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Short term pain for long term gain (Discussion)


J.I.A.H.N

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Notice this before?

Bennings model / strategy is draft and develop in a winning environment. (ie play-off making team). Nothing new.

The Utica Comets are made up of strong goaltending, AHL veterans (who will never likely play in the NHL but they are seasoned pro's) and bona fide prospects who will one day get promoted to the Canucks. Utica is to be a perennial play-off team.

The Vancouver Canucks are made up of strong goaltending, NHL veterans and prospects who will one day take over the core positions of the veterans. The Canucks are to be a perennial play-off team.

If this Parallel Universe theory has already been posted, I apologise, I haven't seen it.

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Hlinkas

I don't think we are as competitive as you think. Maybe I am wrong. But we are getting older, if Hank goes down...we are in trouble, IMO

But I have been a fan that long as well, and the biggest thing I can remember is not having good prospects. Until Naz and Hank, we have never had good centerman.......and look what happened when we got them. To me the importance of being strong down the middle is paramount. Lets not even talk about a premier #1 defenseman......how many of those have we had? We need one, it would help a lot.......we have a long way to go.

Our fan base has always demanded we have the best, and it has gotten us in more trouble than we could handle. Do you remember the 70's and 80's, we always were just bad enough...and just good enough to get into the playoffs and get booted 1st round and not get a good pick....do I really have to list our picks from back then. History repeats its self.......and IMO we will be worse off in 2 years if we don't move while we can.

I would be fine with trading just one aging stars.......look, I am not arguing that they don't have talent, or that they won't have talent in 2 years, I am saying that in 2 years they will be weaker, older and have less value....2 years from now, where do we get a higher end Hamhuis or Vrbata's from? If you say UFA's, then it could be argued that we should do that now....what would be the difference? And in that case, I would vote, now.

Going back to the original post, I explain why I have come to this conclusion, with numbers, but honestly, I have now seen in person and watched on tv, lack luster games, that even when then win, it is lack luster and our dominance in those games have been more to do with our opposition than our talent. Hey, they won the last 2 games by shut outs...who did they beat...did we beat them because we are that good or because they are that bad? The answer is in the sports section of the paper....everyone is beating them.

Again, the numbers I posted only emphasize my point......we shall see

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I don't think we are as competitive as you think. Maybe I am wrong.

Check the standings.

But we are getting older, if Hank goes down...we are in trouble, IMO

That's irrelevant and a "what if". What if all your acquired picks bust?

Even if you somehow were to trade off all these guys for picks, none of them are going to step in, perhaps not for a couple of years or more. In the meantime, your model has an inexperienced team that will flounder and development and confidence will suffer, as opposed to the current model that fosters a competitive and winning environment. Things need to be done in moderation not with C4.

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Naslund was a winger, Morrison was the centre. But this kind of supports the argument because it was a weak part of the previous West Coast Express version of the Canucks and may be a reason for their "almost" success. Centres are vital for success (as well as D and goaltending) and the Canucks have always been short on centres. Maybe we take it for granted since Hank has been around for so long.

There are a multitude of centre prospects in the system from recent drafts. Gillis was loading up and so is Benning (maybe even more so). The rationale is that many will not become NHL centres but some will surely. Hopefully there will be a #1 and #2 in the mix. And if they don't make it as a centre, they can be converted to play on the wing.

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feel better now...

Yeah, a little bit.

Just tired of people thinking that trading the vets that are keeping this team remotely competitive will somehow yield Benning super high picks that will turn into players that will make this team a contender in about 2 years. It's as if Higgins, Bieksa, Hansen, and Hamhuis are magic beans that will help this team reach new heights once they get planted somewhere else.

Now, I'm not opposed to trading away our vets for youth/picks, but not until the youth is ready to take over or the offer is just too good. In reality, none of the teams that will be picking in the top third of this years draft will trade their first for any package of our vets. Benning might get a late first for a Hamhuis (assuming he waves). A player picked in that spot in 2 years won't likely be on the team, let alone be a driving force on a contender. Hopefully, Jensen will be ready soon. That will make a Higgins/Hansen available (once again, assuming they waive). Trade them for a pick/prospect at that point, probably looking at a 2nd rounder at best though.

Yeah, the team has holes, making new ones won't help this team in the short or long term.

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Hits.

The Canucks do not have a single player ranked in the top 60 in hits. Derek Dorsett leads the team tied for 65th in the NHL with 94 hits. The league leaders have 180-200. Want to know who is next in the standings on this team? Kevin Bieksa and Luca Sbisa tied at 123rd in the NHL.

