-AJ- Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: This is a prime example of the error in using the simplified logic 31 multiplied by X equals YXZ. There’s an enormous amount of important criteria that is exclude when determining what defines a first line forward. There’s so much more to what defines a first line forward than simply, goals, points, points per 60, points/gp and even ozone starts. None of those data points are going to give you black and white answer and what you end up with is a very grey statistic that people try to present as fact. The biggest flaw is believing that the NHL has 93 first liners. Just because there’s that many vacancies in the league doesn’t mean there’s that many players to fill that hole. Teams that don’t have the players to fill that role are often forced to put someone in a role they are not suited for. Just as New Jersey’s goaltending when considering who there #1 goalie is. Some teams have 4-6 players that would be valued as a first liner around the league, some teams might be lucky to have one player. 1st through 4th line positioning is not static, players move up and down the roster throughout the entire year, on every team. I strongly agree with the rest of your thinking, but I'm not sure I follow you on this point. I can get behind there being a lot more than one or two factors in determining who's a 1st liner and who's not, but I'm not sure I understand the logic of there being more or less than 93 1st line forwards. If we don't use the simple 31x3 metric, then what do we use as a benchmark for a 1st liner? I could argue that one needs 0.80 points-per-game to be a first liner, but one could easily counter with "why 0.80?". As I said, I'm totally on board with many many criteria (which is why I'm careful to at least only use points-per-game to show where players are offensively), but I'm not sure where you place the benchmark if not at 93 forwards. I also fully agree that teams like New Jersey might not have any starting goaltenders, but other teams may have two. Tampa Bay certainly has more than three first-line quality forwards. The question is, by what measuring stick do we measure Tampa's forwards to determine this? Certainly we may use many different metrics by which to measure them, but where is that dividing line between a first liner and a second liner and how do we pick that particular line? Sure, the mark changes throughout the season and is fluid, no doubt, but that doesn't necessarily mean that's not real. I hope that made sense, as I find it somewhat difficult to express what I'm thinking with this. P.S. I love these kind of nitpicky analytical conversations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
48MPHSlapShot Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 We can dive into analytics as much as we want to, but when you go deep enough you start to see discrepancies that are so razor thin that even a slight alteration to a lineup, a slight alteration to the player's fitness level or headspace, a change in coaching direction, etc etc etc...can have a pretty drastic effect. While certainly not as exact as smaller, analytical statistics, I still think that overall production is still the best indicator of how a player is doing, as it takes all of these analytical statistics into consideration, but is still on a general enough to compensate for slight discrepancies here and there. One also has to look at how well a player is passing the good old fashioned eye test. The main point of contention with Virtanen for years now has been his hockey IQ. "He has all the tools, but doesn't have the toolbox". It's a phrase we've heard a thousand times, especially as it pertains to Virtanen, and it wasn't without merit. He's always been great off the rush, but looked a bit lost when it came to half-court offense. When I watch him now, I'm noticing a pretty drastic change in that regard. He seems to be predicting where the play is going to go at a higher level than in years past. He's pushing the play forward as opposed to simply reacting to the play, and I think this is the biggest difference in his game right now. He recently said in an interview that he's been watching and studying EP and how he plays the game, and as we all know EP probably has one of the highest hockey IQs in the entire league. Even if it's superficial and he's merely mimicking some of EPs tendencies, it's having a tangible effect imo, and it's one of the ways that an addition to the lineup can have a significant effect on the players within that lineup. Just thought it was worth mentioning. As far as the arguments in this thread go, as with most heated debates, the answer I feel lies somewhere in the middle. He was never the bust that some here made him out to be, but with that said, he's probably never going to be on the level that a Nylander or Ehlers are either. In a redraft, both those players are gone well before Jake would be. That still doesn't mean Jake isn't a valuable part of the team and it doesn't mean he wasn't a good pick. It just means that he wasn't 'the best pick', and you know what? He doesn't need to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said: It’s frustrating to see the critical thinking of the game taken out. This may be the single most ironic comment I have seen in any on-line post of any nature in a long while considering the source. Carry on. Will continue to disagree with you and enjoy doing so but to know YOU find a lack of critical thinking frustrating.....makes me think you find life VERY frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanukfanatic Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 10 hours ago, 73 Percent said: Going around making friends I see. Day 2... Big surprise.