JamesB Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 While we are waiting for the season to start up after the all-star break it is worth thinking about next year. Can the Canucks improve and, if so, how? The most important players on the team are mostly veterans who are already showing age-related decline. They are still very good, but not as good as they were during their peak performance years. This includes the Sedins, Vrbata, Hamhuis, Miller, Burrows, and Bieksa. The other key player on the team is Edler, who is at the age where he should be pretty much at his peak. He is having an excellent year and it is hard to see how he could improve much next year. Higgins and Hansen are also unlikely to improve any further given their ages. This means the core of the team will be getting worse next year, not better. And the Canucks have very little cap room. My current estimate is that the cap will rise to 71 million next year (2 million more than this year.) Bettman's most recent estimate was 73 million but that was based on an 88 cent dollar. Right now 71 million looks more likely. The Canucks are close to the cap already and Tanev will probably take up the entire increase in the cap as I think he will go from 2 million to 4 million for a long term deal. That means the Canucks will probably not have room to even sign their existing RFAs and bring back their UFAs (Richardson and Matthias). The RFAs to consider (aside from Tanev) include Corrado, Vey, Sbisa, Stanton, and Weber. They will all want at least a small raise and that burns up all available cap room. So there is no money for free agents. The prospects do not look ready to help. It looks like Shinkaruk and Gaunce will need another year in Utica. It is time for Jensen to show he can play in the NHL but it is hard for me to see him as more than a marginal bottom six forward at this stage. And Virtanen is a great prospect and McCann is a very good prospect, but look for both of them to be back in junior next year (and both should be on the Canadian world junior team). And Cassels will be in Utica next year. That leaves improvement of the current young guys as the only plausible source of improvement. That means Horvat, Vey, Kassian, Corrado, Tanev, and maybe we still count Sbisa as young. Horvat will continue to develop and should be a solid 3C next year. Tanev is already good but I do not see a lot of room for further improvement. The others are all question marks. Bottom line: I am not optimistic about next season, although 2 years down the road might be a lot better as Virtanen, McCann, Cassels, Shinkaruk, Gaunce and maybe Jensen might all contribute by then. Anyone have a more optimistic picture for next year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronalds.Kenins41 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Honestly I just want some better prospects or our current prospects to support our core. If one of Shinkaruk, Gaunce, Jensen or Virtanen can make the team it will begin the process of transitioning our old core to the new one. One thing we have to remember with Jensen is that he was on our AHL team that kept moving and with our old AHL coach. Despite what everyone is saying about him I am optimistic about his future. By the end of this year I feel he should be ready and should get a shot next season. I haven't given all hope on the Sedins just yet, just that they need to be the second liners or have a bit of pressure off them so we can succeed. I think we can make another run with our prospects supporting the core like we did in the 02/03 and 06/07 seasons. But it is a few years away and I am not too optimistic about next season. Next year will be the year to develop our prospects like this year is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HC20.0 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If we get youth, whether in out own system or by trade, that can make the jump, then we can improve dramatically. Also another Top 4 D to push Bieksa to the 3rd pairing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm expecting a year or 2 of not improving followed by a resurgence. Gradually exit the Sedins and the main core and say hello to the younsters and a few new faces signed/traded into the lineup. The important players like Edler and Hamhuis will likely stay as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronalds.Kenins41 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm expecting a year or 2 of not improving followed by a resurgence. Gradually exit the Sedins and the main core and say hello to the younsters and a few new faces signed/traded into the lineup. The important players like Edler and Hamhuis will likely stay as well. I think Edler and Tanev likely stay and Hamhuis goes. Edler and Tanev have potential to be a great pairing that we can build our next core around. They haven't been perfect but they are still learning at this stage and we saw how good they can be in the philly game when they were at their best shutting down Voracek and Giroux(both are in the top 5 in scoring and only 4 times this season has a team held both of them pointless). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
