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Canucks can make playoffs with .500 record for remaining games


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http://vansunsportsblogs.com/2015/02/19/big-numbers-canucks-could-make-playoffs-with-500-hockey-more-loser-points-please/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

Every now and then we like to take a break from all the words and just post some numbers. And some words describing the numbers, as otherwise it would just be a whole bunch of numbers with no context, which would be really weird. Big Numbers is a weekly feature on Pass it to Bulis in which we identify the numbers and statistics that really matter or, frequently, the ones that don't matter at all but are still pretty interesting.

Statistics are gathered from NHL.com, War-on-Ice.com, Puckalytics.com, HockeyAnalysis.com, BehindtheNet.ca, and elsewhere.

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22 The Canucks have picked up 22 of a possible 42 points in 2015, which is pretty much the epitome of .500 hockey. You'd think, in the tough Pacific Division, that would be enough for them to lose ground, right? Not even. On January 1, the Canucks sat tied for third in the Pacific Division with the San Jose Sharks and Calgary Flames at 45 points after a loss to the Los Angeles Kings (which let the Kings leapfrog all three). But at the time of this writing, after alternating wins and losses for a month and a half, they're tied for second in the division with Calgary, three points clear of the Kings, and one clear of the Sharks.

93 Supposing the Canucks never break this string of inconsistency and just keep alternating wins and losses for the rest of the season, that means they'll pick up 26 points from their remaining 26 games, and finish the season with 93 points. Is that enough to make the playoffs? It was last year. The Dallas Stars took the final Wild Card spot with just 91 points.

89.8% If the above stat wasn't enough for you, here's one courtesy advanced math: the Canucks, at present, have a nearly 90% chance of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, the San Jose Sharks, just one point back of them, albeit in three more games, have just a 36% chance.

+11 The Canucks goal differential, once noted by Mike Babcock as the most telling team statistic. The better you are, the higher this number usually is. Now, Vancouver's isn't great. The Predators, Blues, and Blackhawks are all hovering around plus-40. But they're not in the Canucks division. In the Pacific, which sort of sucks, at least comparatively, Vancouver's goal differential is only two back of the Division-leader in the category: Calgary. Yes, the Canucks have a higher goal differential than the Ducks.

12 Of course, one thing to consider about the Canucks respectable goal differential is that it's propped up by a league-leading 12 empty-net goals. Strike those from the record and the Canucks are actually minus-1 in this all-important category. Fortunately, we don't have to strike those. And every team scores empty-netters. And the Canucks score the most because of an innovative coaching strategy.

3 Loser points for the Canucks, which can be either good or bad, depending on how you look at it. Supposing the Canucks miss the playoffs by one point, we're going to point to their inability to manage their losses. No other team in the West has so few loser points. But at the same time, a dearth of loser points means a high number of regulation and overtime wins, or ROW. And this is the first tiebreaker, which is good news if they end the year tied with someone else.

53.2% Adam Clendening's corsi through 8 games with the Canucks. It's very good. The top two Canucks are Henrik and Daniel Sedin, at 54.0 and 53.3, respectively. Then Clendening. Admittedly, eight games isn't much of a sample, but still its been a good eight games. Clendening isn't exactly being thrown to the wolves, competition-wise, but he's making the most of his icetime and his matchips, which is precisely what you want from a third-pairing guy.

13 Around Christmas, I noted that the Canucks could have as many as six 20-goal scorers. Then they cooled down. By the time Radim Vrbata hit 20 goals two weeks ago, it looked as though he might be the only one. But Daniel Sedin, Shawn Matthias and Alex Burrows have come on since then, and now, all three could be close. Admittedly, not one of them is on pace for 20, but they're all on pace for 18 or 19, and with Burrows now playing with the Sedins, I'd suggest both Daniel and Burrows have a better shot than their goals per game average indicates.

5 The number of NHL teams that have yet to score a goal on a 5-on-3 power play this season. Guess why I've included this statistic: yes, it's because the Canucks are one of them. The other four are: New Jersey, Montreal, Boston and Arizona.

8 Fortunately, I've found a solution: give one of your players to the other team. That turns a 5-on-3 into a 4-on-4, and as luck would have it, that's where the Canucks are at their best. They've got eight 4-on-4 goals this season, which ties them for third in the NHL. Calgary has 12. Washington has 9.

