Forks in the Road

[JamesB]

One thing I find striking about this season is how the Canuck prospects have taken different paths. Last year, Horvat, Shinkaruk, Fox and Gaunce were all top tier juniors. And during the summer at the prospects camp and the young stars tournament and even in the main camp they all hung out together and seemed on more or less equal terms. I remember a video of Fox joking with Horvat about who was better in the face-off circle. And they all have very similar contracts that pay close to 900K at the NHL level but only about 70K in the AHL (and probably less in the ECHL).

But what a difference a few months make.

Horvat has earned a regular spot as 4C on the Canucks. Given that he has shown he can contribute effectively at the NHL at age 19 and that players pretty much always improve significantly between age 19 into their mid-20s, Horvat looks like a lock to have a sold NHL career and, at a minimum, be a good 3C who plays shutdown, kills penalties, takes key defensive zone faceoffs, and provides secondary scoring.

Dane Fox scored more last year in the OHL than Horvat but did not even make Utica in the AHL but instead is on the K-Wings in the ECHL. He started strong and looked like he might get a call-up to Utica but has cooled off dramatically and does not look likely to get a call-up this year. Giiven that he is already 21 and is no better than an average ECHL player, his chances of ever making the NHL look slim (not impossible, but slim).

Shinkaruk and Gauce are in the middle. Shinkaruk is playing in the top 6 in Utica and the coaches are saying good things about him. Given the defensive style played by Utica it is hard to generate a lot of points, but he is getting on the scoreboard (9 pts in 20 games) and is apparently playing a pretty good two-way game.

Gaunce is playing in the bottom six at Utica and has 7 pts in 20 games but is apparently playing very well defensively and can play a "heavy" game.

Based on their age and performance neither Gaunce nor Shinkaruk looks like a lock to make it as a regular in the NHL, but both are on a trajectory that makes getting to the NHL in a couple of years reasonably likely. It would help if, as Jensen did last year, they could make a lot of progress over the course of the year (which is pretty common for first year AHL guys).

If those guys get together next summer for a dinner, Horvat will have to pay. He is getting about 900K, whiile Gaunce and Shinkaruk are each getting 70K, and Fox is probably getting quite a bit less. (ECHL salaries are normally lower than AHL salaries but they are not shown in CapGeek so I do not know what they are.)

One interesting point is the importance of age. Horvat is the youngest and does not turn 20 until April 2015, Shinkaruk turned 20 in October, Gauce turned 20 last April, and Fox turned 21 in October.

With that kind of age spread, if guys look similar in ability at a point in time when they are all in junior -- like last year -- they have very different projected ceilings. The youngest guy projects to a much higher ceiling than the oldest guy.

This bodes well for Virtanen who was one of the youngest guys in the draft last year.

I wonder if this ordering is pretty much set or if things will turn around.Will we see Shinkaruk playing in the top 6 on the Canucks while Horvat tops out at 3C? I am guessing that this ordering will be stable: Horvat > Shinkaruk > Gaunce > Fox. I would project NHL 2C as the ceiling for Horvat, Marginal second line or third line for Shinkaruk, 3rd to 4th line for Gaunce, and no NHL for Fox.

[bigbadcanucks]

Gaunce is learning how to be a bottom six player in the AHL because that is what he's projected to be in the NHL. IMO, Gaunce will be in the NHL as a third/fourth liner sooner than later, mainly because he's faster than he's perceived, and even as a junior was playing a pro-style defensive game.

Shinkaruk lost a year which IMO set him back. This is fine because the Canucks really don't have a need for Shink to step in for another 2-3 years. And Shink will be competing with Nick Jensen for a top six wing position in the short term, and it looks like Jensen has the inside track right now.

IMO, Fox is in a dog fight to even have a sniff at the NHL.

Virtanen, McCann and Cassels are probably 3-5 years away from the NHL, which works out fine given that it doesn't look like the current top six on the big club aren't going anywhere for awhile.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Just a minor point regarding ECHL salaries:

IIRC only players on ECHL contracts get those low weekly salaries. Players like Fox who have an NHL ELC will still make their "AHL salary" ($70,000) but only count as $525/week on the ECHL club's salary cap.