desiboynux4lifee******* Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Edler Tanev Franson Hamuis Sang and Corrado ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think Edler and Tanev likely stay and Hamhuis goes. Edler and Tanev have potential to be a great pairing that we can build our next core around. They haven't been perfect but they are still learning at this stage and we saw how good they can be in the philly game when they were at their best shutting down Voracek and Giroux(both are in the top 5 in scoring and only 4 times this season has a team held both of them pointless). Yeah, I forgot about Tanev. It's been pretty evident that Hamhuis' play is a big part of our defense. I'm not convinced they'd let him off that easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesB Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah, I forgot about Tanev. It's been pretty evident that Hamhuis' play is a big part of our defense. I'm not convinced they'd let him off that easily. Given the style of game Hamhuis plays, given that defencemen normally peak later and last longer than forwards, and given his current age (just turned 32) he should have at least three more solid years after this year. He should definitely still be an important part of the picture when the young guys (Virtanent, Horvat, etc.) are starting to emerge as big-time players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I think Benning will aim to improve the current roster. Next year two of the big dogs in the West, Chicago and LA, will be taking steps back due to cap issues. Here's who they have to re-sign (or, possibly lose): Chicago - Saad, Richards, Oduya, Kruger, Rozsival, Rundblad, Erixon L.A. - Williams, Toffoli, Stoll, Pearson, Regehr, Clifford, Nolan, Shore Even if L.A. can dump most of Richards' contract, things are going to be tight. Toffoli is due a BIG raise. As is Saad for Chicago. Also, both teams have a high profile player becoming UFA the following year - Seabrook and Kopitar. With the Canadian dollar likely in the lower range for the whole season - including when season ticket renewals are being done - the cap for 2016/17 will be an even bigger concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As for how Benning will improve the team with limited cap space, the name that jumps off the page is Kevin Bieksa. Great guy, and good player, but not really worth the cap hit. If Corrado can come in and prove he's ready for the bottom-pairing with spot duty on the second pair, Bieksa becomes very redundant. But the question is, will he accept a trade? And the second question is, will he accept a trade to the kind of team that could still use Bieksa at that cap hit? The second name is Chris Higgins. Either Vey, Jensen, or possibly Virtanen should be ready for that spot next year. That sheds another 1.5-2 million (covering Tanev's raise). The other name is Burrows. But he still plays a key role on this team. I don't think moving him would make the team better. Plus he'd be hard to move, with the NTC and salary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dogbyte Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Dump as many veterans as we can. JB needs to upgrade the scoring and defence. I have faith that he can continue the excellent work he did last summer and implement phase 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LOL_dre Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As for how Benning will improve the team with limited cap space, the name that jumps off the page is Kevin Bieksa. Great guy, and good player, but not really worth the cap hit. If Corrado can come in and prove he's ready for the bottom-pairing with spot duty on the second pair, Bieksa becomes very redundant. But the question is, will he accept a trade? And the second question is, will he accept a trade to the kind of team that could still use Bieksa at that cap hit? The second name is Chris Higgins. Either Vey, Jensen, or possibly Virtanen should be ready for that spot next year. That sheds another 1.5-2 million (covering Tanev's raise). The other name is Burrows. But he still plays a key role on this team. I don't think moving him would make the team better. Plus he'd be hard to move, with the NTC and salary. Just curious if you noticed that all the players you listed as being able to replace Chris Higgins are right wingers where Higgins is a left winger. Ultimately it might have to be Hansen that has to get moved and not Higgins. Anyway the team will be better next year with the development of our young players of course our rookies Hovart, Vey, and Corrado should get better. But remember Sabisa, Stanton, Tanev, and Kassian are all in their mid 20's and still have a lot of potential to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apollo Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's tough to improve the year after u win a cup. So I don't c much improving next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Followed by: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I voted prospects but the single biggest thing that would improve this team would be an offensive D to play with Edler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-DLC- Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm not done with this year yet....and, much of how that plays out will likely determine next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanGnome Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As for how Benning will improve the team with limited cap space, the name that jumps off the page is Kevin Bieksa. Great guy, and good player, but not really worth the cap hit. If Corrado can come in and prove he's ready for the bottom-pairing with spot duty on the second pair, Bieksa becomes very redundant. But the question is, will he accept