Quebec Election - Liberals Win Majority

[DonLever]

From the National Post:

A new poll of voter intentions released Wednesday evening puts Philippe Couillard’s Liberal Party ahead by a growing margin leading up to Monday’s provincial election.

The Liberals have support from 37% of decided voters compared to 28% for the Parti Québécois, 19% to François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec and 13% for Québec solidaire.

Then again, 7% of eligible voters remain undecided, and almost one-third (28%) of respondents said their vote could change, depending on what happens during the final stretch of the campaign

The Ipsos-Reid poll conducted for CTV is the second in two days to project a Liberal win by a comfortable margin — and to show the PQ’s support among francophones in free fall. A Forum Research poll released Monday put the Liberals in a position to win a majority government, with 41% of respondents choosing them over 29% who said they would vote PQ.

What is significant about the Ipsos-Reid poll is that it gives the Liberals and the PQ equal support among francophones, with 31% each, while the Liberals have 83% of support among anglophones.

“There was an exodus of votes from the PQ to the three other major parties, but especially to the CAQ and Québec solidaire,” explained Ipsos president Luc Durand. Support for both the CAQ and QS went up 3% since the last Ipsos Reid poll March 19. “There was a lot of bad news for the PQ in the last few days that didn’t help them

PQ Leader Pauline Marois has been dogged by allegations her husband solicited thousands of dollars from engineering firms to fund her leadership campaign. And after two debates, her personal popularity seems to have plummeted from a high of 35% in February to 25%.

Asked which candidate would make the best premier, 33% chose Couillard, 25% chose Marois, 25% chose Legault, while 13% chose QS’s Françoise David.

The poll was conducted online with 1,012 Quebecers between March 28 and April 1 — after the second acrimonious debate that many pundits said was dominated by Legault

Asked who their second choice would be, 33% said the CAQ, compared to 21% for Québec solidaire.

But the Ipsos-Reid poll also offered insight into which voters are the most decided.

Among the 72% who replied that “nothing short of an unforeseen emergency could stop me from getting to the voting booth and casting my vote,” support for the Liberals was greatest, with 40%, while 28% said they support the PQ, 18% the CAQ and 12% the QS.

Still, with five days left before the election, 28% of respondents said their vote “is movable depending on what happens in the rest of the campaign.”

That support for the PQ continues to fall is important. The francophone vote is now equally divided among Liberals and the PQ — the PQ is on a slippery slope. But a third of voters are saying they could still change their vote. It’s still a very volatile race

“That support for the PQ continues to fall is important,” Durand said. “The francophone vote is now equally divided among Liberals and the PQ — the PQ is on a slippery slope. But a third of voters are saying they could still change their vote. It’s still a very volatile race.”

The poll is considered accurate to within 3.5 percentage points

[The Great Dane]

We've seen this script before in BC. Nothing is decided yet especially with such a high amount still saying their mind could change (28%).

[Offensive Threat]

almost one-third (28%) of respondents said their vote could change, depending on what happens during the final stretch of the campaign

Really? Whoever gives that last good sound bite gets your vote? That one last minute campaign promise you know they cant keep?Thats what it comes down to?

Fun tactic: Dont vote at all. That way you can complain that this Government doest represent you and use that to justify your further lack of participation. Drinking yourself into a coma is optional.

[DonLever]

The polls could be wrong as in BC. We shall see tomorrow.

It really depends where the French vote go. If they abandon the PQ, the PQ will not form government.

[DonLever]

The polls close in one hour. Let the fun begin.

[drummer4now]

Lets hope the PQ are voted out... I heard something on CBC that the liberals are the legit frontrunners and favourites?

[Warhippy]

Libs just won a Quebec majority

[drummer4now]

Libs just won a Quebec majority

bye bye separatism?

[hockeyville88]

bye bye separatism?

We can only hope.

[CB007]

Libs just won a Quebec majority

No more religious prosecution... I mean, values charter, in Quebec.

[drummer4now]

No more religious prosecution... I mean, values chatter, in Quebec.

The basically shot themselves in the foot with that.. Should have announced it after the elections.

[Magikal]

I can't believe I found myself cheering for the Liberals but in this election I wasn't really left with much choice. Canada stays united this way so it's definitely a good thing.

The next BC election is going to be a tough one for me. I strongly believe everyone should vote but I absolutely hate every party we have for provincial elections. Federal elections always had me supporting the NDP (when Layton was alive) but now I feel pretty much the same towards our federal options as I do towards our provincial ones. It's like picking which pile of poop smells less putrid than the other.

[Offensive Threat]

Now if we could just end the equalization payments itd be all good.

[King Heffy]

I can't believe I found myself cheering for the Liberals but in this election I wasn't really left with much choice. Canada stays united this way so it's definitely a good thing.

