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Thatcher Demko | #35 | G


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Seems to me like we either win games because of Demko or lose them because of him. He's either incredible, or pretty bad.

 

Obviously, these stats are going to be biased in favour of the results, but we can compare Demko vs Holtby.

 

First, the more standard case, Braden Hotlby:

 

HoltbyStats.png

 

In our wins, Hotlby is about an average goaltender, and in our losses, he plays poorly. Fairly standard I suspect.

 

Now, for contrast, see the extremes of Demko:

 

DemkoStats.png

Note how insanely dominant Demko is in his three wins. Yet despite this, when he loses, he performs even worse than Holtby, despite having a higher overall average save percentage. Holtby seems to be much more consistent, but just not very good. Demko seems to have high highs, but also lower lows. A relatively small sample size also needs to be considered a weakness of this analysis, however.

 

All in all, it's probably fairly standard for young goaltenders, especially ones just starting to get more games. It reminds me very much of Markstrom in his earlier years, which is, really, not a bad thing. Just have to hope that like Markstrom, he eventually learns to be more stable and consistently good.

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10 hours ago, -AJ- said:

Seems to me like we either win games because of Demko or lose them because of him. He's either incredible, or pretty bad.

 

Obviously, these stats are going to be biased in favour of the results, but we can compare Demko vs Holtby.

 

First, the more standard case, Braden Hotlby:

 

HoltbyStats.png

 

In our wins, Hotlby is about an average goaltender, and in our losses, he plays poorly. Fairly standard I suspect.

 

Now, for contrast, see the extremes of Demko:

 

DemkoStats.png

Note how insanely dominant Demko is in his three wins. Yet despite this, when he loses, he performs even worse than Holtby, despite having a higher overall average save percentage. Holtby seems to be much more consistent, but just not very good. Demko seems to have high highs, but also lower lows. A relatively small sample size also needs to be considered a weakness of this analysis, however.

 

All in all, it's probably fairly standard for young goaltenders, especially ones just starting to get more games. It reminds me very much of Markstrom in his earlier years, which is, really, not a bad thing. Just have to hope that like Markstrom, he eventually learns to be more stable and consistently good.

*Caveat that goalie stats depend highly on the team playing in front of them.

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11 hours ago, -AJ- said:

Just have to hope that like Markstrom, he eventually learns to be more stable and consistently good.

Hope he does it quicker that Markstrom, as well.

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2 hours ago, aGENT said:

*Caveat that goalie stats depend highly on the team playing in front of them.

Of course it's relevant, but both guys have largely the same team in front of them. I didn't have the patience to go through 5000 different stats to try to minimize the "team in front of them" factor, but at least save % helps eliminate the "team let a million shots on net" factor.

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33 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

Of course it's relevant, but both guys have largely the same team in front of them. I didn't have the patience to go through 5000 different stats to try to minimize the "team in front of them" factor, but at least save % helps eliminate the "team let a million shots on net" factor.

Sure. But the team in front of them has played all over the map from one game to the next (unfortunately mostly poorly) this year.

 

Event last night, the team, for the most part, played far better defensively. That said, even though shot totals were down, we still gave up basically equal scoring chances.

 

Basically what I'm saying is that, given how they're playing as a team, it's going to be difficult to glean a whole lot of value out of individual statistics.

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As I see it Demko is not playing like he did in the play-offs but more like the run he had prior to the play-off ( when Markstrom was injured ) what ever I just don't see him as a clear cut #1. We had a number 1 but let him go, primarily because of our Cap problems. Then we signed Holtby for $4.3 million  and later signed Harmonic  for $1.25 ( $4.3 + 1.25 = $5.55.  Markstrom signed in Calgary for $500K more ) Markstrom is 31 but then again Price is 33 and has a further 5 years in his contract. Some thing in this picture is just plain wrong. Benning is clinging to his draft pick like a life preserver. But put that aside what is plan B?? how are we contenders without quality goal tending. There is no chnace we can find a grade A goaltender in the next 2 years so cancel the parade route. I hope Demko proves me wrong but I can't see it. He's been under Clarkes  tutelage for a number of years now and I see no appreciable improvement. Demko is not a Markstrom, that's been clear for a long time. If Seattle wants Demko, which I question, then DiPietro comes in as #2 next season

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Demko has played quite well in the games the team won, and not so good in the ones the team lost. The way the team played in front of him has a lot to do with how he "looks".