At least that's always been my understanding. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

[Rey]

I don't think any of them are surprises at all. If people just watched them play and just ignore all the stats, everything is happening the way it is and was expected to happen. I don't believe in labeling a player because it takes some luck to move up and down the lineup. Dane Fox was a kid, who had a NHL shot and that's it. Lacked foot speed, and everything else with it. There was a reason he wasn't drafted but put him in the right situation, say give him time with the Twins, and who knows.

Also look in it, in a business side of things. Gaunce and Shinkaruk could play in the AHL, while Horvat had to be in the NHL or OHL. Here is a situation where the organization wasn't sure if there was anything left for Horvat to do in the OHL, and gave him his 9 games, and Horvat capitalized and made it count.

I also get the feel that if Gaunce had the same opportunity as Horvat, he probably would have took it as well. The NHL level is different for everyone, some thrive and some don't and most players won't until they get a chance. Horvat is getting a chance now, and we'll be able to see him develop and be able to adjust to NHL pace which is something the other prospects aren't able to do.

I notice a lot of young players who get a chance in the NHL early, who get send back down end up becoming much better in the AHL than they were. That's how much being in the NHL can help a player. Nick Jensen is an example of it happening right, where he wasn't putting much points in the AHL. Then he gets his NHL stint, and now he's producing in the AHL like he should. The same thing happened with Alex Burrows and Mason Raymond.

[Rey]

Virtanen, McCann and Cassels are probably 3-5 years away from the NHL, which works out fine given that it doesn't look like the current top six on the big club aren't going anywhere for awhile.

For every prospect. They'll get their chances. If they can prove that they can play, they will. It's too bad, all of the players you listed were sick or had injuries which hurt their chances. You could say the same with Shinkaruk.

McCaan and Virtanen have consistency issues. Cassels was looking real good but he just got a 10 game suspension. None of them will/should start off in the top six anyways. It really depends how they develop.

[Bruce Boudreau]

Tons can change with injuries and players being brought in that can affect their potential. Harder to project an 18 year old kids upside compared to a 20-23 year old like in the NFL where what you see is pretty much what you get.

Opportunity and being in the right system on the right team in the right environment is also overlooked.

Also personal qualities like perseverance, being hard working and willing to adapt and be mature are huge factors to success in the pros.

Obviously you need talent. Usually though to get a chance as a young player you have to prove you won't cost the team and make bonehead plays consistently defensively before you get a chance to show what you can do.

Horvat has done that. He is doing what the coaches what. Win face offs play good d and chip in offensively when you can.

Burrows made a good point about him and Kesler and Bieksa when they first tried to stick in the NHL they proved they were willing to do whatever it took to stick before showing they could contribute more offensively.

Sesitio is an example of a guy who has been pigeon holed as a tough guy. But he has shown he actually is a decent skater for a big guy and has pretty good hands to score some goals around the net.

He actually scored more goals than James Neal his last year of junior so there is some ability there.

He probably feels he just needs a chance and somebody who believes in his ability to show he can play and not just fight guys.

Look at a guy like Dutch Gretzky Dale Weise who looks a whole different player with the Habs.

[linden17]

Ditto

you two need a life.

[StarGirl]

One thing I find striking about this season is how the Canuck prospects have taken different paths. Last year, Horvat, Shinkaruk, Fox and Gaunce were all top tier juniors. And during the summer at the prospects camp and the young stars tournament and even in the main camp they all hung out together and seemed on more or less equal terms. I remember a video of Fox joking with Horvat about who was better in the face-off circle. And they all have very similar contracts that pay close to 900K at the NHL level but only about 70K in the AHL (and probably less in the ECHL).

But what a difference a few months make.