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, The 5th Line said: "He's exceeding my expectations" Take it or leave it I find it ironic that a fan of the Big E and a meat and potatoes fan would prefer the Princes at 7 million to Jake at 1 million. Clearly Jake is one of the best deals in the league for what he provides to winning, while the Princess is not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirkSave Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, The 5th Line said: any such princess I hope Megan moves to BC! Prince Harry can go fly a kite at English Bay. Jake is playing like royalty, is what I'm getting at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeneedLumme Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, -AJ- said: I think you'll find that as ATOI goes down points per minute will overinflate. This is likely because players who play less minutes most often play against weaker competition. In addition, because they play fewer minutes, they're also fresher when they do play, so it's easier for them to play well. Increase Jake's minutes and I nearly promise you his points per minute goes down. I imagine that yes, as his time on ice increases, his points per 60 will likely drop some. But I would expect his points per game to increase. He has been getting more icetime lately and playing further up the lineup against stronger competition, and I don't really see his productivity dropping, since the better competition goes hand in hand with better, more productive linemates. Edited January 22, 2020 by WeneedLumme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancaster Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Consistency and doing the little things right has always been items that hinders his growth. I've always been critical of him, hopefully he can keep up this pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-Dizzle Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 9 hours ago, The 5th Line said: "He's exceeding my expectations" Take it or leave it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12 hours ago, The 5th Line said: Nice, you remember my old profile picture but you don't remember the fact that I never said such thing about any such princess. Big E was a great player, who changed how the game was played. One of my favourites to watch. Always will associate you with him. Glad you’re coming around to JV maturing into the player we expected, when we drafted him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsbergTheGreat Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 16 hours ago, -AJ- said: I strongly agree with the rest of your thinking, but I'm not sure I follow you on this point. I can get behind there being a lot more than one or two factors in determining who's a 1st liner and who's not, but I'm not sure I understand the logic of there being more or less than 93 1st line forwards. If we don't use the simple 31x3 metric, then what do we use as a benchmark for a 1st liner? I could argue that one needs 0.80 points-per-game to be a first liner, but one could easily counter with "why 0.80?". As I said, I'm totally on board with many many criteria (which is why I'm careful to at least only use points-per-game to show where players are offensively), but I'm not sure where you place the benchmark if not at 93 forwards. I also fully agree that teams like New Jersey might not have any starting goaltenders, but other teams may have two. Tampa Bay certainly has more than three first-line quality forwards. The question is, by what measuring stick do we measure Tampa's forwards to determine this? Certainly we may use many different metrics by which to measure them, but where is that dividing line between a first liner and a second liner and how do we pick that particular line? Sure, the mark changes throughout the season and is fluid, no doubt, but that doesn't necessarily mean that's not real. I hope that made sense, as I find it somewhat difficult to express what I'm thinking with this. See but what you are doing in confusing total job vacancy with quality and setting that as the benchmark. Just because a team is forced to put a player in that position doesn’t mean that player has the qualification to properly fill that role. And because of this we see a constant rotation of players moving up and down the line up. Where you play on a roster is not static. How many teams do you think can clearly define who there 3 first line players are? If teams can’t do that, it’s impossible to assign arbitrary number for a benchmark. Go back to the goalie example. You admit that Blackwood does not have the qualifications to be considered a number one goalie despite his team forcing him into that position. You rebuttal that with, but some teams have two #1 goalies (which I mostly disagree with as many of those tandem goalies have proven they aren’t capable of taking on the load