UnkNuk Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 The NHL Draft Lottery will be held on April 15, 2014.A convenient list, updated daily, showing the current standing and odds of winning for each non-playoff team can be found here:http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?id=115803Although the New Jersey Devils will receive the 30th pick overall for cap circumvention some years ago, should they miss the playoffs they would stay in the lottery and if they win it there would be a redraw according to John Shannon:https://twitter.com/JSportsnet/status/443779929617219584 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Are you kidding me? Why would New Jersey stay in the lottery? That only lowers everyone else's odds. They shouldn't even have a pick to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnkNuk Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 Are you kidding me? Why would New Jersey stay in the lottery? That only lowers everyone else's odds. They shouldn't even have a pick to begin with.I think it's because, while NJ isn't going to be allowed to win the lottery, they'll stay in the lottery, otherwise it would screw up the odds for the other teams that the NHL has decided upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayStation Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Can the Canucks please lose their last 7? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asian player Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I predict Edmonton drafts Ekblad but he refuses to play for the Oilers and goes to the KHL. The edmonton fans riot and Bettman just watches while he high fives the american owners. Jk but I used to be all for tanking but watching the canucks win 3 straight made me remember how good a win feels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Boudreau Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Frack the whole New Jersey organization. Why doesn't old Luo Lamoriello fire the coach again right before the playoffs so he can guide the team in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I think it's because, while NJ isn't going to be allowed to win the lottery, they'll stay in the lottery, otherwise it would screw up the odds for the other teams that the NHL has decided upon. That makes sense. They'll be like a 'blank.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nosferatu. Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Sam Reinhart and Bo Horvat as the #1 and 2 centers of the future would be nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Sam Reinhart and Bo Horvat as the #1 and 2 centers of the future would be nice.. It would take us trading Kesler to Anaheim for their two first round picks. Then swapping our 3 first round picks to Buffalo for the first overall. Not sure if Reinhart is worth that much. I'd rather pick 3 times in the first round than go all in for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnkNuk Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 That makes sense.They'll be like a 'blank.'Right. Although, it seems to me, by being a blank, the odds of the other thirteen teams winning the lottery will be increased slightly.For instance, if NJ finishes the season in, say, in tenth position for the draft, they should have a 2.1% chance of winning the draft lottery. But since they're not allowed to win the draft lottery, in effect that 2.1% chance doesn't exist. So that 2.1% chance should be divided equally among the other thirteen non-playoff teams.Or, at least, I think that's right. Someone with better math skills can correct me on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnkNuk Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 It would take us trading Kesler to Anaheim for their two first round picks. Then swapping our 3 first round picks to Buffalo for the first overall. Not sure if Reinhart is worth that much. I'd rather pick 3 times in the first round then go all in for him.All it would take is for the Canucks to win the draft lottery. Then we pick first and take whoever we want.Remember, at the end of the season, all the non-playoff teams have a (weighted) chance to win that first overall pick in the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merci Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 God the best case Scenario could have been Vancouver drafting 4th overall Having Ottawa's pick for 7th overall Now we're stuck with 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surtur Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Right. Although, it seems to me, by being a blank, the odds of the other thirteen teams winning the lottery will be increased slightly. For instance, if NJ finishes the season in, say, in tenth position for the draft, they should have a 2.1% chance of winning the draft lottery. But since they're not allowed to win the draft lottery, in effect that 2.1% chance doesn't exist. So that 2.1% chance should be divided equally among the other thirteen non-playoff teams. Or, at least, I think that's right. Someone with better math skills can correct me on this. i thought what ever position they finish in goes to the next team above them and they take 30th. so every team above them would move up one position and also the % would increase also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 All it would take is for the Canucks to win the draft lottery. Then we pick first and take whoever we want. Remember, at the end of the season, all the non-playoff teams have a (weighted) chance to win that first overall pick in the lottery. Yea, and we would have the 12th or 13th pick which is like a 3% chance. I wouldn't count on us winning the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Right. Although, it seems to me, by being a blank, the odds of the other thirteen teams winning the lottery will be increased slightly. For instance, if NJ finishes the season in, say, in tenth position for the draft, they should have a 2.1% chance of winning the draft. But since they're not allowed to win the draft, in effect that 2.1% chance doesn't exist. So that 2.1% chance should be divided equally among the other thirteen non-playoff teams. Or, at least, I think that's right. Someone with better math skills can correct me on this. It will alter the percentages but just slightly and this means it will be proportionately. If they removed the NJ Devils % it would skew the odds a touch more towards the front as there would be less ballots in the draw. Using your example, with the system in place, NJ's 2.1% is evenly divided amongst the other 13 teams, ie. a 0.1615% increase for each. If NJ's 2.1%, in your example, was removed completely the 1st overall draw would move from 25% (2500/10000) to 2500/9890 for 25.278%. At least, that's my guess. I'm not a statistician. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 i thought what ever position they finish in goes to the next team above them and they take 30th. so every team above them would move up one position and also the % would increase also? Apparently not. They will get their draw but they can't win. Every team is going to move up due to their absence regardless. I'm not sure what difference that would make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnkNuk Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 i thought what ever position they finish in goes to the next team above them and they take 30th. so every team above them would move up one position and also the % would increase also?Apparently not. Although that was what I thought would happen, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnkNuk Posted March 29, 2014 Author Share Posted March 29, 2014 It will alter the percentages but just slightly and this means it will be proportionately. If they removed the NJ Devils % it would skew the odds a touch more towards the front as there would be less ballots in the draw. Using your example, with the system in place, NJ's 2.1% is evenly divided amongst the other 13 teams, ie. a 0.1615% increase for each. If NJ's 2.1%, in your example, was removed completely the 1st overall draw would move from 25% (2500/10000) to 2500/9890 for 25.278%. At least, that's my guess. I'm not a statistician.I'm not a statistician either, but your math seems right to me.Do you, or does anyone else, know the mechanics of the lottery? Do they use a computer program to generate the name of the winning team? Or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theminister Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 I'm not a statistician either, but your math seems right to me.Do you, or does anyone else, know the mechanics of the lottery? Do they use a computer program to generate the name of the winning team? Or what? Do you know what can of worms you are opening with that question? This is CDC. No, I have no idea how they actually do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueLemming Posted March 29, 2014 Share Posted March 29, 2014 Are you kidding me? Why would New Jersey stay in the lottery? That only lowers everyone else's odds. They shouldn't even have a pick to begin with. I think for the sake of keeping everyone's odds the same. The tweet says they can only pick 30th. So they'll do the lottery, then move NJ to 30 and everyone slots up 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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