Horvat has earned a regular spot as 4C on the Canucks. Given that he has shown he can contribute effectively at the NHL at age 19 and that players pretty much always improve significantly between age 19 into their mid-20s, Horvat looks like a lock to have a sold NHL career and, at a minimum, be a good 3C who plays shutdown, kills penalties, takes key defensive zone faceoffs, and provides secondary scoring.

Dane Fox scored more last year in the OHL than Horvat but did not even make Utica in the AHL but instead is on the K-Wings in the ECHL. He started strong and looked like he might get a call-up to Utica but has cooled off dramatically and does not look likely to get a call-up this year. Giiven that he is already 21 and is no better than an average ECHL player, his chances of ever making the NHL look slim (not impossible, but slim).

Shinkaruk and Gauce are in the middle. Shinkaruk is playing in the top 6 in Utica and the coaches are saying good things about him. Given the defensive style played by Utica it is hard to generate a lot of points, but he is getting on the scoreboard (9 pts in 20 games) and is apparently playing a pretty good two-way game.

Gaunce is playing in the bottom six at Utica and has 7 pts in 20 games but is apparently playing very well defensively and can play a "heavy" game.

Based on their age and performance neither Gaunce nor Shinkaruk looks like a lock to make it as a regular in the NHL, but both are on a trajectory that makes getting to the NHL in a couple of years reasonably likely. It would help if, as Jensen did last year, they could make a lot of progress over the course of the year (which is pretty common for first year AHL guys).

If those guys get together next summer for a dinner, Horvat will have to pay. He is getting about 900K, whiile Gaunce and Shinkaruk are each getting 70K, and Fox is probably getting quite a bit less. (ECHL salaries are normally lower than AHL salaries but they are not shown in CapGeek so I do not know what they are.)

One interesting point is the importance of age. Horvat is the youngest and does not turn 20 until April 2015, Shinkaruk turned 20 in October, Gauce turned 20 last April, and Fox turned 21 in October.

With that kind of age spread, if guys look similar in ability at a point in time when they are all in junior -- like last year -- they have very different projected ceilings. The youngest guy projects to a much higher ceiling than the oldest guy.

This bodes well for Virtanen who was one of the youngest guys in the draft last year.

I wonder if this ordering is pretty much set or if things will turn around.Will we see Shinkaruk playing in the top 6 on the Canucks while Horvat tops out at 3C? I am guessing that this ordering will be stable: Horvat > Shinkaruk > Gaunce > Fox. I would project NHL 2C as the ceiling for Horvat, Marginal second line or third line for Shinkaruk, 3rd to 4th line for Gaunce, and no NHL for Fox.

I have pretty much the same guess for the order.

As soon as I knew that Horvat has locked his spot in the roster for this season already, I thought of Shinkaruk right after.

Both Horvat and Shinkaruk have somewhat a different playing style, so I don't really think they can be compared much, but people still argued that Shinkaruk lacks a TON from Horvat while Shinkaruk did well during the preseason games.

Probably preseason games mean less "legit" as a try out to some people, but I know that some people think it is a good try out for the prospects. I think it gives them a huge sense of playing in the NHL for sure.

Virtanen's our highest pick since the 90's, he might be what most people expects him to be...

One of our long-lasting Canucks and possibly the "face" of the future team. Plus, he's a BC boy.

I like Virtanen's game-play, but since Horvat is also a big pick for us, I think it's definite to say he will stay with us possibly for the future as well too...? Don't know, but that's what I'm guessing.

And like I said before, Shinkaruk doesn't seem too far away from Horvat to make the team too.

Seems like Gaunce will be right after Shinkaruk.

They are what I heard the most to be anticipated to be a future star on the team.

But then that means...

So where does Jensen go to? Jensen is called up right now, and I heard he has been doing well with his production...But there's so many people who have been saying that they're expecting the future top stars of the team to include Virtanen, Horvat and Shinkaruk, and sometimes Gaunce. I barely hear Jensen mentioned as a long-lasting Canuck or a future star for our team.

I'm not too sure about Fox either though.