I'm sorry this seems to have fallen inbetween the cracks but you simply cannot ice an intimidating team and win with such passive play. Special teams are nice but you have to make yourself some space to play by throwing the bodies. Make guys afraid to descend on you in battles- there is none of that. Teams pile on us like it was a football game because there is absolutely 0 threat there. I say it makes more of a difference than special teams play.

Drawing penalties: You don't when you aren't skating, instead of drawing some interference or hooking slashing by being out of reach the Canucks are happy to be a bit slower and not move feet, just letting stick checks in, and their passing isn't accurate enough to make up for their loss of speed. The puck should be moving faster than the other teams players when we control the posession but it rarely is and that is why there are fewer offensive opportunities than there used to be. You either make space by being fast, by having accurate passing, or by hitting alot, or by having a good amount of two of these things...

While I agree with you, the Canucks need to hit more and be harder to play against in general, stats on hits are spurious. Some rinks, like on Long Island, give hits away like candy. Whereas, the Rogers centre is one of the harder rinks to get credited for a hit.
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I believe Linden and Benning are doing the right thing. Our young talent needs to develop in a winning environment, at least a winning percentage, look at the Oilers who drafted high several years in a row. They have high talent, but still haven't learned how to win together. Also, if the Canucks make the post season, it's a new season and anything can happen, and have. Take a look at when Sutter was brought in to the Kings, they made the postseason, then went on to win it all.

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#1...The numbers don't lie.......if you don't understand the numbers I can't help you

#2...As someone said above..........the whistle gets put away in the playoffs

#3...In no way am I ignoring our prospects, but if you think that Bo Horvat is a #1 center..well good on you..and he is our best forward prospect.

#4. In general.......the NHL is full of 1st round picks.......disproportionately

#5 Statistically.......elite prospects come from the top 10........again disproportionately

#6. Even.....Even if we had 3 picks in the 2015 first round and 2 more in 2016....even if we did have all that, it will take time to ripen all those and the ones we already have.....we are in a different position than Detroit.....our previous GM's left our cupboard pretty bare, as well as being competitive for a long time......but really it was the drafting and trading away of picks

#7. Let's address this "Tanking" notion.........as is, we may still end up with a 11 to 14 pick....it could happen even if we play at current levels with the current players............but what I am saying is, in 2 to 3 years, we will not have Hank or Dank, and Vrbata,

Hamhuis will be 34 and a slightly above average #3/4, with no near the value he has now. we will have no one to take over for our #1 line..........do you see a #1 center...a number #1 lw and #1rw..........maybe one!. I.don't see any #1 defenseman either!

#8........and make no mistake on this.......unless we trade youth for upgrades, we will be loser's next year regardless.....so much for having our prospects growing up in a winning environment

#9. I am totally against trading any prospects for vets.........Totally against it!

1) I agree with you that this team could possibly miss the playoffs and won't get that far in them, but I doubt we agree on what should be done.

2) Agreed (well except for VAN/SJ in 13', but does anyone even remember that?)

3) I think he'll be a top 6 center, but another one would be nice. McCann is a possibility I guess and Benning sees a lot in him, but I doubt that too.

4) Obviously.

5) Again, fairly obvious.

6) Right. Probably one of the reason trading everyone isn't the smartest move.

7) Actually we probably will still have the Sedins and Hamhuis will never become a "slightly above average 3/4", based on the style he plays. He doesn't rely too much on speed, he's good with his stick, makes smart passes, and smart plays. Also, there are a few players who could hit the 1st line. I'll look at the top 5 wingers in points, in the playoffs, for the past 5 cup winning teams and where they were drafted:

