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On Van's Gt'ing, mid-Nov (discussion)


Nuxfanabroad

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I'm not concerned with his numbers or his play so far, but if the Canucks are going to succeed by playing 4 lines and not burning out the Sedins, it seems counterintuitive to make the playoffs using up one goalie.

Miller played 58 games last year and had a tough playoff.

would certainly like to see him fresh in the playoffs.

Precisely.

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It's a bit tough to give an objective answer of how a goalie is playing. Stats can be helpful, but they can also be skewed by many factors outside the goalie's control. Who seriously thinks we should blame a goalie when his own D deflects a puck into his net? And yet it still counts against his stats (and is particularly damaging in a small sample size like Lack has.) Likewise, teams that play good defense can help make a goalie look good by reducing the number of difficult saves he needs to make.

Even wins can be misleading. Of course the goalie was often an important part of a win, but sometimes a team wins in spite of a goalie's bad performance and sometimes they lose despite a goalie's good performance. (Example: Luongo currently only has 5 wins in 12 games, but he also has a .927 SV%, which jumps to .943 5-on-5, and he has managed to help his team get at least a point in 9 of those 12 games. Obviously, his number of wins does not indicate how well he is playing as much as it does his team's ability to capitalize on the opportunities he's giving them.)

So, though we'd all love an easy way to determine how well a goalie's playing in truth it's really hard to tease out all of the factors that influence a goalie's stats to expose the truth about how he is individually performing. But, if we try looking at the stats from a few different angles we might get a better indication.

One possible way might be to compare goalies with similar success. Currently, Miller is tied for the most number of wins (11) with Rinne, Bishop, and Price. When we compare SV% we see that their SV% (.929, .919, & .919 respectively) are significantly higher than Miller's (.902).

Of course, a terrible team PK can negatively impact a goalie's SV%, especially if a team takes a lot of penalties, so it's often helpful to look at their 5-on-5 SV%. Currently Miller has a .905 SV% 5-on-5. Compare that to the other 11-win goalies: Rinne - .948, Bishop - .917, Price .926. (And just to include him, Lack's 5-on-5 SV% is currently .903.)

We can also try to account for how a few bad losses can impact a goalie's stats by looking only at his wins. Comparing the goalies who currently have 11 wins, we see that Miller allowed 21 goals in his wins while Rinne allowed 16, Bishop allowed 24, and Price allowed 20. Also in those 11 wins, Miller's SV% was .930, Rinne's was .947, Bishop's was .919, and Price's was .940. All in all, it would seem that when we win Miller does indeed play well. (If anyone is wondering, Miller's SV% in losses, .759, is significantly worse than the other 11-win goalies which of course brings down his overall SV%.)

So, while Miller's play has probably not been as strong as some here would like to believe and there's definitely room for improvement, he is playing well and giving his team a chance to win most games. And, the fact that we have the goalie with the most wins in the fewest games is obviously an indication that the team is performing well and not just depending on the goalie to win games, which is actually good news because that's been a major problem for years. Imagine how dangerous this team could be if they maintain this level of team play and get even slightly better goaltending performances...

As for the number of starts each should get, I do think Lack should get more than he has been. His stats thus far this season look far worse than his performances have actually been. Still, Miller is our starter and should still get the bulk of starts. And, they may have wanted to give him more at the beginning of the season just to help him settle in with his new team, which is not a bad idea. As the season goes on, though, I hope we'll see more of Lack. When all is said and done, I'd think somewhere around a 50/32 split would be ideal. It'll keep Lack limber and involved as well as help him continue developing. It'll also keep Miller relatively fresh for hopefully a long post-season run. Go, Canucks!

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3.40 and ..896 is amongst the league's worst stats.

53rd out of 66 NHL goalies in save %.

57th out of 66 NHL goalies in GAA.

If you think Miller's stats are crappy (while leading the league in wins) one has to wonder where this team would be if JB had not set adrift Garrison and his salary to attain an elite goalie.

It's amazing how fans just forget what the problem was last season and honestly some are dumb.

The reason why Miller has 11 wins is simple, GOAL SCORING IMPROVEMENT.

Last season how many 1-0 or 2-1 games did we lose? If we had Miller last season, instead of Lack and Lu we would have still finished in the same spot. Excluding Miller's bad games, he was letting in about 2 goals on average which is good, so was Lu last year. Lu didn't have a game last season where he let in more than 4 goals. Difference now so far is so clear, we are scoring and able to win games by getting more than 1 or 2 goals a game, which wasn't happening last season.

Look at Miller's stats and yet some fans still thinking "oh he has 11 wins" is all because of Miller, or is it because our offense has improved greatly so far. Pretty obvious.

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I dont see Miller as any better than Luongo. Which is fine, because I think Luongo is great. We go from one of the last in the league to one of the first in the league in goals for, you think that will have any relevance on wins? Wins are not a good way to determine how good a goalie is, save % is the closest, but its not perfect either. If we had Luongo this year, or Miller last year I don't think much would have changed.

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^Gotta' say, I hated the old 'Fuhr-argument' that it's not how MANY saves..but WHEN they're made. Any decent 'tender would have won Cups with that Oiler cast, just as Barrasso & Osgood would later confirm with their respective powerhouses.

So much flat-out LUCK involved for young gt's, involving the team they start out with(or get dealt to).

Very few human beings will walk on water(& turn a team's fortunes) ala vintage Hasek, from the '90s Sabres. Even if the talent's a possibility, usually there's a mental or physical letdown oncoming.

60~80% of gt accomplishments/failures are basically team-attributable.

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I'm not concerned with his numbers or his play so far, but if the Canucks are going to succeed by playing 4 lines and not burning out the Sedins, it seems counterintuitive to make the playoffs using up one goalie.

Miller played 58 games last year and had a tough playoff.

would certainly like to see him fresh in the playoffs.

The brain trust will have to see a much better Lack for that to happen.

Eddie's 1-3 record and 3.40 / .896 have little to do with the goals our team are scoring.

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