of a full time number one aka Talbot). So if some teams have two #1 goalies and some teams have none will the sum magically balance to the bench mark number you set of 31? Try it out and list all 31 goalies you believe are #1 guys, you’ll start to see that once you get passed 20 the quality gap starts to dramatically drop, thus devaluing the value of what most believe defines a #1 goalie. How do you bench mark it? Well again consider this, if we can accept the position a player plays throughout the year is fluid, then you have to accept the benchmark also has to be fluid. It’s a floating number, one year we might only have 50 qualified first line players, another year there might be 80. if you set the benchmark at a static number, then every year your have to adjust the value of what qualifies a person as a 1st line player. Doing that takes away any meaning behind the claim and devalues the true first line players around the league. When you start lumping players like Kassian into a grouping with guys like Boeser, you should start to immediately see the flaw in the logic. So how do you define a 1stline player? Well you kind of already answered that when you used the Tampa bay example, Market value. How would majority of other teams value that player on their roster? How many teams would use Blackwood as there number 1 goalie? Outside of New Jersey probably none. How many teams would use McDavid as a first line player? Every team. Yes two extremes but when you start to consider market value, you can start to define all the criteria, and add in the needed context outside of the simplified “did player achieve XYZ p/gp” Quote P.S. I love these kind of nitpicky analytical conversations. Me as well. I think these types conversations allow people to broaden their understanding and improve ones appreciation for the sport. I thoroughly enjoy hockey and while canucks are my favorite team it doesn’t stop me for appreciating other aspects of the game around the league. To me that makes it more meaningful and fulfilling when canucks do accomplish things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 16 hours ago, Kanukfanatic said: Big surprise.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 It is often of interest when a player is close to emerging (I think Jake is still one season away from fully emerging) to look back on his projection while he was still an undrafted prospect. Ben is an engaging guy and knows prospects well without ever being too far wrong or ever over hyping anyone from my experience. Here is an article on Jake he put together in 2014. Of note for those who like to continue the false narrative, Ben emphasizes Jake's "good hockey sense". I find it interesting that if you flash forward six years how Ben talks about his emergence in the WHL has a familiar ring to how he is emerging in the NHL. Would be really nice if 45 goal WHL Jake became 25-30 goal NHL Jake along with the strong D play and general physical nature he possesses. Top Shelf Prospects 2014 - Jake Virtanen 2014 NHL Draft Profile #11: Jake Virtanen By Ben Kerr - April 12, 2014 1 Welcome back to Top Shelf Prospects, the daily column that brings you the next crop of professional hockey players. Each day I will bring you a new player profile or topical article in the lead-up to the 2014 NHL Draft. Be sure to bookmark the site, follow me on Twitter, and spread the word for the site that will bring you analytical and critical profiles and scouting reports! Last Word On Sports is your new headquarters for everything “Draft”! For a Complete Listing of all our 2014 Draft Articles Click here. Jake Virtanen was the first overall pick in the 2011 WHL Draft. At 16 he had a decent season for the Hitmen with 34 points in 62 games. This season he really came on with 45 goals and 71 points in 71 games, and helping the Hitmen to a second place finish in the WHL’s Eastern Conference. Unfortunately the team was upset in six games to the Kootenay Ice in the first round of the playoffs. Virtanen really began to show his promise on the international stage with a very impressive performance at the World Under-17 Hockey Challenge in 2013 when he scored 5 goals in 5 games for Team Pacific. He also won a gold medal last summer at the Ivan Hlinka tournament representing Team Canada. Virtanen should be a part of Canada’s U18 team for the World Championships coming up next week in Finland. Jake Virtanen Right Wing — shoots Right Born Aug 17 1996 — Abbotsford, BC Height 6.01 — Weight 210 [185 cm/95 kg] Jake Virtanen is a power forward prospect who never hesitates to get involved physically. He loves to hit, and be involved in battles along the boards. Virtanen takes the puck to the net at every opportunity. He has the creative stickhandling and good agility to beat a defender with slick moves, but is also willing to go right through them if necessary to get to the net. Virtanen is a pure goal scorer who can score in tight with soft hands, and also has an excellent shot with big time power, great accuracy and a tremendously quick release that fools goaltenders. Virtanen has taken his game to another level of late, and has shown flashes of true dominance in the WHL. He also has good hockey sense and the ability to get open and elude defenders. Virtanen is more of a goal scorer than a playmaker, but he does