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Which prospect is most likely to fall out of top 5?


Nessnuck27

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The team should think about trading #6 for #10 and a 2nd/3rd...then draft Brendan Perlini

Not sure if that is how Linden wants to sell season tickets. Get rid of our high draft pick in years for a measly 2nd or 3rd rounder that might not even play for many years. Going from 6 to 10 can be a huge gap if one of the top 5 was to drop. We also know that any of the top 5 has a much higher ceiling and more valued in trades compared to Brendan Perlini. If we ever did trade the number 6 pick, I would want a high end prospect that is ready to play in the NHL. Similar to how Schneider was traded for the #9 overall, I'd want a similar or a higher return.

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I hope we get Virtanen. But to answer the thread question probably Dal Colle.

Florida - Ekblad

Buffalo - Bennett

Edmonton - Draisatl

Calgary - Ritchie (wishful thinking)

NYI - Reinhart

To be honest I think the top 5 goes as expected in just a different order. Don't see any of them dropping.

Islanders probably want a winger, is Dal Colle a centre? Maybe Reinhart/Bennett drop. Too many question marks. Do teams go BPA or pick by need? The more I think about it the more confused I get.

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Not sure if that is how Linden wants to sell season tickets. Get rid of our high draft pick in years for a measly 2nd or 3rd rounder that might not even play for many years. Going from 6 to 10 can be a huge gap if one of the top 5 was to drop. We also know that any of the top 5 has a much higher ceiling and more valued in trades compared to Brendan Perlini. If we ever did trade the number 6 pick, I would want a high end prospect that is ready to play in the NHL. Similar to how Schneider was traded for the #9 overall, I'd want a similar or a higher return.

I don't think the price to move from #10 to # 6 will only be a 2nd or 3rd.

In the 2013 Draft, it cost a 2nd round pick (#58) to move from #20 to #18. The price to move spots in the top-10 is much higher.

I'd think that the cost (for moving from #10 to #6) would either be multiple picks or a 2nd + a player/prospect.

My opinion is that the Canucks should be exploring this option. Ideally, they have a couple offers from different teams on the table for draft day. Both sides (the Canucks and whoever they might deal with) would likely agree to wait until the the top-5 have picked before deciding whether or not to proceed with the exchange.

The Canucks would want to wait and see if anyone drops (and hopefully take any of the consensus top-5 if they become available).

And whoever might be interested in acquiring #6 overall will likely have a specific player in mind. They'll need to be sure that he's available so they'll want to wait as well.

Depending on how the Canucks have this draft ranked, they might decide that the guy they have at #6 (based on their internal rankings) should still be available a few picks later. If this is the case, they should definitely trade their position for more assets.

And I think that the STHs who actually follow the draft will have no problem understanding this.

If the Canucks came away with an exciting player at #10 (and there are plenty good options in the #6-15 range), plus they were able to come away with extra picks (at least one of which should be a high 2nd), a good prospect, and/or a roster player, I could see the pundits calling the Canucks (and Linden) one of the "winners" of this draft and the organization actually getting a boost in the process.

As far as worrying about "a measly 2nd or 3rd rounder that might not even play for many years," I'd say that the majority of the guys picked in the 1st round (and nearly everyone picked after the top-5) will not be playing NHL hockey for a few years.

Most of these guys will almost certainly be heading back to junior and then playing AHL for 1-2 years. I'd bet that 80% or more of the first rounders won't see NHL ice (beyond maybe a handful of games) until they're 20+ years old.

It's all about selling excitement and future potential to your fan base on draft day. Very few teams will be drafting an actual roster player for the 2014-15 season.

Having more picks means having a few more names getting written up on the blogs and in the local papers. This could actually provide more of a positive feeling about this draft then what would be the difference in potential/upside between player #6 and player #10 (especially in this particular draft).

I'm not saying they should definitely trade #6. There are many scenarios where I'd want the Canucks to pick at #6. But there are also several scenarios where I think the team would be better served by trading #6 for a later pick (and picking up assets in the process).

