Do the Canucks Really Have 3 Third Lines

[JamesB]

It is been repeated many times on CDC that "the Canucks do not have a 2nd line. They have three 3rd lines." (I admit that I have repeated that statement at least twice myself.)

It is also occasionally stated that the Canucks do not a have legitimate first line -- that the Sedin line is nothing more than a good second line, followed by three 3rd lines.

Do these statements stand up to analysis? I think the answer is no.

Here is what I did. I went to NHL,com and downloaded all the scoring data for forwards for this year. After dropping players who played less than 20 games (small sample issues) I ordered the players by points per game (PPG).

There are 30 teams in the league. This means that at any given time there are 90 first line players. Of course players move across lines, but the top 90 players in PPG should give us a good idea of what we can reasonably expect from first liners. Similarly, the players ranked 91 though 180 should give us reasonable expectations for 2nd liners, etc.

For each line category I found the median PPG (i.e. the PPG number exactly in the middle) For example, the median PPG for first liners is the player ranked 45 in PPG and that PPG is 0.78. I will call anyone above the median a good player for that line. I also found the 80th percentile (i.e. the guy who is ahead of 20% of the players in that line category). I will call anyone above the 80th percentile a "legitimate" first liner or whatever. I call the bottom 20% for a given line category "marginal" for that line category. Here are the results.

1st line:

Good first liners have a PPG of 0.78 or above

Legitimate first liners have a PPG of 0.68 or above

Marginal first liners have a PPG between 0.63 and 0.68.

2nd line:

Good second liners have a PPG above 0.55

Legitimate second liners have a PPG above 0.49

Marginal second liners have a PPG in the range of 0.45 to 0.49

Good 3rd liners are 0.38 or above and legitimate 3rd liners are .34 or above.

For 4th liners we are looking at a median of 0.23 and an 80th percentile of 0.15

Here is how the Canucks stack up.

The Sedins have PPGs of 0.85 and Vrbata is at 0.78. All three are good first liners by any reasonable measure. They are not just a legitimate first line. They are a good first line. When we put Burrows on the line instead of Vrbata, the line as a whole is still a good first line as their average PPG is 0.68.

It is just flat out wrong to say the Sedin line is not a legitimate 1st line.

We have gotten spoiled because a few years ago the Sedins line (with Burrows) was not just good but the best line in the league for 2 years based on either PPG or plus/minus (when Henrik and Daniel won the NHL scoring title in consecutive years). They are not that good any more. But they are still good.

Our second liners are as follows. Burrows has a PPG of 0.49, Bonino has a PPG of 0.48, and Higgins has a PPG of 0.45. This makes them marginal second liners. Not great, but better than a lot of people think, If we put Vrbata in for Burrows the line as a whole is a legitimate second line.

As for bottom 6 guys, we have Richardson at 0.44, Vey at 0.4, Matthias at 0.38, Kassian is at 0.37, Hansen at 0.36, Horvat at 0.35 and Dorsett at 0.31.

Except for Dorsett these guys would all qualify as "legitimate 3rd liners". And Dorsett is close and would be a marginal 3rd liners or very good 4th liners. (And having a 19 year old like Horvat doing this well and playing excellent defense is very encouraging.)

So an accurate assessment of Canuck forwards is that

1. We have good first line

2. We have a marginal or legitimate second line (depending on where Vrbata plays).

3. We have two legitimate third lines.

Convenient rules of thumb as as follows.

Roughly speaking, we are looking for about 3/4 of a point per game for first liners, half a point per game for second liners, a third of a point per game for 3rd liners, and a quarter of a point for 4th liners. With average defence and goaltending a team that can do that should make the playoffs.

If the Canucks continue at their current pace they should make the playoffs (barely).

[Gaudette Celly]

So an accurate assessment of Canuck forwards is that

1. We have good first line

2. We have a marginal or legitimate second line (depending on where Vrbata plays).

3. We have two legitimate third lines.

Sounds like... pretty much three third lines.

[Dral]

Sounds like... pretty much three third lines.

/thread

[Ghostsof1915]

We had 3 fourth lines a month ago the way people were talking about the players.

[BanTSN]

Currently? Yes. Because Horvat.

