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How Long Will It Take For Canucks To Be Elite Again?


BurgerKing

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I'm very frustrated at this point in time as a canucks fan, If only we could have pulled it off in 2011. Moving on, realistically how long until we are back there and competing for the cup again?

The last time we missed the playoffs we had the Sedins, Kesler, Luongo and Edler already, and it didn't take long at all. We lost Linden, Naslund, Morrison and Cooke. We added Demitra, Bernier, Ryan Johnson and *Sundin. Burrows and Raymond also became much better players. The biggest thing was changing the style of play, personnel didn't change significantly.

This current version has Tanev, Kassian and Lack as young guys who could possibly get better; similar stage in their career as the Sedins, Kes and Edler were in 2008. We should get someone young who can play top 6 minutes from the Kesler trade to add to that list. The 2008 team didn't have many uncoming prospects, Raymond was it. This team has Horvat, Fox, Gaunce, Shinkaruk, Jensen and Schroeder as legit prospects. It's a fair assumption 2-3 of these guys will become NHL regulars in the next 2-3 years.

Unfortunately the free agency landscape is different now, and it's unlikely we will be able to insert a couple top six forwards into the lineup like we were able to in 2008-09, Demitra and Sundin. Although Canucks showed a lot of resolve with their desire for Sundin, part of that came from ownership, I suppose it is possible we go agressively for Stasny, he seems to be the only one worth over paying for of all the free agents this year.

The 08-09 Canucks went from a team that missed the playoffs to losing in the second round of the playoffs, a loss that was considered a disappointment vs a young Blackhawks team. I don't expect anything like that next year, but I beleive we will comfortably make the playoffs and be on the upswing. From there it's on Benning to make some shrewd and opportunistic trades and free agent signings. Eg How Gillis got Hamhuis, Malhotra, Ehrhoff and Samuelsson.

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I think this team will be elite again in about 3 years, mabye in 2 if Benning makes the right moves. If we can get a current or future 1C to replace Henrik when the times right, plus make significant changes to the backend I believe we'll be elite again sooner than later.

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Honestly if we keep Kesler and get some depth, a new coach may be all we need to reach the playoffs again. No we cannot compete with the Kings and Ducks, but the Sharks are about to blow up their team so we might fare better against them, and we've had St. Louis, Chicago and Colorado's number for a couple of years now despite them being miles ahead of us in the standings. That's really only 2 teams (Minnesota has started owning us of late too though) that we struggle against.

I believe Torts drove this team into the ground, and that the Sedins and Kesler are still world-class players. They're still capable of 20-30 goals and 70 point seasons which is more than the Ranger's top players scored and all we really need.

This team has depth coming up through the ranks as well. We've still got Higgins, Burrows, Hansen, Booth and Santorelli who are all capable of 15-20 goals which is what you need from middle-6 players. Richardson and Matthias can quite comfortably score 10 goals as very solid and physical 4th liners. Now we've got Kassian and Jensen coming up who can score 15 easily, and may break-out to become 20-30 goal scorers next season as they're definately poised to do so but we'd need to be lucky and manage them properly.

As for our defence we've still got one of the best top-4 in the NHL. Last season was a shocker, but up until the half way point we had the best PK in the league and a top-5 defence and goals against. Sure they all had down seasons offensively, but this defensive squad is still solid and still young enough to contribute.

Now looking at young guys who can come in, we've got Horvat and Shinkaruk who are most likely NHL ready. Shinkaruk was the last player to get cut from camp last season so you know these 2 guys are ready. Gaunce, Cassels and Lain are much more of a stretch. Corrado and Stanton played admirably and would be great as a 6/7 defenceman. And then there's our #6 pick.

Our only glaring hole right now is in net - Lack simply cannot play 60-70 games and I wouldn't trust Markstrom to play well with more than 15-20 games. Based on that, we're only a couple of UFA signings or one trade and some call-ups away from playoff hockey UNDER THE RIGHT COACH.

I would suggest - sign Hiller to a 4M deal and have him play in front of Lack. If we buy-out Booth, try and go for Vbrata who can bring some much needed speed and skill into our powerforward-heavy lineup.

Sedin - Sedin - Kassian
Jensen - Kesler - Vbrata

Higgins - Santorelli - Hansen

Burrows - Richardson - Matthias

Horvat

Edler - Tanev

Hamhuis - Bieksa

Garrison - Stanton

Weber/Corrado

Hiller

Lack

Under a good coach like Bylsma or Desjardins, that team makes the playoffs maybe 7 or 8 times out of 10. The only reason it doesn't is if our depth players really struggle to score, but all they're really needed to score is around 15 goals +/- 5 which isn't that much of an ask. If we focus on our strengths (defense) and have younger guys (Jensen, Kassian) playing more important minutes, there's no reason we can't compete next season. Tortorella brought everyone's numbers down in the second half of the season, but up until Christmas we had a firm grip on the 1st wild card spot and challenged the big top-3.

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Honestly if we keep Kesler and get some depth, a new coach may be all we need to reach the playoffs again. No we cannot compete with the Kings and Ducks, but the Sharks are about to blow up their team so we might fare better against them, and we've had St. Louis, Chicago and Colorado's number for a couple of years now despite them being miles ahead of us in the standings. That's really only 2 teams (Minnesota has started owning us of late too though) that we struggle against.

I believe Torts drove this team into the ground, and that the Sedins and Kesler are still world-class players. They're still capable of 20-30 goals and 70 point seasons which is more than the Ranger's top players scored and all we really need.

This team has depth coming up through the ranks as well. We've still got Higgins, Burrows, Hansen, Booth and Santorelli who are all capable of 15-20 goals which is what you need from middle-6 players. Richardson and Matthias can quite comfortably score 10 goals as very solid and physical 4th liners. Now we've got Kassian and Jensen coming up who can score 15 easily, and may break-out to become 20-30 goal scorers next season as they're definately poised to do so but we'd need to be lucky and manage them properly.

