Jake Virtanen | #18 | RW

[Kanukfanatic]

5 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Jamie benn put up 41 points as a 20 year old, at 21 he had 56 points in 69 games.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/bennja01.html

 

 

Evander Kane at 20 had 30 goals and 57 points in 74 games.

Jerome Iginla at 19 had 50 points

Brady Tkachuk at 19 had 45 points in 71 games

Milan Lucic at 20 had 42 points in 72 games,

Alex Tuch who's the same age as VIrtanen just finished putting up 52 points in 74 games.

Chris Kreider at 22 had 37 points in 66 games,

Boone Jenner at 22 had 49 points in 82 games

Dustin Brown at 22 had 46 points in 81 games

Todd Bertuzzi at 20 had 39 points in 76 games

Brandon Dubinsky at 21 had 40 points in 82 games

 

Rob knows he's full of BS on this. PWF do not take longer to develop than any other type of skillsets,  people pulling the odd late bloomer doesn't make it the norm it can be done with any position.  

 

 

 

 

 

Agreed. I am not sure why some posters like to pull the old PWF take longer narrative. It has been shown again and again to be false.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

5 hours ago, Dazzle said:

Part of their success is/was inevitably dependent on the team that they are playing on as well.

 

Some names that stick out were Iginla (when Calgary was competitive), Lucic (Boston) and Todd Bertuzzi (right place/right time, but even he didn't blossom right away). Brady Tkachuk is an exception to the list I provided, which arguably could be explained that he had more ice time. He ranked 5th on an OTT team, playing with Mark Stone (who's showing that he is an incredible talent). It's not to take away from Tkachuk's skill and work, but there are more factors at play that influence not only how PWF performs but all other positions too.

That’s the point. I’m not stating jake can’t breakout some day, just debunking the old age myth that PWF take longer to develop. Players develop at different ages regardless of there position.

 

My reply last time rob posted this provided a bunch of examples of small skill players that didn’t break out until after 25. I’m sure I can come up with a list of goalies, offensive dmen, playmaking centers, scoring wingers etc.....it has zero to do with their skill set and everything to do with how each individual develops on there own path.   

[Rob_Zepp]

16 hours ago, Sugar baby watermelon said:

Just looking at Tom Wilsons transition since he entered the NHL, in his age 22 year he had 7g/12a over a full season.  He had already been in the league prior for 3 seasons w/similar results w/the exception of his 2nd year where he spent 2 games in the AHL and had an injury w/missed time.  Jake is 22yrs old and had 15g/10a in 70 games played.  Wilson started being more productive at age 23 two seasons ago with 14g/21a followed by 22g/18a this last season.  Wilson has been in the league for 6 years now and no one is really questioning him on the ice except his dirty hits lol.  I am hoping we hold onto Jake and he gets a 2 year show-me deal and see what kind of damage he can do in the next 2 years.

Tom Wilson had 7 goals combined over his first two full NHL seasons (149 games played), and didn't score more than 14 until after he was 24.    I doubt there is a team in the NHL that would not put Tom Wilson into their lineup in a heartbeat now.

 

I don't think Jake is as wired to be "truculent" as Wilson is but I also think Jake has better offensive upside and is also a far better skater.   I think if Jake understood how intimidating he can be in a straighter line towards the net AND if given better linemates (which will occur as the team continues to improve), I can see Jake's production bottom line improving and perhaps quite considerably.   It is certainly not a lock that Jake Virtanen becomes a top six dominant winger in the NHL but I still think those who have said "no way" at his age and his progression are simply ignoring his toolset AND precedence set by a number of other bigger guys who simply took longer to figure the pro game out.    

 

Ultimately I think the biggest error made in Jake's development was to have him in the NHL his first season AND to have him in the NHL with a coach that clearly was more interested in overall team results than in player development (can't fault Willie for it, but it certainly didn't help Virtanen).   If Virtanen has spent a full year, and even two, in the AHL with Green PRIOR to any time in the NHL, the noisy fringe of the fanbase being what they can be would have likely been very impatient and cried "bust" and "crap pick" and all the other silly things they tend to do but the Canucks and Virtanen may now be the beneficiaries of that development path and perhaps this past season would have been where next season will be for him (which I sincerely believe will be another solid step in the right direction). 