have decent passing skills and vision as well. An outstanding skater, with impressive speed on the wing, Virtanen has the ability to take a defender wide before cutting back to the net. He was the fastest skater at the CHL top prospects game skills competition in both forwards and backwards skating. He has great acceleration, and his long and powerful stride gives him good balance and allows him to fight through hooks, holds, and other checks. Virtanen has decent defensive skills, he back checks hard, and is willing to be physical in all three zones. He is also willing to block shots and generally do whatever is necessary to help his team win games. He could stand to improve on his discipline though, as he can sometimes get out of position as he is looking for the big hit. Virtanen is not afraid to drop the gloves and is a good fighter. He is willing to defend teammates, or himself, against all comers. In terms of style, Virtanen is reminiscent of Jarome Iginla in his prime. This isn’t to say he has that level of talent, just that the style is similar. In terms of potential, the sky is the limit. If developed properly, Jake Virtanen has the skills necessary to be a top six power forward at the NHL level. He’s the total package, and the combination of size, skill, and speed is extremely intriguing. Here are some highlights of Jake Virtanen: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 So Jake is going to need a contract at the end of the season.. his breakout year is coming at a great time for him. Id be wary giving him a big ticket with only 1 consistent season under his belt (assuming his play continues). We could also use as much cap flexibility as we can get. Wonder what each side are going to bring to the table as comparables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
48MPHSlapShot Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 7 hours ago, Smashian Kassian said: So Jake is going to need a contract at the end of the season.. his breakout year is coming at a great time for him. Id be wary giving him a big ticket with only 1 consistent season under his belt (assuming his play continues). We could also use as much cap flexibility as we can get. Wonder what each side are going to bring to the table as comparables. It’s difficult to know what the dollar figure will end up being, but I think both sides will be pretty OK with something like a 2 year bridge deal. Something in the ballpark of 3.5 mill per season seems reasonable to me on a short term bridge deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duodenum Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 9 hours ago, 48MPHSlapShot said: It’s difficult to know what the dollar figure will end up being, but I think both sides will be pretty OK with something like a 2 year bridge deal. Something in the ballpark of 3.5 mill per season seems reasonable to me on a short term bridge deal. Bridge deal would be best for Virtanen. Career year with a shooting percentage over 5% higher than his usual average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 11 hours ago, The 5th Line said: Rob you can look at all of the scouting reports, they all mainly focus on his skating, his shot and his power, not his hockey sense. This guys report you quoted basically just says Virtanen does everything well, even fighting... "Reminiscent of Jarome Iginla in his prime"? Wouldn't that be something Via McKeens Hockey: .. sensational ability to create time and space for himself with deceiving change of pace and bursts of acceleration .. seems to do more with his skating ability .. despite quick hands his effectiveness is diminished by his passing efficiency and play selection .. very reactive player that doesn’t seem to anticipate the game, rather responds to it .. hockey sense routinely comes into question .. wicked release and can shoot on the fly without breaking stride .. at his best when he intimidates with his speed, driving defenders on their heels and engaging in 1 on 1 situations .. still needs to adopt better structure, playing a scattered game while gravitating to and over-fixating on the puck .. improved this year defensively playing with more determination, blocking shots and being involved physically .. Virtanen has the size and skating ability to satisfy a role in the NHL however he will infuriate top players a A direct quote from the review was this "he also has good hockey sense and the ability to get open and elude defenders. " Not sure how you interpret that..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chronic.Canuck Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Duodenum said: Bridge deal would be best for Virtanen. Career year with a shooting percentage over 5% higher than his usual average. Yeah, management's almost certainly going to want to see if he can maintain and build on this before handing over a big dollar, long term deal. I'd wager something in the 2 year +/- $3m territory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Duodenum said: Bridge deal would be best for Virtanen. Career year with a shooting percentage over 5% higher than his usual average. You gotta think more like an agent. It isn't his "usual" average, that was his "former" average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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