The next BC election is going to be a tough one for me. I strongly believe everyone should vote but I absolutely hate every party we have for provincial elections. Federal elections always had me supporting the NDP (when Layton was alive) but now I feel pretty much the same towards our federal options as I do towards our provincial ones. It's like picking which pile of poop smells less putrid than the other.

I just follow ABC. Anything but Conservative.

[BanTSN]

Libs just won a Quebec majority

Good. They retain the right to be called Kaybeckers rather than Kwebeckers.

[Warhippy]

I can't believe I found myself cheering for the Liberals but in this election I wasn't really left with much choice. Canada stays united this way so it's definitely a good thing.

The next BC election is going to be a tough one for me. I strongly believe everyone should vote but I absolutely hate every party we have for provincial elections. Federal elections always had me supporting the NDP (when Layton was alive) but now I feel pretty much the same towards our federal options as I do towards our provincial ones. It's like picking which pile of poop smells less putrid than the other.

I hear ya

Politicians need to be changed as frequently as diapers, and for the same reason.

I'm voting NDP federally next time because I firmly believe the big two red and blue are both equally as terrible and as such I have to believe the NDP quite literally could do no worse than the Libs or Cons.

Provincially I'm swinging the same way because the guy we have locally is highly qualified for what he wants to do in politics whereas his competitor is the old mayor and only got in via sympathy vote and pandering to a specific demographic....the largest voting bloc.

There's literally no other appealing alternative is the honest truth

But this election in Quebec has basically been the death knell to the separatist movement in Quebec and hopefully all the nonsense talk of a referendum, because this was a very clear message.

[hockeyville88]

Quebec has spoken. What a beat down. And she resigns as leader of PQ. More like the people of Quebec put her in her place and she was left with no other option

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

All the ignorance and hate on Quebeckers on this forum for the last three months, and here we are.

[Common sense]

[DonLever]

SAINT-FÉLICIEN, QUE.—Philippe Couillard’s Quebec Liberal party sailed to an astonishing victory, winning a majority government in the provincial election that, five weeks ago, seemed destined to be won by the soveriegntist Parti Québécois.

The victory is a surprising achievement for the former Quebec health minister and neurosurgeon who just a few months ago was widely seen as an indecisive rookie leader.

Quebec’s rejection of the PQ extended to Marois herself, who lost her own seat to her Liberal rival.

Soon after that result was confirmed, an emotional Marois appeared before party supporters in Montreal to announce that she would resign as PQ leader, news that many were expecting given the election drubbing.

Marois says she congratulated Couillard and added, “we will respect this result.”

“I'm as disappointed as you, perhaps more than you.”

Prime Minister Stephen Harper said the election results show that Quebecers are not interested in a new debate over sovereignty.

“The results clearly demonstrate that Quebecers have rejected the idea of a referendum and want a government that will be focused on the economy and job creation,” Harper said in a statement.

The 56-year-old Couillard benefitted from Marois’s many campaign missteps and a disastrous campaign in which voters appeared to get cold feet when Pierre Karl Péladeau entered the race and said he wanted to make Quebec a country.

“We felt that we were headed into government. We obviously wanted a majority government . . . and I’m very confident and happy with these result,” former Liberal culture minister and television reporter Christine St-Pierre told Radio-Canada as the results were coming in.

“I’m a bit surprised. You have to be careful. You have to have confidence and not give up right until the end. That’s what’s important in an election campaign.”

Among the new Liberals elected were Couillard’s fiscal trio of Jacques Daoust, Martin Coiteux and Carlos Leitao, three nationally and internationally renowned economists who underscored the party message that this election was about who was best suited to turn around the province’s troubled economy.

The Liberals also won the riding of La Pinière, where the head of Quebec’s association of medical specialists and possible next health minister, Gaétan Barrette, was running against a long-time Liberal politician who split with Couillard’s party last fall and ran for re-election as an independent

The party’s decisive win is all the more significant given that the Liberals were booted from power just 18 months ago after years of damaging revelations that it had orchestrated illegal political financing schemes. Those revelations are subject of an ongoing police investigation by Quebec’s anti-corruption police force, something that Couillard’s opponents raised repeatedly throughout the campaign to little avail.

Though Couillard, who was health minister from 2003 to 2008, is not linked to the alleged wrongdoing, he will nonetheless have to answer for the Liberals as more revelations emerge from a provincial corruption inquiry that will hear testimony in the coming weeks on the ties between construction firms bidding on government contracts and Quebec’s political parties.

Liberal supporter Marina Lessard, who works at the Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, said Couillard was able to combat that difficult past with a respectful tone throughout the campaign.

“He was always respectful in his responses while the others were too critical,” she said. “We want to have the peace. We want to have a period of stability.”

She said that in the Lac-Saint-Jean region, normally an area of strong PQ support, the Liberal leader also benefited from the backing of students after Marois’s decision to increase tuition fees. She had campaigned in 2012 as a sympathizer and ally of the student movement following the Maple Spring strikes the forced universities and colleges to cut short a school semester.