[Rob_Zepp]

2 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

That’s the point. I’m not stating jake can’t breakout some day, just debunking the old age myth that PWF take longer to develop. Players develop at different ages regardless of there position.

 

My reply last time rob posted this provided a bunch of examples of small skill players that didn’t break out until after 25. I’m sure I can come up with a list of goalies, offensive dmen, playmaking centers, scoring wingers etc.....it has zero to do with their skill set and everything to do with how each individual develops on there own path.   

Goalies are typically the latest of all FTG.    I still will agree to disagree with you.   The database I am using has players by position and type of player in that position and the players that one can reasonably call "power forwards" over the past 20 years tend to develop to their "peak/plateau" roughly 1.5 to 2 seasons after smaller forwards.    There are exceptions to all of this and the R2 value is low and the scatter is high BUT the trend is what it is.    There has been lots of chatter/debate as to why these trends and most agree that goalies is simply due to the nature of the game and that in the couple of decades, changes in the game at the NHL level have outpaced changes in development leagues to the point where goalies almost have to relearn their craft in terms of what will lead to success.   For power forwards - all sorts of theories.....none are totally right nor wrong.   My personal view is some guys grow up being a man among boys and shortcuts in the brain happen and all of a sudden everyone is bigger and stronger and things you could "cheat" and do you have to relearn whereas a smaller guy has figured out how to work in heavy going and getting to the NHL is simply more of the same, just a bit faster.    

 

No question there are the Marty St. Louis examples and he is a great example of a late blooming smaller guy.   They certainly exist too.    

 

Cheers.   

[Rob_Zepp]

6 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Agreed. I am not sure why some posters like to pull the old PWF take longer narrative. It has been shown again and again to be false.

Uh, no it hasn't.   People like to post the list of players that make their case (I do the same).   HOWEVER, you take all the NHL players over the past 20 years and group by position and player type, there are trends.    You can either believe those statistical trends or you can choose not do.   The trends and stats don't really care about what any of us think about them.    Those stats show that players like Virtanen take, on average and IF they develop (many don't), about 1.5 to 2 full seasons longer than players like, for easy example, Mitch Marner.    The statistical scatter is great and there are lots of outliers but the general trends exist no matter how many times (many it seems) people want to talk about them in the positive, negative or otherwise.

[Dazzle]

3 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

That’s the point. I’m not stating jake can’t breakout some day, just debunking the old age myth that PWF take longer to develop. Players develop at different ages regardless of there position.

 

My reply last time rob posted this provided a bunch of examples of small skill players that didn’t break out until after 25. I’m sure I can come up with a list of goalies, offensive dmen, playmaking centers, scoring wingers etc.....it has zero to do with their skill set and everything to do with how each individual develops on there own path.   

But some positions are harder to learn. The nuances for example of the centre position normally takes a long time to master - and being a winger is considerably easier. I would expect that being a PWF may be part of this discussion - knowing when to be aggressive and when not to be. Virtanen shows great speed, but he needs to coordinate this with his physicality.

 

Of course we'll find plenty of examples that will challenge the above statements. Crosby, Pettersson etc. It's an exception rather than the norm.

 

I think your point and Rob's point could still be both valid, from this angle.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Dazzle

[PhillipBlunt]

Maybe Benning will trade Eriksson to Edmonton so that Lucic can come to Vancouver and show Jake how it's done.....

[ForsbergTheGreat]

30 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Tom Wilson had 7 goals combined over his first two full NHL seasons (149 games played), and didn't score more than 14 until after he was 24.    I doubt there is a team in the NHL that would not put Tom Wilson into their lineup in a heartbeat now.