As for our defence we've still got one of the best top-4 in the NHL. Last season was a shocker, but up until the half way point we had the best PK in the league and a top-5 defence and goals against. Sure they all had down seasons offensively, but this defensive squad is still solid and still young enough to contribute.

Now looking at young guys who can come in, we've got Horvat and Shinkaruk who are most likely NHL ready. Shinkaruk was the last player to get cut from camp last season so you know these 2 guys are ready. Gaunce, Cassels and Lain are much more of a stretch. Corrado and Stanton played admirably and would be great as a 6/7 defenceman. And then there's our #6 pick.

Our only glaring hole right now is in net - Lack simply cannot play 60-70 games and I wouldn't trust Markstrom to play well with more than 15-20 games. Based on that, we're only a couple of UFA signings or one trade and some call-ups away from playoff hockey UNDER THE RIGHT COACH.

I would suggest - sign Hiller to a 4M deal and have him play in front of Lack. If we buy-out Booth, try and go for Vbrata who can bring some much needed speed and skill into our powerforward-heavy lineup.

Sedin - Sedin - Kassian

Jensen - Kesler - Vbrata

Higgins - Santorelli - Hansen

Burrows - Richardson - Matthias

Horvat

Edler - Tanev

Hamhuis - Bieksa

Garrison - Stanton

Weber/Corrado

Hiller

Lack

Under a good coach like Bylsma or Desjardins, that team makes the playoffs maybe 7 or 8 times out of 10. The only reason it doesn't is if our depth players really struggle to score, but all they're really needed to score is around 15 goals +/- 5 which isn't that much of an ask. If we focus on our strengths (defense) and have younger guys (Jensen, Kassian) playing more important minutes, there's no reason we can't compete next season. Tortorella brought everyone's numbers down in the second half of the season, but up until Christmas we had a firm grip on the 1st wild card spot and challenged the big top-3.

 

Looking at our division, you're right, SJ will likely be taking a step back, even the Ducks, they have two superstars, but after that it's an okay team, their d is not great by any means, I would take our top 6 over their's. They have a lot of young guys but not studs like Kreider, Tofolli. Smith-Pelly looks good, but Palmieri is small, Rackell is projected to be a 3rd line center, Etem's stock has fallen, Linholm is good but very young still, Fowler is too small, Silfverberg hasn't shown much. CGY and EDM are rebuilding, PHX will be status quo.

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Looking at our division, you're right, SJ will likely be taking a step back, even the Ducks, they have two superstars, but after that it's an okay team, their d is not great by any means, I would take our top 6 over their's. They have a lot of young guys but not studs like Kreider, Tofolli. Smith-Pelly looks good, but Palmieri is small, Rackell is projected to be a 3rd line center, Etem's stock has fallen, Linholm is good but very young still, Fowler is too small, Silfverberg hasn't shown much. CGY and EDM are rebuilding, PHX will be status quo.

No I meant that Anaheim and the Kings are going to be absolute powerhouses next season - the two teams we CANNOT contend with. The Sharks have good young guys like Couture and Pavelski stepping into bigger roles so I expect their team to change a lot, which might bode well for us seeing as we've struggled to contain their current lineup.

We (and just about every other team in the West) will continue to get ragdolled around by Anaheim, L.A and San Jose (depending on how their rebuild goes), but if we can squeeze maybe 5 wins out of the 16 we play against those teams, we can make up for that deficit with our VERY strong play against Chicago (we've dominated them these last 2 seasons compared to how other teams have fared against them) and St. Louis - we had a winning record against these two even last year.

This Canucks team doesn't have to blow it up just yet, but if it wants to start a rebuild then it might as well go for it now because we aren't going to contend in the playoffs next year. We could definately challenge for a 3rd spot in the division or at least a wild card position, but we'd get our asses handed to us in a 7 game series against LA or Anaheim. Chicago, St. Louis and Colorado are all quite defeatable from a Vancouver standpoint but we'd eventually have to play a team in our own division on the way to the Cup.

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Making it to the Stanley cup finals once in 20 years doesn't make you elite. The Canucks were never elite. Upper echelon maybe. Elite, never

One game away from winning the Stanley cup? Two consecutive President's Trophies? Multiple trophy-winning players? Five straight division titles? Sure we were elite. We were top contenders for the cups for several years in a row; that's elite status.

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The Canucks ascendancy is strictly tied to their ability to move the stale core pieces out of here for legit, young talent....and soon. But if they're not mostly gone in the next 2 seasons, the task to be a real contender goes up exponentially.

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if they make the right moves it might not need to take long.

to fla: ryan kesler, jason garrison, 6th overall, 36th overall

to van: nick bjugstad, erik gudbranson (rfa), 1st overall

to ott: kevin bieksa, jannik hansen, jordan schroeder (rfa), jacob markstrom

to van: chris neil, patrick wiercioch, craig anderson, matt puempel

compliance buyout: david booth

draft: sam reinhart (1st overall)

sign: jarome iginla (2 years x $6M aav including incentives)

sign: dan boyle (2 years x $6M aav including incentives)

sign: chris tanev (6 years x $3.75M aav)

sign: zack kassian (2 years x $1.75M aav)

sign: erik gudbranson (2 years x 2M aav)

sign: zac dalpe (1 year x $650K aav)

d. sedin h. sedin iginla

reinhart bjugstad kassian

higgins horvat burrows

matthias richardson neil

sestito dalpe

edler boyle

hamhuis tanev

wiercioch gudbranson

stanton corrado

lack

anderson

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