I was hoping for another prospect to join Horvat this season with the team, but I'm afraid it might not happen...Still hoping for it though! However, I think it's true the other prospects will have a higher chance to possibly make it next season or even in the next few seasons too.

[Bruce Boudreau]

I have pretty much the same guess for the order.

As soon as I knew that Horvat has locked his spot in the roster for this season already, I thought of Shinkaruk right after.

Both Horvat and Shinkaruk have somewhat a different playing style, so I don't really think they can be compared much, but people still argued that Shinkaruk lacks a TON from Horvat while Shinkaruk did well during the preseason games.

Probably preseason games mean less "legit" as a try out to some people, but I know that some people think it is a good try out for the prospects. I think it gives them a huge sense of playing in the NHL for sure.

Virtanen's our highest pick since the 90's, he might be what most people expects him to be...

One of our long-lasting Canucks and possibly the "face" of the future team. Plus, he's a BC boy.

I like Virtanen's game-play, but since Horvat is also a big pick for us, I think it's definite to say he will stay with us possibly for the future as well too...? Don't know, but that's what I'm guessing.

And like I said before, Shinkaruk doesn't seem too far away from Horvat to make the team too.

Seems like Gaunce will be right after Shinkaruk.

They are what I heard the most to be anticipated to be a future star on the team.

But then that means...

So where does Jensen go to? Jensen is called up right now, and I heard he has been doing well with his production...But there's so many people who have been saying that they're expecting the future top stars of the team to include Virtanen, Horvat and Shinkaruk, and sometimes Gaunce. I barely hear Jensen mentioned as a long-lasting Canuck or a future star for our team.

I'm not too sure about Fox either though.

I was hoping for another prospect to join Horvat this season with the team, but I'm afraid it might not happen...Still hoping for it though! However, I think it's true the other prospects will have a higher chance to possibly make it next season or even in the next few seasons too.

Yeah Fox seems like a long shot. Never good when you are a bad skater or even average skater in today's high speed NHL that gets faster every year.

His teammate on the Erie Otters who played on the same line with him and McDaivd, Connor Brown, a Leafs prospect is doing much better in the AHL so far and proving he actually was not totally carried by McDavid unlike Fox.

[dura_mater]

The youngest guy projects to a much higher ceiling than the oldest guy.

This bodes well for Virtanen who was one of the youngest guys in the draft last year.

There is a major flaw in this reasoning. If you assume every player improves until a certain age - lets say 25, then yes the younger guys have a higher ceiling. Unfortunately, this isn't how it works.

[JamesB]

Just a minor point regarding ECHL salaries:

IIRC only players on ECHL contracts get those low weekly salaries. Players like Fox who have an NHL ELC will still make their "AHL salary" ($70,000) but only count as $525/week on the ECHL club's salary cap.

At least that's always been my understanding. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Thanks for this explanation. I had been wondering how the ECHL salary cap works. This makes sense.

[bigbadcanucks]

Just a minor point regarding ECHL salaries:

IIRC only players on ECHL contracts get those low weekly salaries. Players like Fox who have an NHL ELC will still make their "AHL salary" ($70,000) but only count as $525/week on the ECHL club's salary cap.

At least that's always been my understanding. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

All of that is correct. Except for players who have a part of their ELC contract in the form of signing bonus. They get this as well. So, for example, Fox has a minor league salary of $70K and signing bonus of $92,500, so he's actually making $162,500 playing in the ECHL right now.

[BanTSN]

And now we know never to get excited about overager success ever again. Right?

[bigbadcanucks]

I was hoping for another prospect to join Horvat this season with the team, but I'm afraid it might not happen...Still hoping for it though! However, I think it's true the other prospects will have a higher chance to possibly make it next season or even in the next few seasons too.

I understand what you're saying (i.e., prospects from the 19/20 group). But we actually do have another prospect on the team. His name is Linden Vey. And his play of late is evidence that he is still a prospect with a fair bit to learn to be an effective every-day player in the NHL.

