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Draft Prospects after IIHF U18 World Championships: Big 6 or Big 5


JamesB

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So far the consensus on the 2014 draft is that that there are the "Big 5" -- 5 blue chip prospects and then 4 or 5 others in spots 6 though 10 who are a definite step down from the top 5 and hard to rank.

However, the U18 World Championships should make Canuck fans feel good as it looks like the Big 5 are really the big Big 6.

The top two picks will likely be Ekblad -- who projects as a franchise D and potential Norris trophy candidate, and Reinhart. The next three are generally thought to be Bennett, Dal Colle and Draisaitl. Then we have the group of Virtanen, Ritchie, Perlini, Ehlers, and Nylander. But it looks like Nylander has moved up to the top group. He is on fire in the IIHF Under 18 tournament. He has 16 points in 6 games to lead the tournament in scoring by several points. And he is +9. The top Canadian is Virtanen with 5 pts. Perlini has 3 pts. Admittedly, Nylander inflated his totals in some lopsided wins against weaker team but still his performance is very impressive.

It is quite possible that Nylander could be taken before Dal Colle or Draisaitl and, if not, the Canucks should be happy to take him in the #6 slot.

I admit it would be great to move up and get Ekblad or Reinhart, and it would be nice to get Virtanen -- a local kid with skill and toughness. But it would be hard to justify taking Virtanen ahead of Nylander, and Nylander could end up being the best forward in the draft.

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My belief is that it's hard to climb at this late stage unless it helps a tie breaker in the minds of a scouting staff.

I think it's much easier to fall though if a young player comes out and craps the bed.

This tournament is to showcase skills and team play after a long season. It's a matter of the prospect still having fire and gas in the tank. NHL teams are curious to see if the prospect is conditioned enough to still be a force in April against top competition.

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Their stocks would have to drop/rise. They watch the others in playoffs too to see how they perform at higher pace and more meaningful games. I bet Nylander goes top 5. Someone like Draisitl whom hasn’t played since the first round in the WHL may fall out of the top 5 (He’s not playing in the U-18). Also it all depends on how they do at the combine. Some may get out of shape and show they don’t have the perseverance for the game like others do.

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If Nylander gets 3 more points against Canada in the bronze medal game, he will have the all-time most points recorded by a swede in this tournament. 2 and he's tied for the lead with Peter Forsberg and 2 others. 1 and he's tied with Naslund for second.

:)

He has 15 points, whereas his team has 30 goals scored. Pretty darn good numbers.

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Their stocks would have to drop/rise. They watch the others in playoffs too to see how they perform at higher pace and more meaningful games. I bet Nylander goes top 5. Someone like Draisitl whom hasn’t played since the first round in the WHL may fall out of the top 5 (He’s not playing in the U-18). Also it all depends on how they do at the combine. Some may get out of shape and show they don’t have the perseverance for the game like others do.

The combine is going to determine a lot. For example, if Ehlers comes in at six foot and 175 pounds plus then I see him jumping into the top five.

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My belief is that it's hard to climb at this late stage unless it helps a tie breaker in the minds of a scouting staff.

I think it's much easier to fall though if a young player comes out and craps the bed.

This tournament is to showcase skills and team play after a long season. It's a matter of the prospect still having fire and gas in the tank. NHL teams are curious to see if the prospect is conditioned enough to still be a force in April against top competition.

 

This is probably the only time scouts get to see him play against his peers, so I think it has more of an impact on which spot he gets drafted

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