 

Martin St. Louis had a career total of 4 goals up until he was 25, he’s a hall of gamer. Posting a few outliers does not make it the norm. 

 

 

Quote

I don't think Jake is as wired to be "truculent" as Wilson is but I also think Jake has better offensive upside and is also a far better skater.   I think if Jake understood how intimidating he can be in a straighter line towards the net AND if given better linemates (which will occur as the team continues to improve),

 

Wilson constantly plays on the edge. Mostly because he’s a the meat head type dragging his club and doesn’t know where the line is. (And that’s not to be taken negative as he’s extremely effective at what he does). But jake doesn’t have that same level in him. His intensity level isn’t always on high. That’s not to say jake can’t be more productive, since I think he can, but it really comes down to jake as an individual building confidence and really has zero to do with his style of play being slower at developing. 

 

 

Quote

 

I can see Jake's production bottom line improving and perhaps quite considerably.   It is certainly not a lock that Jake Virtanen becomes a top six dominant winger in the NHL but I still think those who have said "no way" at his age and his progression are simply ignoring his toolset AND precedence set by a number of other bigger guys who simply took longer to figure the pro game out.    

 

But thats simply not true. Thats a myth myth that I have proven to be false over and over. If you are to split PWF’s into 3 groups 

 

A )never panned out

b ) started producing at the age of 24+

c ) started producing prior to turning 24. 

 

B would be a small blimp compared to A & C.  Again using the odd outlier doesn’t make it a precedent. Every single skillset has that outlier at the same rate as PWF. This is a fact backed up by numbers not opinion biased which is where the myth started from 

 

1 hour ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Goalies are typically the latest of all FTG.    I still will agree to disagree with you.   The database I am using has players by position and type of player in that position and the players that one can reasonably call "power forwards" over the past 20 years tend to develop to their "peak/plateau" roughly 1.5 to 2 seasons after smaller forwards. 

I’m going to call BS. Im sorry but your data base should be thrown in the trash. You just finished quoting Simmonds and Jamie Benn as late bloomers. A simple look up at them shows how incorrect that is. Also peak and plateau mean completely different things than simply breaking out. So maybe that’s where you misunderstanding comes from.

 

 

1 hour ago, Rob_Zepp said:

There has been lots of chatter/debate as to why these trends and most agree that goalies is simply due to the nature of the game and that in the couple of decades, changes in the game at the NHL level have outpaced changes in development leagues to the point where goalies almost have to relearn their craft in terms of what will lead to success.   

Chatter. It’s not rocket science. Goalies need high end mental strength, very few teens have that, it grows with maturity which is why they don’t jump into the league at younger ages. Also add in limited number of positions and turnover.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Rob_Zepp said:

For power forwards - all sorts of theories.....none are totally right nor wrong.   My personal view is some guys grow up being a man among boys and shortcuts in the brain happen and all of a sudden everyone is bigger and stronger and things you could "cheat" and do you have to relearn whereas a smaller guy has figured out how to work in heavy going and getting to the NHL is simply more of the same, just a bit faster.    

 

Again your buying into a myth that factually proven false. There are more power forwards that break out prior to 24 than there are that take longer. Once you actually start looking into accurate data you will start to understand. Until then your more than welcome to by into a theory that’s been debunked over and over. 

 

 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

1 hour ago, Dazzle said:

But some positions are harder to learn. The nuances for example of the centre position normally takes a long time to master - and being a winger is considerably easier. I would expect that being a PWF may be part of this discussion - knowing when to be aggressive and when not to be. Virtanen shows great speed, but he needs to coordinate this with his physicality.

 

I agree that some positions take longer to learn but PWF isn’t one of them. They already have the physical tools and don’t require high hockey sense to be effective at their role. There’s a reason why players more physically developed make the NHL quicker than those who aren’t.  

 

In order for something to be valid, data would need to back it up, you need evidence to support it and that’s what I’m debunking.

 

The problem I see is people try to use those outliers as reasoning on why jake “could” become more. Don’t trade jake he could become the next Tom Wilson or johan franzen. 