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24 minutes ago, gurn said:

Demko has played quite well in the games the team won, and not so good in the ones the team lost. The way the team played in front of him has a lot to do with how he "looks".

This is exactly true. Also, I can't help but think people look at his stats, and say "Those numbers are brutal". And they are. But the whole team has been brutal this season for all but the Winnipeg game so of course his numbers will reflect that. Marky's stats were similarly brought down by the giveaway machine that plays in front of him as well.

 

Despite the stats, I think Demko has been average, as has Holtby. And honestly, that's not what I was hoping for but what I did expect. Until the team plays better as a whole, it's near impossible for either to get in a groove.

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54 minutes ago, gurn said:

Demko has played quite well in the games the team won, and not so good in the ones the team lost. The way the team played in front of him has a lot to do with how he "looks".

A more succinct version of my point.

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30 minutes ago, kloubek said:

This is exactly true. Also, I can't help but think people look at his stats, and say "Those numbers are brutal". And they are. But the whole team has been brutal this season for all but the Winnipeg game so of course his numbers will reflect that. Marky's stats were similarly brought down by the giveaway machine that plays in front of him as well.

 

Despite the stats, I think Demko has been average, as has Holtby. And honestly, that's not what I was hoping for but what I did expect. Until the team plays better as a whole, it's near impossible for either to get in a groove.

I think both are capable of playing at/slightly above league average. And if the team in front of them plays to their capability, that would be just fine.

 

They're not the problem with the team at the moment, as awful as their stats may look.

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1 hour ago, -AJ- said:

You're writing off Demko far too quickly. He's not playing very well so far this year, but keep in mind how young he is. Demko just turned 25 years old. When Markstrom was 25, he played almost the entire year in the AHL and played only three NHL games during that season, sporting a poor .879 save percentage. Give Demko some time.

Hey we all have an opinion about Demko, we all know it''s not working right now but yes he may get better. But my point is we were so so close to being able to sign Markstrom it becomes a bit of a joke to suggest we couldn't afford him. we were within $500K of his signing cost to Calgary. Markstrom would have been a difference maker but he's gone. Demko good or Demko bad no one has the answer to our future now. It didn't have to be that way. It might come don to this why let Markstrom walk away when we could have chosen to let Virtanen walk away. I'm not making this up do the math

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19 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

Hey we all have an opinion about Demko, we all know it''s not working right now but yes he may get better. But my point is we were so so close to being able to sign Markstrom it becomes a bit of a joke to suggest we couldn't afford him. we were within $500K of his signing cost to Calgary. Markstrom would have been a difference maker but he's gone. Demko good or Demko bad no one has the answer to our future now. It didn't have to be that way. It might come don to this why let Markstrom walk away when we could have chosen to let Virtanen walk away. I'm not making this up do the math

Just a guess, but I would think that JB would confer with the man that knows both goalies game the best.  Yep, Ian Clark.  I would also guess that Ian recommended that Demko would be the best choice for the future.  Just guessing though.B)

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45 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

Hey we all have an opinion about Demko, we all know it''s not working right now but yes he may get better. But my point is we were so so close to being able to sign Markstrom it becomes a bit of a joke to suggest we couldn't afford him. we were within $500K of his signing cost to Calgary. Markstrom would have been a difference maker but he's gone. Demko good or Demko bad no one has the answer to our future now. It didn't have to be that way. It might come don to this why let Markstrom walk away when we could have chosen to let Virtanen walk away. I'm not making this up do the math

We lost Marky because of the expansion draft, not cap space or Virtanen's cap.

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49 minutes ago, aGENT said:

We lost Marky because of the expansion draft, not cap space or Virtanen's cap.