Not that I would like to see the team go .500 the rest of the way but it's possible they still make the playoffs. Would end up 93 points. However, I believe with the competitiveness in the West, imo 94 will be the minimum needed to make the dance and 97 is a number I'd be really happy about if the Canucks end up with.

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TSN said this in November during American Thanksgiving.. All we had to do since then was to play .500 hockey to make it if the cutoff remained the same as last year

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Since the start of the season, I've been saying that the Canucks will be one of the wildcard teams in the west by season's end.

Yes. I've been a playoff believer from the start, because I've known all along that this team is capable of doing so. During the season, I've had my doubts about them making it for sure, but I think they will.

One of my other close friends is very knowledgable about the NHL as well, and at the beginning of October, we shook on a bet. If we make the playoffs, I get $100, but if we don't, it goes the other way...

Being a guy who's followed this team intently since I was eight, I've obviously gained more and more knowledge over the years, but given everything that's happened this summer and the catastrophe that took place in the latter half of last season (something I put no stock into given the coaching, management, and drama circumstances), I've always known that we're a good enough team that's capable of making the playoffs. Heck, even though we sucked major ass in the second half of last season, we were only a few points from a playoff spot.

And hey, even if we don't make the playoffs and I lose the bet, I will still have a lot of pride in myself because I'll know that we came damn close when many NHL fans thought that we were a team that was an indisputable contestant to draft in the top-10. :) This team's goal since the start of the season was to make the playoffs, and if they don't make it by a hair, I won't be very upset other than the fact that I'd lose a hunna. The way our team has gone about its business this season, no matter where we'll finish, I couldn't be more proud of our team! We're headed in the right direction, trust me.

Also, enough of this "I hope we miss the playoffs because we'll get a higher draft pick" bull crap... because even if we do miss the playoffs, our draft position at most will be affected by just a few spots, and definitely not an amount that's significant enough for us that gets us a pick in the top-10. Where we stand, this draft is so balls deep that people shouldn't be concerned about a few spots. If anything, we should be worrying more about the quantity of our draft picks rather than the quality of them (quality as in a few spots difference).

Remain competitive while keeping an eye on the future, and imbed your NHL-ready prospects into a winning environment. THAT is how it's done biatches. THAT is the professional way. Not making an ass of yourself in a Canadian market like Edmonton and now, degradingly, Toronto...

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Huh ... not following you logic there bro. Am I slow? Don't you need to play better than .500 in round 2, 3, and 4?

Haha yeah I messed that up

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It's interesting that the schedule up to the deadline features teams we don't care about, but after is a series of teams we do care about. We face the Kings thrice, SJ twice and Anaheim post-deadline. Throw 2 games vs Winnipeg in there too.

Bad time for the roadtrip, methinks.

If you're scared, go to church.
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Huh ... not following you logic there bro. Am I slow? Don't you need to play better than .500 in round 2, 3, and 4?

He's wrong lol. You need to win the first game of each series win going .500.

Since each series is a closed event you'd essentially need to go 0.571 over the course of the playoffs, spanning four series.

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If you're scared, go to church.

Don't need church, because Bo Horvat saves.

However, that's a lot to put on a 19yr old kid.

I think you missed the point though. The Canucks could kick the arses of these eastern teams that don't give a crap about the Canucks, think they're contenders because of that, and then have reality come crashing down on them when they face the teams back home who do care about the Canucks.

The updated playoff format is fairly important. Against this division we are not good. Haven't been all year. So how we become contenders based on the record outside of it is a mystery to me. But I think Jim and Trev see this too. It's a process.

We shouldn't repeat Derek Roy is all. K-Con is probably one of those guys further along that Benning could pick up tomorrow and we'd applaud loudly if he wasn't already Canuck property once.

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it's not making playoffs that scares me; its what the heck they do in them. Nashville scares me, so please don't play them in the 1st round. Maybe this team has a chance against the Ducks, since the kesler factor might come into play and motivate the Sedins? lol I don't know! It's a deep draft that's all.

Anything can happen in the playoffs.

Edmonton made it to the final as a 8 seed

Philly made the final as a 7 seed

LA and NJ were 8 and 6 seeds respectively

LA and Chicago last year were in the WCF and were both 3rd in their respective divisions

You gotta have faith brother!

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