 

But that same logic could be used for every type of skill set. Don’t give up on Sven he could be the next naslund, karlsson or Oates. Don’t give up on Schroeder. He could have been st.louis, gourde, Atkinson. Don’t give up on gaunce. Beagle didn’t play full time till he was 27.....etc. 

 

 

PWF are not more the norm than any other positions. Development is based on the individual. If it was truly the norm you wouldn’t have higher percent of PWF’s who developed prior to 24 than after. 

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by ForsbergTheGreat

[RowdyCanuck]

20 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said:

Agreed. I am not sure why some posters like to pull the old PWF take longer narrative. It has been shown again and again to be false.

 The person you responded to listed Evander Kane who had Brian Little as his center man in his first year, iirc. He also had Byfuglien and Ladd as backup so he could be as aggressive as he wanted. 

 

 Someone mentioned Simmonds and Brown, who both had better centerman that Sutter on their line. Unlike Virtanten, they were encouraged to play their game.

 

 He's a play driver capable of carrying a line and a lack of depth on the team is why he's on the third line. Green is trying to spread the talent available to him across four lines and he doesn't have much to work with.

 

Edited June 8, 2019 by RowdyCanuck

[Hairy Kneel]

Jake should be on a energy line with Motte and Roussel. Causing nothing but headaches for the opposition.

[Phat Fingers]

 

 

Assuming Baer is healthy, we would be starting the season with a top 6 of Baer, EP40, Boeser, Pearson, Horvat and 1 open spot.  

 

JV should be pushing for the spot on Bo's wing, a 2nd line wing is not beyond his abilities.  We will likely sign a player to fill in the top 6 roll, but Baer is a questionable player injury wise.  Goldy isnt top 6 material at this point.  

 

JV produced well for his deployment last year.  I think he can improve.  

 

 

[Dazzle]

On 6/7/2019 at 10:00 AM, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

I agree that some positions take longer to learn but PWF isn’t one of them. They already have the physical tools and don’t require high hockey sense to be effective at their role. There’s a reason why players more physically developed make the NHL quicker than those who aren’t.  

 

In order for something to be valid, data would need to back it up, you need evidence to support it and that’s what I’m debunking.

 

The problem I see is people try to use those outliers as reasoning on why jake “could” become more. Don’t trade jake he could become the next Tom Wilson or johan franzen. 

 

But that same logic could be used for every type of skill set. Don’t give up on Sven he could be the next naslund, karlsson or Oates. Don’t give up on Schroeder. He could have been st.louis, gourde, Atkinson. Don’t give up on gaunce. Beagle didn’t play full time till he was 27.....etc. 

 

 

PWF are not more the norm than any other positions. Development is based on the individual. If it was truly the norm you wouldn’t have higher percent of PWF’s who developed prior to 24 than after. 

 

It depends on what you mean by "effective" at their role.

 

Arguably, Virtanen, if you don't look at where he was picked, IS in fact effective at his role.

 

1) Can be put up and down the lineup with varying degrees of success. Has shown that he can score (unlike Gaunce).

2) Is physical (but you could argue he could be more aggressive)

3) Has shown that he is not a liability in all zones - for example, has more takeaways than giveaways. Also doesn't often take dumb penalties.

 

That in itself shows versatility.

 

Now, if we were to go with the narrative that Virtanen doesn't have good hockey sense (no hockey IQ), why isn't he more successful at the PWF? You guys make it seem like any big guy can succeed at being a PWF, when clearly that isn't the case.

 

I do think that Virtanen will have a breakout season this year. He's already improved his numbers from last year, so he is definitely not regressing. He's going to make you look silly next year.

 

 

[Phat Fingers]

59 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

It depends on what you mean by "effective" at their role.

 

Arguably, Virtanen, if you don't look at where he was picked, IS in fact effective at his role.

 

1) Can be put up and down the lineup with varying degrees of success. Has shown that he can score (unlike Gaunce).