2010 Blackhawks:

1-P. Kane-1st Overall

2-D. Byfuglien-245th Overall

3-M. Hossa-12th Overall-acquired as a free agent

4-K. Versteeg-134th Overall

5-T. Brouwer-214th Overall

2011 Bruins:

1-B. Marchand-71st Overall

2-M. Ryder-216th Overall-acquired as a free agent

3-N. Horton-3rd Overall-acquired in a trade

4-M. Recchi-67th Overall-acquired in a trade

5-M. Lucic-50th Overall

2012 Kings:

1-D. Brown-13th Overall

2-J. Williams-28th Overall-acquired in a trade

3-J. Carter-11th Overall-acquired in a trade

4-D. Penner-Undrafted-acquired in a trade

5-T. Lewis-17th Overall

2013 Blackhawks:

1-P. Kane-1st Overall

2-B. Bickell-41st Overall

3-M. Hossa-12th Overall-acquired as a free agent

4-P. Sharp-95th Overall-acquired in a trade

5-M. Frolik-10th Overall-acquired in a trade

2014 Kings:

1-J. Williams-28th Overall-acquired in a trade

2-M. Gaborik-3rd Overall-acquired in a trade

3-D. Brown-13th Overall

4-T. Toffoli-47th Overall-47th Overall

5-T. Pearson-30th Overall

See, the only ones in the top 10 were Kane, Gaborik (who by the time he won was a veteran acquired in a trade), Horton (already established picked up in a trade), and Frolik (some top 10 pick).

Anyways #1 D-Man (top 2 D-Man by ice time in the playoffs on these teams): D. Keith (54th Overall), B. Seabrook (14th Overall), Z. Chara (56th Overall), D. Seidenberg (172nd Overall), D. Doughty (2nd Overall), W. Mitchell (199th Overall), Keith again, N. Hjalmarsson (108th Overall), Doughty again, and J. Muzzin (141st Overall)

Doughty, that's it, in the top 10.

Top 2 centers on each team: J. Toews (3rd Overall), P. Sharp (95th Overall), D. Krejci (63rd overall), P. Bergeron (45th overall), A. Kopitar (11th overall), M. Richards (24th Overall), Toews again, M. Handzus (101st overall), Kopitar again, and J. Carter (11th overall).

Toews in the top 10, that's it.

My main point is that it's more important to build for a certain system, make smart trades, and most importantly make smart draft choices and develop them well. Boston didn't draft anyone in the top 10 for their team, LA drafted one (Doughty), and Chicago drafted two (Toews and Kane).

8) There's a huge difference between being a bad team that's losing and just selling the team to lose on purpose. Although if we crash by the deadline sending off some players might not be a bad idea.

9) Me too.

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Just some quick facts to explain our reasons for not being a playoff competitive team this year, and one which explains why we have to rebuild.

In todays NHL, teams rely on Special teams to put themselves into a better competitive position when playing against their opposition. And in this statement lies our problems. Let's look!

Although we are ranked 10th in Power play percentage, this is somewhat misleading, and gives a false impression when looking at the Canucks. And here is why......

When we look at our Power Play, it runs and succeeds by way of the Sedins, all will admit they are slow, but they are magic when given room. The Sedins thrive on Power Plays and weak teams, as witnessed by our last 2 wins against Carolina and Phili.

There are 2 stats that show why we are not a team that will compete in the playoffs and one which might actually not even make the playoffs.....Are we as bad as last year? No, but we have problems and here they are....

#1. Our 5 on 5 play......this stat shows our pressure on other teams, and actually is as important to the power play stats as is the power play its self........we are ranked 21st in 5 on 5 play, and that has probably moved up a point or 2 since the last 2 games

#2. Now people will say that yes, but we are 10th in the league in Power Play %, and again, that is true, but is misleading, as the more telling stat is how many chances we actually get the Power Play compared to everyone else. In that stat, we are ranked 25th in Power Play Opportunities, which is a far more important stat.

This last stat has a direct correlation to our 5 on 5 play. If your team does not consistently control 5 on 5 play, you will not generate Power plays, therefore even if your power play is good, it just won't get on the ice enough to win.

The only thing that keeps us going is our Penalty Killing, which is great at 3rd overall in the league and keeps our goal differential between the Oppositions Power Play and our Power Play close, but as we play stiffer competition, those numbers do not mean as much, as 5 on 5 play starts to more and more dictate the final score of the games

The remedy to this reality is to obtain big, young, quick, offensively gifted players. Signing players like Vrbata and Miller only mask the problem as we are seeing...take Vrbata away from the mix, and we sink further into the hole. Keeping Vrbata, slows down the process, not a good idea in my opinion, this goes for others as well.

We need to be honest here, as our prospects, although solid, do not have top/elite offensive skills, other than Virtanen (and he needs to prove himself at a higher level) But over all, we are weak in that department, and need to address it quickly, or our rebuild will really start in 2 years....and by that I mean we will be much weaker and will then be picking regularly in the bottom 10.

I believe we can stem that tide, but it will be associated with some growing pains and acceptance of not being as competitive for the next couple of years....let's take advantage of our current position and the strong draft we are in......It is the time to trade our aging assets, that have worth today, but will have less in 2 years. Short term pain for long term gain!