The question is more do we have a 1st line, and with the visible slowdown of the Sedins here, that is becoming more and more uncertain.

[Phil_314]

Sounds like... pretty much three third lines.

What's wrong with three 3rd lines that can all score and be interchangeable anyways? The lack of a distinct gap in talent means all four lines can be expected to step up and deliver. Of course they don't always but when they do it's excellent scoring depth. It'd be tough for Willie to always find combos that work but when they work they can be good like it's been recently.

Show the team some love, y'all

[VanIsleCanucks]

Does it really matter, I'm just happy to see the young guys contributing, things should improve even more over the next few years as the sedins move to the second line.

[Nuxfanabroad]

It's fine, as it's currently trending.

Then if opportunity permits(at draft, camp, or in-season), you incorporate more youth/speed/size/character whenever possible.

[darkpoet]

Do the Canucks Really Have 3 Third Lines

At even strength the team has 5 players on the ice at a given time.

If they work together the odds of being successful increase dramatically.

Thats all i give a # about.

[Jiggs50]

Sounds like... pretty much three third lines.

End thread haha.

[-AJ-]

Under Willie D's system, it seems like we have one first line, and three "other lines". Quite often, if they play well, the "4th line" will get just as much time as the "2nd line". WD tends to somewhat dispel the notion of lines, aside from a first line.

[Tragoedia]

What's good is we still have 4 strong lines even with Richardson and Bonino out (our #2 and #3 centres). In fact, we have played as well as we have all season the past two games without them (although the PK suffered). This gives us room for trade where we can upgrade a position. We can offer two players and possibly a mid level prospect to improve something like top 4 defence or a scoring winger. That kind of trade wouldn't net us an elite player by any stretch, but could get us a player who fills a need better than a couple are currently able.

That said, we don't want to dismantle our depth out of fear we have too many players. We don't need marginal skill players, like Ebbett (although he was a great little guy who put all his effort in), centring our 2nd line if a centre falls to injury.

[khay]

Sounds like... pretty much three third lines.

No, the OP stated that depending on where Vrbata plays, we have a legitimate second line. Vey has been moving around the lineup, I think that by the end of the season, there is a very good chance that the line of Vey, Vrbata, and Bonino/Higgins is a legitimate to good second line.

[JamesB]

No, the OP stated that depending on where Vrbata plays, we have a legitimate second line. Vey has been moving around the lineup, I think that by the end of the season, there is a very good chance that the line of Vey, Vrbata, and Bonino/Higgins is a legitimate to good second line.

Thanks very much. I was going to say something similar, but this is better. If Vey continues to improve he could be a legitimate top 6 (second line) player by the end of the year and with Vrbata and Bonino or Higgins I agree that line could be good.

This is probably the kind of development the Canucks were hoping for when they traded a second round pick for Vey.

[Peaches]

Excellent post sir. Well researched and well thought-out. +1

[Bo.Horvat53]

If Vey can't play Right wing, one line combo I would love to see is Bonino-Vey-Vrbata.

Since Bones is a left handed shot, he'd be perfect there. Higgins IMO is becoming very expendable.

[nomz]

If Vey can't play Right wing, one line combo I would love to see is Bonino-Vey-Vrbata.

Since Bones is a left handed shot, he'd be perfect there. Higgins IMO is becoming very expendable.

I think Higgins' contribution to the line is underrated and goes mostly unnoticed. Although he doesn't contribute much offensively, his excellent two-way play takes a lot of the defensive burden off of Vey and Vrbata so they can more easily go on the rush. And Higgins is also one of our best forecheckers.

Bonino's better offensively, but his defence and physical game isn't that strong compared to Higgins and may decrease the line's overall effectiveness.

[Time Lord]

The question is more do we have a 1st line, and with the visible slowdown of the Sedins here, that is becoming more and more uncertain.

Did you even read the first post?

[Caboose]

Currently? Yes. Because Horvat.

The question is more do we have a 1st line, and with the visible slowdown of the Sedins here, that is becoming more and more uncertain.

You're the type of guy who reads only the headline and acts as if he is an expert on the contents of the article.

[etsen3]

Good analysis by the OP. However, the goal is to be a Stanley Cup contender, so it's not enough to be average. However, it's a transition period for the team, as long as we're trending upwards I'm happy.