2) Is physical (but you could argue he could be more aggressive)

3) Has shown that he is not a liability in all zones - for example, has more takeaways than giveaways. Also doesn't often take dumb penalties.

 

That in itself shows versatility.

 

Now, if we were to go with the narrative that Virtanen doesn't have good hockey sense (no hockey IQ), why isn't he more successful at the PWF? You guys make it seem like any big guy can succeed at being a PWF, when clearly that isn't the case.

 

I do think that Virtanen will have a breakout season this year. He's already improved his numbers from last year, so he is definitely not regressing. He's going to make you look silly next year.

 

 

He is poised to break thru this year.  It will all depend on his off season.  He has to come into camp 100% ready physically and mentally.  The spots are there for the taking atm.  He better grab one while he can.  

[Rob_Zepp]

On 6/7/2019 at 12:29 PM, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

Martin St. Louis had a career total of 4 goals up until he was 25, he’s a hall of gamer. Posting a few outliers does not make it the norm. 

 

 

 

Wilson constantly plays on the edge. Mostly because he’s a the meat head type dragging his club and doesn’t know where the line is. (And that’s not to be taken negative as he’s extremely effective at what he does). But jake doesn’t have that same level in him. His intensity level isn’t always on high. That’s not to say jake can’t be more productive, since I think he can, but it really comes down to jake as an individual building confidence and really has zero to do with his style of play being slower at developing. 

 

 

 

But thats simply not true. Thats a myth myth that I have proven to be false over and over. If you are to split PWF’s into 3 groups 

 

A )never panned out

b ) started producing at the age of 24+

c ) started producing prior to turning 24. 

 

B would be a small blimp compared to A & C.  Again using the odd outlier doesn’t make it a precedent. Every single skillset has that outlier at the same rate as PWF. This is a fact backed up by numbers not opinion biased which is where the myth started from 

 

I’m going to call BS. Im sorry but your data base should be thrown in the trash. You just finished quoting Simmonds and Jamie Benn as late bloomers. A simple look up at them shows how incorrect that is. Also peak and plateau mean completely different things than simply breaking out. So maybe that’s where you misunderstanding comes from.

 

 

Chatter. It’s not rocket science. Goalies need high end mental strength, very few teens have that, it grows with maturity which is why they don’t jump into the league at younger ages. Also add in limited number of positions and turnover.  

 

 

 

Again your buying into a myth that factually proven false. There are more power forwards that break out prior to 24 than there are that take longer. Once you actually start looking into accurate data you will start to understand. Until then your more than welcome to by into a theory that’s been debunked over and over. 

 

 

Well, database I have access to has roughly 8,000 players across seven professional leagues over about 20 years (on average...longer for NHL, shorter for others)....always happy to use a better one if you have it.

[73 Percent]

1 hour ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Well, database I have access to has roughly 8,000 players across seven professional leagues over about 20 years (on average...longer for NHL, shorter for others)....always happy to use a better one if you have it.

Hockey DB sucka

[GoldenAlien]

Class act by Jake. 

 

[-AJ-]

2 hours ago, GoldenAlien said:

Class act by Jake. 

 

This is a really substantial donation by Jake, but it probably won't get the attention it deserves. Percentage-wise of his salary, this is a larger donation than what the twins gave to the hospital. Awesome to see that Jake is following suite with Bo, Brock, and Petey.

[Putgolzin]

3 hours ago, -AJ- said:

This is a really substantial donation by Jake, but it probably won't get the attention it deserves. Percentage-wise of his salary, this is a larger donation than what the twins gave to the hospital. Awesome to see that Jake is following suite with Bo, Brock, and Petey.

That’s a massive donation on a percentage basis!

Nice work Tuna.

Also, you’d have to figure in a couple hundred bucks for the diver Jake hired to hook the fish on.

[dpn1]

I think this is one of Jake's gifts. I am impressed.  He seems like a goodhearted guy.  Good on ya' Jake!

Edited June 12, 2019 by dpn1