Well we'll know come the end of the season if it was the right call. Frankly there are no other goalies of his calibre to back stop this team. I do think it strange that JB got rid of the last two Gillis players apart from Horvat, Markstrom and Tanev . Horvat better keep a watch over his shoulder:lol:  In all honesty I'd have kept Markstrom and let Virtanen go to get the Cap space. This IMO was not about the money, clearly they were within $500K of having the space, but he signed Holtby to a$4.3m + Harmonic at $1.25M and resigned Virtanen @ $2.5M. I'm betting now Markstrom will be playing in Calgary as a top goalie for the next 5 years. Here's the funny thing IMO they were worried about expansion .... but ... first you get to the dance before you start worrying about who you're taking home. This going to be a crucial moment

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3 hours ago, -AJ- said:

You're writing off Demko far too quickly. He's not playing very well so far this year, but keep in mind how young he is. Demko just turned 25 years old. When Markstrom was 25, he played almost the entire year in the AHL and played only three NHL games during that season, sporting a poor .879 save percentage. Give Demko some time.

This sounds like the Virtanen defence, he's still young. We know how that's panned out. I'm not convinced we have a handle on his future He joined Utica in 2016, best SV% is 0.913 in Utica. I hope like every one else he'll come through, but what's plan B right now he has a SV% of 0.896

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5 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

This sounds like the Virtanen defence, he's still young. We know how that's panned out. I'm not convinced we have a handle on his future He joined Utica in 2016, best SV% is 0.913 in Utica. I hope like every one else he'll come through, but what's plan B right now he has a SV% of 0.896

Demko is holding his own in a crap year with a crap coach and a big losing streak. Holtby's numbers are no better.

 

Give him a couple of years of development.  He will get it done.  I have watched him live many times from the first time he came up. Demko is going to be a legit number 1 for a long time.  When the D improves with a new coach and some player changes over the next two years,  his stats will improve.  

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9 minutes ago, fanfor42 said:

Demko is holding his own in a crap year with a crap coach and a big losing streak. Holtby's numbers are no better.

 

Give him a couple of years of development.  He will get it done.  I have watched him live many times from the first time he came up. Demko is going to be a legit number 1 for a long time.  When the D improves with a new coach and some player changes over the next two years,  his stats will improve.  

Well since he arrived I've watched every home game too, and honestly I hold my breath when the opposition enter the zone. He has to some degree cleaned up the rebounds he used to give away. But fumbled saves he's not good ( IMO ) at the second and third shot/scramble. Mean while we let likely the best in the league leave( free ) in favour of signing Holtby, Harmonic and re signing Virtanen ( soon to be gone ) it just doesn't make sense to me. It just doesn't add up, the math is all wrong

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3 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

Well since he arrived I've watched every home game too, and honestly I hold my breath when the opposition enter the zone. He has to some degree cleaned up the rebounds he used to give away. But fumbled saves he's not good ( IMO ) at the second and third shot/scramble. Mean while we let likely the best in the league leave( free ) in favour of signing Holtby, Harmonic and re signing Virtanen ( soon to be gone ) it just doesn't make sense to me. It just doesn't add up, the math is all wrong

I think you are mad that Markey was let go. That is not the same as assessing whether Demko will develop into a number one. He will.

Markstrom took to 29 to develop.  Demko is 25. He will be ready in two years when the Canucks are ready.

Benning bet his job on it. Now he may not be here to find out.  But he will be  proven right on that in the end.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Fred65 said:

This sounds like the Virtanen defence, he's still young. We know how that's panned out. I'm not convinced we have a handle on his future He joined Utica in 2016, best SV% is 0.913 in Utica. I hope like every one else he'll come through, but what's plan B right now he has a SV% of 0.896

Virtanen is a forward (well known to usually develop much quicker) and one who's played nearly 300 NHL games and is now in his 6th NHL season.


Demko is a goaltender (well known to often take until late 20s to fully develop) and one who's played 46 NHL games and is in his 4th NHL season, but only his 2nd as a regular.

 

If he doesn't work out, I imagine plan B is Dipietro.

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