Everything you are saying is right and I gave you plus cause I agree with you but you overlooked a few things.

First is how do we replace the sedins right now. Even if we somehow managed to trade them for McDavid we have to remember that we are going up against some big tough teams like LA, Anahaim, San Jose and yes now even Calgary. And that is the best player in this years draft. McDavid's talent will be wasted here like Nugent-Hopkins and Hall's were when they were drafted. I understand that McDavid is the can't miss generational talent but he is not the right fit for our conference he and is much better suited for the east.

But disregard that because we can't just trade the sedins without their permission and they will not accept being traded to a bottom feeding team but only a contender. What did Calgary get for trading Iginla to a contender;certainly not a 1st overall pick. We can't get the picks we like even if we did trade the sedins. In that case, it's better to keep them while we give our current prospects mainly Horvat, Shinkaruk, McCann, Virtanen and Jensen a chance to develop properly. We have already traded Schneider and Kesler for good prospects but I agree with you completely that we need better ones if we have any chance to compete in the future. Now you see that we have no choice but to stall our rebuild which will happen without us even having to tank when the sedins leave. It will be just like the late 90's when the team was terrible. There is no way around it.

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The team is 11 games above .500 and has as good a chance as any team in the playoffs if they can make it. When the Kings won their first Stanley Cup they barely made the playoffs. All you have to do is make the second season , and anything can happen. Your likely the same people that counted this same team out before the season started. Now that they've had some measure of success, all you try to do is find fault in a positive. Every so called Canucks fan is an " expert" and knows exactly what we need to do to win a Cup. My point is I trust the actual experts.

Except that's not really true (or at least not that simple). They still need to have good players and the talent to win. Luck does come into it a bit in terms of injuries and maybe facing the winners of someone who upset a top seed. LA was a very good team and the only reason they seemed to barely make the playoffs was because of a very slow start that they couldn't make up for in the standings. They were one of the best teams in the NHL heading into the playoffs. A team that limps in is pretty unlikely to go far.

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Everything you are saying is right and I gave you plus cause I agree with you but you overlooked a few things.

First is how do we replace the sedins right now. Even if we somehow managed to trade them for McDavid we have to remember that we are going up against some big tough teams like LA, Anahaim, San Jose and yes now even Calgary. And that is the best player in this years draft. McDavid's talent will be wasted here like Nugent-Hopkins and Hall's were when they were drafted. I understand that McDavid is the can't miss generational talent but he is not the right fit for our conference he and is much better suited for the east.

But disregard that because we can't just trade the sedins without their permission and they will not accept being traded to a bottom feeding team but only a contender. What did Calgary get for trading Iginla to a contender;certainly not a 1st overall pick. We can't get the picks we like even if we did trade the sedins. In that case, it's better to keep them while we give our current prospects mainly Horvat, Shinkaruk, McCann, Virtanen and Jensen a chance to develop properly. We have already traded Schneider and Kesler for good prospects but I agree with you completely that we need better ones if we have any chance to compete in the future. Now you see that we have no choice but to stall our rebuild which will happen without us even having to tank when the sedins leave. It will be just like the late 90's when the team was terrible. There is no way around it.

The other thing about trading the Sedins is that they might require being traded together as part of the deal. More conditions = less return.

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The truth is from the looks of it our next era of players will be like the WCE era; good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to make the finals or win a president's trophy. Like the 02/03 was the height of the WCE era and that is as good as I see our next era becoming and that's if Kassian=Bertuzzi, McCann/Horvat=Naslund, Shinkaruk=Morrision.

Either that or we become what Boston was in 2011

Kassian=Lucic

McCann/Horvat= Bergeron

Shinkaruk=Marchand

Virtanen=Horton

Cedarholm=Chara(k I know it's a stretch)

?=Krecji

?=Thomas

either way though I don't see the next one being as successful as the sedins were even if they all pan out which I don't see happening for some of them.

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The truth is from the looks of it our next era of players will be like the WCE era; good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to make the finals or win a president's trophy. Like the 02/03 was the height of the WCE era and that is as good as I see our next era becoming and that's if Kassian=Bertuzzi, McCann/Horvat=Naslund, Shinkaruk=Morrision.

Either that or we become what Boston was in 2011

Kassian=Lucic

McCann/Horvat= Bergeron

Shinkaruk=Marchand

Virtanen=Horton

Cedarholm=Chara(k I know it's a stretch)

?=Krecji

?=Thomas

either way though I don't see the next one being as successful as the sedins were even if they all pan out which I don't see happening for some of them.

