educated guess". Again, the scouts have all this data available to them (so chances are we will never again see a future superstar drafted at 200th overall), and yet there are still SO many draft mistakes made (more mistakes than successes). But I stand by my point: if we were to tank the rest of the season just so we might possibly (don't forget the lottery) move up a few places is pointless...history has shown that we'd have an equal chance at finding a good player drafting at 10 as we do drafting at 15...it's still going to be an "educated guess" at best.

I always say there's 2 winners each year in the NHL...the one that wins the cup, and the one that gets 1st overall. For the most part, everyone else is left to tweak on their own. And if you use the draft to tweak (and you don't have the #1) well you're playing with fire. There are FAR better ways (trade/FA market) to improve your team with proven players (and sometimes even proven players become a bust when signed to new teams) than to gamble doing it through the draft.

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I wouldn't necessarily call that "recent" - it's been a staple of the Redwings for some time, and arguably should be, particularly when you're talking about a highly competitive hockey team. Guys remain in their system until they are Detroit Redwings ready - and it would be senseless to argue that that approach somehow "hinders" their development. The proof is in the results - once again they have a signifcant wave of outstanding young talent, not particularly highly touted, that may be underestimated by folks on these boards - but that would contribute to the irony, wouldn't it? Names don't win Calder Cups.

The Wings might alter that approach somewhat by necessity in circumstances like this season when the bulk of their core has been injured, but those young players, not seemingly marquis or high picks, have stepped up and produced.

Yes, Yzerman could certainly be considered a V2.0 of that approach - and why wouldn't he take that approach - he's seen the process first hand for decades, and what results are possible when executed.

It's really not that debatable imo - look at the crop of young talent they are currently graduating and the next wave behind them, and people who think their system, their drafting, their approach to development are somehow being 'exposed' probably don't have the respect for that organization that they should.

Meh, maybe i hate on Detroit like you hate on, say Doughty?

Detroit is clearly one of, if not the class organizations in the league. But everything they do is not gold. For example, they have not really leap frogged TO, Detroit is 4-5-1 in its last 10 games. The Lafs have just slid underneath them. Alfredsson worked out this year, Weiss not so much. And they do sometimes go years without placing young players. Right now and last year are sort of their low point of the last 15 years following such a draught. Guess they are in recovery now. Nyquist looks like their next all star? :(

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Meh, maybe i hate on Detroit like you hate on, say Doughty?

Detroit is clearly one of, if not the class organizations in the league. But everything they do is not gold. For example, they have not really leap frogged TO, Detroit is 4-5-1 in its last 10 games. The Lafs have just slid underneath them. Alfredsson worked out this year, Weiss not so much. And they do sometimes go years without placing young players. Right now and last year are sort of their low point of the last 15 years following such a draught. Guess they are in recovery now. Nyquist looks like their next all star? :(

:) that's semantics Surfer.

I don't see the point of hating Detroit, whereas Doughty is clearly a whiner. :lol:

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2007: Gagner had 38 points last season in 48 games. He was injured early this season by Kassian.
2008: Hard to say what went wrong with Filatov. The guy was obviously super talented. Had a great season in the AHL right after being drafted and he absolutely dominated in the WJC that year.
2009: Ellis, De Haan, Kulikov are hardly top4 d-men.
2010:
Brett Connolly a bust? He's been ripping up the AHL for 2 years. Burmistrov got rushed into the NHL by the Thrashers, and then went back to Russia for the money. McIlrath shouldn't have gone top10. Rangers did a stupid decision there and everybody was surprised that McIlrath went so early. Fowler was a projected top3/top5 player in that draft and shouldn't have dropped as much as he did. Gormley also should have gone top10. Campbell is a solid goalie prospect, but i also think he's overrated. He isn't even a starter in the AHL and he have only played 12 games this season, so those numbers you report are kinda distorted.
You really shouldn't look too much into players draft positions. A 6th overall pick is obviously better than a 14th overall pick, no matter what you say. You will have more options. And just because someone gets picked 9th overall doesn't mean that every team in the league, or that every single scout in the world rate that player as a 9th overall pick. They might rate him lower, or they might rate him higher than that. Every year you see players getting picked earlier than expected, and you see players getting picked later than expected.
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This year's draft has a good top 4/5, a drop off but a good set in the 6-20 range, then it is terrible in the late first round. Not a bad draft, it just lacks the superstar high pick and depth.

No. You are saying this to justify drafting low but still not making the playoffs.

The franchise players are top 5, but first liners are still avail from 6 to 10.

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Honka is a risky pick, but he certainly has skills in demand around here.

Can anyone chime in on speed, explosiveness, dexterity of moves? Becoming an Erik Karlsson might be a stretch, but Honka needs to at least move like him to survive at his size...

His teammate Martin Brycen might make a solid 2knd round pick.

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