EDIT:

And that 2013 case of Detroit trading 1st round "position for volume" is an excellent example of how the Canucks could really get a win out of trading the #6 overall.

In 2013, Detroit traded #18 to San Jose for #20 and #58. San Jose picked Mirco Mueller (a solid, 2-way defenseman who could eventually become a cornerstone type for their defense) and Detroit picked Anthony Mantha (an exciting goalscoring winger with massive size) and Tyler Bertuzzi (a "high energy, high effort" guy who was considered to have limited upside).

Today, Mantha is generally ranked higher than Mueller (although both are solid picks and should be good players).

So Detroit didn't really lose anything by picking later. They likely wanted Mantha anyway and would have picked him with #18.

But the wildcard is Bertuzzi. Once considered more of an "energy" type with limited offense, and also having injury concerns after some head/neck injuries, Bertuzzi managed to get back to nearly 1.2 points/game in an injury shortened 2013-14 season. Currently, he's tearing up the OHL playoffs with 8 goals in 11 games for Guelph (only two goals off of the OHL playoffs lead) and he's sitting at #13 overall in playoff points.

If the Canucks traded #6 for #10, they should be able to secure a much greater return that could give them a couple or more shots at adding additional prospects like a Tyler Bertuzzi (while they also might end-up with a better player at #10 than whoever gets picked at #6).

Of course, the 2013 example is Detroit and we don't have their scouting staff or their luck at the draft. :(

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this is how i see the draft going:

1. Ekblad (they need to improve next year so tallon takes the guy who is most NHL ready, they dont need anymore centers and its a little bit of a stretch to take MDC in this spot)

2. Bennet (tim murray likes guys who play with an edge and hes gone on record saying he really likes bennet)

3. Draisital (edmonton needs a big #2 center, i've listend to edmonton fans and media and this is their consensus choice)

4. Reinhart/Ritchie/Virtanen (burke is the one guy i could see going off the board by taking ritchie or virtanen but its hard to see him passing on sam reinhart, also dont think MDC is a brian burke type of player)

5. Dal Colle ( they dont need another center, if MDC is still there the take him, if burke passes on reinhart i cant see snow taking him either with all the centers he has already)

In short, people may be surprised how the draft goes, believe it or not i think if anyone one of the consensus top 5 slip down the draft it will be sam reinhart.[/quote

Calgary with a one two punch of Monahan and Reinhart..Pretty much sets them up for the next decade

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I hope we get Virtanen. But to answer the thread question probably Dal Colle.

Florida - Ekblad

Buffalo - Bennett

Edmonton - Draisatl

Calgary - Ritchie (wishful thinking)

NYI - Reinhart

To be honest I think the top 5 goes as expected in just a different order. Don't see any of them dropping.

Islanders probably want a winger, is Dal Colle a centre? Maybe Reinhart/Bennett drop. Too many question marks. Do teams go BPA or pick by need? The more I think about it the more confused I get.

Reinhart is a stud, don't think he'll drop to fifth.
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I hope we get Virtanen. But to answer the thread question probably Dal Colle.

Florida - Ekblad

Buffalo - Bennett

Edmonton - Draisatl

Calgary - Ritchie (wishful thinking)

NYI - Reinhart

To be honest I think the top 5 goes as expected in just a different order. Don't see any of them dropping.

Islanders probably want a winger, is Dal Colle a centre? Maybe Reinhart/Bennett drop. Too many question marks. Do teams go BPA or pick by need? The more I think about it the more confused I get.

Calgary fans would lynch Burke / GM? if they passed on Reinhart being available at #4.

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Doesn't Max play for Calgary too. 1, 2, 3 punch with Monahan S. Reinhart M. Reinhart?

I'd pee the bed if we got Reinhart though. Slap Kes on his wing and I'm in hockey heaven. Virtanen is my second pick. But I seriously doubt Reino drops out of the top 5. He has brothers on two of the top 5 teams, that may be enough to get him picked.

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Calgary fans would lynch Burke / GM? if they passed on Reinhart being available at #4.