IMO, Vey's development path is probably the ideal route for all our prospects. Let the kids develop their game in the AHL (allow them to be top level players there for a season or two) and at the age of 22/23 either they have earned a spot on the Canucks roster or they are traded as valued assets for relatively high pick. Obviously, if a kid kicks down the door and stakes his claim by his play, you have no option but to make room for him (which is a good problem to have).

FTR, this is the "model" being used by Detroit, Chicago, LA, etc. for player succession planning, and was the blue print laid out by the infamous Sam Pollock when he was running the show in Montreal way back when.

Gillis actually left Benning with a decent stable of young prospects (Gaunce, Shink, Corrado, Jensen) for Benning to build on (he also left Benning a few stinkers like Mallet, Schroeder, Dalpe, Welsh, Lain, etc. that Benning was quick to get rid of).

[bigbadcanucks]

And now we know never to get excited about overager success ever again. Right?

Alex Mallet...another example. What a waste of a second round draft pick.

Though, I got to say, I'm mildly intrigued by Utica contracted player Curtis Valk. Every once in awhile, one of these undersized players with lots of skill falls through the cracks. Difference, I suppose, is that Valk can skate, whereas Fox can't.

I know nothing about Mitch Holmberg...can the kid skate?

[coryberg]

And now we know never to get excited about overager success ever again. Right?

yep they all end up busts like Jake muzzin.

(BTW I didn't think a picture of a fork stuck in a road was so brutality off base considering the title of the thread is "forks in the road")

l

l

V

[alfstonker]

I think you may have underestimated Gaunce. I think he will be better than Horvat when he arrives. Like the poster above says if Gaunce had got Horvat's chance he would have stuck. I would love to see what Gaunce could do between Dorsett and Hansen.

As for Fox, I don't count him out yet. He may have had a dip in form but that can happen to young players. I don't think we should be counting him out of contention yet. We have a team in Utica that is making a name for itself and it will take a long consistent run of form for Fox to break into the team at present. Not impossible.

Shink suffered a long injury layoff and it may have affected his progress more than he/we realised. However he is in the right place now to make an impact. If he starts to break out after Christmas into the form he showed 2 pre seasons ago, who knows he may get a call up if there are injuries. Above all the others I think he has the temperament to shine in the NHL.

[Nuxfanabroad]

So quick, Dane Fox turned into a lazy dog.

[Fred65]

What makes me smile is looking back to last season the number of posters who were over the top with their assesment of all the GREAT stars Vcr prospects were sure to become. First round picks that make it to the NHL are approx 60% and that includes Vcr first round picks...and remember this is makes it to the NHL ....not become stars in the NHL...it drops of the 20% in subsequent rounds

[StarGirl]

I understand what you're saying (i.e., prospects from the 19/20 group). But we actually do have another prospect on the team. His name is Linden Vey. And his play of late is evidence that he is still a prospect with a fair bit to learn to be an effective every-day player in the NHL.

IMO, Vey's development path is probably the ideal route for all our prospects. Let the kids develop their game in the AHL (allow them to be top level players there for a season or two) and at the age of 22/23 either they have earned a spot on the Canucks roster or they are traded as valued assets for relatively high pick. Obviously, if a kid kicks down the door and stakes his claim by his play, you have no option but to make room for him (which is a good problem to have).

FTR, this is the "model" being used by Detroit, Chicago, LA, etc. for player succession planning, and was the blue print laid out by the infamous Sam Pollock when he was running the show in Montreal way back when.

Gillis actually left Benning with a decent stable of young prospects (Gaunce, Shink, Corrado, Jensen) for Benning to build on (he also left Benning a few stinkers like Mallet, Schroeder, Dalpe, Welsh, Lain, etc. that Benning was quick to get rid of).

True. I didn't really had Vey as a "prospect" in my mind because he was in the team pretty much right away though he's been scratched quite a lot/sometimes. I was thinking for another prospect like our own draft picked ones to come up with Horvat, since I think they'd have each other to experience the first start of making it into the NHL together would be a very nice touch on.