Having two players the calibre of the Sedins on the same team and peaking at the same time is pretty rare.

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You're totally bang on! The thing is...linden and Benning have been told by owners to make the playoffs no matter what. Right now with Colorado,Minny and Dallas not playing well, it looks like we will make the playoffs. Obviously it would be nice to make the playoffs but chances are, will be facing one of the top dogs in the west, and be out in the first round. Will get a middle of the pack pick, and may get a gem (hopefully).

My hope is that somehow Benning can either make an unreal trade or somehow convinces one of our older players that have a NTC to wave. Otherwise, we have to just suck it up and be patient.

I personally would like to jumpstart the rebuild. I'd like to accumulate as many high draft pics as possible. I'm willing to have a couple losing seasons, if need be, to become a very good team with more than a reasonable chance to win the Stanley cup. The problem is that ownership is all about making the playoffs now. Gillis left Benning in a tough spot too with some of the contracts and having given away so many draft pics over the last few yrs. Benning did fantastic(or so it seems) at the draft last yr, and although garrison is a decent defenseman, he did great clearing some $ and term with that trade. Benning has his work cut out for him.

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I remember a time when everyone KNEW that Kesler and Burrows would never be more than 3rd line players...

I understand this is a discussion board and mainly for fun, but people also have to understand this team is a business as well. With the current level of competitiveness this team has in the league you will not see a fire sale like some would like. There will be no instant gratification.

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Reading all these post about 'lets suck' to get high draft picks, put in youth and get rid of the ageing players etc. I just wonder how many of you lot goes regularly to watch games at Rogers Arena?

Its a friggin business for god sake.

If we were to be so bad, I don't think the Aquilanis would wait long before changing management of this team again.

JB a new GM, WD a new NHL coach, not to mention Linden (this is all of their reputations + futures on the line here - Didn't go too well for Eakins in Edmonton)...

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I'm not necessarily ragging on your writing because you write well enough to convey your thoughts clearly. My comment is only that it is important to remember that the way a person writes influences how others react. It's a choice, but that choice affects how others perceive the poster. Again, you're posts are clear enough that it is not much of an issue, but you can see how it might have an effect if a person wrote like this: "Sedinz r greyt scorrers nd r y wee r da bast teem in da NHL." It would indicate a lack of thought towards the post (and I have seen many posters on pretty much every message board write like this). Typos do happen, and pobodies nerfect. It's only an issue when the poor spelling/ grammar starts to detract from how the content is read.

I agree that the D needs help, but I think Edler has matched too well with Tanev to throw that away. I think we would be better off bringing in another offensive defenseman who plays on another pairing. Edler hasn't been bad in the offensive end, but he has not put up points. Still, he has been the most important player on the back end this season, and I don't know that we could safely replace that with an pure offensive player.

I see what your saying, but as I also said don't judge a book by it's cover, don't judge a persons writing for their lack of knowledge. I understand your point of not putting an effort into the post and clarifying your reasons, but that person like myself may of not payed attention in school especially English to learn the basics of writing. There vocabulary may be not the proper english way, as many say a slang type, but that person could be a very intelligent person, although they just can't write or lack the knowledge of proper spelling grammar.

Anyways regards to the D, the reason why I believe Edler looks so well with Tanev, is Tanev makes Edler look better then he is, for Tanev is always there to support Edler and his mistakes. Tanev is the perfect D pairing for someone who plays a more offensive style game, because Tanev is that calm cool stay at home defencemen. It's the same with Bieksa and Hamhuis, Bieksa wants to be that offensive D, but let's face it he's not a natural at it, but Hamhuis is the support player for him. I feel Edler should be that leader on the back end, he used to be, but he just isn't that same player anymore. Ideally the player I would want is Shea Weber, but it's obviously easier said then done, but he is the type of player who would be perfect he's just that damn good at everything. If I had to pick a trade with someone for a short term period, say for playoffs, who would also have some trade value in the off season if need be, would be Mike Green. Washington would like to free up a bit of salary on their back end, taking Edler would be 1Mill less for them, yes we would be paying 1M more, but I think for the price and the return for that offense on the back end would pay off.

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Having two players the calibre of the Sedins on the same team and peaking at the same time is pretty rare.

Crosby, Malkin

Lemuix-Jagr

We are like Pittsburgh, we need another superstar tandem to keep the seats filled. It's actually less about a cup and more about superstars and a competitive team to have a chance for it in Vancouver. Like that way we don't need a cup and can still enjoy our team.

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