Yeah I agree but the thing about the draft is anything can happen. Seth Jones was consensus #2 last year at least I thought so, and he went 4th overall. Not a huge drop but we never know for sure what happens, Mantha went 20th I think he could've gone top 10. Shink was top 10 dropped mid 20's. Of course that's a terrible comparison but still people drop, off the boards go up.

With that said I would be very surprised to see Reinhart not go top 3. Bennett Ekblad and Reinhart I feel should be top three. Edmonton says they like Draisatl but I don't know. Gonna be interesting to see how things go.

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Ekblad goes 1.. Florida has 4+ good centres

Bennett will not go past 3.. stop dreaming.. I personally think he will be the best all around player coming out of this draft.. Id take him over Reinhart if I was Buffalo.. Curious to see if Edmonton moves 3 or not

Dal Colle i think should go 4.. Guys a stud.. Would feel more comfortable taking him at 4 if he didnt play on such a stacked team though.. Always has great players around him dishing him the puck, including Cassels

Leon's the most boring player Ive seen since Joe Thornton. I really hope we don't get him, Edmonton can have him even though he may be more useful then any of our other options at 6. Although Ehlers and Nylander are exciting, I really don't think we should go that route.

*The players most balanced with size strength shot and skill are Virtanen Ritchie Perlini. For people who havent got to see more then just highlights of them, here's what I see from the few CHL and U-18 games ive seen from them:

Virtanen: Defenceman bounce off of him.. I havent seen a guy do so much hitting when he's the one with the puck.. If you try an open ice hit on him, you'll be the one going down.. The talk about his skating is true... He flies whether going forward or backwards.. Has a very good shot.. Right handed which we could use.. Didnt have too much offensive support, but his dmen are good at getting him the puck, he takes it from there.. Not a great passer, needs to improve that part of his game for sure

Ritchie: Beast, but looks a bit unmotivated at times.. bit lazy.. Has Kassian like vision.. Can fight and hit... Shot is good.. Defence is meh... People say his issue is consistency.. He and Cornel have great chemsitry and find each other well.. So strong on the puck and with the puck, but yet still plays out on the perimeter so much.. He creates scoring chances from out there, but might not have success there in the NHL.. Project

Perlini: Quick release.. wrist shot like Naslund... He comes in on LW and snipes them in all day.. On PP he plays the right side and often burries NHL back door type goals.. He has good vision and knows where to be on the ice.. Makes space for players around him.. Very good all around.. Didnt have much help so carried team every game Ive seen.. Playing with better players on Canada and he's now the best player on the team.. Tough to get the puck off him.. Everyone says Virtanen or Ritchie, but if it turns out Perlini, dont be disappointed.. He may easily become the best of the 3 http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=114013

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My guess would be Sam Bennett.

Draft will go something like this

Florida- ekblad

Buffalo- Reinhart

Edmonton- draisaitl

Calgary- Ritchie

New York - dal colle

Vancouver- Sam Bennett

I would take anyone on that list, but Bennett goes to Edmonton at 3. I think its Ritchie at 6. I would still take Jake... "Take Jake!"
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One thing to note is he jumped into the top 10 just in the last ranking. I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped to top 10-15 given his recent lack luster performance. Organizations want players that can perform when it counts the most. He hasn't proven that he is capable of that. The name the German Gretzky isnt something we want influencing our decision but he is nothing like Gretzky. His lack of speed is his greatest weakness. He doesn't use his size the way he could and is extremely slow.

Slow is a killer when making the transition to the NHL,

More talented players lose their shot at the big time due to lack of speed then any other quality.

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Anyway,

The only thing I care about is that we somehow swing a deal to draft one of the top 3 centers available.

Reinhart, Bennet, Draisaitl (Although I'm not 100% sold on him)

We need a true offensive center prospect...badly...a real talent who plays a 200Ft. game and has the ability to create offense out of nothing.

It's the only thing standing between this team and a new dark age,

No thanks to the "power forwards" who bull their way through junior but are exposed at the NHL level.

