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Canucks Point Projections at the 1/3 mark


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We have now completed a third of the season, so I thought it would be interesting to see where our players are projected to be offensively based on current statistics for the year! I did this previous at roughly the 1/5 mark of the season, so it could also be interesting to see the difference of the paces between then and now. Here’s to link to that topic: http://forum.canucks.com/topic/365028-point-paces-thus-far/

Without further ado, here are the projections based on 28 games.

Pacesafter28games2014-15.png

This time, I also did goaltender projections.

GoaliePacesafter28games2014-15.png

And finally, the projections for our team

Teampaceafter28games2014-15.png

Here are some unique things I noticed.

  • A lot of players have very low amounts of PIM. Could the Sedins have a chance at the Lady Byng this year?
  • Vrbata is on pace to lead the team with 35 goals, exactly tying his record from 3 years ago.
  • A startling lack of offense from the defense corps. Edler is the highest projected point-getter at 27 points. His 9 goals aren’t bad, but 27 points should not be your top offensive defenseman.
  • Kassian is having an off year. He is injured, but his numbers while playing were quite low.
  • Dorsett is on pace for the best offensive year of his 7-year career.
  • Hansen’s hat-trick a while back has skewed his results to put him on pace for a whopping 23 goals, blowing away his previous best of 16 goals.
  • Their hot play as of late has put both Matthias and Richardson on pace to beat their career bests in points.
  • Vey is on pace for a pretty darn good rookie year.
  • Bonino is on pace to have a better year than last year, despite limited powerplay success for him.
  • This probably won’t continue, but Miller’s pace is darn close to breaking the goaltender wins record, with 47. (Brodeur has the record with 48).
  • The team is on pace to tie their point total in 2011-12 (111 points).

Hope this was informative!

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Richardson probably will fall closer in line to 30ish points, but that's still great production for a forward who's used generally in defensive situations.

Again, I think he's a great presence in the locker room and a leader for the bottom six. Anything 2.5 and under and it's worth re-signing him.

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The depth says it all. Forget about these last 2 games, but the Canucks depth scoring has been one of if not the best in the NHL. Our bottom-6 are better than ever before and these guys are going to break playoff games open. When you've got 15-20 goal scorers on your third and fourth lines you know you've got a deep team.

That's the good. The bad is our pathetic defensive play, almost no offence from the defence and inconsistent goaltending.

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From what I saw in the one third of the season it is clear, we will rely heavily on our ability to score which is great right now,but how about later. Our 2nd line has not been producing in the few games now and are now losing plusses. The concern is as long as they could not score is as difficult as getting back. The 3rd with Matthias and Vey has been perfect theyve won board battles which is what we could not do tonight, but hopefully kassian will step up for at least the half if the season when scoring is cold. Finish is also an issue, we should capitalize in our chances. Last, our goalie, Miller just make our team score more which is great even with low saving pct, as winning is all about scoring one more than the other team. Lack is not bad but, I feel that he's not so much trusted on the ice, they are more defensive when his in and doing more chip n chase, maybe because of back to back start, but every goal will give up goals no matter how good they are.

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The lack of offense from the D is definitely startling, and very concerning. But our point totals from our forwards look fantastic, albeit even if they are skewed. Our offense is getting the job done. What I really dislike is the 228 goals against. I guess that's probably about average for middle of the pack teams, but if we want to be elite, we seriously need to work badly on our defense. Only two Dmen have impressed me this year, Edler and Tanev. That is very concerning. Hamhuis didn't look good either before he went down with injury. We need to work defensively.

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The projections for Mathias & Miller are higher than I would have scheduled them for at the top of the year. And good for Mathias because he is playing great hockey. Bieksa and Hamhuis are definitely lower. And I would have thought around 97 to 100 points as a team. I actually think we are playing at about that level, and Miller won us a few games we might not have deserved to bring up totals.

But as a whole this is eerily dead on!

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In what world does 53 wins and 6 OTL add up to 111 points

In the world of rounded numbers. It says 53 wins and 6 OTL, but in reality it's actually 52.71 wins and 5.85 OT wins. However, for the sake of readability and undesirability, I didn't put decimal points in. I usually try to correct for adding errors like that but I forgot that one.

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cool, thanks!

You should consider working the goalie projections based on their actual games started, extrapolate to 82 games, then multiply by their current ratio of starts. At least that'd make the goalie GP add up to 82 ha.

I just used games played in because that's the traditional method of calculating a goaltender's games played.

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Bonino has no points for a quite a few games now. I remember he was on pace for 65-70 for quite a while. He's a streaky player, so I think the projection of 56 points is realistic, and good. Also, his wingers' success seems to really depend on his success, because Burrows was above half a point a per game for a while too, but cooled off.

Stanton is one player I'm uncertain about. There are times where I think he has improved and has top-4 potential, but there are also times where I think he's regressed. Last year, he had 16 points in 64 games (on pace for 20), but he isn't putting up as many points this year. Since Hamhuis is out, I thought he would get a bit more ice time, but he stills gets the same amount. Sbisa has proven he can step into the top-4 just fine (with a few bad moments), but that doesn't mean we need to give him 22+ minutes a game and Stanton only 14.

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The depth says it all. Forget about these last 2 games, but the Canucks depth scoring has been one of if not the best in the NHL. Our bottom-6 are better than ever before and these guys are going to break playoff games open. When you've got 15-20 goal scorers on your third and fourth lines you know you've got a deep team.

That's the good. The bad is our pathetic defensive play, almost no offence from the defence and inconsistent goaltending.

Agreed about the offense.

For the defense, I'd wait until Hammer comes back (hopefully before the trade deadline?!), pair him with Bieksa and see if they still have it as a shutdown duo. As for the offense, I think it would be a good idea to target a purely offensive guy and (if needed) a cheap, safe defensive depth guy who can lock things down and enable the P.M.D. to do his thing.

Edler - Tanev

Hammer - Bieksa* (unless we get a big minute puck-mover in which I'd bump Juice to the 3rd, I'd keep Juice on the 2nd)

______ - ______

Good that we have so much quality depth on D (Sbisa, Weber, Stanton, Corrado) that we can move to help with the offense. Of course, Sbisa has been a decent depth option and so has Weber, and both have done well as a pairing, but some combination of the four depth guys should be moved to open up space for a good PP QB.

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