a trade? And the second question is, will he accept a trade to the kind of team that could still use Bieksa at that cap hit? The second name is Chris Higgins. Either Vey, Jensen, or possibly Virtanen should be ready for that spot next year. That sheds another 1.5-2 million (covering Tanev's raise). The other name is Burrows. But he still plays a key role on this team. I don't think moving him would make the team better. Plus he'd be hard to move, with the NTC and salary. I would argue that Burrows is very tradeable, when you compare him to the likes of Mike Richards, strictly speaking from a performance/dollar ratio. I doubt Burrows is moved this season, but should he keep up his solid play this year, and into next year I could see him moved at the trade deadline next season. It really all depends on how much internal pressure there is from young guys in the system. There are no incumbents on this team, and believe me, Benning wants to flush out the old core sooner than later and put his mark on this team. This is still very much Burke's team, even 10 years later. Nonis and Gillis never really put their mark on the team (Luongo aside, that was a gift from Keenan), they simply maintained what was already here and added complimentary pieces, too scared to make it "their team". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesB Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 As for how Benning will improve the team with limited cap space, the name that jumps off the page is Kevin Bieksa. Great guy, and good player, but not really worth the cap hit. If Corrado can come in and prove he's ready for the bottom-pairing with spot duty on the second pair, Bieksa becomes very redundant. But the question is, will he accept a trade? And the second question is, will he accept a trade to the kind of team that could still use Bieksa at that cap hit? The second name is Chris Higgins. Either Vey, Jensen, or possibly Virtanen should be ready for that spot next year. That sheds another 1.5-2 million (covering Tanev's raise). The other name is Burrows. But he still plays a key role on this team. I don't think moving him would make the team better. Plus he'd be hard to move, with the NTC and salary. Good points, but I thought Bieksa already said he is not moving when asked about that possibility by a reporter. I could see him maybe going to to Toronto or Ottawa since he is from Ontario but that it is pretty small set and neither team is a likely buyer. I agree that Burrows is probably not moveable at his cap hit. I think Higgins, who only has a limited NTC, is likely to be traded to clear some cap space. Given his cap hit, the Canucks will not get much for him, however. I would be delighted with a second round pick. But his 2.5 million cap hit is not too bad given that he is very good on the PK and can play shutdown and can provide some secondary scoring. So he probably can be moved if the Canucks don't ask for much in return. I think the Canucks will need that cap space if they want to re-sign Matthias and/or Richardson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesB Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Just curious if you noticed that all the players you listed as being able to replace Chris Higgins are right wingers where Higgins is a left winger. Ultimately it might have to be Hansen that has to get moved and not Higgins. Anyway the team will be better next year with the development of our young players of course our rookies Hovart, Vey, and Corrado should get better. But remember Sabisa, Stanton, Tanev, and Kassian are all in their mid 20's and still have a lot of potential to improve. I would like to believe this but the evidence indicates that players do not usually improve much once they get to their mid-20s (24 and on) although defencemen have a slightly later trajectory. On average players improve a little between 24 and 27 (which is the typical age of peak performance for forwards), but most of the improvement is early. Typically there are big improvements each year from draft age (18) up to 22 or 23. Anyone who is good enough to make the NHL at 19 (like Horvat) probably has a bright future. However, Tanev and Stanton are 25 and Sbisa is 24, so it is very optimistic to expect a lot of improvement, even though they are defencemen. It looks likely that Tanev is close to his ceiling -- which makes him a sold top 4 defensively oriented defencemen. Stanton's ceiling looks to me like a solid defensively oriented 3rd pairing role. Sbisa is a question mark. He would have been 7th man in Anaheim this year. On the Canucks he struggled early, then became pretty good as a 3rd pairing guy, but really struggled trying to play top 4 while Hamhuis was out. Third pairing looks like his ceiling to me. The best bet on D is a top 4 of Edler, Tanev, Hamhuis and Corrado. As a group they should have a good second half and could be slightly better next year given that Corrado should continue to develop. I admit that some guys are late bloomers (like the Sedins) but that is unusual. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckylager Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 For me it's a combo of the first two options - young roster players continue to develop and a few prospects move up - Jensen, Shink and hopefully Gaunce can make the jump (Corrado too, but I hope he sticks this season, mentored by Hammer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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