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I think Edmonton will take Bennett imo, whod fit there very nicely and really give them a perfect fit for a #2 C with #1 upside whod have guys like Yakupov and Perron on his wings. People talk about their D, but kids like Nurse, Klefbom, Marancin, and Schults are going to evolve into some pretty good d-men. And they might actually have a decent tandem with Fasth and Scrivens, at least as good or better than what we've got going on for us. Thers a decent chance that they could opt for Daisiaitl instead, but I think the tenacious Dougie Gilmore replica is a better option for this club.

One of the big wild cards in the top 5 are the Flamers, as theyll have an interesting choice to make.... Looking at their team and depth chart, they have veterans like Hudler and Stajan down the middle, while Monahan and Backlund have had pretty successfull seasons at center. Theyre real thin on the wing, but have prospects Gaudreau, Baertschi, and Poirer whom will all likely be on the team if theyre still a part of the organization. I think Dal Colle is a pick that makes sense for them, as does Ritchie, but MDC is clearly the better player at this point in time, and will go before Ritchie imo.

What will the NYI do with their pick? Use it on Draisaitl, Ritchie, or others? Or give it to Buffalo? If they use it, Im not sold on them taking a center in Draisaitl as they have Tavares, Strome, Bailey, Nelson, Nielsen, Czikas.... Theyll take DalColle if hes on the board, if not, I could see them take Ehlers or Ritchie, or give the pick to Buffalo. IF Buffalo gets that pick, I also see them staying away from picking a center as theyll take Reinhart with the #2 selection, and currently having Hodgson, Girgensons, and Grigorenko, theyll be after a winger as well.

Thus if any player falls, itll certainly be Draistail, and I actually think theres a very reasonable chance that it happens, with many of the teams picking top 5 already being deep with young centers. However the package of size, speed, and skill might be too tough to pass on reguardless of organizational depth.... What might be the difference maker is his underwhelming performance in this years post season, while if Ehlers continues to light it up into the Memorial Cup, his value could very well jump into the top 5.

Vancouver should and will jump all over this pick if available. He's Malkin-esq with his size an array of offensive talent, and he's big enough to play pro right now. IN 2011, he scored 192 points in 26 games with an under 16 team in Germany.... Regardless of competition, thats crazy talk. Following that season with the U-18 team, He scored 56 points in 35 games. Hes got 14 points in 11 games with Germany U-18 worlds...12 points in 12 games with the WJHC U-20s (all without much of a supporting cast), and finished his 2nd junior season with 105 points in 64 games. Theres little doubt that this kid will put up offensive numbers at the NHL level, and is currently 6'1" - 208.... Not holding my breathe, but hes my bet to drop if anyone does.

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Burkie's assessment of the top 5...

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=3011

"From the Brian Burke Lunch, he went through the top 10...here is what I got out of it:
Bennett - He loves him Competes, plays all 3 zones, tough, and sticks up for himself. Not afraid to drop the gloves.
Ekblad - I got the sense that if we won the lottery, he would be the pick. Burke said he builds from the line out, and he is a 25min guy. Mature, hard hitting. Said that his knock is that he wouldn't drop the gloves, but Burke said if you are hitting clean, you don't have to.
Reinhart - Tough player, high compete level, watched him tear apart the Hitmen.
Dal Colle - Big guy, skates well, uses his body. Reading between the lines, it sounded like Burke question's his 'compete'.
Draisatl - This is almost exactly what Burke said 'Draisatl is a big guy...I don't like him. lets move on.' Unless he is throwing out a smoke-screen, cross him off your wish list.
Ritchie - Carries about 10 lbs too much, but your prototypical power forward. Will be scoring goals in the pros for years! I am guessing if we land at 5, he will be our pick (based only on what Burke said today)."

I think Drais goes to Edmonton anyways, but Burkie doesn't seem to like Dal Colle all that much either. If either of these guys fell to Cal, BB might jump to Ritchie; being more truculent and all. More than likely, he'll end up with Reinhart.

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